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morekaos said:
morekaos said:
from my January letter...

So what lies ahead?  As I told many of you during the year. Presidents inherit the business cycle they inherit.  If there is recession he gets the blame. If expansion he tries to take credit.  This market was going to rise no matter who won. The influence of an executive policy comes in the form of magnitude.  He can throw water on it and slow it down, or gas on it and increase the reaction.  This President is throwing gas in the form of lower taxes and regulations.  I feel this is net positive for our markets this year and they will again advance.  Interest rates will rise at a faster pace than most think but fear not,  that is a good thing overall.  Normalized rates are a sign of a healthy economy.  I?m off the precious metals positions and I feel energy will find stability here.  This year will only strengthen domestically and I still shy from foreign investments. Keep it here in dollars and the good old US of A.  Most surprises this year may be on the positive side. Again, I caveat this letter that our direction can be altered by any number of unexpected events (major terrorist strike) but all things being equal I think we are in for a well-deserved run.  What makes me so optimistic?  Most of you know what a contrarian I am and look at the mood of most on Wall Street..

Despite Trump euphoria, Wall Street's 2017 forecast is the most bearish annual outlook in 12 years

Even after post-election animal spirits boosted the S&P 500 to a near double-digit annual return in 2016, Wall Street's soothsayers ? equity strategists ? are the most bearish on equities for 2017 as they have been about a year since 2005.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/03/streets-2017-forecast-is-the-most-bearish-annual-outlook-in-12-years.html

That?s got me fired up.  Whatever happens this should be fun.  2017 is upon us, Let?s enjoy life.

Best wishes in this new year!!!
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From my 2018 client letter

Soooooo?how did we do?  I think if you take one look at your statements this month the answer is pretty clear.  Market up 28%, hmmm, I guess the bearish mood of wall street was wrong (again).  Tax reform and de-regulation have thrown gas on an already expanding economy and the results are astonishing but not surprising.  Interest rates rose, with 3 hikes from the Fed but bonds still managed to eke out single digit gains.  Precious metals and oil both saw stability and gains.  Even foreign investments saw substantial returns this year.  Most every asset class did well but one?cash, CD and money market investors who sat on the sidelines and once again netted less than 1% on their money.  I think I kept my batting average at around .800 .  What a great year it was!!! ?Getting off the fence? in 2016 has sure paid off, would you not agree?
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Russia hacked our economy!!
 
I hate markets like this.  Very hard to make money. But the Apple announcement is extremely bullish for the year.
 
I also hate volatile markets (in either direction), but over the years I've learned to stop trading and continue investing.  Sorry but buy and hold is not dead and it always wins in the long term.
 
morekaos said:
I hate markets like this.  Very hard to make money. But the Apple announcement is extremely bullish for the year.
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This is a great market to make money selling vix options...the more volatility the bigger the option premiums.  :D
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
morekaos said:
I hate markets like this.  Very hard to make money. But the Apple announcement is extremely bullish for the year.
Click to expand...

This is a great market to make money selling vix options...the more volatility the bigger the option premiums.  :D
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USC,

I've seen you post many times about your success in VIX options. How difficult was this for you to learn? Do you have any suggestions on resources to learn more?
 
iacrenter said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
morekaos said:
I hate markets like this.  Very hard to make money. But the Apple announcement is extremely bullish for the year.
Click to expand...

This is a great market to make money selling vix options...the more volatility the bigger the option premiums.  :D
Click to expand...

USC,

I've seen you post many times about your success in VIX options. How difficult was this for you to learn? Do you have any suggestions on resources to learn more?
Click to expand...

I've done a lot of reading online over 10 years ago, mainly from googling vix and how it works.  Best knowledge I picked up was actually trading the vix options first hand and taking my lumps along the way which were great learning lessons.  Read up on the vix and see if it's even something you want to get into.  One of the big advantages of VIX profits is that 60% of all gains are treated as long-term cap gains even if the trade is done for a minute.  There's a lot of different things you can do with the VIX...buy options, sell naked options, straddles, strangles, iron condors, wedges, calendar spreads, etc.  If you know what you are doing you can make money trading in any kind of market...up, down, or sideways.  I've been trading these things since 2007 and even with the huge VIX swings in 2008-2010 I managed to book gains in those years.  Each trade is a new learning experience for me, I never stop learning.  So I'd say read up and then dip your toes in the market to see if something for you.  My VIX trading is only for "at-risk" capital due to the nature of the instrument.  Hope that helps.
 
Buy the sell off. This is a welcomed blow off that clears out the weak hands. 10% plus would be healthy longer term. Nothing to fundamentally worry me.
 
This is bumping its feet right on support, Should hold so I don't think that 23500 will be seen in this move on a closing basis.
 
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