Coronavirus Math

[Liar Loan]

@Liar Loan,

If it's a randomized sub section / slice of a population, then yes, a 10% rate of infection would seem high currently.


But, you're not talking about randomized selection.

Would a 10% rate of infection seem high if we test the healthcare workers on the front lines? Not to me.

This is a specific company in a specific city with a owner funding a test because he just wants to know. Is it possible he already suspected he had infected employees? confirmation bias? the point is we don't know. This is also extremely small sample size given we have 3 million + in OC. Therefore this data isn't valuable.

You're right about false positive/negative being an ongoing issue. This is what happens when we allow the # of cases to go through the roof & not have the ability to test and re-test people who had exposure.

Bottom line:

There is some irrational exuberance on antibody tests. They are useful for tracking trends in the general population, but we are a long way from "herd immunity".  Most experts say we wouldn't hit that until approx 60% of the population has recovered from the virus. We likely won't be out of the woods until we have a vaccine.

Nobody has suggested that we have herd immunity at this time.  The point is that the fatality rate for COVID-19 determines the extent to which we can reopen society and get back to normal. 

The antibody tests have a false positive rate that can be measured and accounted for.  Let's stop wishing the past was different and focus on the tools we have at our disposal to gain better data.

415 actually is a valid sample size for a county of 3.2 million depending on the margin of error and confidence level you are going for.  Just think about the political polls of 1,000-2,000 people that are used to gauge the feelings of 360 million Americans on a routine basis.  Yes, this study is not a random sample, but it is a valid sample size.

This group of workers were not front line healthcare workers.  They were IT workers that started working from home a week prior to the shelter in place order.  You would expect a very low prevalance rate with this population, yet they tested at 10% positive.  You can choose to disregard the results, or you can say 'Hmm...This warrants further investigation.'

That would be the scientific thing to do, but I gather the .

For a non-randomized and non-weighted test to be valuable data, it needs to be much larger than 415. No ethical healthcare professional would put much weight behind this.

This isn't even close to political sampling. You underplay the importance of randomization and properly weighted analysis. Should we call phone numbers from the Democratic data base to poll Trump's approval rating ? and present that raw data as valuable analysis? Surely you see how skewed it can be.

The scientific thing to do would have been to publish what kind of antibody test was used in this case. Do we even know how specific the tests are?

You're the one who said to extrapolate this data to the entire OC. Seems to me that science isn't really your agenda here.

Again, nobody suggested that healthcare professionals should put their weight behind this, or that you were unethical for not doing so.

What a good medical professional should do is pay attention to the evidence.  That is why doctors have what is called a "practice".  There may not be enough scientifically validated data for medical professionals to make good decisions during a novel virus-induced pandemic.  They may be stuck relying on the best evidence available to them, which when you think it about it, is how we got 'shelter at home' in the first place.

So far, there have been 10 major antibody studies that I'm aware of, and all of them show higher infection rates than authorities originally believed, and if you extrapolate the results, none of them show a mortality rate above 0.60%, and most of them come in much lower than that.

 

[qwerty]

Yeah it doesn?t make sense to be dismissive of data because it?s 80% accurate.

As Liar said, how accurate was the data that led to the lockdown?

 

[eyephone]

Haven%u2019t we established that the published death rates are very inaccurate to the high side? A 9.2% death is not accurate at all.

I am going by Mexican News Daily. Do the math it is 9.2%. (reported cases 14,677 and 1,351 covid related deaths)

The numbers of covid cases may be under reported. But we are using the data that government provided.

Also, it can mean that the Mexican health care system is not prepared for covid. idk
Was the Mexican government to kick back in enforcing social distancing/masks/psa info about covid? Idk

 

[Kenkoko]

Again, nobody suggested that healthcare professionals should put their weight behind this, or that you were unethical for not doing so.

What a good medical professional should do is pay attention to the evidence.  That is why doctors have what is called a "practice".  There may not be enough scientifically validated data for medical professionals to make good decisions during a novel virus-induced pandemic.  They may be stuck relying on the best evidence available to them, which when you think it about it, is how we got 'shelter at home' in the first place.

So far, there have been 10 major antibody studies that I'm aware of, and all of them show higher infection rates than authorities originally believed, and if you extrapolate the results, none of them show a mortality rate above 0.60%, and most of them come in much lower than that.

I guess this is where we disagree.

This is very low level evidence, certainly not good enough for county wide extrapolation. We don't even know what test was conduced. FDA oversight of antibody tests is so lax that there are many on the market giving high rates of false positives.

More importantly, it?s yet unclear whether people who have recovered will be immune. Therefore, these antibody tests aren't useful outside of tracking trends in the general population. They help us establish rate of infection and more indirectly mortality rate (our tracking for death counts for COVID is very flawed)

Lower mortality rate or higher rate of infection aren't even among the top concerns / indicators to what public health officials look at for re-openings in May. 

Re-opening in May doesn't hinge on lower mortality rate or 10% or even 20% rate of infection because we are far from herd immunity.

Re-opening in May hinges on key measures like # of Hospitalizations, #s in ICU, % of positive test results. They need to trend down in consecutive days below benchmark.

 

[qwerty]

Do the key measures include how many people go broke or can?t pay their bills or buy food? Seems like those are some pretty key metrics. Or do we just care about hospital related metrics?

 

[eyephone]

Do the key measures include how many people go broke or can%u2019t pay their bills or buy food? Seems like those are some pretty key metrics. Or do we just care about hospital related metrics?

Go blame the president for his inaction at the beginning.
Like you previously said, play the hand your dealt with.
Do all business deserve the PPP loan? Do all business survive? Should we bailout a movie theater and department stores? (I think some were having trouble before covid, but with social distancing it creates another hurdle.)

Were you this animated after the financial crisis? (About the loss of jobs, people losing their house)

 

[Kenkoko]

Do the key measures include how many people go broke or can?t pay their bills or buy food? Seems like those are some pretty key metrics. Or do we just care about hospital related metrics?

You're barking up the wrong tree. I support UBI/ emergency UBI / recurrent bailout stimulus checks to every individuals.

This is on Trump & Congress. They need to keep people afloat.

 

[qwerty]

Do the key measures include how many people go broke or can%u2019t pay their bills or buy food? Seems like those are some pretty key metrics. Or do we just care about hospital related metrics?

Go blame the president for his inaction at the beginning.
Like you previously said, play the hand your dealt with.
Do all business deserve the PPP loan? Do all business survive? Should we bailout a movie theater and department stores? (I think some were having trouble before covid, but with social distancing it creates another hurdle.)

Were you this animated after the financial crisis? (About the loss of jobs, people losing their house)

Perhaps you should listen to your own advice and play the hand you were dealt. All you do is complain

Do the key measures include how many people go broke or can?t pay their bills or buy food? Seems like those are some pretty key metrics. Or do we just care about hospital related metrics?

You're barking up the wrong tree. I support UBI/ emergency UBI / recurrent bailout stimulus checks to every individuals.

This is on Trump & Congress. They need to keep people afloat.

Do the key measures include how many people go broke or can?t pay their bills or buy food? Seems like those are some pretty key metrics. Or do we just care about hospital related metrics?

You're barking up the wrong tree. I support UBI/ emergency UBI / recurrent bailout stimulus checks to every individuals.

This is on Trump & Congress. They need to keep people afloat.

Do the key measures include how many people go broke or can?t pay their bills or buy food? Seems like those are some pretty key metrics. Or do we just care about hospital related metrics?

You're barking up the wrong tree. I support UBI/ emergency UBI / recurrent bailout stimulus checks to every individuals.

This is on Trump & Congress. They need to keep people afloat.

That is the issue, someone needs to pay for all of this shit and and  all of these shutdowns and spending have consequences. Fauci and state/local health agency?s go nuclear and just shut everything down because their viewpoint is only about physical health and does not consider economic health. Both should be considered.

Left to their own devices the healthcare leaders would just shut it all down until the vaccine is here and expect the government to just pay for everything.

 

[aquabliss]

None of the people standing at the podium in front of the cameras have had their pay cut or their jobs taken away.  None of them are stressed about when their unemployment check will reach their mailbox or how they?re going to pay their May rent on Friday.

It?s so much easier to make decisions for other people that don?t have any negative impact on you or your family.  Tell Newsome and Garcetti we?re freezing their assets and cutting their benefits and pay until the restrictions are lifted.  Would they still take the same course of actions?  We?ll never know the answer unfortunately.

 

[Kenkoko]

That is the issue, someone needs to pay for all of this shit and and  all of these shutdowns and spending have consequences. Fauci and state/local health agency?s go nuclear and just shut everything down because their viewpoint is only about physical health and does not consider economic health. Both should be considered.

Left to their own devices the healthcare leaders would just shut it all down until the vaccine is here and expect the government to just pay for everything.

No, Fauci did not shut everything down. This decision has always been a political one whether at the federal level or at the state level.

Fauci is paid to give his professional advise. It's not his job nor in the public interest for Fauci to consider political influences. Stick to facts & science.

 

[eyephone]

I complain and you do not?
Double standard.

Do the key measures include how many people go broke or can%u2019t pay their bills or buy food? Seems like those are some pretty key metrics. Or do we just care about hospital related metrics?

Go blame the president for his inaction at the beginning.
Like you previously said, play the hand your dealt with.
Do all business deserve the PPP loan? Do all business survive? Should we bailout a movie theater and department stores? (I think some were having trouble before covid, but with social distancing it creates another hurdle.)

Were you this animated after the financial crisis? (About the loss of jobs, people losing their house)

Perhaps you should listen to your own advice and play the hand you were dealt. All you do is complain

Do the key measures include how many people go broke or can?t pay their bills or buy food? Seems like those are some pretty key metrics. Or do we just care about hospital related metrics?

You're barking up the wrong tree. I support UBI/ emergency UBI / recurrent bailout stimulus checks to every individuals.

This is on Trump & Congress. They need to keep people afloat.

Do the key measures include how many people go broke or can?t pay their bills or buy food? Seems like those are some pretty key metrics. Or do we just care about hospital related metrics?

You're barking up the wrong tree. I support UBI/ emergency UBI / recurrent bailout stimulus checks to every individuals.

This is on Trump & Congress. They need to keep people afloat.

Do the key measures include how many people go broke or can?t pay their bills or buy food? Seems like those are some pretty key metrics. Or do we just care about hospital related metrics?

You're barking up the wrong tree. I support UBI/ emergency UBI / recurrent bailout stimulus checks to every individuals.

This is on Trump & Congress. They need to keep people afloat.

That is the issue, someone needs to pay for all of this shit and and  all of these shutdowns and spending have consequences. Fauci and state/local health agency?s go nuclear and just shut everything down because their viewpoint is only about physical health and does not consider economic health. Both should be considered.

Left to their own devices the healthcare leaders would just shut it all down until the vaccine is here and expect the government to just pay for everything.

 

[eyephone]

None of the people standing at the podium in front of the cameras have had their pay cut or their jobs taken away.  None of them are stressed about when their unemployment check will reach their mailbox or how they?re going to pay their May rent on Friday.

It?s so much easier to make decisions for other people that don?t have any negative impact on you or your family.  Tell Newsome and Garcetti we?re freezing their assets and cutting their benefits and pay until the restrictions are lifted.  Would they still take the same course of actions?  We?ll never know the answer unfortunately.

I know what is better create chaos during a crisis and give bad advice to the American people like using Lysol to cure covid.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Just to provide another example of how math can be skewed, the Federal prison on Terminal Island has an infection rate of almost 50%, is that a good sample to extrapolate to all of Cali?

 

[aquabliss]

None of the people standing at the podium in front of the cameras have had their pay cut or their jobs taken away.  None of them are stressed about when their unemployment check will reach their mailbox or how they?re going to pay their May rent on Friday.

It?s so much easier to make decisions for other people that don?t have any negative impact on you or your family.  Tell Newsome and Garcetti we?re freezing their assets and cutting their benefits and pay until the restrictions are lifted.  Would they still take the same course of actions?  We?ll never know the answer unfortunately.

I know what is better create chaos during a crisis and give bad advice to the American people like using Lysol to cure covid.

I guess you're attempting to turn my statement political by slamming Trump?  I'm not an all-in Trump supporter, he does a lot of stupid things and makes a lot of embarrassing statements.  He also does some good things and helps out a lot of people.  Same can be said for most politicians. 

Forget politics, this is getting painful for most Americans and moreso than it needs to be.  Why can't we have the freedom to choose to work, choose to open our businesses, choose to take risks and go out?  Oh ya, because we might "unknowingly" make others sick right?  Well those who we make sick should not have chosen to leave the house if they don't want to get sick?  Oh ya, what if Jr. leaves the house and comes home and gets Grandma sick?  Well then put Grandma in her own bedroom and leave food by her door.  Oh ya, what if... the list goes on and on.

To those who insist on "curve bending", where is the goalpost?  0 new cases?  0 new deaths?  Not going to happen, even post vaccine.  How about the goalposts on the other side?  Most (if not all) of us are willing to give up some freedoms in exchange for an open economy.  We'll maintain social distancing, we'll wear facemasks, we won't congregate.  Heck I'll even go so far as reminding people to be mindful of this. 

So with this in mind, can I go back to church on Sunday or let my kids play with their friends at the park next week?  Oh wait, too soon.

 

[eyephone]

None of the people standing at the podium in front of the cameras have had their pay cut or their jobs taken away.  None of them are stressed about when their unemployment check will reach their mailbox or how they?re going to pay their May rent on Friday.

It?s so much easier to make decisions for other people that don?t have any negative impact on you or your family.  Tell Newsome and Garcetti we?re freezing their assets and cutting their benefits and pay until the restrictions are lifted.  Would they still take the same course of actions?  We?ll never know the answer unfortunately.

I know what is better create chaos during a crisis and give bad advice to the American people like using Lysol to cure covid.

I guess you're attempting to turn my statement political by slamming Trump?  I'm not an all-in Trump supporter, he does a lot of stupid things and makes a lot of embarrassing statements.  He also does some good things and helps out a lot of people.  Same can be said for most politicians. 

Forget politics, this is getting painful for most Americans and moreso than it needs to be.  Why can't we have the freedom to choose to work, choose to open our businesses, choose to take risks and go out?  Oh ya, because we might "unknowingly" make others sick right?  Well those who we make sick should not have chosen to leave the house if they don't want to get sick?  Oh ya, what if Jr. leaves the house and comes home and gets Grandma sick?  Well then put Grandma in her own bedroom and leave food by her door.  Oh ya, what if... the list goes on and on.

To those who insist on "curve bending", where is the goalpost?  0 new cases?  0 new deaths?  Not going to happen, even post vaccine.  How about the goalposts on the other side?  Most (if not all) of us are willing to give up some freedoms in exchange for an open economy.  We'll maintain social distancing, we'll wear facemasks, we won't congregate.  Heck I'll even go so far as reminding people to be mindful of this. 

So with this in mind, can I go back to church on Sunday or let my kids play with their friends at the park next week?  Oh wait, too soon.

Hey you bashed Newsom, but did not give him credit.
Maybe you should appreciate Newsom for acting early. The situation could of been like NY.

Are you pro life? Since you mentioned church. If your pro life it contradicts your statement above.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I agree with you aquabliss, but not because of the math... but because we have to get businesses back open, people back working, and the economy back running.

I think that's what all the cities/counties/states are trying to do... figure out the best/fastest way to do it without causing Italy like numbers.

One thing I would like to say is there should be some perspective here about freedom/rights/etc. In other countries, the lockdown was LOCKDOWN. You couldn't leave your house, you couldn't go out for a walk, or even go to the grocery store. I think we need to consider that next time we don't want to wear a mask when the police could be physically preventing you from even stepping outside or you are forced to be tracked by your phone.

We just need to continue figure out how to get back to some type of normal both medically and economically.

 

[eyephone]

It seems the GOP and some conservative analysts did a complete 360 on their pro life stance.

 

[eyephone]

As I stated before a President should not create additional chaos during a crisis.
This is why people are afraid and do not trust the government.

Google GOP senators memo regarding Trump. (Basically it says do not defend Trump) lol

 

[qwerty]

Cmon eyephone - don?t get upset. We are all friends here

 

[eyephone]

Cmon eyephone - don?t get upset. We are all friends here

I am not upset. But I am telling you what is the reason why we are where we are.