Dow?
- Thread starter irvinehomeowner
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
I don't have enough money to invest in a second property and don't care for the risk/hassle. My primary home is my RE investment.
I don't think it's dumb but you should diversify your portfolio. Stocks are probably the best long-term investment return wise while bonds are the safest.
In the modern Fed era , not much . Trump tried to change that with appointment of Cain and then Moore but both blew up in his face .. the fed chairs generally operate independently. Best example volker who killed inflation in the late 70s early 80s and caused a mini recession while at it . Wasn?t politically popular at the time
As to fiscal ? that?s a long discussion . But in magnitude terms for the economy , Fed matters a lot more . But I will write about fiscal in part 2 of my reply (lengthier) . Have to go now .
So you think housing has bottomed?
At the macro /aggregate level, yes. And this is why homebuilder stocks are up big since October -- market looks 6-12 months ahead whereas most economists are chasing yesterdays data. Even the hated Toll brothers (because it is high end) is up ~30% since October.
I am not an Irvine market expert so I will leave that to you guys to decide...
Lower end has stabilized with slight price increases from the winter and I'm seeing more activity in the $1m-$1.5m market. As long as the stock market is flat to up and rates are flat to down I think real estate prices will be flattish.
I think the Fed learned a little lesson at the end of the year so now at the first signs of a downturn they'll be cutting rates.
Irvinecommuter
New member
zubs said:
I don't have enough money to invest in a second property and don't care for the risk/hassle. My primary home is my RE investment.
Irvinecommuter
New member
Mety said:
I don't think it's dumb but you should diversify your portfolio. Stocks are probably the best long-term investment return wise while bonds are the safest.
morekaos
Well-known member
Now this is news that we all should rejoice in, MAGA or anti-MAGA. This is a win all the way around...lets all hold hands.
U.S. creates 263,000 jobs in April, unemployment falls to 3.6%
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The economy generated a stronger than expected 263,000 new jobs in April, helping to drive down the unemployment rate to a 49-year low of 3.6%. The increase in new jobs easily topped the 217,000 MarketWatch forecast. The jobless rate slid from 3.8% in March to hit the lowest level since December 1969. The average wage paid to American workers rose 6 cents, or 0.2%, to $27.77 an hour. The 12-month rate of hourly wage gains was unchanged at 3.2%. Hours worked each week fell 0.1 hour in April to 34.4. The government revised the increase in new jobs in March to 189,000 from a preliminary 196,000. February's gain was raised to 56,000 from 33,000
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-creates-263000-jobs-in-april-unemployment-falls-to-36-2019-05-03
U.S. creates 263,000 jobs in April, unemployment falls to 3.6%
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The economy generated a stronger than expected 263,000 new jobs in April, helping to drive down the unemployment rate to a 49-year low of 3.6%. The increase in new jobs easily topped the 217,000 MarketWatch forecast. The jobless rate slid from 3.8% in March to hit the lowest level since December 1969. The average wage paid to American workers rose 6 cents, or 0.2%, to $27.77 an hour. The 12-month rate of hourly wage gains was unchanged at 3.2%. Hours worked each week fell 0.1 hour in April to 34.4. The government revised the increase in new jobs in March to 189,000 from a preliminary 196,000. February's gain was raised to 56,000 from 33,000
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-creates-263000-jobs-in-april-unemployment-falls-to-36-2019-05-03
I wasn?t active on this forum at the time ? but were you guys as much hyperventilating with joy when Obama was posting strong job gain numbers month after month ?
Or were people busy teabagging him and worrying about deficits back then ?
As I have long said , presidents don?t matter when it comes to economic cycles - central banks and fiscal spending matters a lot more . I have explained why in great detail in other threads over prior months ...
remember my comments about the Fed dovish pivot in November last year and how it will be very good for risk assets and will take away recession risk and lead to a bottoming out in housing .
Or were people busy teabagging him and worrying about deficits back then ?
As I have long said , presidents don?t matter when it comes to economic cycles - central banks and fiscal spending matters a lot more . I have explained why in great detail in other threads over prior months ...
remember my comments about the Fed dovish pivot in November last year and how it will be very good for risk assets and will take away recession risk and lead to a bottoming out in housing .
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
There wasn't as much political discussion back then because Obama wasn't as polarizing (in my opinion).
Our current president is a "Trumpster Fire" so that obviously creates much more debate.
Our current president is a "Trumpster Fire" so that obviously creates much more debate.
morekaos
Well-known member
This is where tone and tenure makes a difference. Presidents inherit the economy they inherit. If there was some magical button in the back of the Oval office that creates growth then every president would be pushing it every day. Where a President has influence is in Tax and regulatory policy. He sets the tone. No, denying it, Obama had job growth and expansion but by raising taxes and pushing massive regulation he muted the reaction from business. He got expansion but it always seemed anemic and agonizingly slow (the new normal). Obama was injected in to all areas of the economy. Energy, manufacturing, banking and services. In essence he poured water on his expansion. This guy is different in his style. He is pouring Gas on the fire through lower taxes and slashing regulation. The tone to business is different and they are not shy about it. You can argue the micro numbers all you want but that little change makes a difference in strategic decision making. Now, will there be a recession? Of course, but it will be more like ones we have had in the past. Sharp and fairly short. You cannot argue we are not in more "normal" cycles now. Look at what they are comparing these numbers to. Numbers not seen since the 60's, 70's, 80's and 90's....not 2000's. The old arguments of previous cycles like "sure, the economy is doing well...but not for everyone, people are being left behind." are back. This is more like the Reagan expansion, watch, I guarantee you that we will see the "Morning in America" commercial again.
https://youtu.be/EU-IBF8nwSY
https://youtu.be/EU-IBF8nwSY
https://youtu.be/EU-IBF8nwSY
https://youtu.be/EU-IBF8nwSY
zubs said:
In the modern Fed era , not much . Trump tried to change that with appointment of Cain and then Moore but both blew up in his face .. the fed chairs generally operate independently. Best example volker who killed inflation in the late 70s early 80s and caused a mini recession while at it . Wasn?t politically popular at the time
As to fiscal ? that?s a long discussion . But in magnitude terms for the economy , Fed matters a lot more . But I will write about fiscal in part 2 of my reply (lengthier) . Have to go now .
Most business owners , esp small
Business owners , lean republican. This heavily colors their view of business confidence surveys depending on which party is in charge , all else equal .
Obama had the added misfortune of being labeled a socialist by the right echo chamber and the racist tea party tropes .
Business owners , lean republican. This heavily colors their view of business confidence surveys depending on which party is in charge , all else equal .
Obama had the added misfortune of being labeled a socialist by the right echo chamber and the racist tea party tropes .
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
fortune11 said:
So you think housing has bottomed?
USCTrojanCPA said:
At the macro /aggregate level, yes. And this is why homebuilder stocks are up big since October -- market looks 6-12 months ahead whereas most economists are chasing yesterdays data. Even the hated Toll brothers (because it is high end) is up ~30% since October.
I am not an Irvine market expert so I will leave that to you guys to decide...
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
OCLuvr said:
Lower end has stabilized with slight price increases from the winter and I'm seeing more activity in the $1m-$1.5m market. As long as the stock market is flat to up and rates are flat to down I think real estate prices will be flattish.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
OCLuvr said:
I think the Fed learned a little lesson at the end of the year so now at the first signs of a downturn they'll be cutting rates.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Did we do predictions for where the Dow will be at the end of this year?