coronavirus

[irvinehomeowner]

So like I said... no one personally who has *died* from Covid (and I was referring to aqua and qwerty).

 

[Happiness]

So like I said... no one personally who has *died* from Covid (and I was referring to aqua and qwerty).

But wouldn't that experience taint a person's view of the pandemic?

In murder trials, counsel on both sides almost always agree to remove potential jurors who have a personal connection to a murder victim.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So like I said... no one personally who has *died* from Covid (and I was referring to aqua and qwerty).

But wouldn't that experience taint a person's view of the pandemic?

In murder trials, counsel on both sides almost always agree to remove potential jurors who have a personal connection to a murder victim.

Not even a close comparison. You're talking about a situation where objectivity is required to render a fair verdict.

We are talking about a global pandemic that has killed more people than anything in recent history and because they haven't experienced personal loss from it, they can't understand the full impact of the deaths of over 90k people in the US and over 300k worldwide... a good percentage of which can be avoided with adherence to proper protocols.

This is like nimbyism... as long as the people dying isn't someone we know, we should be able to do whatever we want.

And again, I fully support re-opening the economy as long as we do it safely, but I'm not going to say that locking down was not necessary because there are too many people out there who are too ignorant to observe safe behavior... those are the people who need to stay home... not the people who want to be safe.

 

[qwerty]

Are people that stupid that they have to be told to be more careful and rely on the government to tell them what to do? People in Asia have been wearing masks forever. They could have made up their minds on wearing gloves and keeping their distance from people.

Not sure why I?m even asking. People are that stupid.

So one can?t have an opinion on something unless they have gone through it? I don?t need to experience a death from covid to know what death feels like.
You? probably know the reference ESPN, you are using the Ric Barry argument, you didn?t play basketball so your opinion about all things basketball are less relevant than those who have played basketball

 

[eyephone]

Are people that stupid that they have to be told to be more careful and rely on the government to tell them what to do? People in Asia have been wearing masks forever. They could have made up their minds on wearing gloves and keeping their distance from people.

Thailand another third world country beat covid with no death cases.

Thailand reports 3 more Covid cases, no deaths Thursdayhttps://www.bangkokpost.com/thailan...reports-3-more-covid-cases-no-deaths-thursday


Also, Denmark beat covid.
Denmark reports no new coronavirus deaths for first time since Marchhttps://www.foxnews.com/world/denmark-reports-no-new-coronavirus-deaths-for-first-time-since-march

The purpose of my post is to show that there are countries that do not have to spend billions and trillions like the United States.

Open up the US economy, but enforce social distancing and wearing masks should be required. Maybe that is the winning formula. Currently there is no fine and punishment, that is why we are where we are. (Maybe there is a fine, but it is not being enforced.)

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Are people that stupid that they have to be told to be more careful and rely on the government to tell them what to do? People in Asia have been wearing masks forever. They could have made up their minds on wearing gloves and keeping their distance from people.

Not sure why I?m even asking. People are that stupid.

Exactly. Have you seen the videos of the graduations where people have thrown social distancing out the window and are not wearing masks?

So one can?t have an opinion on something unless they have gone through it? I don?t need to experience a death from covid to know what death feels like.
You? probably know the reference ESPN, you are using the Ric Barry argument, you didn?t play basketball so your opinion about all things basketball are less relevant than those who have played basketball

That's not what I'm saying... I didn't say your opinion is less relevant... just that you have a different perspective.

But there is merit to the Ric Barry argument... I will trust a medical professional's opinion over some guy who thinks flattening the curve means making his calves look skinny.

 

[nosuchreality]

@IHO, I asked the question way back about how many deaths before people think it was a mistake.

While I know not doing preventative would have made the deaths worse, we don?t know if it is an extra 50,000 deaths we avoided (or delayed), 200,000 extra deaths, or how close to those two million person body counts we would have gotten.

What we also don?t know is how much the economy would have contracted without the shelter orders. Anecdotally, much like Sweden, a sizable portion would have sheltered on their own.  Also like Sweden, when all your trading partners are in lockdown and global energy market is in the toilet, the bulk of the damage is going to get done anyway.

When you knee jerk and take action on models saying 2.2 million dead, or 25 million will be infected by May, 100,000 dead by end of May, JIMHO, isn?t victory. That isn?t sheltering worked, especially our half hearted compliance with all the essential workers still going every day and lines of people waiting on the stores, filling trails, etc.

If the virus comes back hard this fall we will pay dearly for the mistakes of the last three months at all levels of Government. It won?t be that it?s back, it will be that Government neutered themselves and burnt the little trust they had.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

@IHO, I asked the question way back about how many deaths before people think it was a mistake.

While I know not doing preventative would have made the deaths worse, we don?t know if it is an extra 50,000 deaths we avoided (or delayed), 200,000 extra deaths, or how close to those two million person body counts we would have gotten.

What we also don?t know is how much the economy would have contracted without the shelter orders. Anecdotally, much like Sweden, a sizable portion would have sheltered on their own.  Also like Sweden, when all your trading partners are in lockdown and global energy market is in the toilet, the bulk of the damage is going to get done anyway.

When you knee jerk and take action on models saying 2.2 million dead, or 25 million will be infected by May, 100,000 dead by end of May, JIMHO, isn?t victory. That isn?t sheltering worked, especially our half hearted compliance with all the essential workers still going every day and lines of people waiting on the stores, filling trails, etc.

This is a valid point of view. While it's not a victory... 100k at the end of May vs 200k or more at the end of May is *less* of a loss. And not just in lives, but also the economy. And it seems like the country disagrees on if we did not to enough... or we did too much. Even now as we are reopening, I believe the majority thinks it's too soon... so there is no "victory".

To me, based on the fact that even with the lockdown, there is still this many deaths,  there would be much more had we not taken action. And like Sweden, there would be the reactive economic contraction (and again, they did lockdown, it just wasn't as overtly mandated like ours) but then there would also be the panic and fear of so many people dying, the hospitals being overrun and while we would eventually (or hopefully) get it under control, the economy would have suffered even more than what is our current situation.

Again, qwerty never answered this, but almost a month prior to the government lockdowns, the Dow started tanking, if for the last 2.5 months instead of just sharing TikTok videos, you had videos similar to NYC where there were body bags everywhere in every state... how do you think the stock market would be right now?

And eyephone has posted these all over the place, but it is evident that places that had the strictest lockdowns had the lowest number of cases and deaths. We'll never know what a real "zero lockdown" would have looked like because not THAT many people are stupid (as qwerty puts it) but if they were... it could have been millions.

While we can hindsight this and call the 2.2m dead prediction as fear mongering, you can also call it an effective tactic to let people know how serious this was so they would observe safe behavior... mandated or not. I mean, no govt mandated hand washing/sanitizing but I bet ALL of you are doing it... even qwerty.

If the virus comes back hard this fall we will pay dearly for the mistakes of the last three months at all levels of Government. It won?t be that it?s back, it will be that Government neutered themselves and burnt the little trust they had.

I'm not sure what you are getting at here.

So do you think the governments should not have locked down? That it was a mistake? Please explain why.

 

[Kenkoko]

Science may never get us to a point where the most extreme fearmongers will be satisfied that normal life must start again. The only virus that mankind has ever eradicated is smallpox. Smallpox has no nonhuman repository so we were able to kill that virus using mass vaccination. We cannot vaccinate bats, pangolins, and the other billions of possible life forms on this planet that may be harboring covid 19 so good luck eradicating covid 19.  In 1347-50 the bubonic plague killed 60% of London?s population but London survived because the people went on with their lives despite the sickness and the deaths. If Londoners had waited until they were "safe" from the plague to resume normal life (that would be in the 1950s when penicillin started production), Londoners would probably have evolved into some Gollum-like creatures by the 1950s:

It's crazy to me how many people are trying to make their point by comparing COVID-19 to historical events hundreds of years ago. Even comparing it to the Spanish Flu of 1918 is ridiculous. But 14th century? Seriously?

The US life expectancy in 1917, before the pandemic, was 48.4 for men and 54.0 for women.

I am sure some of you run businesses. If people came to your office and try to sell you a product or an idea based on fact patterns from over 100 years ago, you'd tell them to GTFO.

 

[Happiness]

If the virus comes back hard this fall we will pay dearly for the mistakes of the last three months at all levels of Government. It won?t be that it?s back, it will be that Government neutered themselves and burnt the little trust they had.

I'm not sure what you are getting at here.

Aesop warned us in the 6th century BC (sorry Ken  ) about the boy who cried wolf. By deliberately spreading outlandishly false warnings hoping to scare people into changing their behavior, the government has become Aesop's "boy". When the wolf finally comes, no one will listen to the boy.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Thanks for the explanation Happiness.

But I?m not sure anyone but qwerty and morekaos think that C19 is a sheep.

When people are dying, I hope they know it?s a wolf.

 

[Kenkoko]

Aesop warned us in the 6th century BC (sorry Ken  ) about the boy who cried wolf. By deliberately spreading outlandishly false warnings hoping to scare people into changing their behavior, the government has become Aesop's "boy". When the wolf finally comes, no one will listen to the boy.

Institutional and government consensus sometimes is wrong and needs to be challenged. But taken too far can bring real negative consequences too.

The erosion of institutional trust hits us hard at a time when trust is exactly what we need. The collapse of institutional trust made COVID-19 worse.

People don't trust the government or the media to deliver the truth. People don't trust the schools to make the best decisions for kids. People don't even trust doctors, turning to politicians for medical advice. And unfortunately, people don't trust each other to do what's best for our collective interest, like wear freaking masks.

We need trusts & public buy-ins. And we need a more data centric / data driven approach. This is how other countries better managed COVID-19.

Data points from the 6th century, or the 14th century, or 1918 are bad data points.

 

[eyephone]

Aesop warned us in the 6th century BC (sorry Ken  ) about the boy who cried wolf. By deliberately spreading outlandishly false warnings hoping to scare people into changing their behavior, the government has become Aesop's "boy". When the wolf finally comes, no one will listen to the boy.

Institutional and government consensus sometimes is wrong and needs to be challenged. But taken too far can bring real negative consequences too.

The erosion of institutional trust hits us hard at a time when trust is exactly what we need. The collapse of institutional trust made COVID-19 worse.

People don't trust the government or the media to deliver the truth. People don't trust the schools to make the best decisions for kids. People don't even trust doctors, turning to politicians for medical advice. And unfortunately, people don't trust each other to do what's best for our collective interest, like wear freaking masks.

We need trusts & public buy-ins. And we need a more data centric / data driven approach. This is how other countries better managed COVID-19.

Data points from the 6th century, or the 14th century, or 1918 are bad data points.

This is why we should mimic/copy what other countries did to win against covid.
Why recreate the wheel when it is already built?
(No magic drug/vaccine required)

Until this day I hear from people that covid is fake.

 

[qwerty]

Another data point to the government losing its credibility, they have been talking about this on sports radio the last couple of days as well. But as soon as Florida and Arizona said they would welcome other sports teams NY and CA all of sudden said sports was doable, granted without fans. 

 

[eyephone]

Losing credibility about sports?
Some people can care less about sports.
Good luck justifying the high paying salaries without fans in the seats.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Aesop warned us in the 6th century BC (sorry Ken  ) about the boy who cried wolf. By deliberately spreading outlandishly false warnings hoping to scare people into changing their behavior, the government has become Aesop's "boy". When the wolf finally comes, no one will listen to the boy.

Institutional and government consensus sometimes is wrong and needs to be challenged. But taken too far can bring real negative consequences too.

The erosion of institutional trust hits us hard at a time when trust is exactly what we need. The collapse of institutional trust made COVID-19 worse.

People don't trust the government or the media to deliver the truth. People don't trust the schools to make the best decisions for kids. People don't even trust doctors, turning to politicians for medical advice. And unfortunately, people don't trust each other to do what's best for our collective interest, like wear freaking masks.

We need trusts & public buy-ins. And we need a more data centric / data driven approach. This is how other countries better managed COVID-19.

Data points from the 6th century, or the 14th century, or 1918 are bad data points.

This is why we should mimic/copy what other countries did to win against covid.
Why recreate the wheel when it is already built?
(No magic drug/vaccine required)

Until this day I hear from people that covid is fake.

The only problem is the US is much larger than all those other countries and the governmental/societal structure is different.

Freedom has its pros and cons.

In the US, people protest because they can?t go the beach, in those other countries, people can?t even leave their house at all.

 

[morekaos]

Wait till you see this weekend. The hot weather coupled with a tired and impatient public is about to explode onto the beach. I drove down pch to my office today at 7:00. All the parking lots were packed. When I drove back up at 2:00 there were hundreds of people in the streets and there were tents in the beach. I counted a total of 6 masks...and it?s Thursday before a three day weekend!! Tomorrow, it begins. This opening will happen, one way or another.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Tomorrow, it begins.

The 2nd wave of cases? I hope not.

 

[qwerty]

What does a second wave even mean? Is there a number associated with that?

Is a second wave possible when the first wave is still here?

 

[eyephone]

Aesop warned us in the 6th century BC (sorry Ken  ) about the boy who cried wolf. By deliberately spreading outlandishly false warnings hoping to scare people into changing their behavior, the government has become Aesop's "boy". When the wolf finally comes, no one will listen to the boy.

Institutional and government consensus sometimes is wrong and needs to be challenged. But taken too far can bring real negative consequences too.

The erosion of institutional trust hits us hard at a time when trust is exactly what we need. The collapse of institutional trust made COVID-19 worse.

People don't trust the government or the media to deliver the truth. People don't trust the schools to make the best decisions for kids. People don't even trust doctors, turning to politicians for medical advice. And unfortunately, people don't trust each other to do what's best for our collective interest, like wear freaking masks.

We need trusts & public buy-ins. And we need a more data centric / data driven approach. This is how other countries better managed COVID-19.

Data points from the 6th century, or the 14th century, or 1918 are bad data points.

This is why we should mimic/copy what other countries did to win against covid.
Why recreate the wheel when it is already built?
(No magic drug/vaccine required)

Until this day I hear from people that covid is fake.

The only problem is the US is much larger than all those other countries and the governmental/societal structure is different.

Freedom has its pros and cons.

In the US, people protest because they can%u2019t go the beach, in those other countries, people can%u2019t even leave their house at all.

I agree and not arguing with you IHO. But people thought taking temperature before they enter an establishment would never happen in America. But now there are some places that require a person to do so. 

The people who I talked are in shock and disbelief that other countries are able to beat covid. (The previous countries that I previously mentioned vote for their leadership in government. One of the country does not that starts with a V. But who cares at this moment of time? The key is to find ways to beat covid.)

We will never get over this until people change. (I hope for the best)