Housing Analysis

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eyephone said:
?CNBC article: A growing list of companies from FedEx to BMW are warning about the world economy

Executives at FedEx, BMW, UBS and others are describing bleak macroeconomic conditions, which they say are weighing on business.

The head of UBS says it was ?one of the worst first-quarter environments in recent history,? while FedEx cites slowing international conditions and weaker global trade growth trends.

Fitch Ratings also "aggressively" cut its 2019 global forecast this week. But the firm's economics team stopped short of calling a global recession.?
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/20/the...before-poor-earnings-took-down-the-stock.html

Just to be clear, CNBC reported what Fedex mentioned in the earnings calls. Also other big companies issued similar warnings....
Click to expand...

The rest of the world is slowing down faster than the US, especially Europe.  If we do get a recession, there will be rate cuts followed by more bond buying by the Fed.  Interest rates will be back in the low 3s on the 30-year fixed and in the low to mid 2s for the 7 and 10 year arm loans.

I don't know that we can have a recession until we see the job market turn.  That being said, in terms of the stock market the old adage holds true....DON'T FIGHT THE FED.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
The rest of the world is slowing down faster than the US, especially Europe.  If we do get a recession, there will be rate cuts followed by more bond buying by the Fed.  Interest rates will be back in the low 3s on the 30-year fixed and in the low to mid 2s for the 7 and 10 year arm loans.

I don't know that we can have a recession until we see the job market turn.  That being said, in terms of the stock market the old adage holds true....DON'T FIGHT THE FED.
Click to expand...

I posted last August that Chinese economy is getting really bad and Chinese home buying in Irvine are slowing. Almost nobody on this forum believed it would have any effect on Irvine home prices. It's funny to me now, barely half a year later, almost everyone is a believer.

Things changed so quickly  :D
 
now, prices will have to be supported by what domestic buyers can afford (fall in line with incomes)
I think that's better for Irvine as a community, even though it doesn't do me any good as a homeowner.

You should see the bloodbath in the mansion market in Arcadia.  >:D schadenfreude

 
All I have to say is dont fall prey to

Recency Bias

Confirmation Bias

when I made my prediction about not worrying about ?rate rise? and buying the short dated treasuries at 3 percent , they weren?t popular ideas . Every loudmouth on CNBC and ?financial advisors ? running chickenshit were telling clients to prepare for ?rising rates ? . 

Housing is bottoming out here . If not , then you should be selling everything else also and moving into cash .
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
eyephone said:
?CNBC article: A growing list of companies from FedEx to BMW are warning about the world economy

Executives at FedEx, BMW, UBS and others are describing bleak macroeconomic conditions, which they say are weighing on business.

The head of UBS says it was ?one of the worst first-quarter environments in recent history,? while FedEx cites slowing international conditions and weaker global trade growth trends.

Fitch Ratings also "aggressively" cut its 2019 global forecast this week. But the firm's economics team stopped short of calling a global recession.?
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/20/the...before-poor-earnings-took-down-the-stock.html

Just to be clear, CNBC reported what Fedex mentioned in the earnings calls. Also other big companies issued similar warnings....
Click to expand...

The rest of the world is slowing down faster than the US, especially Europe.  If we do get a recession, there will be rate cuts followed by more bond buying by the Fed.  Interest rates will be back in the low 3s on the 30-year fixed and in the low to mid 2s for the 7 and 10 year arm loans.

I don't know that we can have a recession until we see the job market turn.  That being said, in terms of the stock market the old adage holds true....DON'T FIGHT THE FED.
Click to expand...

I?m creating a new thread. Economic Slowdown
 
Recession is coming!
An inverted yield curve, where short-term yields are higher than their longer-term counterparts, is considered a reliable recession signal.
Click to expand...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/21/a-key-recession-indicator-just-did-something
-that-hasnt-happened-in-12-years.html
eyephone said:
I?m creating a new thread. Economic Slowdown
Click to expand...
 
What do you guys think?

Have we had a slowdown recently?

Are we still in it or we recovered?

Do you think tax returns with new Trumps laws will have significant impact on the market?

If so, up or down?
 
Mety said:
What do you guys think?

Have we had a slowdown recently?

Are we still in it or we recovered?

Do you think tax returns with new Trumps laws will have significant impact on the market?

If so, up or down?
Click to expand...


Trump adviser says revision of SALT-deduction cap won't happen

President Donald Trump?s chief economic adviser, Lawrence Kudlow, on Wednesday threw cold water on the president?s suggestion he would be open to revising the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions.

?I don?t expect to see the tax reform opened up,? Kudlow said at the Christian Science Monitor breakfast meeting with reporters. ?I doubt it. I doubt it very much.?

Kudlow was referring to the tax law passed by Republicans in Congress in December 2017. Among other things, it placed a $10,000 limit on state-and-local tax deductions (called SALT) ? virtually guaranteeing a significant federal tax hike for New York homeowners in the middle and upper income brackets.
https://m.timesunion.com/7day-state...sion-of-SALT-deduction-cap-won-t-13739457.php


 
irvinehomeowner said:
eyephone said:
Mety said:
eyephone said:
The tax advantage of owning a home is out the door.
Click to expand...

It is out the door indeed.

Anyone got a less return/owe more this year (technically last year)?
Click to expand...

I think I OWE that?s why I?m doing it last minute.
Click to expand...

Same.
Click to expand...

For some reason, I'm getting more return than expected. Then again, there were many different things happened in 2018. Or maybe because I don't own a huge SFR with a driveway like you guys?  :)

But seriously, if the majority of the people are not getting this tax advantage of owning a home, wouldn't that also be an impact on the housing market? I believe eyephone brought this up before.



 
My tax LIABILITY went down in 2018 with the new tax law reform.  No point in talking about whether you owe more or less.  It's the liability against your income that matters.  The expanded tax bracket, changes in child credit, and AMT all outweighed the SALT deduction cap for me.
 
woodburyowner said:
My tax LIABILITY went down in 2018 with the new tax law reform.  No point in talking about whether you owe more or less.  It's the liability against your income that matters.  The expanded tax bracket, changes in child credit, and AMT all outweighed the SALT deduction cap for me.
Click to expand...

Yeah, so I guess I should have said more clearly.
Does this new tax law make you pay more tax?
Is it making you owning a home less desirable?

 
Mety said:
woodburyowner said:
My tax LIABILITY went down in 2018 with the new tax law reform.  No point in talking about whether you owe more or less.  It's the liability against your income that matters.  The expanded tax bracket, changes in child credit, and AMT all outweighed the SALT deduction cap for me.
Click to expand...

Yeah, so I guess I should have said more clearly.
Does this new tax law make you pay more tax?
Is it making you owning a home less desirable?
Click to expand...

Plain and simple. A home is no longer a vehicle to reduce taxes for an average person.
 
Mety said:
woodburyowner said:
My tax LIABILITY went down in 2018 with the new tax law reform.  No point in talking about whether you owe more or less.  It's the liability against your income that matters.  The expanded tax bracket, changes in child credit, and AMT all outweighed the SALT deduction cap for me.
Click to expand...

Yeah, so I guess I should have said more clearly.
Does this new tax law make you pay more tax?
Is it making you owning a home less desirable?
Click to expand...

reduced tax liability means less taxes

i paid less as well
 
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