Great Park Neighborhoods

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Put my name down at the Great park for roundtree and Birch Trail.  Not sure which to pick.. or if I should wait out for the older communities to come down on price.  Seems like other homes in Irvine are going for 100-200K more for equivalent!  I don't like paying those high MR but it seems like a wash with the pricing that is out there.
 
Going into spring, I really don't think prices will see a downswing unless rates skyrocket past 5%.  Stock market is doing really well so a decline in home values don't seem likely in Irvine, at least at this point.  New homes will keep resales from getting as much as they could be getting and in 2014, Orchard Hills, other side of Great Park, Tustin Legacy, and many others will be opening up shop for more new builds.

You can get a Birch Trail home right now for around 720k if you walk in but those are all motorcourt homes.  Roundtree at least has a driveway but those are now going around 800k for Plan 1s.
 
There are new homes and recently bought/resell homes that are now just sitting on the market.  I love Irvine but can't imagine people just lining up for 1M homes.. but we'll see. 
 
jmoney74 said:
There are new homes and recently bought/resell homes that are now just sitting on the market.  I love Irvine but can't imagine people just lining up for 1M homes.. but we'll see.
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It's almost always been that way. Certain sellers would rather be patient than seller at a lower, more competitive price. There is nothing stopping a seller from asking a WTF price and clogging up the MLS with unsaleable homes.

Good homes at a good price tend to fly off the market no matter what.
 
paperboyNC said:
jmoney74 said:
There are new homes and recently bought/resell homes that are now just sitting on the market.  I love Irvine but can't imagine people just lining up for 1M homes.. but we'll see.
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It's almost always been that way. Certain sellers would rather be patient than seller at a lower, more competitive price. There is nothing stopping a seller from asking a WTF price and clogging up the MLS with unsaleable homes.

Good homes at a good price tend to fly off the market no matter what.
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well something is causing the slowdown in sales at the great park. so it does appear that people are no longer lining up for $1M homes.
 
How did Stonegate do for the first year or so?  I went to Birch Trail last week and they didn't really have a waiting list anymore.  The first phase gave some attractive pricing but that has gone up since.. maybe people are being more picky with lots, etc, since they are paying the premium compared to the earlier pricing.  If only Captain Hindsight were here.  ;)
 
I posted this in the 2014 Spring Pricing thread but there is an ebb/flow to new homes sales that I've noticed over the years.

The first one that opens is hot out the gate then the others are slower but once the first one sells out, the secondaries pick up steam and then it starts all over again.

2010 Collection sold out quick because The Irvine Company had stopped building for a few years (What? Builders never stop building. :) )

Then Stonegate and Laguna Altura came online (the 2011 Irvine Pacific Collection) and it was slow at first but picked up after about 6 months to a year (I believe Lambert Ranch was also around this time).

Cypress Village opened up and was brisk at first and then slowed down... PP opened up, sold throught the first few phases and also slowed down. I expect both of these to pick up again this year through the summer/fall.

If Orchard Hills does open this year, I think the first phases will be hot and then as it moves to winter, a slowdown and then picks up again 2015 (probably when we'll see Northwood Paseo).

I expect the next Great Park hood to open up in about a year or so once PP sells out.

There is also Tustin Legacy that will be coming online.

But if I were a builder, I would make my price point around mid $700k for an SFR... hard to find those in Irvine.
 
i think there is still plenty of demand, just not at these prices. i think its the combo of fast price increases over the last year and the rise in interest rates over the last 6 months or so. there seems to be plenty of folks on this board looking to buy.
 
notTHEoc said:
Sales slow by design of builders. If sales never slowed at PP after opening, then builders are leaving too much money on the table.

It would be different if there were lots of quick move ins and no new phase releases anywhere but afaik that is not the case.
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i dont know. a lot of these builders are public and there is a tremendous amount of pressure to hit quarterly/annual guidance.  i can see a private company like Shappell doing that but not necessarily public builders. you strike when the iron is hot.
 
OpenSky said:
irvinehomeowner said:
If Orchard Hills does open this year, I think the first phases will be hot and then as it moves to winter, a slowdown and then picks up again 2015 (probably when we'll see Northwood Paseo).
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Why so late? I thought the plan was for July/August 2014?
http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,3654.msg54878.html#msg54878
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I think it depends on the sales pace of Stonegate and Cypress Village. If those are still up... they may hold off on Northwood Paseo... I just find it strange they would open that so close to Orchard Hills but they did it with Stonegate and Cypress Village.

And given the pressure of GP, that thread is probably correct about a 2014 opening... but nothing is guaranteed.
 
bones said:
irvinehomeowner said:
OpenSky said:
irvinehomeowner said:
If Orchard Hills does open this year, I think the first phases will be hot and then as it moves to winter, a slowdown and then picks up again 2015 (probably when we'll see Northwood Paseo).
Click to expand...

Why so late? I thought the plan was for July/August 2014?
http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,3654.msg54878.html#msg54878
Click to expand...
I think it depends on the sales pace of Stonegate and Cypress Village. If those are still up... they may hold off on Northwood Paseo... I just find it strange they would open that so close to Orchard Hills but they did it with Stonegate and Cypress Village.

And given the pressure of GP, that thread is probably correct about a 2014 opening... but nothing is guaranteed.
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I think Northwood Paseo is a go according to the date they gave.  They're outsourcing a lot of Cypress Village - esp the smaller stuff and SG is almost out of land.
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In Orchard Hills, the new detached condos (similar to Cypress Village, not Jade Court) will be start high 700k by Irvine Pacific or in IP Neighborhoods.  They just finished up the focus groups from a local Costa Mesa market research company and a girl that works there are saying their price point for these are in this range.  Attached being in low 600s.

Cambria is still selling their attached product 3bd 3ba for 650k.

True SFRs will certainly be over mid $900k to $1 million in any of these IP neighborhoods.  By spring, I believe high 900s for phase 1 minimum.

To think that they would under price their own offerings now would be crazy.

 
never thought I'd see middle/upper middle class people just going after homes close to $1M homes. 
 
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