A new escrow thread for a new housing market...

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="CK" date=1241912685][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1241877247]



The job market is so poor right now, I don't even think I'll start looking in earnest until Fall. It's very possible that I won't be working in another full-time career position until sometime next year. I figure I will take the opportunity to start working out again, drop 20-30 pounds, and spend some serious quality time with the kids. When life gives you lemons...</blockquote>


Great perspective.



Does this mean I won't run into you at Old Navy anymore? I mean, with a single income in your family you can hardly justify shopping at high end retailers like that anymore. ;)</blockquote>


When stuff is on sale there, it's just as cheap as Target. Let's plan a date to refresh the summer wardrobes for the kids :)
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1241918870]

Sorry to hear the bad news IPO. What was the basis for the bank pullin the line of credit? </blockquote>


Covenant violations with regards to two ratios that can't be corrected without an infusion of outside capital.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1241877247]Thanks cco and awgee. I have survived in my position longer than I thought so for that I am thankful. So many others are under much more financial distress than my family will ever experience... For us, it will mean no retirement or college savings until I land another position and perhaps dipping into savings for a grand or so per month. Fortunately the wife has a very secure job with a decent income and great benefits.



The job market is so poor right now, I don't even think I'll start looking in earnest until Fall. It's very possible that I won't be working in another full-time career position until sometime next year. I figure I will take the opportunity to start working out again, drop 20-30 pounds, and spend some serious quality time with the kids. When life gives you lemons...</blockquote>


IPO - you have public acct background and CFO experience. Is the market that bad? I would think with your resume even in these times you could find something. It's nice to have the luxury of being selective in your search. Best of luck to you.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1242107914]<img src="http://www.ipoplaya.com/051109.jpg" alt="" /></blockquote>


What significance do you think this portends for the next year of housing prices in Irvine?
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1242112358]

What significance do you think this portends for the next year of housing prices in Irvine?</blockquote>


I really have no idea. If you would have asked me that question a year ago, given that we all expected many more foreclosures, a slowing economy, large unemployment, etc. I'd have probably guessed that it portended (is that a word?) significantly lower prices today and been wrong. To clarify, I don't consider a 5% drop in home prices over the course of a year in the face of the worst unemployment in decades a significant decline especially given how far over rental parity many homes are still selling for today. Sorry for that run-on. Frankly I am amazed that prices could rally materially in this economic environment. I'm amazed that lenders are confident enough to underwrite loans at or above recent comps... Are they no longer expecting signficant downside in residential RE?
 
I question whether that is underwriting or buyers putting significant cash down on properties. Regardless of the reason, Irvine prices are proving resilient. Of course, until the foreclosures have run their course, I still believe prices are going to fall.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1242114753]I question whether that is underwriting or buyers putting significant cash down on properties. Regardless of the reason, Irvine prices are proving resilient. Of course, until the foreclosures have run their course, I still believe prices are going to fall.</blockquote>
I think the big influence at work here are the ultra low mortgage rates. Sure, many of the buyers are slapping down 30-50% down on these properties but they are also assisted by 4.5% mortgage rates. I don't think it even matters about the future foreclosures, I think increases in the mortgage rates above 6-7% will begin to crush housing prices in places like Irvine. I must admit that I am a little surprised that newer places like Woodbury and Quail Hill are holding up the way they are despite most of the buyers buying the major bubble years.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1242114995][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1242114753]I question whether that is underwriting or buyers putting significant cash down on properties. Regardless of the reason, Irvine prices are proving resilient. Of course, until the foreclosures have run their course, I still believe prices are going to fall.</blockquote>
I think the big influence at work here are the ultra low mortgage rates. Sure, many of the buyers are slapping down 30-50% down on these properties but they are also assisted by 4.5% mortgage rates. I don't think it even matters about the future foreclosures, I think increases in the mortgage rates above 6-7% will begin to crush housing prices in places like Irvine. I must admit that I am a little surprised that newer places like Woodbury and Quail Hill are holding up the way they are despite most of the buyers buying the major bubble years.</blockquote>


If you had your condo in QH still SC, how much do you think it would be worth relative to what you sold for? I think our West Irvine place, sold almost a year ago, is worth perhaps 5% less today... My sense is that QH hasn't declined much if at all since you sold.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1242114288][quote author="awgee" date=1242112358]

What significance do you think this portends for the next year of housing prices in Irvine?</blockquote>


I really have no idea. If you would have asked me that question a year ago, given that we all expected many more foreclosures, a slowing economy, large unemployment, etc. I'd have probably guessed that it portended (is that a word?) significantly lower prices today and been wrong. To clarify, I don't consider a 5% drop in home prices over the course of a year in the face of the worst unemployment in decades a significant decline especially given how far over rental parity many homes are still selling for today. Sorry for that run-on. Frankly I am amazed that prices could rally materially in this economic environment. I'm amazed that lenders are confident enough to underwrite loans at or above recent comps... Are they no longer expecting signficant downside in residential RE?</blockquote>


Portended a word? Why not?



I don't know who is expecting more downtrend in res re prices and who does not, but I would not generalize Irvine's stickiness to the general market. Personally, I do not think Irvine's stickiness will last, but I have been saying that over a year now. Coto is finally getting hammered, especially the higher end. And May escrow openings are not starting off anything like April's in Coto. $700k homes were flying of the shelf in April and even some the $1.7MM - $3.6MM homes sold. Check out this article on <a href="http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/10-reasons-why-buying-a-home-in-southern-california-today-is-a-mistake-california-housing-and-financial-market-analysis-produces-no-green-shoots/">10 Reasons Why Buying a Home in Southern California today is a Mistake. California Housing and Financial Market Analysis produces no Green Shoots.</a>
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1242116688][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1242114995][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1242114753]I question whether that is underwriting or buyers putting significant cash down on properties. Regardless of the reason, Irvine prices are proving resilient. Of course, until the foreclosures have run their course, I still believe prices are going to fall.</blockquote>
I think the big influence at work here are the ultra low mortgage rates. Sure, many of the buyers are slapping down 30-50% down on these properties but they are also assisted by 4.5% mortgage rates. I don't think it even matters about the future foreclosures, I think increases in the mortgage rates above 6-7% will begin to crush housing prices in places like Irvine. I must admit that I am a little surprised that newer places like Woodbury and Quail Hill are holding up the way they are despite most of the buyers buying the major bubble years.</blockquote>


If you had your condo in QH still SC, how much do you think it would be worth relative to what you sold for? I think our West Irvine place, sold almost a year ago, is worth perhaps 5% less today... My sense is that QH hasn't declined much if at all since you sold.</blockquote>
Actually, I'd be down about 5% today. There are 2 of my floorplans that are sitting at $590k and $600k and collecting dust. I'm sure if I had a detached condo or SFR then I'd be very close to being flat as the attached condos are taking the bigger hits. Besides, I enjoy paying $1,400 and change for rent isn't of the $3,400 nut I had to pay for the condo each month.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1242120353][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1242114288][quote author="awgee" date=1242112358]

What significance do you think this portends for the next year of housing prices in Irvine?</blockquote>


I really have no idea. If you would have asked me that question a year ago, given that we all expected many more foreclosures, a slowing economy, large unemployment, etc. I'd have probably guessed that it portended (is that a word?) significantly lower prices today and been wrong. To clarify, I don't consider a 5% drop in home prices over the course of a year in the face of the worst unemployment in decades a significant decline especially given how far over rental parity many homes are still selling for today. Sorry for that run-on. Frankly I am amazed that prices could rally materially in this economic environment. I'm amazed that lenders are confident enough to underwrite loans at or above recent comps... Are they no longer expecting signficant downside in residential RE?</blockquote>


Portended a word? Why not?



I don't know who is expecting more downtrend in res re prices and who does not, but I would not generalize Irvine's stickiness to the general market. Personally, I do not think Irvine's stickiness will last, but I have been saying that over a year now. Coto is finally getting hammered, especially the higher end. And May escrow openings are not starting off anything like April's in Coto. $700k homes were flying of the shelf in April and even some the $1.7MM - $3.6MM homes sold. Check out this article on <a href="http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/10-reasons-why-buying-a-home-in-southern-california-today-is-a-mistake-california-housing-and-financial-market-analysis-produces-no-green-shoots/">10 Reasons Why Buying a Home in Southern California today is a Mistake. California Housing and Financial Market Analysis produces no Green Shoots.</a></blockquote>
You and IR were completely right about waiting to buy when interest rates are high.
 
Liked the article - 10 reason.... but the charts were too small on my laptop, so could not get the full effect. Still informative though.
 
According to DataQuick late April home prices increased in four out of eight Irvine zip codes.







<a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/05/15/prices-up-in-9-oc-zips-in-late-april/22453/">DataQuick on Lansner's blog</a>
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1242440385]According to DataQuick late April home prices increased in four out of eight Irvine zip codes.







<a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/05/15/prices-up-in-9-oc-zips-in-late-april/22453/">DataQuick on Lansner's blog</a></blockquote>


So is this our Spring dead cat bounce? I'm hoping by Fall/Winter the new REOs will start crushing the market again. Any predictions for the end of 2009?
 
[quote author="IACRenter" date=1242451778][quote author="awgee" date=1242440385]According to DataQuick late April home prices increased in four out of eight Irvine zip codes.







<a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/05/15/prices-up-in-9-oc-zips-in-late-april/22453/">DataQuick on Lansner's blog</a></blockquote>


So is this our Spring dead cat bounce? I'm hoping by Fall/Winter the new REOs will start crushing the market again. Any predictions for the end of 2009?</blockquote>


Pain!
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1242457093][quote author="IACRenter" date=1242451778][quote author="awgee" date=1242440385]According to DataQuick late April home prices increased in four out of eight Irvine zip codes.







<a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/05/15/prices-up-in-9-oc-zips-in-late-april/22453/">DataQuick on Lansner's blog</a></blockquote>


So is this our Spring dead cat bounce? I'm hoping by Fall/Winter the new REOs will start crushing the market again. Any predictions for the end of 2009?</blockquote>


<strong></strong>MAJOR Pain!</blockquote>
To be followed by more pain in 2010.
 
According to DataQuick, of the six Orange County zip codes with price gains, <a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/">three are located in Irvine.</a> I know ya'all wanna buy in Irvine, but with prices falling just about everywhere but Irvine, I would give serious consideration to other nice neighborhoods in Orange County.
 
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