Woodbury East Opening July 11, 2009

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Interesting...i did not expect Irvine to have this level of pent up demand. A tepid demand would have helped reduce the over all prices.



[quote author="kayochan" date=1247361957]Just drove to WBE to see if I could take a quick look at the models. No parking (cars either waiting around for an open spot or just driving around where they can ... tight with cars parked on both side of the street). Decided wasn't worth waiting for an open parking spot...also figured that the models would be crowded as well.</blockquote>
 
Hi all,



Just thought you might want to know that all 13 townhomes in the first phase sold out within minutes after the sales office opened at 10 a.m. Apparently, prequalified buyers were lined up hours before.



Here is my post at the Irvine Homes blog:

<a href="http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/07/11/woodbury-east-opens-to-crowds-quick-sales/">http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/07/11/woodbury-east-opens-to-crowds-quick-sales/</a>



Color me surprised...it was like stepping back into a pre-bubble timewarp.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1247377197]Plan A priced from $349,990

Plan B priced from $389,990

Plan C priced from $427,990

Plan D priced from $422,990



With Ivy prices at $275 ppsf, Would it have an immediate impact on prices for all the other tracts in Woodbury? I am wondering if the prices for the new detached 1750 - 2700 homes in the fall comes into the market at $275ppsf, if that would immediately bring the Portisol and Villa Rosa tracts ppsf prices down to the $275-$300 range?



Just curious.



I recently saw a 1900 square feet Portisol tract on Watersprout sell within a week at $330 per square foot.</blockquote>
It definitely won't help all those folks who are asking $350+/sf for attached condos in Woodbury.
 
[quote author="Irvine Homes" date=1247380519]Hi all,



Just thought you might want to know that all 13 townhomes in the first phase sold out within minutes after the sales office opened at 10 a.m. Apparently, prequalified buyers were lined up hours before.



Here is my post at the Irvine Homes blog:

http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/07/11/woodbury-east-opens-to-crowds-quick-sales/



Color me surprised...it was like stepping back into a pre-bubble timewarp.</blockquote>
Based upon those facts, I can almost guarantee that they will be increasing prices in each subsequent phase until they meet max pain for most buyers. They probably could have priced these things are $300/sf and they still would have sold out in hours. The sheeple either aren't good at math or don't mind forking over $640/month for HOA and Hello Roos on small attached condos. $640/month translates to over $100,000 in capitalized cost or another $70-$80/sf.
 
With all of the buyers holding off for the last few years, I'm sure there will be some who can't wait anymore. I know a lot of my friends are the same way, just waiting, and waiting, until they can't possibly wait anymore. Someone tells me that most listings in irvine are getting full price (or above) so I'm not surprised if these sell, esp. in the <$400k range.



Whats interesting to find out is which way these homes go in terms of pricing (after the first phase). $3k a month principal, interest, association, mello roose isn't all that bad. since a comparable apartment is not much lower. Count the tax deductions + tax credit and you're at about the level of an IAC apartment.



Seems that these starter homes can satisfy the "housing itch" for at least a few years :)
 
[quote author="Irvine Homes" date=1247380519]Hi all,



Just thought you might want to know that all 13 townhomes in the first phase sold out within minutes after the sales office opened at 10 a.m. Apparently, prequalified buyers were lined up hours before.



Here is my post at the Irvine Homes blog:

<a href="http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/07/11/woodbury-east-opens-to-crowds-quick-sales/">http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/07/11/woodbury-east-opens-to-crowds-quick-sales/</a>



Color me surprised...it was like stepping back into a pre-bubble timewarp.</blockquote>


Sounds like 2005 all over again. (Oops, sorry. I should have read the article first). The reporter/writer said the same quote.
 
[quote author="Irvine Homes" date=1247380519]Hi all,



Just thought you might want to know that all 13 townhomes in the first phase sold out within minutes after the sales office opened at 10 a.m. Apparently, prequalified buyers were lined up hours before.



Here is my post at the Irvine Homes blog:

<a href="http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/07/11/woodbury-east-opens-to-crowds-quick-sales/">http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/07/11/woodbury-east-opens-to-crowds-quick-sales/</a>



Color me surprised...it was like stepping back into a pre-bubble timewarp.</blockquote>


The psychological effect of the event cannot be underestimated. What about the talk that prices are still way too high and many people cannot afford to buy homes in Irvine? Yeah, if there were 50 homes available, it probably will be sold out before they close business today. And in fact, they won't be stupid, the next phase will see at least $300/sf. Perhaps the bottom is closer than most people on this blog think.
 
[quote author="Look4house" date=1247385684][quote author="Irvine Homes" date=1247380519]Hi all,



Just thought you might want to know that all 13 townhomes in the first phase sold out within minutes after the sales office opened at 10 a.m. Apparently, prequalified buyers were lined up hours before.



Here is my post at the Irvine Homes blog:

<a href="http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/07/11/woodbury-east-opens-to-crowds-quick-sales/">http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/07/11/woodbury-east-opens-to-crowds-quick-sales/</a>



Color me surprised...it was like stepping back into a pre-bubble timewarp.</blockquote>


The psychological effect of the event cannot be underestimate. What about the talk that prices are still way too high and many people cannot afford to buy homes in Irvine? Yeah, if there were 50 homes available, it probably will be sold out before they close business today. And in fact, they won't be stupid, the next phase will see at least $300/sf. Perhaps the bottom is closer than most people on this blog think.</blockquote>


We'll have to wait a couple more phases to see which direction(s) the pricing will take. But with the first phase sold out like this. It's unlikely, the builder will make any reductions. This will be interesting.
 
[quote author="Look4house" date=1247385684][quote author="Irvine Homes" date=1247380519]Hi all,



Just thought you might want to know that all 13 townhomes in the first phase sold out within minutes after the sales office opened at 10 a.m. Apparently, prequalified buyers were lined up hours before.



Here is my post at the Irvine Homes blog:

<a href="http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/07/11/woodbury-east-opens-to-crowds-quick-sales/">http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/07/11/woodbury-east-opens-to-crowds-quick-sales/</a>



Color me surprised...it was like stepping back into a pre-bubble timewarp.</blockquote>


The psychological effect of the event cannot be underestimated. What about the talk that prices are still way too high and many people cannot afford to buy homes in Irvine? Yeah, if there were 50 homes available, it probably will be sold out before they close business today. And in fact, they won't be stupid, the next phase will see at least $300/sf. Perhaps the bottom is closer than most people on this blog think.</blockquote>


You better buy now or be priced out forever ;-) Yeah right...we are no where near bottom yet. The REO pipeline is full and Mr Pain is still on his way to Irvine.
 
[quote author="Look4house" date=1247385684][quote author="Irvine Homes" date=1247380519]Hi all,



Just thought you might want to know that all 13 townhomes in the first phase sold out within minutes after the sales office opened at 10 a.m. Apparently, prequalified buyers were lined up hours before.



Here is my post at the Irvine Homes blog:

<a href="http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/07/11/woodbury-east-opens-to-crowds-quick-sales/">http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/07/11/woodbury-east-opens-to-crowds-quick-sales/</a>



Color me surprised...it was like stepping back into a pre-bubble timewarp.</blockquote>


The psychological effect of the event cannot be underestimated. What about the talk that prices are still way too high and many people cannot afford to buy homes in Irvine? Yeah, if there were 50 homes available, it probably will be sold out before they close business today. And in fact, they won't be stupid, the next phase will see at least $300/sf. Perhaps the bottom is closer than most people on this blog think.</blockquote>


Don't let us bears wear you down. We have been bearish for 2 and 1/2 years now (and right); few of us see much reason to change.
 
I think it might be some negative impact on the housing price in Irvine. Lot of places sell for over $300-350 / SF with 10-30 older than Woodberry East. I think the individul owner/seller might lower their sales price or at least get out of the denial.



[quote author="reason" date=1247386332][quote author="Look4house" date=1247385684][quote author="Irvine Homes" date=1247380519]Hi all,



Just thought you might want to know that all 13 townhomes in the first phase sold out within minutes after the sales office opened at 10 a.m. Apparently, prequalified buyers were lined up hours before.



Here is my post at the Irvine Homes blog:

<a href="http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/07/11/woodbury-east-opens-to-crowds-quick-sales/">http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/07/11/woodbury-east-opens-to-crowds-quick-sales/</a>



Color me surprised...it was like stepping back into a pre-bubble timewarp.</blockquote>


The psychological effect of the event cannot be underestimate. What about the talk that prices are still way too high and many people cannot afford to buy homes in Irvine? Yeah, if there were 50 homes available, it probably will be sold out before they close business today. And in fact, they won't be stupid, the next phase will see at least $300/sf. Perhaps the bottom is closer than most people on this blog think.</blockquote>


We'll have to wait a couple more phases to see which direction(s) the pricing will take. But with the first phase sold out like this. It's unlikely, the builder will make any reductions. This will be interesting.</blockquote>
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1247393846]

Don't let us bears wear you down. We have been bearish for 2 and 1/2 years now (and right); few of us see much reason to change.</blockquote>


IrvineRenter is even providing advertisement for Woodbury Easy, at least he get to make some money out of all these knife catchers :)



<img src="http://i25.tinypic.com/33nf6zb.jpg" alt="" />



G
 
[quote author="Gemini" date=1247408467][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1247393846]

Don't let us bears wear you down. We have been bearish for 2 and 1/2 years now (and right); few of us see much reason to change.</blockquote>


IrvineRenter is even providing advertisement for Woodbury Easy, at least he get to make some money out of all these knife catchers :)



<img src="http://i25.tinypic.com/33nf6zb.jpg" alt="" />



G</blockquote>


What the?...I didn't even notice that. Nice catch. Hahaha!
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1247393846][quote author="Look4house" date=1247385684][quote author="Irvine Homes" date=1247380519]Hi all,



Just thought you might want to know that all 13 townhomes in the first phase sold out within minutes after the sales office opened at 10 a.m. Apparently, prequalified buyers were lined up hours before.



Here is my post at the Irvine Homes blog:

<a href="http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/07/11/woodbury-east-opens-to-crowds-quick-sales/">http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/07/11/woodbury-east-opens-to-crowds-quick-sales/</a>



Color me surprised...it was like stepping back into a pre-bubble timewarp.</blockquote>


The psychological effect of the event cannot be underestimated. What about the talk that prices are still way too high and many people cannot afford to buy homes in Irvine? Yeah, if there were 50 homes available, it probably will be sold out before they close business today. And in fact, they won't be stupid, the next phase will see at least $300/sf. Perhaps the bottom is closer than most people on this blog think.</blockquote>


Don't let us bears wear you down. We have been bearish for 2 and 1/2 years now (and right); few of us see much reason to change.</blockquote>


Sorry Look4House...didn't mean to trample over your post. As much as I believe the market in Irvine will tank further, I do appreciate diversity of view points. On a per sq ft basis on first look it appears cheaper than re-sale but if you add in the special assessments/fees it doesn't look that cheap after all. I think the low price for new product is attracting folks hungry for something new. Time will tell if the developers get greedy and try to raise the prices despite pressure from future REO activity.
 
Judging from the byline, when was this article written? Does it sound familiar? Does this signal a bottom, or is it false hope?

<blockquote>

<em>The Orange County Register



Believe it or not, Orange County home sales have been hot this summer.



The formula for the sales surge is simple: Low interest rates, bargain home prices and motivated home sellers have lured buyers back into the market. So much so that August was the busiest sales month in two years.



Overall, home sales were up 12 percent from last summer, according to La Jolla-based Dataquick Information Systems. And single-family resales, the largest segment of the market, were up 21 percent.</em></blockquote>


A history lesson is in the works my IHBers, a history lesson that is panning out to be repeating itself exactly as history tells us it did.



They just keep making it with a higher density...



<blockquote><em>The Orange County Register



You don't need a riding mower to cut the lawn. Heck. A good pair of scissors may do.



But at least you've got a yard and four walls to yourself. And Orange County homebuilders are bringing it to you for about the price of a condominium. The catch is that these single-family homes are on pint-sized lots lined 10 to the acre _ nearly double the density of traditional single-family-home projects.



It's the American Dream albeit a miniaturized version.</em></blockquote>


Wash, rinse, and repeat.
 
[quote author="reason" date=1247386332][quote author="Look4house" date=1247385684][quote author="Irvine Homes" date=1247380519]Hi all,



Just thought you might want to know that all 13 townhomes in the first phase sold out within minutes after the sales office opened at 10 a.m. Apparently, prequalified buyers were lined up hours before.



Here is my post at the Irvine Homes blog:

<a href="http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/07/11/woodbury-east-opens-to-crowds-quick-sales/">http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/07/11/woodbury-east-opens-to-crowds-quick-sales/</a>



Color me surprised...it was like stepping back into a pre-bubble timewarp.</blockquote>


The psychological effect of the event cannot be underestimate. What about the talk that prices are still way too high and many people cannot afford to buy homes in Irvine? Yeah, if there were 50 homes available, it probably will be sold out before they close business today. And in fact, they won't be stupid, the next phase will see at least $300/sf. Perhaps the bottom is closer than most people on this blog think.</blockquote>


We'll have to wait a couple more phases to see which direction(s) the pricing will take. But with the first phase sold out like this. It's unlikely, the builder will make any reductions. This will be interesting.</blockquote>


We won't know in 2 weeks, 2 months, but in 2-4 years. That's when we'll know what the bottom has been.



Prices could be a little higher in the short-term, but that doesn't mean we hit the bottom. You'll only see the bottom in you reaview mirror.



We're still going downhill in my book.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1247381769][quote author="Irvine Homes" date=1247380519]Hi all,



Just thought you might want to know that all 13 townhomes in the first phase sold out within minutes after the sales office opened at 10 a.m. Apparently, prequalified buyers were lined up hours before.



Here is my post at the Irvine Homes blog:

http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/07/11/woodbury-east-opens-to-crowds-quick-sales/



Color me surprised...it was like stepping back into a pre-bubble timewarp.</blockquote>
Based upon those facts, I can almost guarantee that they will be increasing prices in each subsequent phase until they meet max pain for most buyers. They probably could have priced these things are $300/sf and they still would have sold out in hours. The sheeple either aren't good at math or don't mind forking over $640/month for HOA and Hello Roos on small attached condos. $640/month translates to over $100,000 in capitalized cost or another $70-$80/sf.</blockquote>


Keep in mind that alternatives (Portola, Woodbury, etc.) for these newer condos all have high HOA and Mello Roos. You have to buy something build more than 5 years ago, to see lower fees.
 
Just echoing the previous posts - it was like a zoo on opening day. My friend went around 9:30 before opening as well and it was already a zoo. Word on the street is that total taxes will come out to just under 2%. Not surprised that there were this many people - but my hope is that at least this will drive prices for those in Irvine down. Too many of these sellers are still living in fantasyland, wanting $350/sq ft.
 
Just because they sold out does not mean that much. Give it a week or so and some bad economic news like the stocks crash and you can see a lot of cans on your hands.They still have to qualify and close these homes. And with the new changes in appraisals my guess is they are going to have some big problems when they try to close these homes. One problem would be is the builder and the Irvine company which sets the prices and has profit participation. will they take the lower appraisals to close the homes and if there is upgrades added to the price will the builder and the Irvine eat those upgrades on top of it. So now if they release a second and third phase with higher prices and the people in escrow find out the 1st phase has closed for lower prices because of appraisal issues you know that they will want the same deal or cancel. Now ultimately they could wait it out and see if there appraisal comes in just as low but most people may feel duped and just cancel anyhow. Add to that if prices continue to plunge which PMI thinks there is 99.9% chance it will till 2011 in Orange County i think this is going to be a tract of knife catchers and future foreclosures as the tract starts lowering prices and taking low ball offers to sell standing inventory. Luckily there is only 50 some odd units so it should be a short tract but still it could get real nasty. I would like to the cancellation rate on this tract because i believe it is still overpriced considering the taxes and the HOA there are far better deals out there.
 
I'm surprised the second model sold (I think plan A). It didn't seem like it would be BK approved with the stairs going out the door and the bedroom on the first floor feeling like living in a basement.
 
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