Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases

What is your estimate for COVID-19 deaths in USA as of 30-APRIL-2020?

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Going with 10k-20k range.  Call me an optimist.  Doesn't matter, if we get lower numbers than predicted, some people will claim "I told you it's just the flu!" and the others will say "It's because we shutdown!"

Would be helpful if we had a rapid reliable IgM/IgG test so that exposed people (asymptomatic or mild case) could get back to work while we quarantine the unexposed.
 
Wadda ya know?....

Nobel Prize-winning scientist claims coronavirus outbreaks in New York and Italy are finally SLOWING

Professor Michael Levitt said Italy and New York have 'turned a corner'
He said both had passed the period of fastest growth of their outbreaks
Numbers in the UK are too low to say what stage the country is at in its outbreak
Professor Levitt correctly predicted how China's epidemic would come to an end

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8167773/Nobel-Prize-winning-scientist-claims-coronavirus-outbreaks-New-York-Italy-finally-SLOWING.html
 
Maserson said:
Going with 10k-20k range.  Call me an optimist.  Doesn't matter, if we get lower numbers than predicted, some people will claim "I told you it's just the flu!" and the others will say "It's because we shutdown!"

Would be helpful if we had a rapid reliable IgM/IgG test so that exposed people (asymptomatic or mild case) could get back to work while we quarantine the unexposed.
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I like Peter Hitchens analogy as to how the blame game will go down if the death rates don't skyrocket soon...

As things stand, the Johnson Government is like a doctor, confronted with a patient suffering from pneumonia. ?This is serious,? says the doctor. ?I have never seen anything like this. Unless I act radically, you will die terribly.?

He then proposes to treat the pneumonia by amputating the patient?s left leg, saying this method has been used successfully in China. The trusting patient agrees. The patient eventually recovers from pneumonia, as he would have done anyway. The doctor proclaims that his treatment, though undoubtedly painful and radical, was a great success. But the patient now has only one leg, and a very large hospital bill which he cannot afford to pay.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html
 
So what's the magic number that justifies a shutdown?  20k?  100k?  1 million dead?

I'm all for getting people back to work and restarting the economy but you know it comes with additional deaths. What number of deaths justifies that?

I see several people continuing to push for lifting of restrictions, for a good reason, but again, what number of deaths would make you change your mind?
 
Maserson said:
So what's the magic number that justifies a shutdown?  20k?  100k?  1 million dead?

I'm all for getting people back to work and restarting the economy but you know it comes with additional deaths. What number of deaths justifies that?

I see several people continuing to push for lifting of restrictions, for a good reason, but again, what number of deaths would make you change your mind?
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How many ruined lives, closed business and economic damage are acceptable to continue to shut down the country?
What?s worse an  economic depression that affect 300m plus people or say 500,000 deaths?

At some point people are going to start to use those guns they have been buying and it becomes the Wild West.

I think you can do this for 2-3 months but at some point people will not start to liem the alternative.

We don?t stop selling beer even though almost 40,000 people are killed every year by drunk drivers.

We don?t stop selling cars even though 2 million people per year are permanently injured in car accidents.

At some point we all mask up and glove olio and go back to work while they try to find a vaccine/treatment.
 
From the dawn of humanity to the present, there has been one foundational concept that underpins all human societies and activities:

LIFE IS PRECIOUS BUT IT IS NOT PRICELESS.
 
Happiness said:
From the dawn of humanity to the present, there has been one foundational concept that underpins all human societies and activities:

LIFE IS PRECIOUS BUT IT IS NOT PRICELESS.
Click to expand...

Let me guess you watch or read info wars.
 
Maserson said:
Totally agree. But I'm still asking the same question: what number of deaths changes your mind? 

I like Germany's idea:https://www.yahoo.com/news/germany-could-issue-hundreds-thousands-114500027.html
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Like i said in another thread...if we don't zoom up to the tens of thousands soon then the number is the low thousands....maybe sooner than many suspect...

morekaos said:
Each of us makes a cost/ benefit analysis each time we walk out the door in the morning, wether you know it or not.  Will I get hit by a car? will I slip in the bathtub? will I be poisoned by my lunch today? Soon, very soon, we will collectively make a decision as to how many fatalities are acceptable in order to get back to work...I think that number is sub 10-15000.... we will see where it lands.
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To fight the virus battle.
A lot of top countries are using AI/infrared technology. I think US is doing a little bit. Also, they are checking temperatures. US is doing minimal.

We are losing. How can we go back to work, Jack?
Where are the masks and ventilators? I hear a lot of talk, but no action.
All companies need to be on board.
 
Wake up and smell the coffee or shall I say cooked bacon. Things need to change. People should be outraged about this!
I thought Katrina was bad, but this is like so bad. Really really bad.
 
eyephone said:
Happiness said:
From the dawn of humanity to the present, there has been one foundational concept that underpins all human societies and activities:

LIFE IS PRECIOUS BUT IT IS NOT PRICELESS.
Click to expand...

Let me guess you watch or read info wars.
Click to expand...

Or listened and follows Medal of Freedom winner Rush Limbo and tells people to relax it?s just a flu. It will go away wealllyy soon. It?s all under control. Oh, that sounds like our President Trump.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
morekaos said:
Here is the wisdom of the chattering class...Neil Furgeson at the Imperial College started the panic ball rolling with a 500,000 dead prediction...soon they dropped it to a more reasonable 20,000 but now think maybe only 5700... exponential regression at its best.

Coronavirus death toll could be 'just' 5,700

Modelling by the epidemiologist Neil Ferguson - also from Imperial College - last week predicted that  coronavirus  could lead to more than half a million deaths in the UK if left unchecked, and 260,000 with social distancing measures.

The paper from Imperial College, London, says that 5,700 people will die in Britain if the disease follows the same pattern as China now lockdown measures are in place.

This follows the government's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance's grim assertion that 20,000 deaths in the UK would represent a "good outcome"
[url]https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-death-toll-could-just-21769975[/url]
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I mentioned this in my Math thread.

Just to present both sides, I think Neil's first estimate was the extreme, if there weren't any lockdowns, his new ones are taking into account the measures the UK have implemented.
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The paper actually listed three basic scenarios:  no actions taken, social distancing only, or complete lockdown.  I think that has created a lot of confusion because the media and politicians only quoted the worst case scenario when justifying their decisions to restrict activity.  Now that various amounts of lockdown are occurring in both countries, GB and US, he is being accused of modifying his predictions when all he is doing is saying we are track for X numbers of deaths based on the precautions we are taking now.  The paper had a range for GB of 5,600 deaths up to 550,000 based on multiple inputs. There are 80 different sub-scenarios modeled out.

EDIT: I originally said 20 sub-scenarios, but it's actually 80.
 
Compressed-Village said:
eyephone said:
Happiness said:
From the dawn of humanity to the present, there has been one foundational concept that underpins all human societies and activities:

LIFE IS PRECIOUS BUT IT IS NOT PRICELESS.
Click to expand...

Let me guess you watch or read info wars.
Click to expand...

Or listened and follows Medal of Freedom winner Rush Limbo and tells people to relax it?s just a flu. It will go away wealllyy soon. It?s all under control. Oh, that sounds like our President Trump.
Click to expand...

Haha: they are moving the goal post
1. It was a hoax
2. It was just a cough
3. Don?t worry it is like a flu
4. Now look at the death numbers not high (yet)
 
eyephone said:
To fight the virus battle.
A lot of top countries are using AI/infrared technology. I think US is doing a little bit. Also, they are checking temperatures. US is doing minimal.

We are losing. How can we go back to work, Jack?
Where are the masks and ventilators? I hear a lot of talk, but no action.
All companies need to be on board.
Click to expand...

We are losing and we all know it.
 
Daily Death numbers yesterday fell nationally and in NY.  Lets hope that might continue.
 

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