Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases

[qwerty]

You have to move on. What is the point of dwelling over test, trace contain?

We need to deal with the present and future. Yes, testing, contain would have helped to potentially slow the spread. But it still would have spread. There is only so much testing, tracing and containing that can be done.

Now it?s time to figure out the best path going forward

Qwerty do you work in PR? That was expert level sleight of hand, swapping out the loss of trillions of dollars and thousands of lives with ?testing, contain would have helped to potentially slow the spread?

If you were the spokesperson for the White house, less people would be less mad at President Trump 

Sometimes I wish I worked in PR

 

[eyephone]

You have to move on. What is the point of dwelling over test, trace contain?

We need to deal with the present and future. Yes, testing, contain would have helped to potentially slow the spread. But it still would have spread. There is only so much testing, tracing and containing that can be done.

Now it?s time to figure out the best path going forward

Qwerty do you work in PR? That was expert level sleight of hand, swapping out the loss of trillions of dollars and thousands of lives with ?testing, contain would have helped to potentially slow the spread?

If you were the spokesperson for the White house, less people would be less mad at President Trump 

Sometimes I wish I worked in PR

PR = Puerto Rico jk
I know your talking about Public Relations

 

[nosuchreality]

Wasn't PR the destination of choice for the financial preppers before sh*t got real there before the hurricane? Typing of which, isn't it still AFU from that same hurricane?

I wonder how those tax avoiding financial prepper-savants are doing that went?

 

[Liar Loan]

So who won this morbid contest?

 

[eyephone]

So who won this morbid contest?

Trump and the GOP is losing big time. People are fed up. It seems the mid to old people will be thrown under the bus.
Senior lives matter!

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Here is the wisdom of the chattering class...Neil Furgeson at the Imperial College started the panic ball rolling with a 500,000 dead prediction...soon they dropped it to a more reasonable 20,000 but now think maybe only 5700... exponential regression at its best.

Coronavirus death toll could be 'just' 5,700

Modelling by the epidemiologist Neil Ferguson - also from Imperial College - last week predicted that  coronavirus  could lead to more than half a million deaths in the UK if left unchecked, and 260,000 with social distancing measures.

The paper from Imperial College, London, says that 5,700 people will die in Britain if the disease follows the same pattern as China now lockdown measures are in place.

This follows the government's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance's grim assertion that 20,000 deaths in the UK would represent a "good outcome"
[url]https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-death-toll-could-just-21769975[/url]

Over 30k in the UK, passing Italy and the 5700 mark. It's not 500k or 260k but it's past the 20k "good outcome".

160,000

At this rate I'll be upping my prediction every few days until the end of the month, where the reality of over 250,000 dead will be hitting all of us very hard.

The more I think about it, the more I am convinced that typical mathematical growth models will always underestimate the growth #s early on because they cannot take into account the growth of the spread.

Over 265k worldwide.

US may hit over 80k... so worse than the top end of this poll.

 

[daedalus]

I don't see how we won't hit 80k, or 100k, or even 200k...eventually, absent a good treatment, a cure or a vaccine.  I'm not yet ready to buy the suggestion that 10% of the country has already contracted it.  The media has been far too anxious to print bullshit clickbait headlines of all flavors throughout all this, and it has been frustrating, to say the least.

The lockdown had a huge impact.  Without it, we would have been well north of 100k at the end of April.  Up until the last week of March we were compounding at ~20% per day before the lagging effects of the shut downs kicked in.  Now we are growing at ~3% per day. 

We probably won't go back to >20% daily compounding no matter what.  Peoples' behaviors have changed too much.  But we won't stay at 3% either if we're out and about and mingling with others. 

My wife and I have been asked when we would like to send our daughter back to daycare.  We're honestly not sure what our answer is yet.  Mid May?  June?  Never?

 

[nosuchreality]

Our current run rate seems to be just north of 12000/week with the trend bending back up.  That should put us over 100,000 by May 21st, over 110K by Memorial Day.  Those deaths are probably already in the pipe, with the people just getting this week or previously. 

Going into June, how much does the daily rate fall?  Does it fall?  If it doesn't we're at 200K for 4th of July.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

One thing I am hopeful for is that with advanced treatment and enough beds/vents/personnel that many of the deaths can be avoided.

#qwertyingtheherd

 

[eyephone]

One thing I am hopeful for is that with advanced treatment and enough beds/vents/personnel that many of the deaths can be avoided.

#qwertyingtheherd

That is the reason why consumer confidence is low. Because they do not want to be hooked up to a ventilator, loose their taste and smell, have a stroke, some cases have their leg cut off when they are in a coma.

#stayhome
#zombienotforme

 

[irvinehomeowner]

One thing I am hopeful for is that with advanced treatment and enough beds/vents/personnel that many of the deaths can be avoided.

#qwertyingtheherd

I thought you said it was like a cough or a flu.

That wasn't me.

Stop being so confrontational... you're even fighting with qwerty.

 

[eyephone]

One thing I am hopeful for is that with advanced treatment and enough beds/vents/personnel that many of the deaths can be avoided.

#qwertyingtheherd

I thought you said it was like a cough or a flu.

That wasn't me.

Stop being so confrontational... you're even fighting with qwerty.

Me and you had a big discussion whether this is just seasonal and that this was even lighter than a flu. (Dog bite vs shark bite)

Sorry if people are going to spread fake/false information. I have to say something. (not relating to you) For example one guy posted an article that it will be only 5k deaths in US and that Russia was not having a problem. [we all know that is not true]

So in the country of Vietnam there is a big fine for spreading false info about covid.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

One thing I am hopeful for is that with advanced treatment and enough beds/vents/personnel that many of the deaths can be avoided.

#qwertyingtheherd

I thought you said it was like a cough or a flu.

That wasn't me.

Stop being so confrontational... you're even fighting with qwerty.

Me and you had a big discussion whether this is just seasonal and that this was even lighter than a flu. (Dog bite vs shark bite)

Sorry if people are going to spread fake/false information. I have to say something. (not relating to you) For example one guy posted an article that it will be only 5k deaths in US and that Russia was not having a problem. [we all know that is not true]

So in the country of Vietnam there is a big fine for spreading false info about covid.

Please re-read that discussion. I did not say it was like a cough... nor did I say it was lighter than the flu.

You are mixing up your enemies and posting false/fake info about me.

 

[eyephone]

One thing I am hopeful for is that with advanced treatment and enough beds/vents/personnel that many of the deaths can be avoided.

#qwertyingtheherd

I thought you said it was like a cough or a flu.

That wasn't me.

Stop being so confrontational... you're even fighting with qwerty.

Me and you had a big discussion whether this is just seasonal and that this was even lighter than a flu. (Dog bite vs shark bite)

Sorry if people are going to spread fake/false information. I have to say something. (not relating to you) For example one guy posted an article that it will be only 5k deaths in US and that Russia was not having a problem. [we all know that is not true]

So in the country of Vietnam there is a big fine for spreading false info about covid.

Please re-read that discussion. I did not say it was like a cough... nor did I say it was lighter than the flu.

You are mixing up your enemies and posting false/fake info about me.

You were comparing it to a flu at first.
Sorry I do not promote fake political protests with Hitler signs and attacks against Jewish people. (work will set you free - a slogan from concentration camps)

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I am pro-lockdown... why would I be if I thought it was just a cough?

 

[eyephone]

I am pro-lockdown... why would I be if I thought it was just a cough?

Actually Trump said it was just a cough at first. But you and others were saying it is lighter than a flu.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I am pro-lockdown... why would I be if I thought it was just a cough?

Actually Trump said it was just a cough at first. But you and others were saying it is lighter than a flu.

False again.

Quote the post where I said it was "lighter than a flu".

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Lets try a new poll for June:
https://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,17309.0.html