Dow?

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The consensus of every financial reporter one year ago was that if Trump somehow managed to get elected it would cause the market to instantly crash.  So far after 9 months, the Dow is up 9%.
 
Liar Loan said:
The consensus of every financial reporter one year ago was that if Trump somehow managed to get elected it would cause the market to instantly crash.  So far after 9 months, the Dow is up 9%.
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really?  I mostly read otherwise.  Unless you're just on CNBC.. they really hate Trump. 

Most articles I read is that he will push the dow hire just based on tax reform and scaling back Dodd Frank.  I'm more worried about the the downside after it's all done. 
 
I agree with LL. I can tell you it was almost universal that there would be a Trump dump.

Trump Setting Up Repeat Of ?29 Market Crash: Nobel-Winning Economist

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/01/19/robert-shiller-donald-trump-stock-market-crash_n_14268676.html

What Happens to the
Markets if Donald Trump
Wins?

The conventional wisdom is that, right off the bat, the stock market would fall
precipitously. Simon Johnson, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist,
posited that Mr. Trump?s presidency would ?likely cause the stock market to crash
and plunge the world into recession.? He predicted that Mr. Trump?s ?anti-trade
policies would cause a sharp slowdown, much like the British are experiencing? after
their vote to exit the European Union.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/business/dealbook/what-happens-to-the-markets-if-donald-trump-wins.html
 
I doubt that you could find any MSM articles from last year predicting a higher stock market if Trump were elected.  It wasn't until the large pop right after the election that the MSM financial reporters changed their tune.
 
I was going back and looking at the first few pages of this thread and guess which stocks did the best out of:

AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, NFLX, DIS, AMZN, BBY

I was actually surprised.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
I was going back and looking at the first few pages of this thread and guess which stocks did the best out of:

AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, NFLX, DIS, AMZN, BBY

I was actually surprised.
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The start of the thread was 2011, by the 2nd page we're at 2013.  The results stay about the same, however I don't really see those in the first few pages.  I see a reference to wishing had bought in May 2013 for GOOGL and NFLX but the rest are even later references but loathe the impact to AAPL.

If you'd have bought those three on the start of the thread Jan 2011 and were looking at it in May 2013, you spent a year and a half with a 50% loser, spent a year and a half flip flopping between -20%/20% on another and watched the third double in that period to then start giving half the gain back. 

How's your stomach handle that ride?
 
I guess I was looking at 2015 posts... this thread is almost 1000 posts long so the posts I were referring to fall on page 4 (I have my settings at 50 posts per page).

We talked about AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, TGT and DIS. BBY was also mentioned and NFLX has its own thread.

Out of those, TGT was the loser, which surprised me. I don't mind the short term peaks/valleys because I would hold for the long haul but in just 2 years, some of those had some nice gains.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
qwerty said:
Iho  - what is there to explain? They were wrong. That's it. You always seem to get so hung up this stuff about people admitting they were wrong.
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Whoah... easy... I respect Panda's knowledge and want to hear WHY he was wrong... not THAT he was wrong.

When people take a stance and give you good reasons why (or sometimes not), when it doesn't turn out that way, it's educational to hear why they think things happened the way they happened.

I did not think the Dow would hit 15k either... but I didn't really see any reason why it would not hit 13k.

For example, Liar Loan doesn't think this run-up is sustainable and he explained the "why"... and he will explain the "why not" if it doesn't work out how he expected because that's how he is... and I learn from that.

Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market and I don't do option trading like USC so I have very little knowledge of the ins and outs of the market, so I ask these questions because I like to hear from those who know more than I do.

Don't get so "hung up" on my thirst for knowledge. :)
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Wow... Look at this blast from the past.  Everybody debating if the Dow would make it to 15k.  LOL..  I guess we were all wrong to some extent.

I have to admit, I was confident the Dow would hit 14k because that was the prior resistance level in late-2007, but I never thought it would climb this high before another crash set in.  I've participated in many of the gains, but also have risk mitigation measures in place, which have caused me to jump into bonds a couple of times along the way.  Anyway, may as well continue to ride this gravy train until the party stops.  Just make sure you're not the bagholder!

This is a chart I saw yesterday of the NASDAQ in constant 2000 dollars:

425640_5_.png


Based on this measure the NASDAQ is almost as overpriced as during the dotcom bubble.  (Although certain things have changed since then, like having actual earnings!)

Another popular measure, the Shiller PE10, puts the S&P 500 right at 1929 levels:

1502998549059.png


So there really is no debating that the market is overpriced now.  There are dozens of ways to measure stock market valuation, and they are all saying the same thing: Prices are historically high.

Anecdotally, Buffet has tons of cash sitting on the sidelines because he can't find compelling investment opportunities.  Other value investors are echoing the same story.

That means it's only a matter of time.  tic, tic, tic...
 
Just the market breathing. Can't inhale all the time.  The media will point all sorts of fingers, all of which don't matter. I'll buy the pullback, hope it drops some more.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
morekaos said:
Just the market breathing. Can't inhale all the time.  The media will point all sorts of fingers, all of which don't matter. I'll buy the pullback, hope it drops some more.
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+1
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USC.. you still play the VIX?
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Oh going back to this, you know who a big winner was?

BBY

I think most of us didn't think they would even be around anymore.
Click to expand...

that's a nice 5 year chart.  I still don't get how they are in business today.
 
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