Bloodbath in Coto de Caza

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According to Redfin, 46 homes were listed for sale in Coto in the last 30 days. A few of those were probably relistings.

7 homes closed escrow in the month of January.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1237672217]According to Redfin, 46 homes were listed for sale in Coto in the last 30 days. A few of those were probably relistings.

7 homes closed escrow in the month of January.</blockquote>
So once values fall below rental parity in Coto, you'll be a future resident over there Awgee?
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1237710958][quote author="awgee" date=1237672217]According to Redfin, 46 homes were listed for sale in Coto in the last 30 days. A few of those were probably relistings.

7 homes closed escrow in the month of January.</blockquote>
So once values fall below rental parity in Coto, you'll be a future resident over there Awgee?</blockquote>


Nah, too snooty for me.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1237761695][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1237710958][quote author="awgee" date=1237672217]According to Redfin, 46 homes were listed for sale in Coto in the last 30 days. A few of those were probably relistings.

7 homes closed escrow in the month of January.</blockquote>
So once values fall below rental parity in Coto, you'll be a future resident over there Awgee?</blockquote>


Nah, too snooty for me.</blockquote>
Don't want to live next to the OC housewives, eh? haha
 
<a href="http://www.ocregister.com/articles/million-belterra-homes-2341961-listed-coto#">Coto Mansions not selling</a>







OMG! My favorite is a quote by Bobbi Mezger, <em>"My open house traffic has definitely increased," Mezger said.</em>

Bwa-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha! I think I have heard that every month for the past two years. Can you imagine how desperate a realtor has to be for something positive to say to refer to a "sure" hard stat like open house traffic?





My second favorite is from John Evans, <em>"The springtime sales period really tells the tale historically."</em>



Evans has held open houses at the estate for the past two weekends.



<em>"There's no question people are starting to actively look and make offers,"

</em>







Yup, there is no question. Check out the latest monthly inventory numbers from Steve Thomas.







Slice Lists Deals Time (mo.) 2 wks. ago 1 yr. ago 2 yr. ago

?$0-$250k 2,106 688 3.06 3.05 6.45 5.60

?$250-500k 3,634 1252 2.90 3.12 6.45 5.60

?$500-750k 2,145 466 4.60 4.25 7.23 5.57

?$750k-$1m 1,166 157 7.43 7.77 7.93 5.87

?$1-1.5m 1,005 62 16.21 13.57 10.66 6.64

?$1.5-2m 602 32 18.81 31.74 12.43 7.62

?$2m-4m 704 22 32.00 33.80 16.98 12.49

?$4m+ 372 10 37.20 37.60 17.67 14.00

All O.C. 11,606 2,670 4.35 4.41 7.50 6.09
 
This info comes from a blog, <a href="http://www.ocrealestatevoice.com/market-conditions/microscop-on-the-market-coto-de-caza/">microscope on Coto</a>, that appears to be written by a realtor:





In Coto:

The highest priced home currently in escrow is $1,099,000.

The highest sale in the last 30 days is $1.6 million.

The highest sale in the last 6 months per SocalMLS was $2.9 million.

The only sale over $2.9 in the last 12 months was the record sale on Violeta for $19.5 million. There have been no sales other sales over $2.9.

In the preceding 12 months there were 7 sales over $2.9 million ranging from $3.2 million to as high as $6,643,750. (Where did that buyer profile go?)

Currently, there are 24 homes over $2.9 in Coto de Caza - 16% of the active inventory.





With the above in mind, here is a new listing:



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/11-Canada-Oaks-92679/home/5020597">11 Canada Oaks</a>





Check out the previous selling prices from 2006 and 2007:



Mar 23, 2009 Listed $2,495,000 -- SoCalMLS #S568349

Jan 22, 2007 Sold $2,360,000 9.0%/yr Public Records

Nov 18, 2006 Listed * -- Inactive SoCalMLS #1

Apr 14, 2006 Sold $2,208,000
 
[quote author="caycifish" date=1237348924][quote author="graphrix" date=1237045945]



Looks like some serious HELOC abuse, with possibly two other liens having gone back to the bank. But... the first comes first, and that $1.8mil bad boy is scheduled for the Placentia auction on 3/17. You can check out the status in real time <a href="http://www.priorityposting.com/">here by clicking on advanced search.</a></blockquote>


Sale Date/Time: 3/17/2009 10:00 AM

Status: <strong>Postponed to [strike]03/25/2009[/strike] 05/01/2009</strong> @ 10:00 AM - Beneficiary Request

Estimated Debt: $1,896,764.78

Bid Amount: N/A

Sale Amount: N/A

TS Number: CA-08-126922-MO

APN: 814-091-03

Priority #: 391087



Property County: Orange

Property Address: 6 VIA PRESEA, COTO DE CAZA, CA 92679</blockquote>
 
<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/8-Weber-Ln-92679/home/5823277">8 Weber Lane</a> has been on the market for 478 days according to Redfin. Maybe the bank needs to accept one of the lower offers.





There is a business called "American Team Mortgage" which shows 8 Weber Lane, 92679 as a business address. Isn't that curious? According to the American Team Mortgage website, they have a Loss Modification and Loan Mitigation department. Maybe they can help out the owner of



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/8-Weber-Ln-92679/home/5823277">8 Weber Lane</a>.







Friday

4/17/2009 12:00:00 PM Address: 8 WEBER LANE



City: COTO DE CAZA

State: CA

Zip: 926790000

County: Orange

APN: 755-264-37

Sale Status: Postponed to 04/17/2009

(Beneficiary's Request)

TS Number: GM162949C

ASAP Number: 2946047

Notice of Sale Amt: $1,175,562.62

Opening Bid Amt: 0

Sold Amt: 0

Sale Location: At the North front entrance to the County Courthouse, 700 Civic Center Drive West, Santa Ana, CA.



Trustee: Executive Trustee Services, Inc.

Trustee Phone#: (818)260-1600
 
[quote author="Chuck" date=1235614330]Wow, the lot size is over an acre, although from the photo it looks like much of it is on an incline and unusable.....



Tempting, although I still can't get over the weird vibe I get when I go through the Coto gates (maybe its the Real Housewives), and Coto really is pretty much in the middle of nowhere in my opinion. But maybe if prices drop another 30%........</blockquote>


You just got 10% of that today. The price on <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/3-Palomino-92679/home/5054658">3 Palomino</a> was reduced by 10%. Yup, 10% in one shot. Now that is a lender owned property for you. By interpolation from the 1996 sale and the 2005 sale, this is a 2000/2001 price. If this property sells for the new listing price of $1,033,200, that is a decrease of 42% off the 2005 sale price. Do you remember when we were accused of all sorts of things for saying that prices would decrease by 25%, 35%, 40%, 50%? Do you still think I am just blowing smoke when I say that prices will decrease by 78% in real vs. nominal dollars? And at those prices, most folks who are waiting or want to buy a home will not be able to?







As an aside, the listing agent has not put a sign out front, or had an open house, or had the place cleaned since the last home debtors left.
 
Maybe the equity owners are learning a few tricks from the banks.

If the distressed property is the market, what can a non-distressed home owner do?

Emulate a distressed property and get some bids?

Redfin does not show <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/16-Via-Terracaleta-92679/home/5054777">16 Via Terracaleta</a> as a short sale, but the price reduction is just the sort of behavior shown by the bank REO properties in order to get bids and find out what the "worth" may be.

Check out the price history at the bottom of the Redfin listing.

-31% in one day? I doubt it.

And this property has been listed off and on since October of 2007. Talk about chasing the market down. Maybe they have gotten smart and are getting their price under the market?
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1232235380][quote author="awgee" date=1231194638]Sometime within the last two weeks, there was a real price drop of $24,000 to $1,025,000.

And now, another drop of $25,100 to $999,900 which takes it under $300 per sq ft.

Did I mention that this property is also for lease at $4,600 per month?



26 Sawgrass</blockquote>
Maybe relist it?

<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/26-Sawgrass-92679/home/5019816">26 Sawgrass</a></blockquote>


Off Redfin after at least 28 price changes and 8 relistings. Will it come back again soon? Or did they get it leased?
 
We interviewed a realtor who suggested the price low and hope for multiple offers / a bidding war strategy. I found it interesting from a marketing psychology perspective; but since that seemed to be her only sales tactic, I wasn't willing to play the game.





Hmm... looks like Via Terracaleta sold for $580,000 in 1997, so $920,000 is still approx 4% yearly appreciation, yes? Doesn't sound terrible to me, but I'm sure many feel it's an absolute give away price.
 
[quote author="Axiom" date=1238726200]We interviewed a realtor who suggested the price low and hope for multiple offers / a bidding war strategy. I found it interesting from a marketing psychology perspective; but since that seemed to be her only sales tactic, I wasn't willing to play the game.





Hmm... looks like Via Terracaleta sold for $580,000 in 1997, so $920,000 is still approx 4% yearly appreciation, yes? Doesn't sound terrible to me, but I'm sure many feel it's an absolute give away price.</blockquote>


I would tend to think that in this market, a low listing price in order to get under the market value is the only way to go. So, I guess I would agree with that realtor from a marketing perspective. The reasoning is that if you start off just a little too high, then you get no offers. And then you lower your price a bit. But, since some time has gone by, prices have further deteriorated and your listing price is still too high, even though it is low compared to a few months ago. Now you are chasing the market down until finally the property is underwater and it either goes as a short sale or foreclosure. If you have a few minutes, look at the pricing history of many of the home for sale presently. IMO, it is not a game, but rather the most realistic method of selling a property in this market.







Re. Via Terracaleta, IMO, it matters not what anybody feels about the price. It matters only what the next buyer is willing to pay. And Via Terracaleta may be a good example of chasing the market down, when if they had just underpriced it a bit in the beginning, it would have sold for a lot more than it will sell for now.
 
I agree about pricing ahead of the trend, especially in a down market.



But the price it low realtor I mentioned above suggested we list almost 25% below the most recent comp to try and get a bidding war going. Sounded like a sure thing for her, and a gamble for us.



Instead we listed approx 8% under the most recent sold comp, and then came down another 2% or so for a quick close. Ticked all our neighbors off big time, but we were moving, so what did we care?





I can prove your point about chasing the market with that house as an example though. This was about 2 years ago, and a builder in the same neighborhood had his custom McMansion on the market at the same time. His asking price was the appraised value, and he refused to drop much below that. I know he turned down at least 2 "low ball" offers (both of which were over a million dollars) I bet he's kicking himself for not taking one of those "ridiculous low balls" now.



Current asking price: $570,000

Description:

"Recent Sale Fell Out. Go,Go,Go. Will Be Gone Soon. Submit All Offers Preforclosure.This Appraised For 1.3 Just 2 Years Ago. A Steal At Less Than Half Price. Builders Own Home. 24X38 Rv Garage. Can't Duplicate This In Arrowhead. Great Mountain And Lake Views. Vacant."



(MLS#: 4100799)





Sorry for going so far OT



Back to awgee and Coto info ;)



(edited to remove broken link)
 
Please feel free to go OT. Anything to feel like I am not talking to myself. :cheese:





Back in March <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/9-Shire-92679/home/5054746">9 Shire</a> was listed for sale. (I have previewed this home during an open house and it is drop dead gorgeous.) And yesterday <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/5-Shire-92679/home/5054737">5 Shire</a> went on the market. If I were the owners of 7 Shire, I would be a bit paranoid. Or maybe I would realize that the novelty of camera crews and trucks wears quickly for the neighbors.



Either the owners of 9 Shire are aware of what it takes to get offers in this market, or they just really hate camera crews and trucks. Another $680,000 decrease for a total decrease of $800,000 off the original listing price or -23%.



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/9-Shire-92679/home/5054746">9 Shire</a>
 
Sometimes ya gotta shake your head.







Check out the sales history for <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/18-Water-Lily-Way-92679/home/5013082">18 Water Lily Way.</a>







Date Event Price Appreciation Source

Mar 09, 2009 Price Changed $1,345,000 -- SoCalMLS #S560072

Jan 27, 2009 Price Changed $1,485,000 -- SoCalMLS #S560072

Jan 16, 2009 Listed $1,499,000 -- SoCalMLS #S560072

May 08, 2008 Sold $1,512,000 40.3%/yr Public Records

May 03, 2008 Off Redfin * -- Inactive SoCalMLS #2

Apr 24, 2008 Price Changed * -- Inactive SoCalMLS #2

Mar 22, 2008 Listed * -- Inactive SoCalMLS #2

Sep 24, 2007 Sold $1,225,000 8.2%/yr Public Records









Is there somthin' hinckey goin' on here?
 
<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/1522/P125/#62924">I need to check as to what happened with 6 and 10 Water Lily</a>.
 
[quote author="CalGal" date=1223945333][quote author="awgee" date=1223940885][quote author="awgee" date=1215927109]The bank is serious about unloading this lead weight. The listing price on 23302 Via Pardal is lowered again to $614,850 from $627,396. That is $195 per sq. ft. in Coto.




And I Fee-e-e-el good.</blockquote>


Now $590,502.</blockquote>
. . . and still sitting.</blockquote>






It's ba-a-a-a-a-a-ck.

<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Coto-De-Caza/23302-Via-Pardal-92679/home/5055613">23302 Via Pardal</a>
 
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