Housing Analysis

[eyephone]

At Least Half of Homes ?Seriously Underwater? in These Zip Codes

A decade after the recession, more than one in 11 mortgaged properties in the U.S. is considered "seriously underwater," according to the year-end home equity report by ATTOM Data Solutions.

This dreaded classification applies when 25 percent or greater is owed than the home?s market value -- a loan-to-value ratio of at least 125 percent in industry jargon. More than five million U.S. properties fit the bill.

In 27 zip codes, with a minimum of 2,500 mortgaged properties in each, more than half are "seriously underwater."

At the end of 2018, the most "seriously underwater" zip code was Trenton?s 08611 -- in New Jersey?s capital -- where 70.3 percent of mortgaged homes were valued at $100 or less for every $125 owed. The St. Louis zip code 63137 follows at 64.8 percent. Zip codes 60426 in Harvey, Illinois (62.3 percent); 38106 in Memphis, Tennessee (60.5 percent) and 61104 in Rockford, Illinois (59.6 percent) round out the worst five.

Additionally, the cities of Chicago, Cleveland, Atlantic City, Detroit and Virginia Beach show pockets of severely distressed mortgaged housing stock.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...homes-seriously-underwater-in-these-zip-codes

My comment: Does it need to get worst to get better? Keep in mind the area code is not LA or Orange County. But it shows the demand for housing throughout parts of the US.

 

[meccos12]

I thought I have no credibility so why ask me to expound? 

You dont.  However I am not asking for your opinions on housing.  I am just asking what you are still trying to determine.  Only you can tell us that. 

 

[usctrojancpa]

At Least Half of Homes ?Seriously Underwater? in These Zip Codes

A decade after the recession, more than one in 11 mortgaged properties in the U.S. is considered "seriously underwater," according to the year-end home equity report by ATTOM Data Solutions.

This dreaded classification applies when 25 percent or greater is owed than the home?s market value -- a loan-to-value ratio of at least 125 percent in industry jargon. More than five million U.S. properties fit the bill.

In 27 zip codes, with a minimum of 2,500 mortgaged properties in each, more than half are "seriously underwater."

At the end of 2018, the most "seriously underwater" zip code was Trenton?s 08611 -- in New Jersey?s capital -- where 70.3 percent of mortgaged homes were valued at $100 or less for every $125 owed. The St. Louis zip code 63137 follows at 64.8 percent. Zip codes 60426 in Harvey, Illinois (62.3 percent); 38106 in Memphis, Tennessee (60.5 percent) and 61104 in Rockford, Illinois (59.6 percent) round out the worst five.

Additionally, the cities of Chicago, Cleveland, Atlantic City, Detroit and Virginia Beach show pockets of severely distressed mortgaged housing stock.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...homes-seriously-underwater-in-these-zip-codes

My comment: Does it need to get worst to get better? Keep in mind the area code is not LA or Orange County. But it shows the demand for housing throughout parts of the US.

Hasn't Memphis been one of the hotter real estate markets in the US the past few years?  This provides proof that a city like Irvine (which has a high average % of down payment, especially with so many cash buyers) has been more resistant to large price declines than cities where the average % of down payment is significantly lower.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I thought I have no credibility so why ask me to expound? 

You dont.  However I am not asking for your opinions on housing.  I am just asking what you are still trying to determine.  Only you can tell us that.

Again, on this forum, your credibility is more suspect than mine.

You?re the one who first came on TI asking for everyone?s opinions and now you are some data expert regurgitating Steve Thomas who doesn?t exactly have a great track record and I?m surprised eyephone hasn?t called his articles suspect due to his ties to real estate.

Tell the truth, you?re not interested in my answer, you are just digging for more fake ammo so you can show eyephone how cool you are by backing him up.

At least you?re not going back to your default strawman accusation counter considering how much of that you have been throwing around yourself.

Just give it a rest already.

 

[meccos12]

Again, on this forum, your credibility is more suspect than mine.

You?re the one who first came on TI asking for everyone?s opinions and now you are some data expert regurgitating Steve Thomas who doesn?t exactly have a great track record and I?m surprised eyephone hasn?t called his articles suspect due to his ties to real estate.

Tell the truth, you?re not interested in my answer, you are just digging for more fake ammo so you can show eyephone how cool you are by backing him up.

My track record so far has been stellar compared to yours. 
You minimize the data I posted, yet that data was spot on and the reason why I was able to call the slowdown months before while you were pondering seasonality (LOL).  The truth is you didnt see the slowdown until it hit you in the face and the most ridiculous thing is that you still question it.  I asked what you are still trying to "determine" because you imply you are still not convinced of the slowdown.  If so, just say it plainly instead of constantly making implications and dancing around subject without taking a firm stance.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Again, on this forum, your credibility is more suspect than mine.

You?re the one who first came on TI asking for everyone?s opinions and now you are some data expert regurgitating Steve Thomas who doesn?t exactly have a great track record and I?m surprised eyephone hasn?t called his articles suspect due to his ties to real estate.

Tell the truth, you?re not interested in my answer, you are just digging for more fake ammo so you can show eyephone how cool you are by backing him up.

My track record so far has been stellar compared to yours. 
You minimize the data I posted, yet that data was spot on and the reason why I was able to call the slowdown months before while you were pondering seasonality (LOL).  The truth is you didnt see the slowdown until it hit you in the face and the most ridiculous thing is that you still question it.  I asked what you are still trying to "determine" because you imply you are still not convinced of the slowdown.  If so, just say it plainly instead of constantly making implications and dancing around subject without taking a firm stance.

Oh so now *you* were able to call the slowdown? I thought eyephone gets all the credit for that.

Do you want a trophy?

Next you are going to claim credit for interest rates dropping.

What do you like to say? Oh yeah...

LOL

 

[meccos12]

Oh so now *you* were able to call the slowdown? I thought eyephone gets all the credit for that.

Do you want a trophy?

Yes Eyephone, myself and few others were the few who called it early.  Read any of these threads and it should be very clear.  Here, I linked one thread to help you remember. https://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,16495.0.html

However.  Lets not change the subject.  I would still like to know what you are still trying to "determine".

 

[eyephone]

?Toll Brothers Sales Event Gives Home Buyers Savings Where They Want It Most

Toll Brothers, the nation?s leading builder of luxury homes, is set to kick off its inaugural Built-For-You Sales Event, running Saturday, January 26 through Sunday, February 18.

Toll Brothers communities throughout the country invite home buyers to share their priorities for the home of their dreams. Sales representatives will then craft an incentive package with those priorities in mind.?
https://tolltalks.tollbrothers.com/...-home-buyers-savings-where-they-want-it-most/

My comment: #1 high end builder offering discounts. It must mean something. I give a lot props to Toll Brothers for being aware of the current market conditions.

It?s worth a try. If you are interested in a newly built house ask ANY HOMEBUILDER to give a discount or upgrades. If they already offer discounts ask for more! 

(Think of it this way. It?s like sales. You won?t always close the deals. But why not give it a try.)

One more thing. Don?t be afraid to walk away.

 

[usctrojancpa]

?Toll Brothers Sales Event Gives Home Buyers Savings Where They Want It Most

Toll Brothers, the nation?s leading builder of luxury homes, is set to kick off its inaugural Built-For-You Sales Event, running Saturday, January 26 through Sunday, February 18.

Toll Brothers communities throughout the country invite home buyers to share their priorities for the home of their dreams. Sales representatives will then craft an incentive package with those priorities in mind.?
https://tolltalks.tollbrothers.com/...-home-buyers-savings-where-they-want-it-most/

My comment: #1 high end builder offering discounts. It must mean something. I give a lot props to Toll Brothers for being aware of the current market conditions.

It?s worth a try. If you are interested in a newly built house ask ANY HOMEBUILDER to give a discount or upgrades. If they already offer discounts ask for more! 

(Think of it this way. It?s like sales. You won?t always make a close the deal, but why not give it a try.)

One more thing. Don?t be afraid to walk away.

+1  As the old saying goes, you never get what you don't ask for.

 

[ucoc]

?Toll Brothers Sales Event Gives Home Buyers Savings Where They Want It Most

Toll Brothers, the nation?s leading builder of luxury homes, is set to kick off its inaugural Built-For-You Sales Event, running Saturday, January 26 through Sunday, February 18.

Toll Brothers communities throughout the country invite home buyers to share their priorities for the home of their dreams. Sales representatives will then craft an incentive package with those priorities in mind.?
https://tolltalks.tollbrothers.com/...-home-buyers-savings-where-they-want-it-most/

My comment: #1 high end builder offering discounts. It must mean something. I give a lot props to Toll Brothers for being aware of the current market conditions.

It?s worth a try. If you are interested in a newly built house ask ANY HOMEBUILDER to give a discount or upgrades. If they already offer discounts ask for more! 

(Think of it this way. It?s like sales. You won?t always make a close the deal, but why not give it a try.)

One more thing. Don?t be afraid to walk away.

+1  As the old saying goes, you never get what you don't ask for.

Thanks for the information. Should our realtor ask for a discount or upgrades or are we on our own when asking such things?

 

[usctrojancpa]

?Toll Brothers Sales Event Gives Home Buyers Savings Where They Want It Most

Toll Brothers, the nation?s leading builder of luxury homes, is set to kick off its inaugural Built-For-You Sales Event, running Saturday, January 26 through Sunday, February 18.

Toll Brothers communities throughout the country invite home buyers to share their priorities for the home of their dreams. Sales representatives will then craft an incentive package with those priorities in mind.?
https://tolltalks.tollbrothers.com/...-home-buyers-savings-where-they-want-it-most/

My comment: #1 high end builder offering discounts. It must mean something. I give a lot props to Toll Brothers for being aware of the current market conditions.

It?s worth a try. If you are interested in a newly built house ask ANY HOMEBUILDER to give a discount or upgrades. If they already offer discounts ask for more! 

(Think of it this way. It?s like sales. You won?t always make a close the deal, but why not give it a try.)

One more thing. Don?t be afraid to walk away.

+1  As the old saying goes, you never get what you don't ask for.

Thanks for the information. Should our realtor ask for a discount or upgrades or are we on our own when asking such things?

Either you or your realtor can ask for the discounts and/or credits.  The sales people will then submit it to their counterparts in the corporate office and come back with an approval or a counter. I'd say always ask for more than what you are really willing to accept so that way you have a little room to negotiate with the builder. 

 

[meccos12]

I can't make any determinations until summer rolls around.

Although the data seems to say this time is different, predictions based on data has not always been right... especially when it comes to Irvine.

Still wondering what you are trying to determine.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I can't make any determinations until summer rolls around.

Although the data seems to say this time is different, predictions based on data has not always been right... especially when it comes to Irvine.

Still wondering what you are trying to determine.

Still wondering why you can't understand my post.

 

[Liar Loan]

I can't make any determinations until summer rolls around.

Although the data seems to say this time is different, predictions based on data has not always been right... especially when it comes to Irvine.

Still wondering what you are trying to determine.

When Irvine home prices will crash by 40%.

 

[Mety]

meccos12 called the market top was last year and seems like it really is heading that direction since.

IHO's been saying it could've been seasonality, but Irvine home prices won't drop as much even if there were a recession thus buy if when you find a home you want no matter when.

Are these what you guys are pretty much saying?

Please add if there is anything missing so we or I can understand better. Thanks.

 

[Mety]

I can't make any determinations until summer rolls around.

Although the data seems to say this time is different, predictions based on data has not always been right... especially when it comes to Irvine.

Still wondering what you are trying to determine.

When Irvine home prices will crash by 40%.

While that is a possibility, if Irvine homes drop by 40% then the surrounding areas will suffer more. That would be a huge national crisis. Nothing the president would be happy with no matter who.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

meccos12 called the market top was last year and seems like it really is heading that direction since.

IHO's been saying it could've been seasonality, but Irvine home prices won't drop as much even if there were a recession thus buy if when you find a home you want no matter when.

Are these what you guys are pretty much saying?

Please add if there is anything missing so we or I can understand better. Thanks.

Yeah, that's close enough. Not sure why meccos12 can't understand it.

 

[meccos12]

meccos12 called the market top was last year and seems like it really is heading that direction since.

IHO's been saying it could've been seasonality, but Irvine home prices won't drop as much even if there were a recession thus buy if when you find a home you want no matter when.

Are these what you guys are pretty much saying?

Please add if there is anything missing so we or I can understand better. Thanks.

I think that sums it up pretty clear.  The hilarious thing is that IHO still implying it is seasonal, despite all the data we have seen so far.  Atleast he is not refuting there is a slowdown anymore. 

 

[meccos12]

meccos12 called the market top was last year and seems like it really is heading that direction since.

IHO's been saying it could've been seasonality, but Irvine home prices won't drop as much even if there were a recession thus buy if when you find a home you want no matter when.

Are these what you guys are pretty much saying?

Please add if there is anything missing so we or I can understand better. Thanks.

Yeah, that's close enough. Not sure why meccos12 can't understand it.

Im not sure what it is I dont understand.  However what I dont understand is why you cant admit that there was a slowdown in housing.  I understand it may have been hard to see it several months ago, but by now even you should be able to see it. 

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Even for novice investors and homeowners KNOWS, that house can not sustain the 10 % increase years after years since bottom out 2012.

For instance this home, bought in 2014 https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/100-Fieldwood-92618/home/51682526 bought for a little over $ 1 Mil and after almost 5 years it is estimated at 1.5. So that's like 100K appreciation per year wowzer, so now here we are, are we going to slow down, shiat yeah, sherlock.