Where are we headed?Irvine home prices?

[usctrojancpa]

Why buy a house now when you potentially can buy it cheaper?

I have friends that thought this way after the huge run-up in 2013-14. Now they wish they had bought in 2013...

I tried to time the stock market and missed out on huge gains. I've done very sell in life accidentally timing things (selling stocks because I needed the cash, buying a home because of a growing family), but done pretty badly when trying to time the top of markets.

Yup, you can't time the market...whether it's the real estate market, bond market, or stock market.  One thing is for sure, if you buy a home in Irvine today it will be worth more in 7-10+ years than it is today.  Homes are places to live and raise your family first and foremost.  The market will do what it wants to do regardless of what anyone wants it to do or thinks what it should do.

 

[eyephone]

Why buy a house now when you potentially can buy it cheaper?

I have friends that thought this way after the huge run-up in 2013-14. Now they wish they had bought in 2013...

I tried to time the stock market and missed out on huge gains. I've done very sell in life accidentally timing things (selling stocks because I needed the cash, buying a home because of a growing family), but done pretty badly when trying to time the top of markets.

Yup, you can't time the market...whether it's the real estate market, bond market, or stock market.  One thing is for sure, if you buy a home in Irvine today it will be worth more in 7-10+ years than it is today.  Homes are places to live and raise your family first and foremost.  The market will do what it wants to do regardless of what anyone wants it to do or thinks what it should do.

I disagree. There was a time when private equity bought boat loads of foreclosures or low priced homes. That was a flashing sign to buy with a lot of upside. I can say the same thing with oil prices.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Why buy a house now when you potentially can buy it cheaper?

I have friends that thought this way after the huge run-up in 2013-14. Now they wish they had bought in 2013...

I tried to time the stock market and missed out on huge gains. I've done very sell in life accidentally timing things (selling stocks because I needed the cash, buying a home because of a growing family), but done pretty badly when trying to time the top of markets.

Yup, you can't time the market...whether it's the real estate market, bond market, or stock market.  One thing is for sure, if you buy a home in Irvine today it will be worth more in 7-10+ years than it is today.  Homes are places to live and raise your family first and foremost.  The market will do what it wants to do regardless of what anyone wants it to do or thinks what it should do.

I disagree. There was a time when private equity bought boat loads of foreclosures or low priced homes. That was a flashing sign to buy with a lot of upside. I can say the same thing with oil prices.

I think the recent real estate turmoil is pretty unique....probably something that happens every 50 or 100 years.

 

[fortune11]

Why buy a house now when you potentially can buy it cheaper?

I have friends that thought this way after the huge run-up in 2013-14. Now they wish they had bought in 2013...

I tried to time the stock market and missed out on huge gains. I've done very sell in life accidentally timing things (selling stocks because I needed the cash, buying a home because of a growing family), but done pretty badly when trying to time the top of markets.

Yup, you can't time the market...whether it's the real estate market, bond market, or stock market.  One thing is for sure, if you buy a home in Irvine today it will be worth more in 7-10+ years than it is today.  Homes are places to live and raise your family first and foremost.  The market will do what it wants to do regardless of what anyone wants it to do or thinks what it should do.

I disagree. There was a time when private equity bought boat loads of foreclosures or low priced homes. That was a flashing sign to buy with a lot of upside. I can say the same thing with oil prices.

I think the distinction between Irvine home prices and all home prices is important to make.  Even if a recession comes, Irvine or Irvine home prices wont be the center of it.  For example, just look at Broadcom (our local employer) - despite layoffs and what not, their stock has tripled in the last 4 years.  how many of their employees were able to afford a better home as a result ?  similar story in many other healthcare and biotech firms.  the local economy is very well diversified

 

[sgip]

So you buy, and values drop:

1) Are you moving anytime soon?

2) Could you rent out the home?

3) Do prices fall as if into a bottomless pit? Do prices rise forever?

No one like to "lose" money/equity, but as noted by others, you cannot time the market. When a yuuge bigly purchase like a home is made, it should be done looking at the positive and negative side of the ledger, but not so much so that it creates "analysis paralysis".

A parallel example: If the married folks on this board did a cost/benefit/ROI analysis on their spouses before committing, none of us would be married today. I would be a far different person had I looked only at the numbers and said "pass" 20 plus years ago.  Thankfully the right choice was made! What I'm driving towards is that risk is everywhere, preparing for it is wise, but being ruled by it....? Not so much.  Should someone be uncomfortable buying a home today, not buying is the right choice, even if values were to pop higher by 20%. If someone is willing to take the risk in the face of an uncertain future, that also is the right choice IMHO.

My .02c

 

[Cares]

A parallel example: If the married folks on this board did a cost/benefit/ROI analysis on their spouses before committing, none of us would be married today. I would be a far different person had I looked only at the numbers and said "pass" 20 plus years ago.

Does your spouse browse these forums?  ;D

 

[ThirtySomethingWEquity]

Why buy a house now when you potentially can buy it cheaper?

If you own a house, because that means your current house drops in value too.

But of course.

So you agree it doesn't matter when you buy a house if you already own property, right?

Now as for your other comments, talk is cheap. Show me your short positions and it will strengthen your argument. 

 

[sgip]

Cares - No, but I try and write as if someone is watching over me (work/spouse/friends, etc)

 

[eyephone]

@30: I bought a foreclosure home, and I bought another property a few years after that in 2014.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

A parallel example: If the married folks on this board did a cost/benefit/ROI analysis on their spouses before committing, none of us would be married today. I would be a far different person had I looked only at the numbers and said "pass" 20 plus years ago.

Does your spouse browse these forums?  ;D

Soylent is a honorable man. Soylent Red should have no doubt or fear.  , there is a reason why he locked in the last 20 years. There will be 20 +more years of no regret I bet.  Congrat.

Back to the topic, as much as I want a bargain to happen with Irvine homes price, there are literally a few hundreds  other ahead of me. Soooooo, it will be a very far reach for my wishes. For those that can afford to buy but wait, timing the market this time may not workout. Too much cash still siting on the side line ready to pounce if anything.

 

[eyephone]

@30: Talk is not cheap. Do you think tarriffs helps the economy?  (Yes or no)

 

[Mety]

Did anyone here prophesy the last crash?
I mean, anyone really got the timing and all the details dead on?
Please raise your hand if you did. We might listen to you more seriously.

 

[the.irvine]

The median home value in 92618 is $821,300. 92618 home values have gone up 4.8% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 9.9% within the next year. The median list price per square foot in 92618 is $480, which is lower than the Irvine average of $494. The median price of homes currently listed in 92618 is $1,098,000 while the median price of homes that sold is $842,400. The median rent price in 92618 is $3,550, which is higher than the Irvine median of $3,400.

Foreclosures will be a factor impacting home values in the next several years. In 92618 1.1 homes are foreclosed (per 10,000). This is greater than the Irvine value of 0.5 and also lower than the national value of 1.6

Mortgage delinquency is the first step in the foreclosure process. This is when a homeowner fails to make a mortgage payment. The percent of delinquent mortgages in 92618 is 0.4%, which is lower than the national value of 1.6%. With U.S. home values having fallen by more than 20% nationally from their peak in 2007 until their trough in late 2011, many homeowners are now underwater on their mortgages, meaning they owe more than their home is worth. The percent of 92618 homeowners underwater on their mortgage is 8.7%, which is higher than Irvine at 5.9%.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Did anyone here prophesy the last crash?
I mean, anyone really got the timing and all the details dead on?
Please raise your hand if you did. We might listen to you more seriously.

Not it.

Not even Larry.

This is why when eyephone says you can buy a house cheaper... it's not exactly true because of the timing issue.

 

[eyephone]

In a way it?s timing.
Housing, oil, bitcoin, etc.

 

[usctrojancpa]

In a way it?s timing.
Housing, oil, bitcoin, etc.

And that's the problem...no one can perfectly time any market. One of my friends has been waiting for the Irvine prices to pull back 10% back in 2013 so he could move up from his condo into a home. Unfortunately he is still waiting for that 10% pull back after prices have risen 15-20% since the 2013 price run-up.  I'm just glad that he listened to me and bought his condo back in 2011.

 

[eyephone]

Also add luck. 

 

[Mety]

eyphone, for those who are about to buy now, when do you suggest make an offer? In couple months? Next year?

 

[usctrojancpa]

Also add luck. 

Yes, luck is a big part of it.  Looking back on it, I perfectly timed the purchase of my West Irvine home at the end of 2011 at the lowest price of that floor plan (helped that it was a short sale) but that was more luck than perfect timing.

 

[Kings]

Also add luck. 

Yes, luck is a big part of it.  Looking back on it, I perfectly timed the purchase of my West Irvine home at the end of 2011 at the lowest price of that floor plan (helped that it was a short sale) but that was more luck than perfect timing.

"i'd rather be lucky than good"
- gandhi