A new escrow thread for a new housing market...

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1240903148][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1240638992]Wow, just saw 10 new escrows come through. I have 25 new ones over the past three days that I need to add... The new Bubble has begun.</blockquote>


Make that 37 new escrow entrants over the past six days. <a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com">Finally updated them all.</a> Phew... That is tiring.



Looks like April will likely end up showing a small price decrease for the month, probably around 1% or so down vs. March.</blockquote>


Have you considered using a 3-period moving average to smooth things out a bit? A quarterly average is probably a bit more accurate even if there is a bit of lag.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1240909056][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1240903148][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1240638992]Wow, just saw 10 new escrows come through. I have 25 new ones over the past three days that I need to add... The new Bubble has begun.</blockquote>


Make that 37 new escrow entrants over the past six days. <a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com">Finally updated them all.</a> Phew... That is tiring.



Looks like April will likely end up showing a small price decrease for the month, probably around 1% or so down vs. March.</blockquote>


Have you considered using a 3-period moving average to smooth things out a bit? A quarterly average is probably a bit more accurate even if there is a bit of lag.</blockquote>


I did a two-month look yesterday and prices for Mar-Apr are down .75% from Jan-Feb. Jan-Feb was down almost 5% from Nov-Dec... Or in simpler terms, this suggests that price declines really slowed at the beginning of the year.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1240909433][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1240909056][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1240903148][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1240638992]Wow, just saw 10 new escrows come through. I have 25 new ones over the past three days that I need to add... The new Bubble has begun.</blockquote>


Make that 37 new escrow entrants over the past six days. <a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com">Finally updated them all.</a> Phew... That is tiring.



Looks like April will likely end up showing a small price decrease for the month, probably around 1% or so down vs. March.</blockquote>


Have you considered using a 3-period moving average to smooth things out a bit? A quarterly average is probably a bit more accurate even if there is a bit of lag.</blockquote>


I did a two-month look yesterday and prices for Mar-Apr are down .75% from Jan-Feb. Jan-Feb was down almost 5% from Nov-Dec... Or in simpler terms, this suggests that price declines really slowed at the beginning of the year.</blockquote>


I was starting to think we might have a bear rally, but perhaps we will just get a flat step on our staircase to the bottom.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1240909759]



I was starting to think we might have a bear rally, but perhaps we will just get a flat step on our staircase to the bottom.</blockquote>


With the volume of buyers trying to purchase now and the low DOM times, I think that bear market rally could show up in May or June figures... Hard to say though with many places going under contract being short sales. If this level of activity was organic, considering the amount of inventory on the market, I'd think price increases were on the horizon for sure. With many sellers going into escrow under distress, deals might not get done and/or if they do, not necessarily at the maximum price the market might otherwise bear...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1240911018][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1240909759]



I was starting to think we might have a bear rally, but perhaps we will just get a flat step on our staircase to the bottom.</blockquote>


With the volume of buyers trying to purchase now and the low DOM times, I think that bear market rally could show up in May or June figures... Hard to say though with many places going under contract being short sales. If this level of activity was organic, considering the amount of inventory on the market, I'd think price increases were on the horizon for sure. With many sellers going into escrow under distress, deals might not get done and/or if they do, not necessarily at the maximum price the market might otherwise bear...</blockquote>


I agree. If we had organic sellers, they would be more patient and wait for buyers to come to them. Since most of the transactions are REO, and since this pipeline is filling not emptying, REO sellers will pick off the bids rather than hold out for a higher ask.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1240914289][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1240911018][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1240909759]



I was starting to think we might have a bear rally, but perhaps we will just get a flat step on our staircase to the bottom.</blockquote>


With the volume of buyers trying to purchase now and the low DOM times, I think that bear market rally could show up in May or June figures... Hard to say though with many places going under contract being short sales. If this level of activity was organic, considering the amount of inventory on the market, I'd think price increases were on the horizon for sure. With many sellers going into escrow under distress, deals might not get done and/or if they do, not necessarily at the maximum price the market might otherwise bear...</blockquote>


I agree. If we had organic sellers, they would be more patient and wait for buyers to come to them. Since most of the transactions are REO, and since this pipeline is filling not emptying, REO sellers will pick off the bids rather than hold out for a higher ask.</blockquote>
Very true, the sellers (banks) know a lot more than the general public about the tidal wave of foreclosures in the pipeline so they're probably being more reasonable about their price expectations.
 
<em>Total CA new Defaults ? Surging



New loan defaults ? of which a large percentage will turn into foreclosures 5-7 months following the notice month ? are surging. In the past that would be indicative of a major foreclosure wave coming. Now with aggressive moratoria and mortgage mod initiatives in place, the eminent wave may not break all at once. It will break, but could be stretched across more months than typical. One thing is for sure, there is a pig the size of Godzilla in the python right now that has worked its way to the lower intestine. </em>





<em>Pay Option ARM Defaults ? Surging



Pay Option ARM defaults are continuing to surge despite one of the nation?s largest Pay Option holders ? Wachovia ? remaining on near full moratorium.</em>





<em>Jumbo Prime Defaults ? Relentless



The Jumbo Prime default chart is absolutely unique but increasing steadily along with total defaults. Within this category supply this high can?t be absorbed into the housing market because sales over $417k are so slow.



new-jumbo-prime-mar1



Over $750k Loan Amount Defaults ? Surging



Defaults on original loan amounts over $750k are surging with total counts higher than total sales in this segment. Supply from foreclosure is about to hit hard in the mid-to-upper end housing market. And remember, foreclosure supply is only one form and account for only about 35% of total supply.</em>









<a href="http://thefieldcheckgroup.com/blog/">Mark Hanson aka Mr. Mortgage</a>
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1240920577]653 homes are in some stage of foreclosure or have been foreclosed on recently in Irvine per Foreclosure Radar.</blockquote>


Ya gotta wonder if the folks who have bought homes in the last month or so know this or understand the implications, or do they even care?
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1240921082][quote author="graphrix" date=1240920577]653 homes are in some stage of foreclosure or have been foreclosed on recently in Irvine per Foreclosure Radar.</blockquote>


Ya gotta wonder if the folks who have bought homes in the last month or so know this or understand the implications, or do they even care?</blockquote>
I think it's choice D. ALL THE ABOVE I think most people are getting blinded by the ultra low rates to give a crap about future prices because they think these rates are one-in-a-lifetime, kinda like in the 2003-2005 bubble run-up. Small tick ups in prices and MSM reporting increases in sales YOY only help to push those on the fence to pull the trigger because of fearing they'll get priced out again (I'm hearing it from the people that I work with). It's kinda sad that the general public has such a heard mentality and ask like uninformed sheep. Wow, I'm wondering if I'm beginning to sound more of a bear than graphcakes? haha I'm glad that this forum has helped to open my eyes to the truth.
 
Damn, eight more under contract just came through my searches. That makes 13 since I last updated my site around 48 hours ago... I don't have time to keep up!
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1241071363]Damn, eight more under contract just came through my searches. That makes 13 since I last updated my site around 48 hours ago... I don't have time to keep up!</blockquote>
Housing Bubble 2.0
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1240921082][quote author="graphrix" date=1240920577]653 homes are in some stage of foreclosure or have been foreclosed on recently in Irvine per Foreclosure Radar.</blockquote>


Ya gotta wonder if the folks who have bought homes in the last month or so know this or understand the implications, or do they even care?</blockquote>


It's better to buy a home now before your dollars become worthless or before you're forced to return home to perisa, india, hong kong, taiwan, china, korea, russia, south africa of kuwait. At least if you lose your job and your visa expires, your kid can stay in irvine to finish high school.
 
From Lansner's blog:







Builder consultant John Burns from Irvine warns that some real estate stats ? see charts above of national home resales, ?seasonally adjusted? (left) and rolling 12-month trends (right) ? may be misleading ?



Decision makers don?t have time to study all of the data, yet they make huge decisions every day based on what they believe to be the market outlook. Smart decision makers rely on someone who is unbiased to study all of the data and provide a fair outlook.



National sales volumes have not bottomed, as reported earlier this month. New home sales are falling in all regions of the country. Existing home sales have risen sharply in the West and, while they continue to fall elsewhere, it is at a slower rate of decline in more recent months.



Recent headlines based on Seasonally Adjusted (SA) data are misleading. Reporters have been trained to cover the SA numbers each month. While the SA numbers have merit, they bounce around a lot because of sample size, weather, or other issues such as whether Easter is in March or April. These issues are often addressed in the body of the article, or in the later stages of the TV report, but most people unfortunately do not pay attention to the details.xxx



To get a more reliable (but less newsworthy) picture of the housing market, we track a rolling 12-month total of sales. When the rolling 12-month total line flattens or begins to flatten, year-over-year sales have equaled and the appearance of a bottom is beginning to form. This data has some of the same seasonal issues, but is less prone to the wild and misleading headlines that often accompany the Seasonally Adjusted data.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1241842902]The price rally has begun, at least in Irvine...



<img src="http://www.ipoplaya.com/mayprice.jpg" alt="" /></blockquote>


Yeah, but still $65k below Feb. That's a seasonal rally at best.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1241842902]The price rally has begun, at least in Irvine...



<img src="http://www.ipoplaya.com/mayprice.jpg" alt="" /></blockquote>


Has a 2 or 3 period moving average turned higher yet?
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1241843412]



Yeah, but still $65k below Feb. That's a seasonal rally at best.</blockquote>


I don't think it's seasonal at best. Where is the seasonal inventory increase? At this time last year, there were 200 more homes on the market in Irvine. We are at nearly a 2.5 year low in terms of inventory. At the current sales pace, there is probably only 5 months of Irvine supply. This is more at work than simple seasonality. There weren't prices increase during these same months in 2008 and 2007...
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1241843987]



Has a 2 or 3 period moving average turned higher yet?</blockquote>


Yes, although we really need to see a full month of May to say that for sure.



If closing prices at the end of April and early May are an indicator of what the rest of month will show, the 3-mo average will uptick as of May for sure.



<img src="http://www.ipoplaya.com/mayprice3mo.jpg" alt="" />
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1241850543][quote author="Geotpf" date=1241843412]



Yeah, but still $65k below Feb. That's a seasonal rally at best.</blockquote>


I don't think it's seasonal at best. Where is the seasonal inventory increase? At this time last year, there were 200 more homes on the market in Irvine. We are at nearly a 2.5 year low in terms of inventory. At the current sales pace, there is probably only 5 months of Irvine supply. This is more at work than simple seasonality. There weren't prices increase during these same months in 2008 and 2007...</blockquote>
Oh no, will that mean I'll be priced out again because we are off to the races again? haha It's more then seasonality...it's ultra low mortgage rates coupled with a propped up stock market. Let's see what happens when the stock market heads back south and rates turn up north.
 
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