coronavirus

[Kenkoko]

Devil's advocate:

You also need to take into account scale, geography and infrastructure.

Italy, for example, is roughly the same size as California... but they have over 60m population while we have less than 40m.

The Vox article credits China for being able to build temporary hospitals but we can use current infrastructure as hospitals... stadiums, gyms, etc (all of which are not being used due to sports being cancelled).

But this is also why social distancing and flattening the curve is important... even if you are not worried about yourself (ahem morekaos), everything helps to prevent overloading our healthcare system.

This "simulator" helps illustrate the theory:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

We have neither the capacity like China to build temp hospitals nor the surplus of healthcare workers to handle the increase. China can force all their health workers to work around the clock, use interns and trainee to staff up, and even summon retired healthcare workers to fill in.

We live in a free country so this will not happen on a massive scale. Our healthcare system is already running close to full capacity prior to Covid-19. People often don?t think about the downside of a capitalistic healthcare system.

I don?t even think US as a country is capable of a true lockdown, enforcing marshal law. The only realistic thing Americans can achieve is social distancing. But look around your local places or just on TI. There are plenty of people complaining or even fighting it.

People who think they?re invincible to the coronavirus should know that even if they don?t care about the sick or the elderly or their own grandparents, if they get into an accident and the hospital is full, which is more likely in a mass panic, they?ll die on the streets like everyone else.

 

[Mety]

Are you guys saying the recession is coming (or has come) not because of financial crisis nor because of bad mortgage payments but because of the flu-like (or something more severe) virus? Man, it's always something no one has predicted. NO, YOU ARE NOT GOD.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

@Mety: Weren't you just asking me a few weeks ago how would the coronavirus affect our economy?

 

[Mety]

@Mety: Weren't you just asking me a few weeks ago how would the coronavirus affect our economy?

Not sure. I think we were talking about TP being in stock or not couple weeks or days ago.

 

[PSForever]

Not too far fetched the way things are proceeding. Looking at the rate of spread in Europe/Italy, the US will be in for a world if pain. I can see Trump declaring national mandatory 14 day quarantine and keeping only essential businesses open (food, gas, healthcare). Then set price controls for short term. It would be painful for everyone and stock market would take nose dive but this may save lives. Hopefully he does this sooner than later. Many public health experts recommend drastic measures early rather than waiting till it spreads beyond control.

This is from an "alternative" site so take it for what it is, however, I thought their scenario was interesting and somewhat plausible based on the panic buying happening now and the already increasing tension among shoppers. 

BREAKING: Federal government to control and oversee grocery distribution with govt / private sector partnerships: Wal-Mart, Costco, Target, Kroger, top grocery chains to be deemed ?critical infrastructure? ? Discussion in progress to secure food supply chain, using the national guard to do so.  Possibility of having drive through grocery whereby each family can purchase fixed priced food kits with basics such as milk, eggs, meat, bread, etc.
https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-03...trol-grocery-distribution-national-guard.html

Totally agree.

 

[Kenkoko]

Are you guys saying the recession is coming (or has come) not because of financial crisis nor because of bad mortgage payments but because of the flu-like (or something more severe) virus? Man, it's always something no one has predicted. NO, YOU ARE NOT GOD.

I am definitely not god, but I did come close  >

I think we will only see a 5% price drop by 2020. But I would not use this dip to buy because I see a potential doomsday scenario beyond 2020 with a US economy slowdown compounded by a China meltdown. If that happens, we could see a 15-20% drop and that will be the buying opportunity.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Are you guys saying the recession is coming (or has come) not because of financial crisis nor because of bad mortgage payments but because of the flu-like (or something more severe) virus? Man, it's always something no one has predicted. NO, YOU ARE NOT GOD.

I am definitely not god, but I did come close  >

I think we will only see a 5% price drop by 2020. But I would not use this dip to buy because I see a potential doomsday scenario beyond 2020 with a US economy slowdown compounded by a China meltdown. If that happens, we could see a 15-20% drop and that will be the buying opportunity.

Wait a minute. You were saying a Chinese meltdown would cause a US slowdown that would cause a doomsday scenario.

This is the other way around. This is a doomsday scenario that is causing an economic meltdown.

There is no AI causality here.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

@Mety: Weren't you just asking me a few weeks ago how would the coronavirus affect our economy?

Not sure. I think we were talking about TP being in stock or not couple weeks or days ago.

Fear.

 

[Mety]

Scenario 1 - Things get better and Trump becomes a hero.

Scenario 2 - Things get worse and Trump gives the Presidency to Biden.

Both cases, Trump don't have much to loose. ;D What a genius.

 

[Mety]

Are you guys saying the recession is coming (or has come) not because of financial crisis nor because of bad mortgage payments but because of the flu-like (or something more severe) virus? Man, it's always something no one has predicted. NO, YOU ARE NOT GOD.

I am definitely not god, but I did come close  >

I think we will only see a 5% price drop by 2020. But I would not use this dip to buy because I see a potential doomsday scenario beyond 2020 with a US economy slowdown compounded by a China meltdown. If that happens, we could see a 15-20% drop and that will be the buying opportunity.

Not trying to get too religious, but Satan always tries to mimic God if you read the Bible. He always comes pretty close, but never is God thus many get deceived. Anyways, I'm not saying you're like Satan. I believe you give good and valuable opinions here.

 

[Kenkoko]

Not trying to get too religious, but Satan always tries to mimic God if you read the Bible. He always comes pretty close, but never is God thus many get deceived. Anyways, I'm not saying you're like Satan. I believe you give good and valuable opinions here.

No offense taken. I am also not religious so don't worry.

Thanks for valuing my opinion. My contrarian view here isn't always well received.  :'(

 

[Kenkoko]

Wait a minute. You were saying a Chinese meltdown would cause a US slowdown that would cause a doomsday scenario.

This is the other way around. This is a doomsday scenario that is causing an economic meltdown.

There is no AI causality here.

Which is why I said I came close, not ? I was right?

If you remember another prediction on TI that was even closer than mine, feel free to share it.

On the AI front, did you see the most recent 60 minutes episode on autonomous trucking? Things are definitely trending the direction I predicted. On top of that Romney just came out supporting a Emergency UBI. Things I?ve been talking about in principle.

Today is a good day for members of the #YangGang (minus the coronavirus of course)

 

[morekaos]

I predict, in the very near future it will become quite fashionable to get the coronavirus. >

Tom Hanks Says He Has Coronavirus

The actor said he and his wife, Rita Wilson, had tested positive while in Australia, where he is set to begin production on a film.
[url]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/business/media/tom-hanks-coronavirus.html[/url]

Anyone who?s anyone has got Corona...embrace the rapture!!

Idris Elba urges fans not to 'freak out' as he confirms he has tested positive for coronavirus COVID-19... but is yet to discover if wife Sabrina has also contracted the virus

[url]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-8118243/Idris-Elba-confirmed-tested-positive-coronavirus-says-feels-ok.html[/url]

Game of Thrones star Kristofer Hivju reveals he has tested positive for the coronavirus

[url]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-8119105/Game-Thrones-star-Kristofer-Hivju-reveals-tested-positive-coronavirus.html[/url]

 

[daedalus]

Here's my time capsule of grading our efforts, to be opened 2 weeks from today:  If in 2 weeks we have as many cases of COV-19 as China, then our efforts to slow the spread by closing everything down was a dismal failure and had no effect.  If we have fewer than 20,000 cases then our efforts were an amazing success.  We can interpolate or extrapolate our success/failure by how close to, or beyond, either goalpost we end up at.

 

[eyephone]

NBC article: Beverly Hills Rodeo Drive closed to shoppers

Beverly Hill?s iconic Rodeo Drive and the rest of the city?s ?non-essential? retail stores are being ordered closed for most business to help prevent the spread of the coronavirus.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...gs-global-n1160106/ncrd1161286#liveBlogHeader

  ???

 

[iacrenter]

We need a mandatory national lockdown if we are serious about bending the curve. There is too much local variability in the public health response from state to state or county to county. If we have any chance of saving thousands of lives, Trump and CDC needs to lock the whole country down now. Ban travel, close non essential businesses, shutdown schools, enact price controls, and start building mobile hospitals. He could also force private manufacturers under emergency deceleration to stop making widgets and start making masks and other essential medical equipment for hospitals.

Here's my time capsule of grading our efforts, to be opened 2 weeks from today:  If in 2 weeks we have as many cases of COV-19 as China, then our efforts to slow the spread by closing everything down was a dismal failure and had no effect.  If we have fewer than 20,000 cases then our efforts were an amazing success.  We can interpolate or extrapolate our success/failure by how close to, or beyond, either goalpost we end up at.

 

[morekaos]

Forget the cases numbers they are too hard to pin down accurately even with testing. Some will have it and be asymptotic and never be tested, some will false positive, some will have it and not test, the inaccuracies are massive. Watch the death rates...those are definitive, if you die from it they will know, that stat is solid. So far 85, if you sub out the 22 in one convalescent home you have 63 deaths so far (a bad week in Chicago).  If they don?t skyrocket we win. I don?t think they will.

 

[lnc]

South Coast Plaza also closed for 2 weeks after store employee tests positive for Coronavirus.
https://www.latimes.com/story/2020-...er-store-employee-tests-positive-for-covid-19

Also all LA Fitness closed until April 1sr. 

 

[eyephone]

Get ready for the bailout times 10. Which airline company will receive the most money?

Trump aka the bailout man. He did it with the farms and now others.
But how about the average person that can not get tissue paper? Lol

 

[morekaos]

So, now we know who's who.  If the death rates exceed those of our last pandemic benchmark (Swine Flu) then we were unprepared (no panic in 2009 at that level)...if they fall below, then all this panic was for naught...That number is 17,000 American deaths according to the CDC.

Swine flu has killed up to 17,000 in U.S.: report

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - H1N1 swine flu has killed as many as 17,000 Americans, including 1,800 children, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Friday.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-flu-usa/swine-flu-has-killed-up-to-17000-in-u-s-report-idUSN1223579720100212