A new escrow thread for a new housing market...

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="awgee" date=1242780404]According to DataQuick, of the six Orange County zip codes with price gains, <a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/">three are located in Irvine.</a> I know ya'all wanna buy in Irvine, but with prices falling just about everywhere but Irvine, I would give serious consideration to other nice neighborhoods in Orange County.</blockquote>
But the sheople don't like non-Irvine cities. I'd love to buy in Irvine again, but it's hard competing with dual income earners with kids who can pay a lot more due to the good schools which causes the big premium than a single euro like me. :(
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1242780404]According to DataQuick, of the six Orange County zip codes with price gains, <a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/">three are located in Irvine.</a> I know ya'all wanna buy in Irvine, but with prices falling just about everywhere but Irvine, I would give serious consideration to other nice neighborhoods in Orange County.</blockquote>


Awgee, what non-Irvine nice neighborhoods do you recommend? When the DOW hits 4,000, unemployment surges to 10-15%, mortgage rates are at 7-10% and rest of OC is selling at 1999 prices while Irvine is still selling at 2005 prices, that's when Panda will buy a Coach bag in Aliso Viejo.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1242786516][quote author="awgee" date=1242780404]According to DataQuick, of the six Orange County zip codes with price gains, <a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/">three are located in Irvine.</a> I know ya'all wanna buy in Irvine, but with prices falling just about everywhere but Irvine, I would give serious consideration to other nice neighborhoods in Orange County.</blockquote>


Awgee, what non-Irvine nice neighborhoods do you recommend? When the DOW hits 4,000, unemployment surges to 10-15%, mortgage rates are at 7-10% and rest of OC is selling at 1999 prices while Irvine is still selling at 2005 prices, that's when Panda will buy a Coach bag in Aliso Viejo.</blockquote>


Rossmoor, Yorba Linda, Portola Hills, Dove Canyon, parts of Fullerton, parts of Orange, Dana Point, Anaheim Hills, Laguna Hills, Aliso Viejo, Laguna Niguel, RSM, Ladera Ranch, Mission Viejo, Huntington Beach, Seal Beach. Avoid Villa Park and Coto de Caza.
 
[quote author="24inIrvine" date=1242785173]Ipo, is there anyway to see the excel sheet instead of PDF? I'd love to see how the formulas are derived so I can understand it better.</blockquote>


<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.xls">Clicky this linky</a>
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1242789882]Rossmoor, Yorba Linda, Portola Hills, Dove Canyon, parts of Fullerton, parts of Orange, Dana Point, Anaheim Hills, Laguna Hills, Aliso Viejo, Laguna Niguel, RSM, Ladera Ranch, Mission Viejo, Huntington Beach, Seal Beach. Avoid Villa Park and Coto de Caza.</blockquote>


Also avoid North Tustin. Hillbillies like no_vas with their cars on blocks and the no sidewalks ruin the neighborhood. Also avoid the Floral Park area of Santa Ana, you might get shot at by OG triad gangstas.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1242818771][quote author="awgee" date=1242789882]Rossmoor, Yorba Linda, Portola Hills, Dove Canyon, parts of Fullerton, parts of Orange, Dana Point, Anaheim Hills, Laguna Hills, Aliso Viejo, Laguna Niguel, RSM, Ladera Ranch, Mission Viejo, Huntington Beach, Seal Beach. Avoid Villa Park and Coto de Caza.</blockquote>


Also avoid North Tustin. Hillbillies like no_vas with their cars on blocks and the no sidewalks ruin the neighborhood. Also avoid the Floral Park area of Santa Ana, you might get shot at by OG triad gangstas.</blockquote>


I got all the suspension done so it rolls now. The exhaust/clutch cable has been another story.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1243292756]The Irvine price rally is losing some steam...



<img src="http://www.ipoplaya.com/052509.jpg" alt="" /></blockquote>


I want to.... but I don't get your graph. It sure would be nice for the rows to be labeled for us morons.
 
[quote author="gypsyuma" date=1243311221][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1243292756]The Irvine price rally is losing some steam...



<img src="http://www.ipoplaya.com/052509.jpg" alt="" /></blockquote>


I want to.... but I don't get your graph. It sure would be nice for the rows to be labeled for us morons.</blockquote>


Now C'mon, there are no morons here except for the Panda. Let me share with you what i know. Obviously the $680,000 number is the median home price for the month to date in May. The top 194.52 is median value of all the Irvine homes sold in May and the 197.66 is the 3 Month moving average. The .25% is the percentage increase from the median value to the 3 Mo moving average. If you goto IPO web site at www.ipoplaya.com, he shows you the index when the home was previously purchased and the new index with the latest close. The ratio shows us previous index vs. current index. For example if the ratio is .80, the previous owner sold his home at a 20% loss. If the ratio is 2.3, the previous home owner sold his home for 230% higher than what he purchased it for. This information in invaluable with IR2's chart which shows how the Irvine homes have been purchased (downpayment/mortgage). Hope this helps. We should all thank IPO and IR2 for taking the time to do this for us all.



Panda
 
<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/">Just added 70 new escrows to tracking and got back to current after a two-week hiatus.</a> I can't believe some of these went under contract with those list prices...



Found around 10 places that went back active as well.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1242789882][quote author="PANDA" date=1242786516][quote author="awgee" date=1242780404]According to DataQuick, of the six Orange County zip codes with price gains, <a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/">three are located in Irvine.</a> I know ya'all wanna buy in Irvine, but with prices falling just about everywhere but Irvine, I would give serious consideration to other nice neighborhoods in Orange County.</blockquote>


Awgee, what non-Irvine nice neighborhoods do you recommend? When the DOW hits 4,000, unemployment surges to 10-15%, mortgage rates are at 7-10% and rest of OC is selling at 1999 prices while Irvine is still selling at 2005 prices, that's when Panda will buy a Coach bag in Aliso Viejo.</blockquote>


Rossmoor, Yorba Linda, Portola Hills, Dove Canyon, parts of Fullerton, parts of Orange, Dana Point, Anaheim Hills, Laguna Hills, Aliso Viejo, Laguna Niguel, RSM, Ladera Ranch, Mission Viejo, Huntington Beach, Seal Beach. Avoid Villa Park and Coto de Caza.</blockquote>


What about Foothill Ranch? Prices there have already surpassed the magic $250/sf mark. I have read the threads about the house quality being on the low end, but I thought many homes I looked at in Irvine were also of low quality. I guess if you are getting it at a low price, then upgrades may be more affordable.



And of the areas you mentioned, which ones have upstanding reputations for their schools like Irvine does? You know, for us shitty parents who rely on school quality to mold our children.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1243518572]<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/">Just added 70 new escrows to tracking and got back to current after a two-week hiatus.</a> I can't believe some of these went under contract with those list prices...



Found around 10 places that went back active as well.</blockquote>


I'm not sure if I read it here or somewhere else, but isn't it "customary" for the listing agents of properties going to escrow with an offer way below the list price to make a final price reduction very close to the actual sale price just before delisting the property, to create the illusion that the listing and sale prices were very close? It wouldn't affect that transaction, but it sure affects the future listings with wishful pricing and makes the potential buyers stick closer to the listing price in their offers...
 
[quote author="Mazy" date=1243897711][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1243518572]<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/">Just added 70 new escrows to tracking and got back to current after a two-week hiatus.</a> I can't believe some of these went under contract with those list prices...



Found around 10 places that went back active as well.</blockquote>


I'm not sure if I read it here or somewhere else, but isn't it "customary" for the listing agents of properties going to escrow with an offer way below the list price to make a final price reduction very close to the actual sale price just before delisting the property, to create the illusion that the listing and sale prices were very close? It wouldn't affect that transaction, but it sure affects the future listings with wishful pricing and makes the potential buyers stick closer to the listing price in their offers...</blockquote>


Yes, that is exactly what happens, and that is exactly why realtors do it.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1243900120][quote author="Mazy" date=1243897711][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1243518572]<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/">Just added 70 new escrows to tracking and got back to current after a two-week hiatus.</a> I can't believe some of these went under contract with those list prices...



Found around 10 places that went back active as well.</blockquote>


I'm not sure if I read it here or somewhere else, but isn't it "customary" for the listing agents of properties going to escrow with an offer way below the list price to make a final price reduction very close to the actual sale price just before delisting the property, to create the illusion that the listing and sale prices were very close? It wouldn't affect that transaction, but it sure affects the future listings with wishful pricing and makes the potential buyers stick closer to the listing price in their offers...</blockquote>


Yes, that is exactly what happens, and that is exactly why realtors do it.</blockquote>


Myth... For 2008 in Irvine, the average discount to list was around 3.5%. In 2009, that is more like 3%.



It is "customary" for homes (at least for those that get into escrow and get sold) to be priced close to current market and the discount to list of the final sales price to be only a small percentage.
 
Doesn't MLS track the original list price anyways? So if you look on IrvineRealtor's site... I believe his spreadsheet shows the original list price so you can accurately determine what the actual discount was.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1243903129]Doesn't MLS track the original list price anyways? So if you look on IrvineRealtor's site... I believe his spreadsheet shows the original list price so you can accurately determine what the actual discount was.</blockquote>


The spreadsheet that I post, <strong><a href="http://irvinerealtorsite.com/IrvineDowns.xls">http://irvinerealtorsite.com/IrvineDowns.xls</a></strong> (and updated through May today) shows the lowest list price before close of escrow. I use that figure instead of original list price intentionally because I guessed that buyers would want to know what price triggered the purchase. In other words, "How close do sellers have to cast the bait to get the buyers to bite?"



SalePrice to OriginalListPrice is a basic stat to pull - for Irvine so far this year, it is 93% - a 7% discount on average.

SalePrice to ListPrice is 96% over the same period - a 4% average discount.



<strong>for 2008:</strong>

SP/OLP - 92.7%

SP/LP - 96%



<strong>for 2007:</strong>

SP/OLP - 93%

SP/LP - 96%



Steady as she goes...



To the previous concern, however, I believe it is incredibly rare that brokers change the list price before closing, but I have seen it done.

It is generally not in the best interest of the sellers to disclose what the strike price is, as it may risk putting a "cap" on their home pricing should it fall out of escrow.



I hope this helps clarify,

-IR2
 
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