Coronavirus Math

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The math they are using is garbage in garbage out...

Reports suggest many have had coronavirus with no symptoms

A flood of new research suggests that far more people have had the coronavirus without any symptoms, fueling hope that it will turn out to be much less lethal than originally feared.

While that?s clearly good news, it also means it?s impossible to know who around you may be contagious. That complicates decisions about returning to work, school and normal life.

None of these numbers can be fully trusted because they?re based on flawed and inadequate testing, said Dr. Michael Mina of Harvard?s School of Public Health.

Collectively, though, they suggest ?we have just been off the mark by huge, huge numbers? for estimating total infections, he said.

None of these numbers can be fully trusted because they?re based on flawed and inadequate testing, said Dr. Michael Mina of Harvard?s School of Public Health.

Collectively, though, they suggest ?we have just been off the mark by huge, huge numbers? for estimating total infections, he said.

https://apnews.com/d20f283318c86bec3cc2d3d7936a9612
 
Irvine-based company among first to offer COVID-19 antibody testing to employees
During the drive-thru testing, 415 people were tested. 375 tested negative for antibodies, 40 tested positive for antibodies, 25 tested positive for antibodies with no active infection, and 15 tested positive for antibodies with a possible active infection. Of those who have a possible active infection, the majority did not have symptoms.
Click to expand...
https://www.ktvu.com/news/irvine-ba...-offer-covid-19-antibody-testing-to-employees

So 9.6% of their tested employees have the antibodies.

Extrapolate that to all of Orange County and that would be 300,000+ people that have antibodies, and based on the 39 deaths we've had in OC so far, an infection fatality rate (IFR) of just 0.01%, 1/10th the seasonal flu.
 
Here is some math that doesn?t seem to add up.. Mexico City, which has almost 22 million people. (Almost 2 1/2 times the size of New York). That city has not really done much yet only reports 328 dead. Granted Mexico?s corruption but go ahead and triple that number, it?s still maniscule. If they had NY style numbers that death rate wold be 50,000 easy. Even there you can?t cover that up. Socially, they live on top of each other, huge mass transit users, horrible air, they smoke, obesity...this thing should be tearing through that population...yet...
 
I have some business associates there and they say it?s still fairly open. Some distancing and some masks but not much else. Still, what could account for that number?
 
morekaos said:
I have some business associates there and they say it?s still fairly open. Some distancing and some masks but not much else. Still, what could account for that number?
Click to expand...

Mexicans don?t die from corona, they drink it :-)

It could be the worm in the tequila preventing deaths as well.
 
Liar Loan said:
Irvine-based company among first to offer COVID-19 antibody testing to employees
During the drive-thru testing, 415 people were tested. 375 tested negative for antibodies, 40 tested positive for antibodies, 25 tested positive for antibodies with no active infection, and 15 tested positive for antibodies with a possible active infection. Of those who have a possible active infection, the majority did not have symptoms.
Click to expand...
https://www.ktvu.com/news/irvine-ba...-offer-covid-19-antibody-testing-to-employees

So 9.6% of their tested employees have the antibodies.

Extrapolate that to all of Orange County and that would be 300,000+ people that have antibodies, and based on the 39 deaths we've had in OC so far, an infection fatality rate (IFR) of just 0.01%, 1/10th the seasonal flu.
Click to expand...

The problem is you can?t extrapolate one 400 person non-randomized non weighted (Age/sex/demos etc) study for a county with over 3 million people.

These antibodies tests have high false positive/negative rate too.

Our NY affiliate tested all of their 56 employees and had 0% positive. It's great to know but obviously can?t extrapolate that to NY.

We could be well over 9.6% or well under 9.6% here in OC. We need massive testing to know. These private results don?t really tell us anything.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
morekaos said:
That city has not really done much yet only reports 328 dead.
Click to expand...

I thought they locked down like everyone else?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...oves-to-stem-coronavirus-spread-idUSKBN219150
Click to expand...

Good point IHO.

Mexican News Daily: With 9.2 fatalities per 100 cases, coronavirus more lethal in MX than US and China

Official statistics show that Covid-19 is more lethal in Mexico than the United States, which has the world?s largest known outbreak, and China, where the coronavirus that causes the disease originated late last year.

The fatality rate is 9.2 per 100 cases in Mexico, which has recorded 1,351 coronavirus-related deaths from 14,677 confirmed cases. The rate dropped slightly on Sunday from 9.4 a day earlier.

Health authorities have explained on numerous occasions that the high prevalence of problems such as diabetes and obesity among the Mexican population contributes to the higher fatality rate here compared to many other countries.
https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-deaths-by-state-as-of-sunday/

 
Haven?t we established that the published death rates are very inaccurate to the high side? A 9.2% death is not accurate at all.
 
I got tested at the clinic for the antibody test that AquaBliss posted about in Mission Viejo and the results were....

NEGATIVE

So looks like I didn't have the virus so I'll continue staying safe for all my clients, my gf, and my parents.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
I got tested at the clinic for the antibody test that AquaBliss posted about in Mission Viejo and the results were....

NEGATIVE

So looks like I didn't have the virus so I'll continue staying safe for all my clients, my gf, and my parents.
Click to expand...

Any idea which test kit RJ used?  I went to Xpress Urgent Care for the Quest blood test.  Pretty bad experience.  Opened up my eyes to what bottom of the barrel health care looks like. 
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
I got tested at the clinic for the antibody test that AquaBliss posted about in Mission Viejo and the results were....

NEGATIVE
Click to expand...

33ax1lsjkan41.jpg


(kidding!)
 
Kenkoko said:
Liar Loan said:
Irvine-based company among first to offer COVID-19 antibody testing to employees
During the drive-thru testing, 415 people were tested. 375 tested negative for antibodies, 40 tested positive for antibodies, 25 tested positive for antibodies with no active infection, and 15 tested positive for antibodies with a possible active infection. Of those who have a possible active infection, the majority did not have symptoms.
Click to expand...
https://www.ktvu.com/news/irvine-ba...-offer-covid-19-antibody-testing-to-employees

So 9.6% of their tested employees have the antibodies.

Extrapolate that to all of Orange County and that would be 300,000+ people that have antibodies, and based on the 39 deaths we've had in OC so far, an infection fatality rate (IFR) of just 0.01%, 1/10th the seasonal flu.
Click to expand...

The problem is you can?t extrapolate one 400 person non-randomized non weighted (Age/sex/demos etc) study for a county with over 3 million people.

These antibodies tests have high false positive/negative rate too.

Our NY affiliate tested all of their 56 employees and had 0% positive. It's great to know but obviously can?t extrapolate that to NY.

We could be well over 9.6% or well under 9.6% here in OC. We need massive testing to know. These private results don?t really tell us anything.
Click to expand...

Yes, it's not randomized or weighted, but it is indicative of a certain cross section of OC residents.... and a 10% rate of infection seems high no matter what slice of the population you test.  Do you disagree?

I don't know what test they used, but the articles I've read about other antibody experiments don't indicate a false positive rate of 10%.  The ones I have read are around 1-2% or less.  This is why margin of error is used in the scientific studies, many of which also show a much higher prevalence of infection than what was previously believed.

False positives will still be an issue even if we do massive testing as you have proposed, so what would be your strategy for dealing with that problem?

qwerty said:
Haven?t we established that the published death rates are very inaccurate to the high side? A 9.2% death is not accurate at all.
Click to expand...

Not sure if you were responding to me, but I was referencing an infection rate of 9.6%.
 
@Liar Loan,

If it's a randomized sub section / slice of a population, then yes, a 10% rate of infection would seem high currently.


But, you're not talking about randomized selection.

Would a 10% rate of infection seem high if we test the healthcare workers on the front lines? Not to me.

This is a specific company in a specific city with a owner funding a test because he just wants to know. Is it possible he already suspected he had infected employees? confirmation bias? the point is we don't know. This is also extremely small sample size given we have 3 million + in OC. Therefore this data isn't valuable.

You're right about false positive/negative being an ongoing issue. This is what happens when we allow the # of cases to go through the roof & not have the ability to test and re-test people who had exposure.

Bottom line:

There is some irrational exuberance on antibody tests. They are useful for tracking trends in the general population, but we are a long way from "herd immunity".  Most experts say we wouldn't hit that until approx 60% of the population has recovered from the virus. We likely won't be out of the woods until we have a vaccine.


 
Kenkoko said:
@Liar Loan,

If it's a randomized sub section / slice of a population, then yes, a 10% rate of infection would seem high currently.


But, you're not talking about randomized selection.

Would a 10% rate of infection seem high if we test the healthcare workers on the front lines? Not to me.

This is a specific company in a specific city with a owner funding a test because he just wants to know. Is it possible he already suspected he had infected employees? confirmation bias? the point is we don't know. This is also extremely small sample size given we have 3 million + in OC. Therefore this data isn't valuable.

You're right about false positive/negative being an ongoing issue. This is what happens when we allow the # of cases to go through the roof & not have the ability to test and re-test people who had exposure.

Bottom line:

There is some irrational exuberance on antibody tests. They are useful for tracking trends in the general population, but we are a long way from "herd immunity".  Most experts say we wouldn't hit that until approx 60% of the population has recovered from the virus. We likely won't be out of the woods until we have a vaccine.
Click to expand...

Nobody has suggested that we have herd immunity at this time.  The point is that the fatality rate for COVID-19 determines the extent to which we can reopen society and get back to normal. 

The antibody tests have a false positive rate that can be measured and accounted for.  Let's stop wishing the past was different and focus on the tools we have at our disposal to gain better data.

415 actually is a valid sample size for a county of 3.2 million depending on the margin of error and confidence level you are going for.  Just think about the political polls of 1,000-2,000 people that are used to gauge the feelings of 360 million Americans on a routine basis.  Yes, this study is not a random sample, but it is a valid sample size.

This group of workers were not front line healthcare workers.  They were IT workers that started working from home a week prior to the shelter in place order.  You would expect a very low prevalance rate with this population, yet they tested at 10% positive.  You can choose to disregard the results, or you can say 'Hmm...This warrants further investigation.'

That would be the scientific thing to do, but I gather the science isn't really your agenda here.
 
Liar Loan said:
Kenkoko said:
@Liar Loan,

If it's a randomized sub section / slice of a population, then yes, a 10% rate of infection would seem high currently.


But, you're not talking about randomized selection.

Would a 10% rate of infection seem high if we test the healthcare workers on the front lines? Not to me.

This is a specific company in a specific city with a owner funding a test because he just wants to know. Is it possible he already suspected he had infected employees? confirmation bias? the point is we don't know. This is also extremely small sample size given we have 3 million + in OC. Therefore this data isn't valuable.

You're right about false positive/negative being an ongoing issue. This is what happens when we allow the # of cases to go through the roof & not have the ability to test and re-test people who had exposure.

Bottom line:

There is some irrational exuberance on antibody tests. They are useful for tracking trends in the general population, but we are a long way from "herd immunity".  Most experts say we wouldn't hit that until approx 60% of the population has recovered from the virus. We likely won't be out of the woods until we have a vaccine.
Click to expand...

Nobody has suggested that we have herd immunity at this time.  The point is that the fatality rate for COVID-19 determines the extent to which we can reopen society and get back to normal. 

The antibody tests have a false positive rate that can be measured and accounted for.  Let's stop wishing the past was different and focus on the tools we have at our disposal to gain better data.

415 actually is a valid sample size for a county of 3.2 million depending on the margin of error and confidence level you are going for.  Just think about the political polls of 1,000-2,000 people that are used to gauge the feelings of 360 million Americans on a routine basis.  Yes, this study is not a random sample, but it is a valid sample size.

This group of workers were not front line healthcare workers.  They were IT workers that started working from home a week prior to the shelter in place order.  You would expect a very low prevalance rate with this population, yet they tested at 10% positive.  You can choose to disregard the results, or you can say 'Hmm...This warrants further investigation.'

That would be the scientific thing to do, but I gather the .
Click to expand...

For a non-randomized and non-weighted test to be valuable data, it needs to be much larger than 415. No ethical healthcare professional would put much weight behind this.

This isn't even close to political sampling. You underplay the importance of randomization and properly weighted analysis. Should we call phone numbers from the Democratic data base to poll Trump's approval rating ? and present that raw data as valuable analysis? Surely you see how skewed it can be.

The scientific thing to do would have been to publish what kind of antibody test was used in this case. Do we even know how specific the tests are?

You're the one who said to extrapolate this data to the entire OC. Seems to me that science isn't really your agenda here.
 
woodburyowner said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
I got tested at the clinic for the antibody test that AquaBliss posted about in Mission Viejo and the results were....

NEGATIVE

So looks like I didn't have the virus so I'll continue staying safe for all my clients, my gf, and my parents.
Click to expand...

Any idea which test kit RJ used?  I went to Xpress Urgent Care for the Quest blood test.  Pretty bad experience.  Opened up my eyes to what bottom of the barrel health care looks like. 
Click to expand...

Not sure, it was a blood test that took less than 10 minutes.  It tested for both the IgM and IgG antibodies and I didn't have either.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
So what are the other sides of the death math?

- Car accident deaths down because no one is driving.
- Violent crime deaths down because criminals are not out and about, stores are closed, and everybody is home.
+ Other ailments deaths are up because no one wants to go to the hospital because they are afraid of covid?
+ Suicide deaths up because of depression over unemployment or not being able to leave the house?
Click to expand...

Stress deaths way up?  WAPO article, while it has some data presentation issues, IMHO, hard to not notice NJ/NY deviation from norm in expected deaths as virus took off. 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/inve...covid-19-death-toll-undercounted/?arc404=true

Side note: interesting anecdotal on the clotting issues with Covid.  How do you tell a stroke as a stroke versus a stroke from a covid induced clot?
 
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