Bloodbath in Coto de Caza

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[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1236128803][quote author="awgee" date=1236117639][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1236090626][quote author="awgee" date=1236086078]And you thought flipping was DOA. Nope, just gone for amateurs. The pros are having a field day.



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/31991-Via-Gallo-92679/home/5055534">31991 Via Gallo</a> sold on 1/05/09 for $380,000, probably at auction or at the least a short sale. It sure looks a lot different, (better), than it did a couple of months ago. Is this a great country or what?



I have said it before and will say it again. The quickest way for home prices to stabilize is to expedite foreclosures quickly and in volume. Trying to slow down or avoid foreclosures will extend current problems and make them worse. Thank goodness for distressed asset buyers and professional flippers.





Any guesses on how much it goes for, and when?

My guess is two months and $572,000.</blockquote>
Looks like they got in and out fast and did a great job. However, they do have one further lesson to learn....price it low enough that you'll created a bidding war. I don't understand why they are being greedy because it'll just result in the property sitting around and collecting dust. They also should have send a few bucks and staged the place too.</blockquote>


Agree and agree</blockquote>
As my grandfather used to say..."the greedy always lose twice" (rough Polish translation)</blockquote>




By agree, I mean that I think they should price it lower also, and it may sit for a couple of months. I would sell as quick as possible to free my capital, but I doubt this flipper will actually lose any money. They bought well and fixed it up in record time. IMO, they are pros and they know what they are doing. Their pricing lends me to think they are willing to sit on it for a couple of months in order to maximize their profit instead of getting out as fast as they can like I would. But, I guess maybe that is why they are sucessful flippers and I am not.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1236129223][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1236128803][quote author="awgee" date=1236117639][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1236090626][quote author="awgee" date=1236086078]And you thought flipping was DOA. Nope, just gone for amateurs. The pros are having a field day.



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/31991-Via-Gallo-92679/home/5055534">31991 Via Gallo</a> sold on 1/05/09 for $380,000, probably at auction or at the least a short sale. It sure looks a lot different, (better), than it did a couple of months ago. Is this a great country or what?



I have said it before and will say it again. The quickest way for home prices to stabilize is to expedite foreclosures quickly and in volume. Trying to slow down or avoid foreclosures will extend current problems and make them worse. Thank goodness for distressed asset buyers and professional flippers.





Any guesses on how much it goes for, and when?

My guess is two months and $572,000.</blockquote>
Looks like they got in and out fast and did a great job. However, they do have one further lesson to learn....price it low enough that you'll created a bidding war. I don't understand why they are being greedy because it'll just result in the property sitting around and collecting dust. They also should have send a few bucks and staged the place too.</blockquote>


Agree and agree</blockquote>
As my grandfather used to say..."the greedy always lose twice" (rough Polish translation)</blockquote>




By agree, I mean that I think they should price it lower also, and it may sit for a couple of months. I would sell as quick as possible to free my capital, but I doubt this flipper will actually lose any money. They bought well and fixed it up in record time. IMO, they are pros and they know what they are doing. Their pricing lends me to think they are willing to sit on it for a couple of months in order to maximize their profit instead of getting out as fast as they can like I would. But, I guess maybe that is why they are sucessful flippers and I am not.</blockquote>
I wonder how much they spent on improving the property (I never saw the BEFORE pictures), but they did pick it up on the cheap at the auction. I think a list price of around $225/sf gets this thing sold quickly.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1236132654]

I wonder how much they spent on improving the property (I never saw the BEFORE pictures), but they did pick it up on the cheap at the auction. I think a list price of around $225/sf gets this thing sold quickly.</blockquote>


I wonder the same thing. I saw the pictures. I would not have described it as a total mess, but it was a deifite fixer, DATED, and really ugly. It still is not too good looking, but it seems they did the best they could with what they had to work with. I would guess they put $75,000 to $100,000 into it, but that is a wild, fairly ignorant guess. The kitchen has been completly remodeled. Everything has been painted inside and out. New landscaping, (grass), in the back. New carpet and flooring, fixtures, yada, yada. I bet the neighbors are stoked.
 
As noted is some of the above posts, some properties for sale in Coto are listed at 2003 prices. It would logically follow that properties that are actually selling, are selling at 2004, 2003, or maybe 2002 or 2005 prices. So, when I run accross a new listing in which the listed price is 48% above it's 2004 previously sold price, I am a bit confused.



In my mind, some homes really are special. And in my mind, many, many homes can be fixed up to be special. The newly listed home at <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/5-Via-Presea-92679/home/5088870">5 Via Presea</a> is gorgeous, at least on the outside. I have not seen the inside, and after a quick perusal of the listing photos, I find the inside does not impress the same.



Here are my questions;

Will this property really sell for anywhere close to $2,950,000?

Do the owners think this property will actually sell for close to $2,950,000?

Does the listing agent think this property will actually sell for close to $2,950,000?

Ms. Spadafore, the listing agent advertises on her website, "<em><strong>She knows Orange County values.</strong></em>"



Are the owners and the listing agent aware of the inventory of $3,000,000 properties and how many $3,000,000 sales there have been in the last few months?

Or even $2,000,000 properties?

Maybe they figure someone with $3,000,000 is going to come along and fall in love with their home and just have to have it?

Is there some sort of marketing strategy involved with listing at a WITW, (what in the world), price?

Do sellers decide on a listing agent based on which agent is too afraid to tell them the real worth of their special home?

How much does it cost an agent to list and market a $2,950,000 home?

If the present owners bought in November of 2004, how much do they owe on the property?

Did they refinance? Did they use their property as an ATM?

Why are they selling? After all, they have only lived there for four and one half years.



If anyone has any answers to the above questions, or even speculations, I would be most interested.
 
According to Redfin, there are 42 properties for sale in Coto that are listed at $1,975,000 and above. Does anybody know how many sales of $1,975,000 and above properties there were in Coto in the last year? I do not know, but I am guessing that 42 is a few years worth of inventory. How many owners of those $1,975,000 and above properties <strong>NEED</strong> to sell their homes? Because they will setting the prices.









There are 24 properties for sale that are listed at $2,950,000 and above.







There are 14 properties for sale that are listed at $4,000,000 and above. The listing agents for these properties may care to check and see how many properties have sold at this price in Coto since it's inception. They may be very surprised to find just how few have actually sold.







One property that may have sold for $4,000,000 or more recently is <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Trabuco-Canyon/7-Sawgrass-92679/home/5054712">7 Sawgrass</a>. The original listing price, according to Redfin, was $5,895,000 on May 6, 2008. The most recent offered price was $4,300,000. From the original listing price to the last offered price is a difference of $1,595,000 or -27%. Did it sell? And at what price?
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1236470461]According to Redfin, there are<strong> 42 </strong>properties for sale in Coto that are listed at <strong>$1,975,000</strong> and above. Does anybody know how many sales of $1,975,000 and above properties there were in Coto in the last year? I do not know, but I am guessing that 42 is a few years worth of inventory. How many owners of those $1,975,000 and above properties NEED to sell their homes? Because they will setting the prices.</blockquote>


Can I play? I've had one too many bourbons tonight, can't vouch for the accuracy, only the vitriol.



2006 = 29

2007 = 27

2008 = 13

2009 = 0



That's good, right?





<blockquote>There are <strong>24</strong> properties for sale that are listed at <strong>$2,950,000</strong> and above.</blockquote>


1992 = 2

1993 - 1997 = 0

1998 = 1

1999 = 0

2000 = 1

2001 = 0

2002 = 1

2003 = 1

2004 = 4

2005 = 5

2006 = 6

2007 = 9

2008 = 1

2009 = 0



Which one is Slade's?



<blockquote>There are <strong>14</strong> properties for sale that are listed at <strong>$4,000,000</strong> and above. The listing agents for these properties may care to check and see how many properties have sold at this price in Coto since it's inception. They may be very surprised to find just how few have actually sold.</blockquote>


1998 = 1

1999 = 0

2000 = 1

2001 = 0

2002 = 0

2003 = 1

2004 = 1

2005 = 2

2006 = 2

2007 = 6

2008 = 1

2009 = 0



Go back to 2000 to total 14 sales. Send this to MIT; we need to find a pattern. Barkeep, a round on the house!
 
[quote author="AVRenter" date=1236518976]

2009 = 0



That's good, right?

</blockquote>
Well, it is good for me and my family.





[quote author="AVRenter" date=1236518976]

<blockquote>There are <strong>24</strong> properties for sale that are listed at <strong>$2,950,000</strong> and above.</blockquote>


Which one is Slade's?

</blockquote>


None. Slade's home sole for $1,250,000 in March of 2008 according to zillow.



[quote author="AVRenter" date=1236518976]

<blockquote>There are <strong>14</strong> properties for sale that are listed at <strong>$4,000,000</strong> and above. The listing agents for these properties may care to check and see how many properties have sold at this price in Coto since it's inception. They may be very surprised to find just how few have actually sold.</blockquote>


2008 = 1

2009 = 0



Go back to 2000 to total 14 sales. Send this to MIT; we need to find a pattern. Barkeep, a round on the house!</blockquote>


So, going back to year 2000 would indicate a nine year inventory.

If we include 7 Sawgrass as a possible sale in 2009, the sales in 2009 would indicate a 14 year inventory. I do not know about the house, but the sellers definitely need a drink.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1236557202]

Slade's home sole for $1,250,000 in March of 2008 according to zillow.

</blockquote>
More accurately, that's the one Slayed lost. :-)



[quote author="awgee" date=1236557202]I do not know about the house, but the sellers definitely need a drink.</blockquote>
I can help them with that.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1236039194]I am not fond of this tract and have not seen the inside of this property, but my guess is that this could be flipped at more than $175 per sq ft quickly, or $700,000.





Friday

3/6/2009 12:00:00 PM Address: 33 CRK VIEW RD



City: COTO DE CAZA

State: CA

Zip: 92679

County: Orange

APN: 778-171-04

Sale Status: Postponed to 03/06/2009 12:00 pm

(Bankruptcy)

TS Number: CA07112456NF

ASAP Number: 980485

Notice of Sale Amt: $390,201.08

Opening Bid Amt: 0

Sold Amt: 0

Sale Location: At the North front entrance to the County Courthouse, 700 Civic Center Drive West, Santa Ana, CA.



Trustee: Quality Loan Service Corporation

Trustee Phone#: (619)685-4800</blockquote>




Sale Status: Cancelled on 03/06/2009





Phew! That was close. Cancelled at the last minute.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1236630320][quote author="awgee" date=1236039194]I am not fond of this tract and have not seen the inside of this property, but my guess is that this could be flipped at more than $175 per sq ft quickly, or $700,000.





Friday

3/6/2009 12:00:00 PM Address: 33 CRK VIEW RD



City: COTO DE CAZA

State: CA

Zip: 92679

County: Orange

APN: 778-171-04

Sale Status: Postponed to 03/06/2009 12:00 pm

(Bankruptcy)

TS Number: CA07112456NF

ASAP Number: 980485

Notice of Sale Amt: $390,201.08

Opening Bid Amt: 0

Sold Amt: 0

Sale Location: At the North front entrance to the County Courthouse, 700 Civic Center Drive West, Santa Ana, CA.



Trustee: Quality Loan Service Corporation

Trustee Phone#: (619)685-4800</blockquote>




Sale Status: Cancelled on 03/06/2009





Phew! That was close. Cancelled at the last minute.</blockquote>


Declared BK the day before the sale was to go through. Smart move. Owner appears to be a lawyer, so may be able to game the system better than most.





FILING INFORMATION



Filing Office: U.S. BANKRUPTCY COURT CENTRAL DISTRICT OF CALIFORNIA (SANTA ANA)

Judge: THEODOR ALBERT

Filing Number: 8:08-BK-11061

Filing Chapter: CHAPTER 7

Filing Date: 03/05/2008

Filing Type: BANKRUPTCY
 
[quote author="NoThereThere" date=1236647618][quote author="awgee" date=1236630320][quote author="awgee" date=1236039194]I am not fond of this tract and have not seen the inside of this property, but my guess is that this could be flipped at more than $175 per sq ft quickly, or $700,000.





Friday

3/6/2009 12:00:00 PM Address: 33 CRK VIEW RD



City: COTO DE CAZA

State: CA

Zip: 92679

County: Orange

APN: 778-171-04

Sale Status: Postponed to 03/06/2009 12:00 pm

(Bankruptcy)

TS Number: CA07112456NF

ASAP Number: 980485

Notice of Sale Amt: $390,201.08

Opening Bid Amt: 0

Sold Amt: 0

Sale Location: At the North front entrance to the County Courthouse, 700 Civic Center Drive West, Santa Ana, CA.



Trustee: Quality Loan Service Corporation

Trustee Phone#: (619)685-4800</blockquote>




Sale Status: Cancelled on 03/06/2009





Phew! That was close. Cancelled at the last minute.</blockquote>


Declared BK the day before the sale was to go through. Smart move. Owner appears to be a lawyer, so may be able to game the system better than most.





FILING INFORMATION



Filing Office: U.S. BANKRUPTCY COURT CENTRAL DISTRICT OF CALIFORNIA (SANTA ANA)

Judge: THEODOR ALBERT

Filing Number: 8:08-BK-11061

Filing Chapter: CHAPTER 7

Filing Date: 03/05/2008

Filing Type: BANKRUPTCY</blockquote>




For those us unfamiliar with bankruptcy laws and what effect bk has on foreclosure, can anyone tell us what this means?



Is the foreclosure postponed? Stopped? Negated? How does the lender get theirs?

Or might there be a cramdown?
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1236651148][quote author="NoThereThere" date=1236647618][quote author="awgee" date=1236630320][quote author="awgee" date=1236039194]I am not fond of this tract and have not seen the inside of this property, but my guess is that this could be flipped at more than $175 per sq ft quickly, or $700,000.





Friday

3/6/2009 12:00:00 PM Address: 33 CRK VIEW RD



City: COTO DE CAZA

State: CA

Zip: 92679

County: Orange

APN: 778-171-04

Sale Status: Postponed to 03/06/2009 12:00 pm

(Bankruptcy)

TS Number: CA07112456NF

ASAP Number: 980485

Notice of Sale Amt: $390,201.08

Opening Bid Amt: 0

Sold Amt: 0

Sale Location: At the North front entrance to the County Courthouse, 700 Civic Center Drive West, Santa Ana, CA.



Trustee: Quality Loan Service Corporation

Trustee Phone#: (619)685-4800</blockquote>




Sale Status: Cancelled on 03/06/2009





Phew! That was close. Cancelled at the last minute.</blockquote>


Declared BK the day before the sale was to go through. Smart move. Owner appears to be a lawyer, so may be able to game the system better than most.





FILING INFORMATION



Filing Office: U.S. BANKRUPTCY COURT CENTRAL DISTRICT OF CALIFORNIA (SANTA ANA)

Judge: THEODOR ALBERT

Filing Number: 8:08-BK-11061

Filing Chapter: CHAPTER 7

Filing Date: 03/05/2008

Filing Type: BANKRUPTCY</blockquote>




For those us unfamiliar with bankruptcy laws and what effect bk has on foreclosure, can anyone tell us what this means?



Is the foreclosure postponed? Stopped? Negated? How does the lender get theirs?

Or might there be a cramdown?</blockquote>


I'm no BK attorney. With that disclaimer: Under a Chapter 7 BK, the foreclosure is postponed, and all debts -- including the mortgage/seconds/HELOCs -- are cancelled. The lender still has a lien on the property, and will still take possession, so that' s how they will get theirs.



The cramdown happens in Chapter 13, where you're presenting a "repayment" plan you think you can manage. Seconds, HELOC's, etc. end up wiped out if the home's equity is less than the amount of the first mortgage. Seconds, HELOC's become unsecured debt, and if the debtor has no resources with which to make payment....



Good, simple resource:



<a href="http://www.nolo.com/siteIncludes/printerfriendly.cfm/objectID/2EDC2263-F176-4A5C-ABEA8F50A263A60C/213/317/ART/">How Bankruptcy Can Help With Foreclosure</a>
 
For us voyeurs, another 2003 price hit:



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/18-Running-Brook-Dr-92679/home/5823072">18 Running Brook</a>





and check out these fancy price manipulations which encourage renewed interest with every change:



Date Event Price Source

Nov 21, 2008 Price Changed $1,099,000 -- SoCalMLS #S544812

Nov 19, 2008 Price Changed $1,050,000 -- SoCalMLS #S544812

Oct 31, 2008 Price Changed $1,175,000 -- SoCalMLS #S544812

Oct 20, 2008 Price Changed $1,099,000 -- SoCalMLS #S544812

Oct 17, 2008 Price Changed $1,195,000 -- SoCalMLS #S544812

Oct 15, 2008 Price Changed $1,200,000 -- SoCalMLS #S544812

Sep 05, 2008 Price Changed $1,150,000 -- SoCalMLS #S544812

Aug 20, 2008 Listed $1,299,000 -- SoCalMLS #S544812

Jun 27, 2003 Sold $1,075,000 -- Public Records
 
I never really liked the title of this thread, "Bloodbath in Coto". It seemed that bloodbath was more descriptive of the Inland Empire or the Sacramento or the Detroit re market, but Coto appeared to be a bit sticky. Extreme price decreases in Coto were only a fantasy for some of us.







Well, here we go. Could this be a 2000/2001 price in Coto?







<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/31832-Via-Coyote-92679/home/5056160">31832 Via Coyote</a> sold for $1,150,000 on 8/31/2005 and $379,500 in 1994 according to Redfin/Zillow. It was listed today as a short sale for $729,500, and I don't think this is a bank trolling price because $298 per sq ft is only a little unrealistic on the high side in The Village at this point. So far, the short sale listing price is a 36% haircut from the 2005 sales price.







Take note sellers, potential sellers, and realtors, the distressed market is the market.
 
[quote author="trabucodom" date=1236732295]How about this Coto flip: mls: S565544

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/31991-Via-Gallo-92679/home/5055534



It sold in January for $380k when it was all torn apart. Someone did a superfast remodel and back on the market last week. It sold in less than a week after being listed at $649k. Me and my wife checked it out in December and the place was a disaster. It looks like they knew what they were doing.</blockquote>


How did you find out that it had sold? I do not know how to figure out if a property has sold until it comes up on zillow as sold and that is usually months later.
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1236751015]looks like it is in escrow, no?



lately, i've seen over 1/3 of escrows fall apart.</blockquote>


How can you tell it is in escrow?
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1236758813]technically, i can't. i just use the "backup offers accepted" as a proxy.</blockquote>


Where do you see, "backup offers accepted"? In Redfin?
 
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