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NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
lizzie - And I keep saying mortgages are only the first domino in a row of credit dominos that will fall. Credit default swaps will be the 95% of the iceburg under the surface that no one realizes is there.<p>


Enough corny cliches for ya?
 
I thought it was even more than that. Like a hundred trillion or more. Does anybody out there understand how these things work, and what harm they will do as they unravel? Does this mean that a bunch of wall streeters will start jumping from ledges? How does it affect everyone else/
 
<p>ICEBERG ! DEAD AHEAD !</p>

<a class="wrapper" target="_blank" href="http://aolsearch.aol.com/aol/redir?src=fed_image&requestId=ecc821a900bb6f83&clickedItemRank=3&userQuery=picture+of+an+iceberg&clickedItemURN=imageDetails%3FinvocationType%3DimageDetails%26query%3Dpicture%2Bof%2Ban%2Biceberg%26img%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww-das.uwyo.edu%252F%257Egeerts%252Fcwx%252Fnotes%252Fchap17%252Ficeberg.jpg%26site%3D%26host%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww-das.uwyo.edu%252F%257Egeerts%252Fcwx%252Fnotes%252Fchap17%252Farctic.html%26width%3D127%26height%3D114%26thumbUrl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fimages-partners-tbn.google.com%2Fimages%3Fq%3Dtbn%3Aad-tgqv6yHWm0M%3Awww-das.uwyo.edu%2F%7Egeerts%2Fcwx%2Fnotes%2Fchap17%2Ficeberg.jpg%26b%3Dsearch%253Fencquery%253D8c073545b0679760e5a0282ab48f2bef6ed39db9c6452a90%2526invocationType%253Dkeyword_rollover%2526ie%253DUTF-8%26icid%3Dsnap-pic&moduleId=image_lbox.jsp.M&clickedItemDescription=FedImageResults"><img title="" style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 4px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 5px; WIDTH: 100px; PADDING-TOP: 8px; HEIGHT: 89px" height="89" alt="Icebergs and the Titanic" width="100" src="http://images-partners-tbn.google.com/images?q=tbn:ad-tgqv6yHWm0M:www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap17/iceberg.jpg" /></a>
 
<p>Housing Wire (via Calculated Risk) says servicers are playing games to reduce 60 and 90 day delinquencies. So whatever the servicers are saying, the reality is worse.</p>

<p>The games are repayment plans. Some fraction of these will work, at least for a while.</p>

<p>I guess it's good that a bit more money is received by the desperate lenders, no matter how much they deserve the fix that they're in.</p>

<p>So whats the mkt going to do today?</p>
 
Sounds like a way to shift the irresponsibility from a bad mortgage to a bad retirement. McDonald's and WalMart won't be hurting for applicants!



Credit Madness '08 - New Year, New Credit Line! 401(k) Debit Cards

<http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/080114/10398317.html>
 
<p>T!m, great find. We've discussed this type of "loan" on some of the threads before. I imagine we'll see it being abused, but some of it does have merit (the possibility that you are "paying" yourself back...) Not to mention that your 401K investments might not perform as well as whatever interest rate you are "paying yourself" back.</p>

<p>link <a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/080114/10398317.html">Just Put It on My 401(k) Debit Card: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance</a></p>
 
Oh my... The first time China sneezed, the US futures market predicted an ugly open. However, this time the US futures are really ugly, and it has been getting progressively worse by the minute. The dow futures have gone from down 50 to 125 in an hour. The US futures are not always the best gauge, and they under or overestimate all the time. But, I have a feeling they are underestimating how far it will go down.





Please keep your hands inside the cart as the bar comes down, and keep your hands inside the cart at all times, because this is going to be a wild ride. This is going to be anything but a boring day.
 
My opinion is that the specific number for the yen/dollar is less important than how fast it actually declines or rises. If it declines too fast, the hedgies have to unwind quickly and that could cause more mess.
 
<p>Winter 2008 PMI report is out</p>

<p><a href="http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/irol/63/63356/Winter_2008_ERET.pdf">http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/irol/63/63356/Winter_2008_ERET.pdf</a></p>

<p>From http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2008/01/riskiest-real-e.html</p>

<p><a href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/industries/finance/article/pmi-releases-winter-2008-risk-index_436962_9.html">PMI measures risk in terms of the probability that housing prices will be lower in two years. </a>These are the markets where PMI believes that's most likely to be the case: </p>

<p>1) Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario (94% chance of decline)


2) Las Vegas (89%)


3) Phoenix (83%)


4) Orange County (Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine) (81%)


5) Los Angeles (79%)</p>
 
I watch the futures market for the DOW every day. The selling since the beginning of the year has been systematic and orderly. In other words, it is professional selling. The general public is not freaking out yet and they are not participating in large volume, so the volatility has been somewhat measured. This is very reminiscent of the decline in the 4th quarter of 2000 when all the professionals unloaded their positions as the economy slowed down.
 
Mortgage meltdown: Now the rents

More fallout from the current housing slump - the cost of renting a home stagnated in 2007, according to an exclusive report for CNNMoney.



<p><a href="http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/16/real_estate/rents_flat/index.htm?postversion=2008011615">http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/16/real_estate/rents_flat/index.htm?postversion=2008011615</a></p>

<p>=======================</p>

<p>SoCal rents jump at 6.1% annual rate in December</p>

<p>http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/01/16/socal-rents-jump-at-61-rate-in-december/</p>
 
<p>IR,</p>

<p>I made that exact point to my wife last night. The drops in the DJIA are never more than 2-3%; not enough to start a panic while still allowing profit gained over the last year to be taken out. It appears to be a nice, orderly withdrawal.</p>

<p>I'm wondering though... will this prevent a massive crash from occuring in the future?</p>
 
<p>Support unlikely for raising Fannie, Freddie loan limits</p>

<p><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/support-unlikely-raising-fannie-freddie/story.aspx?guid=%7B86F480D1%2DB43D%2D4775%2D8CA6%2D25B364C01F67%7D">http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/support-unlikely-raising-fannie-freddie/story.aspx?guid=%7B86F480D1%2DB43D%2D4775%2D8CA6%2D25B364C01F67%7D</a></p>
 
<p>Nude--I was thinking about this myself.</p>

<p>But if we lose another 3,000 points or more, does it matter if it's done by the Chinese water torture method, or by a big old fashioned crash?</p>

<p>I guess there is less panic. Perhaps less fear. Most individuals own via mutual funds (not me). So maybe there will not be an overshoot on the downside, and a quicker recovery.</p>

<p>I heard someone on TV call Bush Hoover today, something I have been muttering about for weeks.</p>
 
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