Housing Analysis
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It is possible but much more likely that people will just stay in their homes rather than sell low. Fundamentals are very different and the threat of foreclosures are not very high. Even with the last crash, the stock markets and layoffs came first.
Housing is almost always a lagging indicator...both ways.
Not good but it's fundamentally different. You don't have the entire financial sector on the verge of collapse.
I suppose one can look at specific homes and say it went down 20%. Or you can you look at the whole Irvine market and say it went down 30%. Depends on how you want to look at it.
Furthermore someone else can come in here and say that the homes they specifically looked at went down 40%. If some homes went down 20%, you would probably need to see homes that went down 40% to offset, since the median price drop was 30%.
If you look at my link, I actually used Trulia's "All Properties" to come up with that 20% number.
Yes, the stock I was specifically shopping for isn't for everyone but I don't think that's abnormal. As for which homes the majority of TI's members look for, I would wager it's toward the higher end than the lower end. A number of members here have asked and shopped in Orchard Hills which runs much higher than what I'm living in (poll time!).
And I don't know anyone who bought a home at a 40%+ discount, nor do I recall any IHB or TI member saying they did either. Maybe someone got a 1br or a Shady Canyon home at a big discount but that isn't a "typical Irvine home hunter" either.
It is still freaking Texas.
We have traveled to Vegas, SLC, Phoenix, Portland, and Seattle...there is no comparison to Southern California for a number of reasons.
According to the article it was the fastest growing city in America. Also, Money ranked Frisco #1 best place to live in America in 2018.
http://time.com/money/collection/2018-best-places-to-live/5361440/frisco-texas/
Another problem you have in Texas is the poor public education system...the budget cuts have wrecked the public school system K-12 and most people are sending their kids to private school. There is basically one top tier state school in UT-Austin.
Also...job diversity is an issue. It's great that Toyota moved to Frisco but it's basically a company town.
Is Irvine counted in this? Just wondering because as I've seen in the past, Irvine tends to be slower when it comes to price drops.
Irvinecommuter
New member
Mety said:
It is possible but much more likely that people will just stay in their homes rather than sell low. Fundamentals are very different and the threat of foreclosures are not very high. Even with the last crash, the stock markets and layoffs came first.
Housing is almost always a lagging indicator...both ways.
Irvinecommuter
New member
Mety said:
Not good but it's fundamentally different. You don't have the entire financial sector on the verge of collapse.
irvinehomeowner said:
I suppose one can look at specific homes and say it went down 20%. Or you can you look at the whole Irvine market and say it went down 30%. Depends on how you want to look at it.
Furthermore someone else can come in here and say that the homes they specifically looked at went down 40%. If some homes went down 20%, you would probably need to see homes that went down 40% to offset, since the median price drop was 30%.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Mety said:
If you look at my link, I actually used Trulia's "All Properties" to come up with that 20% number.
Yes, the stock I was specifically shopping for isn't for everyone but I don't think that's abnormal. As for which homes the majority of TI's members look for, I would wager it's toward the higher end than the lower end. A number of members here have asked and shopped in Orchard Hills which runs much higher than what I'm living in (poll time!).
And I don't know anyone who bought a home at a 40%+ discount, nor do I recall any IHB or TI member saying they did either. Maybe someone got a 1br or a Shady Canyon home at a big discount but that isn't a "typical Irvine home hunter" either.
zubs
Well-known member
whether it be 20% or 30% in the 2008 drop, I predict that this new slowdown will only be max 10% and will take 6 years from now to reach that number.
My prediction is not very good though, because I was surprised by the 2013 jump in real estate. It literally went up 20% in 3 months.
My prediction is not very good though, because I was surprised by the 2013 jump in real estate. It literally went up 20% in 3 months.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Yeah... that got me too. Worked out okay though because the home we sold jumped in that short time also (and kept going up after that).zubs said:
Bloomberg Article: Free Vacations, $100,000 Discounts: Homebuilders Get Desperate
?Ram Konara, a real estate broker in suburban Dallas, is raking in freebies this year: trips to Lake Tahoe and Santa Barbara in California, Cabo San Lucas in Mexico, and a dude ranch in Wyoming. The homebuyers he represents are cashing in, too. They?re winning price cuts of more than $100,000, on top of free upgrades such as media rooms, cabinets, and blinds.
This generosity flows from increasingly desperate homebuilders. Hot markets are cooling fast as interest rates rise. In the great housing slowdown of 2018, shoppers are reclaiming the upper hand, after years of soaring prices that placed most inventory out of reach for many families.
Immigration restrictions have made high-skilled workers in places such as Austin and San Jose nervous about buying. And a strengthening dollar makes property less appealing to South Americans buying homes in Miami and Chinese buyers picking up properties in California?s Orange County.
In Seattle, where home prices have doubled since 2012, builders are offering cash for customers to ?buy down? mortgage rates?that is, pay to get a lower interest rate. ?Builders are calling us,? says Andy McDonough, senior vice president at HomeStreet Bank, which works with the companies on such promotions. ?They weren?t doing this earlier because buyers were lining up.?
Consider Frisco, Texas, a city 30 miles north of Dallas, where narrowly spaced villas of stone and brick have replaced cow pastures. Its population nearly doubled over the past decade, to 177,000. Its 8 percent jump last year made it the fastest-growing city in America.
Frisco has jobs galore. Near Toyota Motor Corp.?s new North American headquarters, it also boasts the Dallas Cowboys? training and office complex. Money magazine recently called Frisco the best place to live in America because of its robust job market and strong schools. Yet times are changing. Along with all the national trends, Trump?s crackdown on H-1B visas for highly skilled workers has been bad for business.?
Source:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-100-000-discounts-homebuilders-get-desperate
?Ram Konara, a real estate broker in suburban Dallas, is raking in freebies this year: trips to Lake Tahoe and Santa Barbara in California, Cabo San Lucas in Mexico, and a dude ranch in Wyoming. The homebuyers he represents are cashing in, too. They?re winning price cuts of more than $100,000, on top of free upgrades such as media rooms, cabinets, and blinds.
This generosity flows from increasingly desperate homebuilders. Hot markets are cooling fast as interest rates rise. In the great housing slowdown of 2018, shoppers are reclaiming the upper hand, after years of soaring prices that placed most inventory out of reach for many families.
Immigration restrictions have made high-skilled workers in places such as Austin and San Jose nervous about buying. And a strengthening dollar makes property less appealing to South Americans buying homes in Miami and Chinese buyers picking up properties in California?s Orange County.
In Seattle, where home prices have doubled since 2012, builders are offering cash for customers to ?buy down? mortgage rates?that is, pay to get a lower interest rate. ?Builders are calling us,? says Andy McDonough, senior vice president at HomeStreet Bank, which works with the companies on such promotions. ?They weren?t doing this earlier because buyers were lining up.?
Consider Frisco, Texas, a city 30 miles north of Dallas, where narrowly spaced villas of stone and brick have replaced cow pastures. Its population nearly doubled over the past decade, to 177,000. Its 8 percent jump last year made it the fastest-growing city in America.
Frisco has jobs galore. Near Toyota Motor Corp.?s new North American headquarters, it also boasts the Dallas Cowboys? training and office complex. Money magazine recently called Frisco the best place to live in America because of its robust job market and strong schools. Yet times are changing. Along with all the national trends, Trump?s crackdown on H-1B visas for highly skilled workers has been bad for business.?
Source:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-100-000-discounts-homebuilders-get-desperate
Irvinecommuter
New member
eyephone said:
It is still freaking Texas.
We have traveled to Vegas, SLC, Phoenix, Portland, and Seattle...there is no comparison to Southern California for a number of reasons.
Irvinecommuter said:
According to the article it was the fastest growing city in America. Also, Money ranked Frisco #1 best place to live in America in 2018.
http://time.com/money/collection/2018-best-places-to-live/5361440/frisco-texas/
aquabliss
Well-known member
Went to Frisco/Plano/Prosper a couple months back to visit friends and check out dozens of new home sights. The amount of free upgrades from the builders there is staggering compared to SoCal. Wood Floors, Iron Staircases, painting, counters, landscaping with irrigation systems, you name it... just bring your furniture and you're set.
Frisco is nice but still it's no SoCal... Ethnic makeup is pretty similar (whites, asians, indians, latinos), food is actually better than I thought it would be... freeway system is annoying, toll roads are everywhere, property tax is expensive, lots of bugs at night (crickets and roaches all over), saw 1 snake outside the hotel, weird thunderstorms in summer and hail in winter, people are nice and friendly - but not sure I could stomach the move in the end.
Frisco is nice but still it's no SoCal... Ethnic makeup is pretty similar (whites, asians, indians, latinos), food is actually better than I thought it would be... freeway system is annoying, toll roads are everywhere, property tax is expensive, lots of bugs at night (crickets and roaches all over), saw 1 snake outside the hotel, weird thunderstorms in summer and hail in winter, people are nice and friendly - but not sure I could stomach the move in the end.
Irvinecommuter
New member
eyephone said:
Another problem you have in Texas is the poor public education system...the budget cuts have wrecked the public school system K-12 and most people are sending their kids to private school. There is basically one top tier state school in UT-Austin.
Also...job diversity is an issue. It's great that Toyota moved to Frisco but it's basically a company town.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
meccos12 said:
Is Irvine counted in this? Just wondering because as I've seen in the past, Irvine tends to be slower when it comes to price drops.