Headlines...

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
<p>Doh! </p>

Merrill swings to $10 billion record loss

<p>Nation's largest brokerage gets battered by $14.6 billion in writedowns; hires former Goldman risk officer.</p>

<a href="http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/17/news/companies/merrill_earnings/index.htm?cnn=yes">Link</a>
 
Biggest drop in new homebuilding in 27 years

Drop of 24.8 percent in 2007 from prior year second-biggest on record



<p>http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22705772/</p>
 
<p>Some eyebrow raising graphs over at <a href="http://piggington.com/">http://piggington.com/</a></p>

<p>Especially given the fact that OC has tended to follow the SD trends in the past...</p>

<p><img alt="" src="http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/storyart/dec07foreclosures.jpg" /><img alt="" src="http://piggington.com/images/dec07prsqft.gif" /><img alt="" src="http://piggington.com/images/dec07prsqftlt.gif" /></p>

<p> </p>
 
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aKTGgOD1teG4">Appraiser Exposes Toxic Debt Tie to Inflated Values</a> </p>

<p><em>Home appraiser Julian ``Tony'' Perez conjured $7.5 million out of thin air in the first six months of 2001 by overvaluing 33 condominiums in the Atlanta area. </em></p>

<p><em>...</em></p>



<p><em>Perez and appraisers like him helped exaggerate U.S. mortgage values by as much as 10 percent, or $135 billion, in 2006, according to Susan Wachter, a real estate professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School in Philadelphia. Such appraisals artificially inflated the value of collateral supporting mortgage-backed securities and are contributing to record foreclosures because borrowers end up owing more than their houses are worth.</em></p>
 
<p> INteresting link from ex-Tangelo<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2008/01/16/shelter/#comment-47944"></a> on the <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2008/01/16/shelter/#comment-48160">http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2008/01/16/shelter/#comment-48160</a> thread<!--

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Lenders Rethink Home-Equity Loans

<p>ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB120044716100193017.html?mod=homes_left_column_hs</p>
 
<p>Welll, at least it's fair, no penalty for renting vs. homeowner.</p>

<p>Bush Wants Personal Tax Rebates


Thursday January 17, 4:57 pm ET


By Jeannine Aversa and Andrew Taylor, Associated Press Writers </p>

<p>Bush Wants Tax Rebates, Business Tax Breaks in Stimulus Package; Bernanke Sees Need for Aid </p>

<p>http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080117/economy_stimulus.html</p>
 
<p>DQ California Median drops 15%</p>

<p><a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22712082/">http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22712082/</a></p>

<p>I call it a decent start.</p>

<p>SCHB</p>
 
<p>Sorting Out the New Housing Market </p>

<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/18/business/18norris.html?_r=3&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin">http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/18/business/18norris.html?_r=3&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin</a></p>

<p>The ideal home buyer now — in a reverse of what was true for years — is a renter who is not burdened with a house.</p>

<p>...</p>

<p>Selling one house depends on the buyer’s selling another house, and that deal in turn depends on yet another sale, and so on and so on. </p>

<p>A failure to get a mortgage approved at any stop along the way can halt the sales of an entire series of homes.</p>
 
<p>Interesting, an all stated income market with a high of $1579 / sq. ft. is now in freefall...... makes ours look tame by comparison</p>

<p>Beijing Leads the Housing Price Drop </p>

<p><a href="http://www.chinastakes.com/story.aspx?id=155">http://www.chinastakes.com/story.aspx?id=155</a></p>

<p>The report pointed out that, since September last year, the government had picked up its adjustment on the housing market, and after that the trading volume of houses decreased dramatically. Last December, housing prices went down by 17% in Beijing compared with that of previous month. </p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Furthermore, an earlier survey by the institution shows that 53.61% of interviewees held the “wait and see” attitude, with only 1.57% (lowest rate in recent years) of buyers claiming that they purchased houses as a short term investment.</p>

<p>=============</p>

<p>Buying Into China's Land Rush</p>

<p><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120061688989099229.html?mod=todays_us_nonsub_weekendjournal">http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120061688989099229.html?mod=todays_us_nonsub_weekendjournal</a></p>

<p>And since the government owns all the land in China, real-estate purchases are technically very long-term leases, usually up to 70 years.</p>

<p>=============</p>

<p>Quote from an old link (<a href="http://www.newsobserver.com/business/story/795070.html">http://www.newsobserver.com/business/story/795070.html</a>)</p>

<p>New apartments north of Shanghai's famous Bund waterfront are selling for a record $17,000 per square meter.</p>

<p>...</p>

<p>Because China lacks a comprehensive credit data system, borrowers often qualify for loans using false information, Yi says. He thinks the quality of property loans in China might be worse than the risky mortgages that are causing so much trouble in the U.S. </p>

<p>"I estimate that the large majority of mortgage holders would not meet the standards for even subprime loans," Yi said in an interview with the state-run magazine Oriental Outlook.</p>
 
<p>Dont' miss this link NoWow!way posted on "The Beast" thread.</p>

<p>Babyboom and bust by the Economist.</p>

<p><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10534992">http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10534992</a></p>

<p> </p>
 
For my fellow ubernerds, <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2008/el2008-01.html">here is the new Fed Reserve economic letter</a> with more details, and projections.
 
Oh... my gawd, the US markets may be closed today, but all the other markets are open. <a href="http://tinyurl.com/33mxrs">The Asian markets were bleeding red, er more like gushing blood</a>. The Hang Seng was down almost 1400 points, and you all remember the first time China sneezed with a near 500 point drop. The Nikkei was down over 500 points. Damn... even oil on the NYMEX is under $90. <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?column=Europe+Markets">Europe is bleeding too</a>, not gushing, but close.





The US futures are looking pretty ugly too. But, it is too early to tell. Although, if they hold true, then it will be a brutal Tuesday.
 
Today was a half-day holiday session for the DOW futures, but they still managed to trade down 517 points. The volume was low because it was a holiday, but this is an unusually large drop, and it foretells of even more selling early this week.
 
<p><a class="image" title="Book Cover" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:ALEXANDER_TERRIBLE_HORRIBLE.jpg"><img height="152" alt="Book Cover" width="200" border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/2/25/ALEXANDER_TERRIBLE_HORRIBLE.jpg/200px-ALEXANDER_TERRIBLE_HORRIBLE.jpg" /></a></p>

<p>A good day to stay in bed, and pull the covers over your head, Nude?</p>
 
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