Housing Analysis

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meccos12 said:
Several people gave Eyephone crap for telling people to wait to purchase a house.  They said rates were climbing so any price declines would be washed out.  Some claimed there will be no price reductions, but rather price increases.  I realize hindsight is 20/20 but a 13.5% savings in 6 months seems worth it to me. 
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This *is* hindsight because eyephone didn't claim rates would go down as far as I know. His posts were about falling prices, not falling interest rates. I don't think anyone predicted rates would fall.

And that's a little dramatic, what people like me were saying was "What are you waiting for and for how long?".  My contention was if the predicted drops were only 5-10% it *may* not be worth the wait. And even if someone did buy in June, they could always refi now.

So are you saying people should buy now? Or still wait for some other unpredicted event?
 
meccos12 said:
Wellsfargo rates today for conforming 30 year were 4.375.  Several months ago they were 5.125.  This .75% difference in rates is significant as it basically means that you can afford 8.5% more house at 4.375% compared to 5.125%.  USCtrojan commented that price gains from first half of the year were about 5% which was basically lost by the end of the year.  Doing the math, a person who bought a house in June of 2018 would have paid 13.5% more for the exact same house compared to buying that house today. 

Several people gave Eyephone crap for telling people to wait to purchase a house.  They said rates were climbing so any price declines would be washed out.  Some claimed there will be no price reductions, but rather price increases.  I realize hindsight is 20/20 but a 13.5% savings in 6 months seems worth it to me.
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The way I see it why not call it out if we see it.
I have no conflict of interest.
 
But seriously, does anyone really wait because someone here said wait? It's a forum free to express opinions and observations, but you are an adult making your own decisions (except for that 15 year old guy YellowFever created). Did anyone really sell last year because I said "Sell now or get priced out forever?" If you did, GOOD JOB for making MAXROI!!




 
Mety said:
But seriously, does anyone really wait because someone here said wait? It's a forum free to express opinions and observations, but you are an adult making your own decisions (except for that 15 year old guy YellowFever created). Did anyone really sell last year because I said "Sell now or get priced out forever?" If you did, GOOD JOB for making MAXROI!!
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I think several people got max discounts on new homes. Another person or more bought houses at a max discount. In addition, I believe a person mentioned that he backed out of buying a home and that saved him big time. (I forgot the amount)

 
irvinehomeowner said:
meccos12 said:
Several people gave Eyephone crap for telling people to wait to purchase a house.  They said rates were climbing so any price declines would be washed out.  Some claimed there will be no price reductions, but rather price increases.  I realize hindsight is 20/20 but a 13.5% savings in 6 months seems worth it to me. 
Click to expand...

This *is* hindsight because eyephone didn't claim rates would go down as far as I know. His posts were about falling prices, not falling interest rates. I don't think anyone predicted rates would fall.

And that's a little dramatic, what people like me were saying was "What are you waiting for and for how long?".  My contention was if the predicted drops were only 5-10% it *may* not be worth the wait. And even if someone did buy in June, they could always refi now.

So are you saying people should buy now? Or still wait for some other unpredicted event?
Click to expand...

I think fortune11 kept saying the rates would fall.

How much does it cost to refi?

 
irvinehomeowner said:
This *is* hindsight because eyephone didn't claim rates would go down as far as I know. His posts were about falling prices, not falling interest rates. I don't think anyone predicted rates would fall.

And that's a little dramatic, what people like me were saying was "What are you waiting for and for how long?".  My contention was if the predicted drops were only 5-10% it *may* not be worth the wait. And even if someone did buy in June, they could always refi now.

So are you saying people should buy now? Or still wait for some other unpredicted event?
Click to expand...

Like I said before, I am not here to give advice but rather show data and facts.  Based on the data/fact people should make their own minds up depending on their own situations.  However, after only a few months, it seems pretty clear Eyephone's advice was right.  Yes, it hindsight now, but not a few months ago when he was giving advice. 

Oh and you dont just refi when rates go lower.  There are costs to refi that sometimes does not pan out in your favor. 

 
Mety said:
irvinehomeowner said:
meccos12 said:
Several people gave Eyephone crap for telling people to wait to purchase a house.  They said rates were climbing so any price declines would be washed out.  Some claimed there will be no price reductions, but rather price increases.  I realize hindsight is 20/20 but a 13.5% savings in 6 months seems worth it to me. 
Click to expand...

This *is* hindsight because eyephone didn't claim rates would go down as far as I know. His posts were about falling prices, not falling interest rates. I don't think anyone predicted rates would fall.

And that's a little dramatic, what people like me were saying was "What are you waiting for and for how long?".  My contention was if the predicted drops were only 5-10% it *may* not be worth the wait. And even if someone did buy in June, they could always refi now.

So are you saying people should buy now? Or still wait for some other unpredicted event?
Click to expand...

I think fortune11 kept saying the rates would fall.

How much does it cost to refi?
Click to expand...

yes he did. 

maybe SGIP could shed some lights on costs of refi.
 
meccos12 said:
irvinehomeowner said:
This *is* hindsight because eyephone didn't claim rates would go down as far as I know. His posts were about falling prices, not falling interest rates. I don't think anyone predicted rates would fall.

And that's a little dramatic, what people like me were saying was "What are you waiting for and for how long?".  My contention was if the predicted drops were only 5-10% it *may* not be worth the wait. And even if someone did buy in June, they could always refi now.

So are you saying people should buy now? Or still wait for some other unpredicted event?
Click to expand...

Like I said before, I am not here to give advice but rather show data and facts.  Based on the data/fact people should make their own minds up depending on their own situations.  However, after only a few months, it seems pretty clear Eyephone's advice was right.  Yes, it hindsight now, but not a few months ago when he was giving advice. 
Click to expand...

I think meccos12 is eyephone?s #1 fan. :)

Oh and you dont just refi when rates go lower.  There are costs to refi that sometimes does not pan out in your favor.
Click to expand...

Didn?t someone just post in the Dow thread they did a no cost refi?

And have you not followed ps9? He refi?d whenever he saw his shadow.

If your loan is 1% higher than rates are now, and costs are low, why not refi now?

I?ll look for fortune11?s magic 8-ball post but eyephone?s advice never mentioned rates.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
meccos12 said:
irvinehomeowner said:
This *is* hindsight because eyephone didn't claim rates would go down as far as I know. His posts were about falling prices, not falling interest rates. I don't think anyone predicted rates would fall.

And that's a little dramatic, what people like me were saying was "What are you waiting for and for how long?".  My contention was if the predicted drops were only 5-10% it *may* not be worth the wait. And even if someone did buy in June, they could always refi now.

So are you saying people should buy now? Or still wait for some other unpredicted event?
Click to expand...

Like I said before, I am not here to give advice but rather show data and facts.  Based on the data/fact people should make their own minds up depending on their own situations.  However, after only a few months, it seems pretty clear Eyephone's advice was right.  Yes, it hindsight now, but not a few months ago when he was giving advice. 
Click to expand...

I think meccos12 is eyephone?s #1 fan. :)

Oh and you dont just refi when rates go lower.  There are costs to refi that sometimes does not pan out in your favor.
Click to expand...

Didn?t someone just post in the Dow thread they did a no cost refi?

And have you not followed ps9? He refi?d whenever he saw his shadow.

If your loan is 1% higher than rates are now, and costs are low, why not refi now?

I?ll look for fortune11?s magic 8-ball post but eyephone?s advice never mentioned rates.
Click to expand...

Maybe SGIP can shed some light but no-fee refi is basically like 0% down auto loans.  You are giving up something to get that (usually some sort of rebate).

In my limited experience...you can get a better rate if you are willing to pay fees.
 
Irvinecommuter said:
irvinehomeowner said:
meccos12 said:
irvinehomeowner said:
This *is* hindsight because eyephone didn't claim rates would go down as far as I know. His posts were about falling prices, not falling interest rates. I don't think anyone predicted rates would fall.

And that's a little dramatic, what people like me were saying was "What are you waiting for and for how long?".  My contention was if the predicted drops were only 5-10% it *may* not be worth the wait. And even if someone did buy in June, they could always refi now.

So are you saying people should buy now? Or still wait for some other unpredicted event?
Click to expand...

Like I said before, I am not here to give advice but rather show data and facts.  Based on the data/fact people should make their own minds up depending on their own situations.  However, after only a few months, it seems pretty clear Eyephone's advice was right.  Yes, it hindsight now, but not a few months ago when he was giving advice. 
Click to expand...

I think meccos12 is eyephone?s #1 fan. :)

Oh and you dont just refi when rates go lower.  There are costs to refi that sometimes does not pan out in your favor.
Click to expand...

Didn?t someone just post in the Dow thread they did a no cost refi?

And have you not followed ps9? He refi?d whenever he saw his shadow.

If your loan is 1% higher than rates are now, and costs are low, why not refi now?

I?ll look for fortune11?s magic 8-ball post but eyephone?s advice never mentioned rates.
Click to expand...

Maybe SGIP can shed some light but no-fee refi is basically like 0% down auto loans.  You are giving up something to get that (usually some sort of rebate).

In my limited experience...you can get a better rate if you are willing to pay fees.
Click to expand...

True... but if you could get a lower rate without any costs, that's still a win right?

I just remember the last time we refi'd, the rebates made it almost zero cost and combined with the lower payments and the faster principal paydown... it panned out in our favor.

So even if you did buy earlier, you could still take advantage of these lower rates to lower your overall cost.

meccos seems to be hedging... he says he doesn't want to give advice but extols the advice of others that aligns with his data/facts. So if it goes the wrong way, he could always say he didn't give that advice. Supporting someone who says to wait is pretty much saying he feels the same way... he should just admit it. Why even bring up eyephone unless he is trying to validate his own position... that's a roundabout self-attaboy.
 
eyephone said:
meccos12 said:
Wellsfargo rates today for conforming 30 year were 4.375.  Several months ago they were 5.125.  This .75% difference in rates is significant as it basically means that you can afford 8.5% more house at 4.375% compared to 5.125%.  USCtrojan commented that price gains from first half of the year were about 5% which was basically lost by the end of the year.  Doing the math, a person who bought a house in June of 2018 would have paid 13.5% more for the exact same house compared to buying that house today. 

Several people gave Eyephone crap for telling people to wait to purchase a house.  They said rates were climbing so any price declines would be washed out.  Some claimed there will be no price reductions, but rather price increases.  I realize hindsight is 20/20 but a 13.5% savings in 6 months seems worth it to me.
Click to expand...

The way I see it why not call it out if we see it.
I have no conflict of interest.
Click to expand...

Except you didn't call falling rates. In fact...

eyephone said:
The boat has sailed on the low fixed rate.
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Now... before you think I'm attacking you... I'm not.

Like I said, I respect your knowledge of politics, but I think many can agree that housing, interest rates, and even stock indexes are all so very hard to predict with 100% accuracy (well... maybe except for fortune11).

We are all capable of analyzing trends based on data but many times, things happen that throw the "facts" for a loop.

This uncertainty is why I say that sometimes waiting will help, sometimes it can hurt... you just need to decide based on your own situation rather than rely on what others are saying.... even if it's just facts and data.
 
I think the price seems to be falling a bit? Anyone feelin it? If not caught up by April, there could be a massive housing tank on the way or maybe a little bit of correction..





 
irvinehomeowner said:
eyephone said:
meccos12 said:
Wellsfargo rates today for conforming 30 year were 4.375.  Several months ago they were 5.125.  This .75% difference in rates is significant as it basically means that you can afford 8.5% more house at 4.375% compared to 5.125%.  USCtrojan commented that price gains from first half of the year were about 5% which was basically lost by the end of the year.  Doing the math, a person who bought a house in June of 2018 would have paid 13.5% more for the exact same house compared to buying that house today. 

Several people gave Eyephone crap for telling people to wait to purchase a house.  They said rates were climbing so any price declines would be washed out.  Some claimed there will be no price reductions, but rather price increases.  I realize hindsight is 20/20 but a 13.5% savings in 6 months seems worth it to me.
Click to expand...

The way I see it why not call it out if we see it.
I have no conflict of interest.
Click to expand...

Except you didn't call falling rates. In fact...

eyephone said:
The boat has sailed on the low fixed rate.
Click to expand...

Now... before you think I'm attacking you... I'm not.

Like I said, I respect your knowledge of politics, but I think many can agree that housing, interest rates, and even stock indexes are all so very hard to predict with 100% accuracy (well... maybe except for fortune11).

We are all capable of analyzing trends based on data but many times, things happen that throw the "facts" for a loop.

This uncertainty is why I say that sometimes waiting will help, sometimes it can hurt... you just need to decide based on your own situation rather than rely on what others are saying.... even if it's just facts and data.
Click to expand...

Uh okay. You copied a quote since October 2018 when rates were higher. The rate is lower today. But who knows if rates will stay low.

It?s hard to predict, but why catch a falling knife. Even on CNBC they talk about slow down in housing.
 
Let's give Eyephone some credit. He correctly called the top sooner than anyone did at a time when most other posters were still bullish.

He may have saved somebody a ton of $$$.

Just look at the 2 closed sales I posted in Quail Hill. Huge savings by waiting just a few short months.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
meccos seems to be hedging... he says he doesn't want to give advice but extols the advice of others that aligns with his data/facts. So if it goes the wrong way, he could always say he didn't give that advice. Supporting someone who says to wait is pretty much saying he feels the same way... he should just admit it. Why even bring up eyephone unless he is trying to validate his own position... that's a roundabout self-attaboy.
Click to expand...


It is no secret what my thoughts are on housing as I have been pretty explicit in these posts.  In fact Im sure you recall I started a thread about 4 month ago calling for a market top.  Does anyone who read these threads doubt that Eyephone and I think alike about housing?  If the markets goes the other way, the fact that I didnt "give advice" wont allow me to hide behind all the things I have posted contrary to what you say.  You are the only one to pick apart the minutia to make a weak defense.  However lets keep in mind the fact that one can buy 13.5% more house today compared to 6 months ago, even moreso if you consider inflation. 


I give props to Eyephone because like me, he saw a slowing market at a time in which very few did, but moreso because he had the guts to freely post advice about buying a house.  I, on the other hand, did not feel it was my place to tell people whether they should buy or not.  I have said this before and I am just simply repeating myself again.  I am not sure why this is an issue for you especially since you tout that people should make a decision on their own personal experience.  People can easily see the things I have posted and formulate their own decisions to buy or not.  They dont need me to tell them. 

This makes you look like look like a sore loser.  Give credit where credit is due.  You were wrong.  He was right.
 
meccos12 said:
irvinehomeowner said:
meccos seems to be hedging... he says he doesn't want to give advice but extols the advice of others that aligns with his data/facts. So if it goes the wrong way, he could always say he didn't give that advice. Supporting someone who says to wait is pretty much saying he feels the same way... he should just admit it. Why even bring up eyephone unless he is trying to validate his own position... that's a roundabout self-attaboy.
Click to expand...


It is no secret what my thoughts are on housing as I have been pretty explicit in these posts.  In fact Im sure you recall I started a thread about 4 month ago calling for a market top.  Does anyone who read these threads doubt that Eyephone and I think alike about housing?  If the markets goes the other way, the fact that I didnt "give advice" wont allow me to hide behind all the things I have posted contrary to what you say.  You are the only one to pick apart the minutia to make a weak defense.  However lets keep in mind the fact that one can buy 13.5% more house today compared to 6 months ago, even moreso if you consider inflation. 


I give props to Eyephone because like me, he saw a slowing market at a time in which very few did, but moreso because he had the guts to freely post advice about buying a house.  I, on the other hand, did not feel it was my place to tell people whether they should buy or not.  I have said this before and I am just simply repeating myself again.  I am not sure why this is an issue for you especially since you tout that people should make a decision on their own personal experience.  People can easily see the things I have posted and formulate their own decisions to buy or not.  They dont need me to tell them. 

This makes you look like look like a sore loser.  Give credit where credit is due.  You were wrong.  He was right.
Click to expand...

Sure, if that makes you feel better.

What was I wrong about specifically? I didn't make any calls. I didn't predict anything. All I asked was if the slowdown was seasonal and if eyephone is telling people to wait, for how long and for what percentage savings (which neither of you answered). Oh... and I also gave reasons why people shouldn't wait if they can't.

So now, you guys are saying "I told you so!"... based on interest rate drops? Sounds like a revisionist winner.

Where is this 13.5% number coming from? Interest rate drop or housing price drop? Is that for all housing or just some specific houses posted above?

If you're going to start posting number as "facts", please qualify and prove them.

And are you sure you are not eyephone's burner account?
 
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