Dow?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
I've thought about cashing in most of my non-retirement investments and buying a rental but not sure it's worth it - housing market is high but then again so is stock market, so maybe its a wash, just seems like rental will be a better guarantee of income stream later.  Can't bring myself to cash out all my non-retirement investments though, would need to liquidate 80ish% for my down, too sad.
 
eyephone said:
paydawg said:
eyephone said:
eyephone said:
Sketchers stock drops!
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I placed a limit order on sketchers. Ha
(I like to roll the dice)
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Do you like the product?  No matter how low a stock price is, I'm not buying it unless I respect the company and its products.  My wife bought a pair of Sketcher walking shoes before our Europe trip and ended up hating them.  Their quality sucks and the service in their stores is even worse.
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Sketchers is starting to pay off for me.  ;)
(My initial thoughts buying this stock, the price point is reasonable for average person. When the price dropped previously, that was a good entry point. If a person asks me do I where sketchers? My answer will be no.)
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I just sold my Sketchers position. It jumped 38% today.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
So why is this not a bubble?

Or is it?
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wait for the tax cuts.. then we will push up to bubble arena.  The republicans won't fail us on that.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
So why is this not a bubble?

Or is it?
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Stocks are not in a bubble in the sense that a euphoria completely detached from reality does not yet exist among investors.  Stocks are overpriced though.  The reason is that the bond market is the most expensive it's ever been.  Most people are not factoring in what a 1% increase in rates would do to the economy.

I feel like a broken record because this argument has been made repeatedly for the past 5 years, but this time it looks like rates are really set to rise.  It could spell trouble.
 
Liar Loan said:
Stocks are not in a bubble in the sense that a euphoria completely detached from reality does not yet exist among investors.  Stocks are overpriced though.  The reason is that the bond market is the most expensive it's ever been.  Most people are not factoring in what a 1% increase in rates would do to the economy.
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Sure, but back 6 years ago, or even 4 years ago, we thought 13k-15k was high and bubbe-licious. We are at 23.5k... no one predicted over 20k and just a year ago, there were doubters it would break 20k, other than MoreKaos and USCTrojan, who I think were partly joking (well... maybe not MoreKaos, he did predict Trump).
 
High prices do not equal a bubble.  Prices have to go parabolic on the chart, which they have not done yet.  (Look at a chart of year 2000 Nasdaq, year 2005 real estate, or year 2011 gold as examples.)

Besides the predictions of anonymous posters on lightly trafficked forums don't constitute an indicator of anything.  :D

Lastly, we also thought rates were bottoming in 2013 because they spiked rapidly during the second half of the year after Bernanke's taper talk.  Had rates gone to 6% or higher, stocks would not be where they are today.
 
Here is what a bubble looks like:

NASDAQ Returns

1995 - 40%
1996 - 23%
1997 - 22%
1998 - 40%
1999 - 86%

Cumulative 5 year return - 441% !!
 
Bill Gross: The stock market is like 'an old-age retirement community'

The stock market's best days are likely behind it as central banks around the world take away the high levels of stimulus they've provided over the past decade, Janus Henderson portfolio manager Bill Gross said Wednesday.

"I'm not supporting a bear market, but sort of a market where you move into an old-age retirement community where the pace of activity and prices behave more maturely," he told CNBC's "Power Lunch" program. "So I think sort of the halcyon days are over."

The culprit, he said, is the Fed and its global cohorts finally pulling back on stimulus after years of bargain-basement interest rates and trillions in money printing. With that support fading, investors are going to have to get used to lower returns, he said.

"I think double-digit increases are over, simply because the credit cycle itself is pulling back," Gross said. "The Fed is raising interest rates, the Fed is reducing its balance sheet, the ECB is reducing its balance sheet by half and ultimately raising interest rates. These are slight negatives that argue against a continuing bull market."
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https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/15/bil...-is-like-an-old-age-retirement-community.html
 
Not shooting the messenger here buuuuttt I used to follow Gross very closely in the 90's to early 2000's...then he fell off a cliff and now I think he just might be crazy. ;)

'Bond King' Gross writes an ode to his dead cat, Bob

On Thursday, Gross dedicated the first half of his widely followed Investment Outlook letter to the cat and headlined it ?Bob.?

?Treasure your pets and all living things. Eventually we all stop living,? said Gross, who will celebrate his 70th birthday this month.

The cat, a female despite the name, died last week. The pet had been with Gross and his wife for 14 years.

?Aside from sleeping, Bob loved nothing more than to follow me from room to room making sure I was OK,? wrote Gross. ?It got to be a little much at times, especially when entering and exiting the shower.?

Gross said Bob?s ?obsession carried over to the TV, sensing when I was on CNBC and paying apt attention no less. I often asked her about her recommendations for pet food stocks, and she frequently responded - one meow for ?no,? two meows for a ?you bet.? She was less certain about
interest rates, but then it never hurt to ask.?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-investing-pimco-gross/bond-king-gross-writes-an-ode-to-his-dead-cat-bob-idUSBREA321A420140403
 
I agree he's not the most credible, and a lot of his calls on bonds have been subpar in the era of QE, but he's still worth listening to because his position aligns closely with mine in this one instance... LOL.
 
morekaos said:
from my January letter...

So what lies ahead?  As I told many of you during the year. Presidents inherit the business cycle they inherit.  If there is recession he gets the blame. If expansion he tries to take credit.  This market was going to rise no matter who won. The influence of an executive policy comes in the form of magnitude.  He can throw water on it and slow it down, or gas on it and increase the reaction.  This President is throwing gas in the form of lower taxes and regulations.  I feel this is net positive for our markets this year and they will again advance.  Interest rates will rise at a faster pace than most think but fear not,  that is a good thing overall.  Normalized rates are a sign of a healthy economy.  I?m off the precious metals positions and I feel energy will find stability here.  This year will only strengthen domestically and I still shy from foreign investments. Keep it here in dollars and the good old US of A.  Most surprises this year may be on the positive side. Again, I caveat this letter that our direction can be altered by any number of unexpected events (major terrorist strike) but all things being equal I think we are in for a well-deserved run.  What makes me so optimistic?  Most of you know what a contrarian I am and look at the mood of most on Wall Street..

Despite Trump euphoria, Wall Street's 2017 forecast is the most bearish annual outlook in 12 years

Even after post-election animal spirits boosted the S&P 500 to a near double-digit annual return in 2016, Wall Street's soothsayers ? equity strategists ? are the most bearish on equities for 2017 as they have been about a year since 2005.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/03/streets-2017-forecast-is-the-most-bearish-annual-outlook-in-12-years.html

That?s got me fired up.  Whatever happens this should be fun.  2017 is upon us, Let?s enjoy life.

Best wishes in this new year!!!
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From my 2018 client letter

Soooooo?how did we do?  I think if you take one look at your statements this month the answer is pretty clear.  Market up 28%, hmmm, I guess the bearish mood of wall street was wrong (again).  Tax reform and de-regulation have thrown gas on an already expanding economy and the results are astonishing but not surprising.  Interest rates rose, with 3 hikes from the Fed but bonds still managed to eke out single digit gains.  Precious metals and oil both saw stability and gains.  Even foreign investments saw substantial returns this year.  Most every asset class did well but one?cash, CD and money market investors who sat on the sidelines and once again netted less than 1% on their money.  I think I kept my batting average at around .800 .  What a great year it was!!! ?Getting off the fence? in 2016 has sure paid off, would you not agree?
 
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