Headlines...

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
<p>http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/01/AR2008010101303.html?hpid=opinionsbox1</p>

<p>"We're not selling shelter," says the president of Toll Brothers, a builder of upscale homes. "We're selling extreme-ego, look-at-me types of homes." In 2000, Toll Brothers' most popular home was 3,200 square feet; by 2005, it had grown 50 percent, to 4,800 square feet. These "McMansions" often feature marble floors, sweeping staircases, vaulted ceilings, family rooms, studies, home entertainment centers and more bedrooms than people. </p>
 
<p>This morning, I heard a guy on bubblevision saying how a weak dollar is good for manufacturing and the economy. Is our educational system at fault for all these morons, or is that just television?</p>
 
<p>It's just television.</p>

<p>The Black Swan guy says not to bother with any newspapers etc., the info offerred is worthless. How true!</p>

<p>But I have to vote for somebody. Who? I don't think any of them will be able to deal with econonomic disaster any better than Bush, and that is really saying something.</p>

<p> </p>
 
<p> </p>

<p>WASHINGTON - Hiring practically stalled in December, driving the nation's unemployment rate up to a two-year high of 5 percent and fanning fears of a recession. </p>

<p>http://forums.irvinehousingblog.com/discussion/128/36/headlines/#Item_32</p>
 
lawyerliz - I don't expect any politician to be able to deal with the economy. I want them to get the flock out of the way.
 
<p>They won't. in fact, they can't because the electorate will be screaming for something to be done. The most one can hope for is the least bad thing to be done, and to me, that is building infrastructure hugely. Some of the FDR projects are still around and still in use.</p>

<p>The infrastructure needs work anyhow. 2 birds with one stone. And tho I have nothing against immigrants, care should be taken that jobs generated will be to legals.</p>
 
<p>The White House disagrees. . . champagne for everyone by mid-2008. The time to buy is yesterday, actually no. . time to buy was last week. So you are already late, you need to buy two houses. My heroine is Connie DeGroot.</p>

<p><strong>Housing Slump May Bottom by Mid-Year: Bush Adviser</strong></p>

<p><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/22504387">www.cnbc.com/id/22504387</a></p>

<p>""Housing has been unfortunately a negative and that should stop probably in the next six months," he said"</p>
 
<p><strong><em>This morning, I heard a guy on bubblevision saying how a weak dollar is good for manufacturing and the economy. Is our educational system at fault for all these morons, or is that just television?</em></strong></p>

<p>Depending on the industry, this has some merit. As the value of the dollar declines, goods in the United States become more attractive in terms of buying power in Europe and Asia (without taking parity into consideration). As the demand for American goods ramps up as a result of a falling dollar, employment (especially in the consumer goods sector) should rise. </p>
 
<p>NEW YORK <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080104/ts_alt_afp/commoditiesoilpriceoffbeat">(AFP)</a> - A lone trader out to win a little fame made the purchase that took oil prices to the historic 100 dollars a barrel level this week but he lost 600 dollars on the deal, analysts said. <strong>Doh!</strong></p>

<p><strong>I stand by my New Year's prediction that oil will peak at $110 a barrel in 2008.</strong></p>
 
<p>Seventhree-</p>

<p>Goods produced in the United States would still be considered luxury items no matter what the exchange rate is with Europe and Asia. Our labor costs cannot drop low enough to compete with Mexico, much less places like (jnsert third world country here) and that premium must be added to any exported goods. As luxury items, they are subject to the ebb and flow of those economies that import them. Any benefit of a weak dollar will be shortly offset by the cost of importing raw materials and the negative effect a weak dollar has on the world's economy. If a weak dollar gets low enough, commodities produced in the United States will begin to exported at fantastic rates as the producers of those commodities get better prices internationally than they do domestically. That's going to raises prices on everything you buy, from cereal to milk to butter to gasoline to coal to electricity to sugar. This not good for the economy. This is not good for manufacturing, except in the short term. This is the kind of problem that causes foreign politicians to enact protectionist legislation to protect their own domestic production and sets off trade wars and turns recessions into depressions. That some talking head said this is a good thing is disturbing in and of itself; either he is trying to sell something to someone or he was brought on specifically to provide spin. He simply cannot be that stupid.</p>
 
Here it is, folks...<a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/01/04/realtor-watts-eyes-pent-up-housing-demand/">Gary Watts' 08 outlook</a>:





"My forecast for 2007 appears to have been too rosy!" LOL





In case any are interested, I <a href="http://www.southoctracker.com/2008/01/eye-on-eyeball-07.html">posted recapping </a>what Lansner's experts had to say last year about 2007.
 
Toyota <a target="_blank" href="http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/news-blog/toyota-punts-3-sales-growth-for-08-prediction/">drops</a> 3% sales growth prediction for 2008.
 
<p>I didn't need a crystal ball to know Gary's ilk would be trotting out the "pent up demand" card in earnest soon. It could be seen a mile away and it just starting.</p>

<p>In case anyone hasn't read my rebuttal, <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2007/10/29/the-supply-side-postponements-and-pent-up-supply/">here you go</a>.</p>

<p>SCHB</p>
 
Dirty Deeds

<p>The mortgage crisis has blighted the landscape with boarded-up houses. Now a few cities are holding giant lenders accountable for what foreclosure leaves behind </p>



<p><a href="http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_02/b4066046083770.htm">http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_02/b4066046083770.htm</a></p>

<p>While the statute makes no reference to lenders, Nowak contends that the letters banks send to defaulting homeowners threatening to boot them from their houses show that they have begun to "assert some measure of control." On this premise, Nowak says, Buffalo began contacting banks "en masse" about foreclosed properties, but "a lot of times we'd just be rebuffed and ignored." </p>

<p>Cooper, as an intern, suggested a tactic that the judge adopted. When banks ignored summonses for code violations, Nowak began entering default judgments against them and imposing the maximum fine, which can reach $10,000 to $15,000. For a big bank, that's not much. The real pain comes because the fines give the city a lien that impedes the banks' ability to buy or sell other properties in the area. In addition, when lenders come to his court to get residents evicted from a particular property, Nowak refuses to grant the request until the bank addresses violations outstanding on other properties. Judge Pianka employs similar tactics in Cleveland. On Dec. 10, for example, he assessed a $50,000 fine against an absentee defendant, Mortgage Lenders Network USA, for 21 code violations at a home. </p>

<p></p>

<a id="nextBtn" href="http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_02/b4066046083770_page_3.htm"></a>
 
<p><a href="http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2008/01/05/more-on-the-future-of-mortgages/">http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2008/01/05/more-on-the-future-of-mortgages/</a></p>

<p><strong>Leamer: </strong>The big issue in mortgage finance will be the recognition that low-down/no-down loans convert the homeowner to a renter with an option to buy. Essentially lenders sold a very cheap at the money “put” to the homeowner. With little or no appreciation that option has a great deal of value and won’t be given away to borrowers. Over the next few years mortgage spreads on low-down loans will be much wider than previously.</p>
 
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