Housing Analysis

[irvinehomeowner]

You have to admit it has something to do with the new tax law. Look all over price reductions. In high tax states and low tax states. (It?s not seasonality)

Or it could be time for this "bubble" to burst.

This is just like horoscopes or fortune cookies, you can always find a way to make something apply to the situation.

Look at any housing graph for Irvine or the US and you'll see a seasonal pattern regarding volume, pricing, etc.

The kudos will go to those who can accurately predict how much, when is the bottom, and when it will go back up... of which I don't think you've attempted at.

Is it going to be 20%? A simple yes or no should suffice.

I don?t have to give a percentage.

I guess you you have to ask, what triggered/started the slowdown? I think it?s many factors and the new tax law is one of them.

So then what is it this thread "analyzing"? I don't see any additional value in predicting a slowdown that always happens at this time of year. What analysis went into attributing it to a new tax law that may or may not affect buyers in Irvine?

Your comments are either obvious or ambiguous and I'm not the only one who has said that.

This is how this thread reads to me:

You: The sun will set today.
Me: Doesn't the sun set every day? Do you know what time it will set?
You: I don't have to tell you, check out this YouTube video.

 

[eyephone]

You have to admit it has something to do with the new tax law. Look all over price reductions. In high tax states and low tax states. (It?s not seasonality)

Or it could be time for this "bubble" to burst.

This is just like horoscopes or fortune cookies, you can always find a way to make something apply to the situation.

Look at any housing graph for Irvine or the US and you'll see a seasonal pattern regarding volume, pricing, etc.

The kudos will go to those who can accurately predict how much, when is the bottom, and when it will go back up... of which I don't think you've attempted at.

Is it going to be 20%? A simple yes or no should suffice.

I don?t have to give a percentage.

I guess you you have to ask, what triggered/started the slowdown? I think it?s many factors and the new tax law is one of them.

So then what is it this thread "analyzing"? I don't see any additional value in predicting a slowdown that always happens at this time of year. What analysis went into attributing it to a new tax law that may or may not affect buyers in Irvine?

Your comments are either obvious or ambiguous and I'm not the only one who has said that.

This is how this thread reads to me:

You: The sun will set today.
Me: Doesn't the sun set every day? Do you know what time it will set?
You: I don't have to tell you, check out this YouTube video.

Stop the press. You are the one that said there is no slowdown and said it was seasonality. Then you attacked me and brought up BTB comparing me to him. (Reallly unbelievable)

I think you should get a clue. I tried to be nice with you, but you keep on running your mouth.

I gave data to support my analysis. I honestly think you are too leveraged in RE.

 

[eyephone]

You have to admit it has something to do with the new tax law. Look all over price reductions. In high tax states and low tax states. (It?s not seasonality)

Or it could be time for this "bubble" to burst.

This is just like horoscopes or fortune cookies, you can always find a way to make something apply to the situation.

Look at any housing graph for Irvine or the US and you'll see a seasonal pattern regarding volume, pricing, etc.

The kudos will go to those who can accurately predict how much, when is the bottom, and when it will go back up... of which I don't think you've attempted at.

Is it going to be 20%? A simple yes or no should suffice.

I don?t have to give a percentage.

I guess you you have to ask, what triggered/started the slowdown? I think it?s many factors and the new tax law is one of them.

So then what is it this thread "analyzing"? I don't see any additional value in predicting a slowdown that always happens at this time of year. What analysis went into attributing it to a new tax law that may or may not affect buyers in Irvine?

Your comments are either obvious or ambiguous and I'm not the only one who has said that.

This is how this thread reads to me:

You: The sun will set today.
Me: Doesn't the sun set every day? Do you know what time it will set?
You: I don't have to tell you, check out this YouTube video.

Seems like your hurt that the RE is slowing down. But no matter what you say, wont stop the current slow down.

I think the story is about you now. Shows how petty you are. I thought you can have a civil discussion regarding RE, but you are making personal attacks on me. So I have no choice to respond. (I really do. I mean who wouldn?t)

 

[momopi]

Let me tell you how you can still get a good ROI in this business if you are still interested in selling. It might not get sold as fast as the beginning of this year, but there still is a chance to get some good ROI.
Are you ready? Here it goes..
Do not list your property with the current comp price. It will sit and sit and sit and get delisted unless you keep reducing the price like 3 times. Instead, list your property with the last year's price. It will get multiple offers and possibly get above asking offers as well.

My strategy for Riverside County investment is to buy the cheaper (smaller/older) SFR's, so that when I sell I can list them among the lowest priced SFR's in the area.  You tend to get bargain hunters who'd try to nickle and dime you, but it wasn't difficult to sell within 30 days of listing.

 

[eyephone]

Let me tell you how you can still get a good ROI in this business if you are still interested in selling. It might not get sold as fast as the beginning of this year, but there still is a chance to get some good ROI.
Are you ready? Here it goes..
Do not list your property with the current comp price. It will sit and sit and sit and get delisted unless you keep reducing the price like 3 times. Instead, list your property with the last year's price. It will get multiple offers and possibly get above asking offers as well.

My strategy for Riverside County investment is to buy the cheaper (smaller/older) SFR's, so that when I sell I can list them among the lowest priced SFR's in the area.  You tend to get bargain hunters who'd try to nickle and dime you, but it wasn't difficult to sell within 30 days of listing.

When did you buy your Riverside properties? (before or after the last bubble)

 

[zubs]

Look if eyephone wants to pat himself on the back for saying he predicted the slowdown, why rain on his party?
He is a class A fortune teller.  Good Job!

However I understand IHO's frustration.  Saying housing will slowdown back in MAR was easy with all the headwinds in the way. (Interest rates, Trump tax reform) But we are trying to go deeper.  What's the damage and how long will it last?

 

[eyephone]

Look if eyephone wants to pat himself on the back for saying he predicted the slowdown, why rain on his party?
He is a class A fortune teller.  Good Job!

Other members have been saying it also.

 

[zubs]

No one was disagreeing with you 20 pages ago.
The signs were everywhere and we are on a forum that started out as a bear blog.

 

[eyephone]

Hey if I?m come across good news. I will share it also or we can talk about that also.

 

[zubs]

How far this bitch is gonna drop is important:

5% decrease at 2020 - Buy now don't care about a 5% decrease
10% decrease at 2020 - The line between buy now and wait, but if you find a house you like, get it.
15% decrease at 2020 - Wait until 2020 and beyond to buy
20% decrease at 2020 - Not likely because owners have strong hand this time.
etc.

So back to this.. I think 10% is it.

 

[meccos12]

You have to admit it has something to do with the new tax law. Look all over price reductions. In high tax states and low tax states. (It?s not seasonality)

Or it could be time for this "bubble" to burst.

This is just like horoscopes or fortune cookies, you can always find a way to make something apply to the situation.

Look at any housing graph for Irvine or the US and you'll see a seasonal pattern regarding volume, pricing, etc.

The kudos will go to those who can accurately predict how much, when is the bottom, and when it will go back up... of which I don't think you've attempted at.

Is it going to be 20%? A simple yes or no should suffice.

IHO, you keep saying this is just seasonal patterns.  First by saying this, you imply that you acknowledge there is something happening.  However this slowdown started happening in the middle of summer selling season.  Secondly when you see YOY changes in inventory and demand, this no longer is just seasonal patterns. 

You also keep asking people to accurately predict how much and when.  We all know this is next to impossible and those who actually guess, simply just guessed correctly.  Therefore it is somewhat disingenuous to keep asking for something you know you cannot get.  I think its simple enough to say, housing market is definitely slowing down and its not just seasonal pattern as you suggest. 

 

[zubs]

This slowdown is not seasonal.
You can see it with the increasing inventory as we flip from sellers market to neutral/buyers.

So if we are all agreed on the slowdown, the next subject is how deep and how long.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

You have to admit it has something to do with the new tax law. Look all over price reductions. In high tax states and low tax states. (It?s not seasonality)

Or it could be time for this "bubble" to burst.

This is just like horoscopes or fortune cookies, you can always find a way to make something apply to the situation.

Look at any housing graph for Irvine or the US and you'll see a seasonal pattern regarding volume, pricing, etc.

The kudos will go to those who can accurately predict how much, when is the bottom, and when it will go back up... of which I don't think you've attempted at.

Is it going to be 20%? A simple yes or no should suffice.

IHO, you keep saying this is just seasonal patterns.  First by saying this, you imply that you acknowledge there is something happening.  However this slowdown started happening in the middle of summer selling season.  Secondly when you see YOY changes in inventory and demand, this no longer is just seasonal patterns. 

You also keep asking people to accurately predict how much and when.  We all know this is next to impossible and those who actually guess, simply just guessed correctly.  Therefore it is somewhat disingenuous to keep asking for something you know you cannot get.  I think its simple enough to say, housing market is definitely slowing down and its not just seasonal pattern as you suggest.

@Meccos, are you a homeowner or are you a renter. I know you think everything in Irvine is overprice so which one are you?

 

[irvinebullhousing]

This slowdown is not seasonal.
You can see it with the increasing inventory as we flip from sellers market to neutral/buyers.

So if we are all agreed on the slowdown, the next subject is how deep and how long.

We still sugar high on the corporate welfare give away from Trump so 2019 is still likely economic expansion. 2020 is likely the big one will set in. As far as how long, the Fed can not use QE this time, to rescue the implosion like during the last down turn. Likely to be long and painful.

 

[zubs]

In 1990, Japanese stock market crash followed by realestate crash.  Housing starts going up in 1997
In 2001 Tech bubble pop, but realestate propped up by fake loans, so no housing crash.
In 2007 Housing crash due to fake loans leads to stock market crash in 2008.  Housing recovers 5-6 years later in 2013.
What's next?

Why did the housing market in Orange county appreciate 45% from 2012 to 2018?

 

[irvinebullhousing]

In 1990, Japanese stock market crash followed by realestate crash.  Housing starts going up in 1997
In 2001 Tech bubble pop, but realestate propped up by fake loans, so no housing crash.
In 2007 Housing crash due to fake loans leads to stock market crash in 2008.  Housing recovers 5-6 years later in 2013.
What's next?

Why did the housing market in Orange county appreciate 45% from 2012 to 2018?

Low rate, bottom of the market when institutional investors buys create floors, international buyers FCB, move up buyers. All these create a huge run up. I still recall some in 2015 calling it?s a bubble in the making and side line, waiting. The housing continue its run until of this year. The leveling is playing out right now. Not a down turn in my opinion.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/r...ipe-for-a-financial-crisis-by-2020-2018-09-13

 

[Kenkoko]

If all of those perceived as inferiors then I wonder why buy in Irvine in the first place. So are they naive or stupid. Or they like to be close to conveniences, yet have to trek all those ways everyday of the week. Hmmm, maybe I am stupid.

Not sure why you'd think of those buyers who have a different perception on the greatness of Irvine schools as naive or stupid.
Irvine has a lot of other positives outside of having good  (or great or adequate depending on your perception) schools.

I know many Taiwanese and S Koreans see US education system (pre-college) as a downgrade. US high school drop out rates are 17%-25% depending on your source. High school dropout rates are much lower  3%- 7% in S Korea and Taiwan despite having much more difficult curriculum. International test scores would also show a large margin of difference.

Irvine schools are touted as top here. But "top schools" really has a different meaning in East Asian countries. The level of competition there is much much greater.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16K6m3Ua2nw

This video echoes a lot of things east asian FOBs think of USA. But they still choose to live here in spite of all that.

 

[Kenkoko]

I attended public elementary school in Taipei for few years in early 1980s.  If memory serves we had to arrive around 7am-7:30AM and perform light janitorial duties in classroom and gardens.  We had daily opening and closing ceremonies on the field where "opening" was flag raising and light exercise / basic martial arts in the morning, and closing that ended around 5PM-5:30PM ish for flag lowering.

Back then I woke up at 5:30AM-6AM and didn't get home until 6PM-6:30PM.  Saturday was 1/2 day at school.  I was fortunate that my parents didn't send me to cram school, other than English lessons on weekends prior to our move to US.  We didn't have school buses and most kids walked to school.  In Asia cram schools are popular partly because they address individual issues that public education fails to do.

Things are somewhat different today since they converted 2 year trade schools and colleges to universities.  Previously there was a lot of pressure to excel academically for college entrance exam.  Today there is a surplus of colleges and it's actually quite hard to not get admitted to college,  Consequently the value of college degrees has declined.


For those who are good at studying and rote learning, there's the alternative path of Civil Service Exam -- but it's very competitive.  In China 1.4 million applicants took the 5 hour exam in 2017 to compete for 30,000 positions.  In Korea some 440,000 applicants took the exam in 2017 to compete for 64,000 positions.  Government jobs are considered "iron rice bowl" with good benefits and pension, so many people find it attractive.

I also went to Taipei schools through 9th grade. I was not as lucky as you tho. My parents put me on the academic track which put me in school from 6AM to 6PM everyday except Sundays. After 6PM it's cram school and tutoring until 9PM.

When I came to to US for high school, ( Arcadia not Irvine) I was quite surprised at the level of math and sciences classes. I don't think I learned anything new until halfway through my AP classes in my senior year.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

You have to admit it has something to do with the new tax law. Look all over price reductions. In high tax states and low tax states. (It?s not seasonality)

Or it could be time for this "bubble" to burst.

This is just like horoscopes or fortune cookies, you can always find a way to make something apply to the situation.

Look at any housing graph for Irvine or the US and you'll see a seasonal pattern regarding volume, pricing, etc.

The kudos will go to those who can accurately predict how much, when is the bottom, and when it will go back up... of which I don't think you've attempted at.

Is it going to be 20%? A simple yes or no should suffice.

I don?t have to give a percentage.

I guess you you have to ask, what triggered/started the slowdown? I think it?s many factors and the new tax law is one of them.

So then what is it this thread "analyzing"? I don't see any additional value in predicting a slowdown that always happens at this time of year. What analysis went into attributing it to a new tax law that may or may not affect buyers in Irvine?

Your comments are either obvious or ambiguous and I'm not the only one who has said that.

This is how this thread reads to me:

You: The sun will set today.
Me: Doesn't the sun set every day? Do you know what time it will set?
You: I don't have to tell you, check out this YouTube video.

Seems like your hurt that the RE is slowing down. But no matter what you say, wont stop the current slow down.

I think the story is about you now. Shows how petty you are. I thought you can have a civil discussion regarding RE, but you are making personal attacks on me. So I have no choice to respond. (I really do. I mean who wouldn?t)

First, explain where I'm making a personal attack on you, I have no idea who you are to even formulate anything personal.

Rule of thumb when discussing on an anonymous message board, talk about the opinion/post... not the poster. Now I may skirt that line but I'm really interested in more background to your one liners.

Read zubs' posts:

However I understand IHO's frustration.  Saying housing will slowdown back in MAR was easy with all the headwinds in the way. (Interest rates, Trump tax reform) But we are trying to go deeper.  What's the damage and how long will it last?

[...]

How far this bitch is gonna drop is important:

5% decrease at 2020 - Buy now don't care about a 5% decrease
10% decrease at 2020 - The line between buy now and wait, but if you find a house you like, get it.
15% decrease at 2020 - Wait until 2020 and beyond to buy
20% decrease at 2020 - Not likely because owners have strong hand this time.
etc.

So back to this.. I think 10% is it.

I'm trying to get you to actually post some analysis (like the thread says) rather than just send me to links on the Internet. The reason I keep asking you if it's seasonal is because you haven't provided any evidence that it's not (and I'll address what zubs just posted).

So if you can explain where in my last post I made a "personal attack" on you, I'll apologize.

Second, I never said there isn't a slowdown. What I said was there is usually a slowdown this time of year.

Now let's get back to zubs' post:

This slowdown is not seasonal.
You can see it with the increasing inventory as we flip from sellers market to neutral/buyers.

I dunno about that. When I looked at those Zillow charts because meccos12 said it was a 20% drop from 2016, it looked like the same seasonal ebb/flow for inventory/sales/pricing as it did for previous years.
https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/

Prices go up and down based on seasons, as does days on market. If you look at those charts, overall, prices are trending upwards and days on market are trending downwards.

And even if you did say slowdowns were coming back in March, according to those same charts, Irvine's median sales price increased from Apr 2018 to July 2018 (as homes usually do heading into summer).

IHO, you keep saying this is just seasonal patterns.  First by saying this, you imply that you acknowledge there is something happening.  However this slowdown started happening in the middle of summer selling season.  Secondly when you see YOY changes in inventory and demand, this no longer is just seasonal patterns. 

When is the middle of the summer season? July? Zillow charts doesn't go past July 2018 so I can't confirm but according to previous years, there really is no consistent "middle", just that either during or after summer, prices go down. Then they may go back up in the winter but usually always go back up during spring.

So if pricing doesn't go back up between now and next summer, then that's a different story.

You also keep asking people to accurately predict how much and when.  We all know this is next to impossible and those who actually guess, simply just guessed correctly.  Therefore it is somewhat disingenuous to keep asking for something you know you cannot get.

And that's my point (and what zubs said). If you are telling people to wait because it's a "slowdown" but can't tell them how much and when, then what value is that? If it's 5%, why wait? If it's 25%, then when because I've already said how timing is almost impossible in the high-end markets.

I think its simple enough to say, housing market is definitely slowing down and its not just seasonal pattern as you suggest. 

Sure, if you're also not advising people to wait. But if you are, then you need to give more information and details about why this is an different slowdown from the seasonal ones.

So far, I haven't seen enough empirical evidence that this is not the "after summer slowdown" and that's why I keep asking eyephone about it (or in his words... "attacking").

 

[lnc]

How far this bitch is gonna drop is important:

5% decrease at 2020 - Buy now don't care about a 5% decrease
10% decrease at 2020 - The line between buy now and wait, but if you find a house you like, get it.
15% decrease at 2020 - Wait until 2020 and beyond to buy
20% decrease at 2020 - Not likely because owners have strong hand this time.
etc.

So back to this.. I think 10% is it.

I'm leaning toward towards 10% in 2020 for Irvine too.

However not all Irvine home will drop 10% though, some property might not see a drop at all especially if it's a highly desirable one. 

And even if it did drop 10% in 2020, the price still up in 2018 at around 6-7% and with a modest increase of 2-4% in 2019 (the rate of price increase are slowing down but its still going up, many housing economist still project a modest increase in 2019) , which means the buyer are practically paying 2018's home price in 2020.  Might as well buy it now if you find a house you like.