coronavirus

[Mety]

You start putting everything together and it does seem like the contagiousness of this thing was overblown.

I'm not sure about that. The fact that it's in every country and every state in the US (and most were under lockdown) makes me wonder how it traveled so quickly.

Again, maybe now with the warmer weather, it's less out there so things are "safer"... like Irvine home prices... it could be seasonal.

Seeing C-19 record on upcoming weeks especially on those heavily protested areas will prove if this whole C-19 was overblown or not. If it was overblown, that just shows how easily human beings can fall into something that's false. Take that as a warning, dear people.

(No, eyephone. No one ever said or is saying C-19 doesn't exist. It does exist, but we're just talking about the severity of it.)

(No, I don't watch Fox new, Kenkoko. In fact, I don't like to rely on any of those biased medias like CNN, CBS, NBC, FOX, LA/NY Time, on an on)

 

[qwerty]

Preemptive strikes. I like it!

 

[Kenkoko]

You start putting everything together and it does seem like the contagiousness of this thing was overblown.

I'm not sure about that. The fact that it's in every country and every state in the US (and most were under lockdown) makes me wonder how it traveled so quickly.

Again, maybe now with the warmer weather, it's less out there so things are "safer"... like Irvine home prices... it could be seasonal.

Seeing C-19 record on upcoming weeks especially on those heavily protested areas will prove if this whole C-19 was overblown or not. If it was overblown, that just shows how easily human beings can fall into something that's false. Take that as a warning, dear people.

(No, eyephone. No one ever said or is saying C-19 doesn't exist. It does exist, but we're just talking about the severity of it.)

(No, I don't watch Fox new, Kenkoko. In fact, I don't like to rely on any of those biased medias like CNN, CBS, NBC, FOX, LA/NY Time, on an on)

Two possible outcomes:

1) Covid cases & deaths spike, causing more lockdowns and destruction of the economy

2) No drastic spike so the public feels completely & justifiably gaslighted by leaders and media

Either one inches us closer to a revolution to tear down the status quo.

We're definitely on the same page when it comes to mainstream media.

But, I actually do watch Fox news sometimes, mostly Tucker Carlson segments. I disagree with him on a lot but I find him to be intellectually honest.

 

[Mety]

You start putting everything together and it does seem like the contagiousness of this thing was overblown.

I'm not sure about that. The fact that it's in every country and every state in the US (and most were under lockdown) makes me wonder how it traveled so quickly.

Again, maybe now with the warmer weather, it's less out there so things are "safer"... like Irvine home prices... it could be seasonal.

Seeing C-19 record on upcoming weeks especially on those heavily protested areas will prove if this whole C-19 was overblown or not. If it was overblown, that just shows how easily human beings can fall into something that's false. Take that as a warning, dear people.

(No, eyephone. No one ever said or is saying C-19 doesn't exist. It does exist, but we're just talking about the severity of it.)

(No, I don't watch Fox new, Kenkoko. In fact, I don't like to rely on any of those biased medias like CNN, CBS, NBC, FOX, LA/NY Time, on an on)

Two possible outcomes:

1) Covid cases & deaths spike, causing more lockdowns and destruction of the economy

2) No drastic spike so the public feels completely & justifiably gaslighted by leaders and media

Either one inches us closer to a revolution to tear down the status quo.

We're definitely on the same page when it comes to mainstream media.

But, I actually do watch Fox news sometimes, mostly Tucker Carlson segments. I disagree with him on a lot but I find him to be intellectually honest.

"2) No drastic spike so the public feels completely & justifiably gaslighted by leaders and media"

So on this, are you referring leaders as Trump administration? Or are you talking about the whole congress people including Democrats plus advisers and doctors like Dr. Fauci and so on? If that #2 turns out to be true, I think Trump will receive the biggest praise in his Presidency ever. He's going to blame all the fake media and tweet something like 'I told you so' comments.

BTW I'm not a Trump supporter or believe things he says so please don't eyephone on me. ;D (I'm not voting for Biden either)

 

[Maserson]

Can someone define spike so we don?t have to move the goal posts either direction, later?  Number of cases?  Deaths? Gimme a number!

 

[Kenkoko]

"2) No drastic spike so the public feels completely & justifiably gaslighted by leaders and media"

So on this, are you referring leaders as Trump administration? Or are you talking about the whole congress people including Democrats plus advisers and doctors like Dr. Fauci and so on? If that #2 turns out to be true, I think Trump will receive the biggest praise in his Presidency ever. He's going to blame all the fake media and tweet something like 'I told you so' comments.

BTW I'm not a Trump supporter or believe things he says so please don't eyephone on me. ;D (I'm not voting for Biden either)

What I meant by public feels completely & justifiably gaslighted by leaders and media is that many people reluctantly accepted the government?s injunctions for 3 months to drastically modify their behavior, often at great personal expenses. And then suddenly overnight, a favorable new political cause emerges, and these very same government officials are now encouraging mass gatherings. Many of which explicitly violate the emergency orders that are still currently in place.

On top of that, many of these people already bought into the false narrative that the economic hit is about the restrictions and not COVID itself.

Whether we end up with #1 or #2, there will be plenty of "I told you so" from either side, fake resistances, and no meaningful actions.

And that's really a shame.

If there ever was a time to get bi-partisan effort to get real police reform passed, it's now. Police reform is difficult during "normal times" because police departments are unable to police themselves. And local officials are loathe to antagonize law enforcement members that are often among their most powerful and unified constituents.

But reforms like training (officers are taught to shoot to kill within 3 seconds.), demilitarization, community-based policing, civilian input and oversight, body cams and transparency, local accountability and officer diversity are crucial. Otherwise, this will happen again and again in the future.

 

[Mety]

Political agendas and police reform are something I wasn't getting into since this is about whether C-19 is really what people think it is or not. I only went ahead and wrote about Trump administration because you said the public will be gaslighted by leaders and media. I think it would be pretty natural to be gaslighted by media more than any political figure IMHO. But people will blame whoever is in the office anyways and befriend with whatever media they choose to listen/watch anyways. So I guess I shouldn't have brought it up.

Anyways, back to your possible scenarios, I think it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Either way, media or political figures will get away with murders, but at least we'll know how C-19 has effected the whole world by either truth or false. 

 

[nosuchreality]

Whether you think Covid-19 is or is not what health officials were afraid of in March, April, May and even now, we will not have our answer until November.  We will not know if is or isn't really bad until we get through the winter.

Orange County is a good example.  Our cases per day average is steadily but slowly increasing, in spite of test per day peaking nearly two weeks ago. Is it bad? Hardly, but our number hospitalized is slowly increasing, our number in ICU is slowly increasing and the deaths just do a slow daily click increase.  All in the season when flu-like illness usually virtually disappear.

Rural? South Dakota isn't NYC, their numbers just keep the slow roll going too. The States reopening just keep seeing the roll up increase too.

We are in respiratory illness low season and it is solidifying its footing and gaining ground.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I don?t recall any flu putting people in the hospital until June.

Hopefully it?s less able to spread due to weather but it?s still causing serious harm to many.

 

[Mety]

I think everyone actually agrees on that somewhat since everyone agrees C-19 exists. We're all just having different opinions on the level of severity here.

The question is was this whole pause in our lives necessary? Did it really produce better results than if we were not locked-down? That's where we'll find out since the whole lockdown and social distancing rules were ignored in those protested areas for the last couple of days.

BTW I am personally benefiting more from this lockdown situation, but I don't think that's true for everyone. I'm just interested to know whether we were all fooled or not. Not bringing in any politics.

 

[eyephone]

I don?t recall any flu putting people in the hospital until June.

Hopefully it?s less able to spread due to weather but it?s still causing serious harm to many.

Yes, I agree. The new covid arguments: masks/social distance do not work, lockdown was not worth it

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Did it really produce better results than if we were not locked-down?

I find this question odd.

Italy and NYC proved that not being locked down would cause more spread.

Even with lockdown, still over 100k dead in the US.

China and India, with the largest populations in the world used very strict lockdown and have less than 5% number of deaths than the US who has less than 1/4 of their population.

You guys want to crunch the numbers on infection rate and death rate but what about the comparisons to other countries to see if lockdowns work.

You know who the next country is that is close to the US in population and deaths? Brazil. Their president didn't want to lockdown but now cities are doing it against his orders because their hospitals are overwhelmed:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/brazil-cities-lockdown-1.5567118(qwerty will not click this link)

Faced with overwhelmed hospitals and surging coronavirus deaths, Brazilian state and city governments are proceeding with mandatory lockdowns against the will of President Jair Bolsonaro, who says job losses are more damaging than COVID-19.

The movements of Brazilians have been completely restricted in fewer than two dozen cities scattered across this nation of 211 million people, even though Brazil's death toll stands at more than 12,000, Latin America's highest.

While public health experts are demanding bolder action, most governors and mayors have not imposed mandatory stay-at-home orders. Their apparent reluctance comes amid Bolsonaro's relentless message for Brazilians to defy regional and local public health efforts to stop the virus's spread.

Stricter lockdowns are needed because Brazilian doctors are being forced to choose who lives and dies and triage situations could generate social unrest if they increase, said Miguel Lago, executive director of Brazil's non-profit Institute for Health Policy Studies, which advises public health officials.

"We need to avoid a total disaster," he said.

Lago said mandatory lockdowns across much of the country would help: "It is late in terms of avoiding hospital collapse, but certainly it isn't too late to avoid a bigger catastrophe."

That was 2 weeks ago... their president Bolsonaro is now in trouble:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/27/cor...onaro-could-soon-be-toppled-analysts-say.html

Brazil?s right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro, who has dismissed the coronavirus as a ?little flu,? could be the first world leader to be toppled by the pandemic, analysts said.

South America?s largest country has emerged as the world?s number two global hotspot for Covid-19, with more cases reported nationwide over the last week than any other seven-day period since the outbreak began.

[...]

Health experts have suggested the lack of testing in Brazil could be masking the true extent of the coronavirus epidemic.

A study by the University of Sao Paolo Medical School estimates that the number of Covid-19 infections could be around 15 times higher than the official figure.

If those predictions are accurate, it would mean that as of May 26, the actual total of coronavirus cases in Brazil stood at over 5 million.

That?s more than three times higher than the U.S., the country with the highest number of confirmed cases worldwide.

I notice the anti-lockdown "cheerleaders" never bring up Brazil in large purple font.

 

[Mety]

So you firmly believe our lockdown helped us to have less fatal rates.

I'm still in question.

Let's see how it turns out from those protested areas.

 

[nosuchreality]

So you firmly believe our lockdown helped us to have less fatal rates.

I'm still in question.

Let's see how it turns out from those protested areas.

Less fatal rates?  Less fatalities is a no brainer yes.  Less fatal rates, is a likely. 

NYC would likely be somewhat worse, possibly complete breakdown.  Economically they?d be worse.  Yes worse, the people would have shut themselves down quite quickly after the time NYC did impose rules.

Once that uncontrolled shit show started in NYC it economically would have made what they have now look like creme puffs and mimosas.  And no one would be talking about reopening, they?d all be screaming bailouts.  And out state would have been a cluster job too as anybody with any means would have fled the city.

Maybe the cure is worse than the disease need to figure out how NYC would have played out and what that would have meant to all those big companies with heavy presence in that region. Hint, think like an airline.

 

[Mety]

So you firmly believe our lockdown helped us to have less fatal rates.

I'm still in question.

Let's see how it turns out from those protested areas.

Less fatal rates?  Less fatalities is a no brainer yes.  Less fatal rates, is a likely. 

NYC would likely be somewhat worse, possibly complete breakdown.  Economically they?d be worse.  Yes worse, the people would have shut themselves down quite quickly after the time NYC did impose rules.

Once that uncontrolled shit show started in NYC it economically would have made what they have now look like creme puffs and mimosas.  And no one would be talking about reopening, they?d all be screaming bailouts.  And out state would have been a cluster job too as anybody with any means would have fled the city.

Maybe the cure is worse than the disease need to figure out how NYC would have played out and what that would have meant to all those big companies with heavy presence in that region. Hint, think like an airline.

So now NYC had protests, will their fatalities go up again?

 

[qwerty]

So you firmly believe our lockdown helped us to have less fatal rates.

I'm still in question.

Let's see how it turns out from those protested areas.

Less fatal rates?  Less fatalities is a no brainer yes.  Less fatal rates, is a likely. 

NYC would likely be somewhat worse, possibly complete breakdown.  Economically they?d be worse.  Yes worse, the people would have shut themselves down quite quickly after the time NYC did impose rules.

Once that uncontrolled shit show started in NYC it economically would have made what they have now look like creme puffs and mimosas.  And no one would be talking about reopening, they?d all be screaming bailouts.  And out state would have been a cluster job too as anybody with any means would have fled the city.

Maybe the cure is worse than the disease need to figure out how NYC would have played out and what that would have meant to all those big companies with heavy presence in that region. Hint, think like an airline.

Well the virus is still here. If what you are saying is accurate people should still be afraid to go out knowing they can die.

So reopening should not do any good?

 

[nosuchreality]

NYC? new daily counts are lower than OC?s which for being more than twice our size is great. 

Yesterday?s new case count was 65 in NYC.  April peak was 100x that. 


And frankly, 65 new cases today implies an very different undiagnosed new cases in NYC than the last time at 65 cases in early March.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Cases may be rising:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/01/health/protests-coronavirus-spread-concerns/index.html

?Sunday alone saw an increase of almost 20,000 cases nationwide, according to the CNN count compiled with data from John's Hopkins.

In Washington DC, the health department on Monday reported a new peak in cases meaning a delay to moving from phase one of the District's reopening program to a less restrictive phase.

In California, cases jumped 11% in days, from 98,980 reported Wednesday to 110,583 cases Sunday, according to the health department's data.?

Let?s hope for the best.

 

[freedomcm]

Well the CDC said transmission by surface is low risk. The WHO says if you are not sick then you should only wear a mask if you are taking care of someone who is sick (contradicts the CDC).

As I read the guidelines, WHO was saying that N95 respirators were only needed to prevent self-infection when caring for suspected COVID patients, but that 'face masks' were a useful precaution to prevent spread to others.

Did I read that incorrectly?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Since morekaos likes to point to Sweden on how their no-lockdown was right:

Man Behind Sweden?s Controversial Virus Strategy Admits Mistakes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-virus-strategy-says-he-got-some-things-wrong

Sweden?s top epidemiologist has admitted his strategy to fight Covid-19 resulted in too many deaths, after persuading his country to avoid a strict lockdown.

?If we were to encounter the same illness with the same knowledge that we have today, I think our response would land somewhere in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done,? Anders Tegnell said in an interview with Swedish Radio.

Tegnell is the brains behind Sweden?s controversial approach to fighting the virus, and the government of Stefan Lofven has deferred to the epidemiologist in its official response to the pandemic. Gatherings of more than 50 people continue to be banned, but throughout the crisis Swedes have been able to visit restaurants, go shopping, attend gyms and send children under 16 to school.

The laxer approach to containing the virus has drawn both praise and condemnation from across the globe. What is beyond debate, however, is the effect the strategy has had on the country?s death toll.

At 43 deaths per 100,000, Sweden?s mortality rate is among the highest globally and far exceeds that of neighboring Denmark and Norway, which imposed much tougher lockdowns at the onset of the pandemic.

But at least their economy is okay right qwerty?

What?s more, there?s so far limited evidence that Sweden?s decision to leave much of its society open will support the economy. Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson recently warned that Sweden is facing its worst economic crisis since World War II, with GDP set to slump 7% in 2020, roughly as much as the rest of the EU.

The government has started to grow concerned at the apparent missteps taken to fight the spread of the virus in Sweden. On Monday, Lofven promised there?d be an inquiry into the handling of the crisis before the summer.

Some lawmakers in Sweden?s parliament were quick to weigh in. Jimmie Akesson, the leader of the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats, tweeted that the comments by Tegnell are ?astonishing.?

?For months, critics have been consistently dismissed. Sweden has done everything right, the rest of the world has done it wrong. And now, suddenly, this,? Akesson said.

Like Ken and I have said, regardless of the lockdown, the economy will suffer... and if you don't lockdown, the people will suffer too.

If the US had a strict national lockdown, we probably would be less than 100k dead... but if we had no lockdown... that number would probably be over 200k if not higher... according to the qwermodels.