Economic Commentary

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="BondTrader" date=1249528315]*Stop watching CNBC</blockquote>


Ahhh... but you have to watch it when the likes of <a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/">Barry Ritholtz</a> are on there. I'd take the over on him making Larry Kudlow's head explode one day. That is if Larry lets him back on his show, he kinda banned him there for a while. Oh... and the <a href="http://www.lyadvisors.com/">chart lady</a> is a must see. There are other guests that are worth watching too. Dennis Kneale and his crusade against the anonymous bloggers... well... I have already said if I ever run across him I will kick him in the nuts, and now with his Nazi like crusade against anonymous bloggers... I will kick him in the nuts so hard they will come out his nose. F*ck him. He is a giant douche. I really miss Eric Bolling, and can't belive he went to the faux news.[/rant]



On a side note: Asia and the Euro markets are up, but the S&P futures are down and the Dow futures are up slightly.
 
I specifically can't watch CNBC anymore because of Larry the Luddite and Dennis Kneele. I frankly would rather watch Hannity on Fox News. Hannity's program is more balanced and better produced.
 
Thanks for all your concern about my health. I returned from a trip to China about 3 weeks ago. I was totally fine until last week, I probably caught the cold sleeping with my windows open. Don't try to scare me with the pig flu stuff, lol.



Equity market looks very toppy, over the short run I believe dollar should rally a little bit before China start balking again.
 
[quote author="BondTrader" date=1249600508]I returned from a trip to China about 3 weeks ago. I was totally fine until last week, I probably caught the cold sleeping with my windows open. Don't try to scare me with the pig flu stuff, lol. </blockquote>


Dude, you can't get sick that way. You probably got HamThrax. Go get tested.
 
The market feels so volatile right now. Just a weird tension. Even just holding a stock a few hours to day trade makes me nervous.



I kind of liked it better when the green shoots brigade was in charge and there was no question they were going to make the market go up. Right now everything seems to be spinning out of control with contradictory price movements in different stocks.
 
[quote author="Oxtail" date=1249607049]The market feels so volatile right now. Just a weird tension. Even just holding a stock a few hours to day trade makes me nervous.



I kind of liked it better when the green shoots brigade was in charge and there was no question they were going to make the market go up. Right now everything seems to be spinning out of control with contradictory price movements in different stocks.</blockquote>


Well, when you knew 70% of the market is HFT (high frequency tradings, flash trading being one of them), the market will have to be volatile as GS and the gangs can move the market in one way or the other in seconds. They are front running your orders, keep that in mind before you buy or sell anything, foundamentals hardly matters these days. All you need to do is find a way to identify the money flow in/out a stock.
 
Interesting stats for Wednesday, August 5th:



Total NYSE volume - 7.8 billion

Trade volume for Citibank - 2.6 billion





Am I reading this wrong? 1/3rd of all volume on the NYSE was trading in ONE stock? Wow...
 
Best news of the day: <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/08/07/ben-stein-finally-expelled-from-ny-times/">Ben Stein booted from the NYT.</a>
 
[quote author="EvaLSeraphim" date=1249685484]Best news of the day: <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/08/07/ben-stein-finally-expelled-from-ny-times/">Ben Stein booted from the NYT.</a></blockquote>


I loved his indepth charcter in Ferris Buellers Day Off. The pinnacle of fine acting.

Whenever he talks about the economy I just laugh out loud. The man is a joke.
 
[quote author="bltserv" date=1249692438][quote author="EvaLSeraphim" date=1249685484]Best news of the day: <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/08/07/ben-stein-finally-expelled-from-ny-times/">Ben Stein booted from the NYT.</a></blockquote>


I loved his indepth charcter in Ferris Buellers Day Off. The pinnacle of fine acting.

Whenever he talks about the economy I just laugh out loud. The man is a joke.</blockquote>


It scares me when I agree with you.
 
Total Federal Reserve balance sheet assets for the week of August 12 of $1,990 billion (an increase of $13 billion from the prior week) consisting of:



Securities held outright: $1,373 billion (an increase of $107 billion MoM, resulting from $43.7 billion in new Treasury purchases, $53.8 billion increase in MBS and $9.4 billion in Agency Debt), or $18.6 billion increase sequentially



Net borrowings: $340.5 billion (a decline of $47 billion month over month)



Float, liquidity swaps, Maiden Lane and other assets: $277 billion (another record decrease of $83.7 billion month over month due to a continued reduction in Central Bank Liquidity Swaps ($32 billion) and ($52) billion in CPFF outstandings).The rate of decline sequentially has, however, slowed dramatically and was just $5.6 billion lower than the prior week (after a $37.7 billion reduction in the prior week). It appears the Fed has reached the threshold in removing Swap and CPFF liquidity.



Foreign central bank liquidity swaps have hit another lowest level since the Lehman bankruptcy ($76.2 billion), athough the rate of sequential decline has slowed to a crawl. We would not be surprised if next week the Fed indicated more liquidity was being pumped into CB Swaps.



Foreign holdings of US Securities decreased for the first time in 5 months by $299 million sequentially (weekly) to $2,809.9 billion from $2,810.2 billion in the prior month. Keep in mind in the same time period the Fed purchased over $16.6 billion of Treasuries, indicating that in the last week the Fed was the only purchaser of Treasuries. In a normal environment this would be a very troubling development.
<fieldset class="gc-fieldset">
<legend> Attached files </legend> <a href="http://www.talkirvine.com/converted_files/images/forum_attachments/400_1aWpIEwgYs2pkiPW2KXk.jpg"><img src="http://www.talkirvine.com/converted_files/images/forum_attachments/400_1aWpIEwgYs2pkiPW2KXk.jpg" class="gc-images" title="SP32-20090814-093015.jpg" style="max-width:300px" /></a> </fieldset>
 
<blockquote>Fed was the only purchaser of Treasuries. In a normal environment this would be a very troubling development.</blockquote>




uh oh
 
I hate to sound like a conspiracy nut, but ...

I can not shake the feeling that the Fed is funding the swaps in exchange for the foreign central banks agreeing to purchase at the auctions.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1250303287]I hate to sound like a conspiracy nut, but ...

I can not shake the feeling that the Fed is funding the swaps in exchange for the foreign central banks agreeing to purchase at the auctions.</blockquote>


You hate to sound like a conspiracy nut? Man, I've been away from the forums too long. It seems

like only yesterday that I snapped your picture at an IHB meetup.



<img src="http://rlv.zcache.com/conspiracy_theorist_t_shirt-p235832534806211724qw9u_400.jpg" alt="" />
 
Some of you probably already seen this chart from other sources, I guess it's still worthy showing.



<strong>Plenty of debt left to eliminate to mean-revert</strong>



To determine how much debt needs to be extinguished from the household

balance sheet, we look at two scenarios. The first assumes we return to the longterm

trend on the household debt to income ratio. This would take the debt to

income ratio, currently at 131%, to 115% and would require the elimination of

$1.75 trillion of debt, assuming no change in disposable income. The second

scenario takes the debt to income ratio to the average seen in the 1990s, or 91%.

This assumes that this level is sustainable since it was the prevailing level prior to

the credit bubble. Reverting to 91% would require $4.35 trillion of debt elimination

assuming no change in disposable income.
<fieldset class="gc-fieldset">
<legend> Attached files </legend> <a href="http://www.talkirvine.com/converted_files/images/forum_attachments/403_aJRaWlrKRgyZNSJRY8W0.jpg"><img src="http://www.talkirvine.com/converted_files/images/forum_attachments/403_aJRaWlrKRgyZNSJRY8W0.jpg" class="gc-images" title="SP32-20090818-123209.jpg" style="max-width:300px" /></a> </fieldset>
 
[quote author="BondTrader" date=1250649229]Some of you probably already seen this chart from other sources, I guess it's still worthy showing.



<strong>Plenty of debt left to eliminate to mean-revert</strong>



To determine how much debt needs to be extinguished from the household

balance sheet, we look at two scenarios. The first assumes we return to the longterm

trend on the household debt to income ratio. This would take the debt to

income ratio, currently at 131%, to 115% and would require the elimination of

$1.75 trillion of debt, assuming no change in disposable income. The second

scenario takes the debt to income ratio to the average seen in the 1990s, or 91%.

This assumes that this level is sustainable since it was the prevailing level prior to

the credit bubble. Reverting to 91% would require $4.35 trillion of debt elimination

assuming no change in disposable income.</blockquote>I saw another version on I think, Zero Hedge. It is really quite odd that so many folks think the recession is over. As far as I can tell, we are at the top of the fourth inning.
 
Nobody's going to get fired for calling the bottom since everyone else is doing it. If you're wrong, who's going to remember?



Calling bottom is also good for business.
 
Secret confession time: I've had this thread bookmarked forever and would sneak back and read it from time to time.... where did bondtrader go?
 
[quote author="Nude" date=1252125116]Secret confession time: I've had this thread bookmarked forever and would sneak back and read it from time to time.... where did bondtrader go?</blockquote>


Ha, sorry I've been lazy the last couple weeks. Need to catch up.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top