https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IocCC1-jeTYmorekaos said:
Dow?
- Thread starter irvinehomeowner
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
That's exactly my point ... so if the market is up less than 2% on a given day , no need to be cheer leading either !
People with political blinders on will still deny that market is down 9% from its peak in January when everyone was high fiving each other on success of Trump tax cuts : )
That being said, bullish channel is still intact despite today's selloff . We are still hovering above 200-day S&P moving average of 2593 , but only barely so . I guess everyone is waiting for a Kudlow appearance on CNBC but may not happen this time ...
Kudlow just learned of Trump?s latest tariffs move last night
04/06/2018 12:59 PM EDT
National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears to have been blindsided by President Donald Trump?s threat to impose an additional $100 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports.
Asked by reporters Friday when he first learned of the president?s decision to instruct his top trade official to consider the new tariffs, Kudlow took a lengthy pause before responding: ?Last evening.? The White House statement announcing the move went out shortly after 6:30 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday.
The former CNBC contributor and Reagan administration official has spent the past few days as a self-described ?happy warrior? for Trump, who on Tuesday announced plans to hike tariffs by 25 percent on Chinese manufacturing imports and other products worth around $50 billion.
In a counterpunch on Wednesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping?s commerce department announced plans to level $50 billion in retaliatory tariffs on 106 imported American goods including aircraft, cars, chemicals and soybeans.
Kudlow, who early last month penned an op-ed warning against steep tariffs, has aggressively defended the president?s proposals to cable news anchors and gaggles of reporters outside the White House, attempting to calm markets and placate conservatives turned off by the seemingly anti-free trade maneuvers.
?This is not a trade war,? Kudlow said Friday. ?This process, it may include tariffs at the end of the day. It may also not. It may be solved by negotiation.?
Been saying this about inexperienced managers for around 2 years now...might be why the rate markets have been sluggish to react to the strong economic news, they have never had to.
Rising rates could be problematic because the typical money manager working today has never dealt with them before
The U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield rose to its highest level since 2011.
The median tenure of an active equity manager is eight years, according to Fundstrat, citing figures gathered from Morningstar.
"There are a lot of people that haven't been through many things in this youthful industry," notes Timothy Parton, a portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/15/us-rates-surge-and-most-portfolio-managers-dont-know-what-to-do.html
Other than morekaos predicting 30k for 12/31/18, anyone else have a guess?
Been at 25k most of the year... up or down?
up we go to 27k
Policy wise, a lot of moves have been done to increase profitability. GDP just came in at 4.1 percent. But the expansion is long in the tooth. Businesses are claiming to have problems hiring the talent they need, what they really mean is they have problems hiring the cheap young talent at the price they want.
From a market standpoint, at least the Dow viewpoint, it kind of consolidated in 2016 with back to back ten percent corrections and recoveries. Most of this year could be considered a consolidation with nearly a 10% correction. We drop off the peak back in early January so we've been moving laterally here for six months. If we consolidate up and break through 26,617 yea, 30K, if inflation turns ugly on the employment heat and we punch below 23,500, maybe down to 21,000. Overall I'd say about 80% we will be still here around 25,500.
All that goes out the window though with November.. If blue wave happens, tankville. If a Red wave happens, I also think tankville. If Dem majority happens in the Senate to create a gridlock situation, JIMHO, tankville. A status quo terse, slim Republican majority keeps the pro-business agenda moving forward without going off the rails into IMHO, whackadoodle land.
GM says new wave of Trump tariffs could force job cuts.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...-wave-of-tariffs-could-force-us-job-cuts.html
That's old news.
[quote author=Washington Post]
President Donald Trump and European leaders pulled back from the brink of a trade war over autos Wednesday and agreed to open talks to tear down trade barriers between the United States and the European Union.[/quote]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...1880eac5f1d_story.html?utm_term=.b7323e9d97bf
[/quote]
morekaos
Well-known member
morekaos
Well-known member
morekaos
Well-known member
nosuchreality
Well-known member
The Dow is off just under 400 points. OMG! As a percentage its less than 2% and historically is daily trading range.
nosuchreality said:
That's exactly my point ... so if the market is up less than 2% on a given day , no need to be cheer leading either !
People with political blinders on will still deny that market is down 9% from its peak in January when everyone was high fiving each other on success of Trump tax cuts : )
That being said, bullish channel is still intact despite today's selloff . We are still hovering above 200-day S&P moving average of 2593 , but only barely so . I guess everyone is waiting for a Kudlow appearance on CNBC but may not happen this time ...
Kudlow just learned of Trump?s latest tariffs move last night
04/06/2018 12:59 PM EDT
National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears to have been blindsided by President Donald Trump?s threat to impose an additional $100 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports.
Asked by reporters Friday when he first learned of the president?s decision to instruct his top trade official to consider the new tariffs, Kudlow took a lengthy pause before responding: ?Last evening.? The White House statement announcing the move went out shortly after 6:30 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday.
The former CNBC contributor and Reagan administration official has spent the past few days as a self-described ?happy warrior? for Trump, who on Tuesday announced plans to hike tariffs by 25 percent on Chinese manufacturing imports and other products worth around $50 billion.
In a counterpunch on Wednesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping?s commerce department announced plans to level $50 billion in retaliatory tariffs on 106 imported American goods including aircraft, cars, chemicals and soybeans.
Kudlow, who early last month penned an op-ed warning against steep tariffs, has aggressively defended the president?s proposals to cable news anchors and gaggles of reporters outside the White House, attempting to calm markets and placate conservatives turned off by the seemingly anti-free trade maneuvers.
?This is not a trade war,? Kudlow said Friday. ?This process, it may include tariffs at the end of the day. It may also not. It may be solved by negotiation.?
morekaos
Well-known member
morekaos said:
Been saying this about inexperienced managers for around 2 years now...might be why the rate markets have been sluggish to react to the strong economic news, they have never had to.
Rising rates could be problematic because the typical money manager working today has never dealt with them before
The U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield rose to its highest level since 2011.
The median tenure of an active equity manager is eight years, according to Fundstrat, citing figures gathered from Morningstar.
"There are a lot of people that haven't been through many things in this youthful industry," notes Timothy Parton, a portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/15/us-rates-surge-and-most-portfolio-managers-dont-know-what-to-do.html
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
lnc said:We still have 2 more weeks to go, but unless something happens, looks like DOW will go over 25,000.
And we all got it wrong in last December, we all predicted a little too low.
peppy said:
morekaos said:
lnc said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Other than morekaos predicting 30k for 12/31/18, anyone else have a guess?
Been at 25k most of the year... up or down?
irvinehomeowner said:lnc said:We still have 2 more weeks to go, but unless something happens, looks like DOW will go over 25,000.
And we all got it wrong in last December, we all predicted a little too low.
peppy said:
morekaos said:
lnc said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Other than morekaos predicting 30k for 12/31/18, anyone else have a guess?
Been at 25k most of the year... up or down?
up we go to 27k
Kings said:
inv0ke-epipen
New member
HODL
nosuchreality
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:
Policy wise, a lot of moves have been done to increase profitability. GDP just came in at 4.1 percent. But the expansion is long in the tooth. Businesses are claiming to have problems hiring the talent they need, what they really mean is they have problems hiring the cheap young talent at the price they want.
From a market standpoint, at least the Dow viewpoint, it kind of consolidated in 2016 with back to back ten percent corrections and recoveries. Most of this year could be considered a consolidation with nearly a 10% correction. We drop off the peak back in early January so we've been moving laterally here for six months. If we consolidate up and break through 26,617 yea, 30K, if inflation turns ugly on the employment heat and we punch below 23,500, maybe down to 21,000. Overall I'd say about 80% we will be still here around 25,500.
All that goes out the window though with November.. If blue wave happens, tankville. If a Red wave happens, I also think tankville. If Dem majority happens in the Senate to create a gridlock situation, JIMHO, tankville. A status quo terse, slim Republican majority keeps the pro-business agenda moving forward without going off the rails into IMHO, whackadoodle land.
nosuchreality said:
GM says new wave of Trump tariffs could force job cuts.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...-wave-of-tariffs-could-force-us-job-cuts.html
nosuchreality
Well-known member
eyephone said:
That's old news.
[quote author=Washington Post]
President Donald Trump and European leaders pulled back from the brink of a trade war over autos Wednesday and agreed to open talks to tear down trade barriers between the United States and the European Union.[/quote]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...1880eac5f1d_story.html?utm_term=.b7323e9d97bf
[/quote]
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Since this is the OG Dow thread and we have quite a few predictions in here:
So for 2017, most of us under predicted. It looks like for 2018, we have over predicted.
So what is 2019 going to look like?
Anyone want to make any mid-year and end-year calls for 2019?
irvinehomeowner said:lnc said:We still have 2 more weeks to go, but unless something happens, looks like DOW will go over 25,000.
And we all got it wrong in last December, we all predicted a little too low.
peppy said:
morekaos said:
lnc said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Other than morekaos predicting 30k for 12/31/18, anyone else have a guess?
Been at 25k most of the year... up or down?
So for 2017, most of us under predicted. It looks like for 2018, we have over predicted.
So what is 2019 going to look like?
Anyone want to make any mid-year and end-year calls for 2019?
To be fair , nearly every Wall Street strategist under predicted 2017 so TI forecasters record is no worse there.
Human Tendency is to add a small average anchored around 5 percent plus minus for next year
This applies for not just stocks - but also interest rates
We are all victims of ?Recency Bias? and ?availability bias? meaning affected by what?s happening now and whats most visible to us ... everything else doesn?t process .
Human Tendency is to add a small average anchored around 5 percent plus minus for next year
This applies for not just stocks - but also interest rates
We are all victims of ?Recency Bias? and ?availability bias? meaning affected by what?s happening now and whats most visible to us ... everything else doesn?t process .