Where are we headed?Irvine home prices?

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Lallo said:
I don?t think Chinese FCB will save irvine during the next downturn. From what I?m told from an agent who deals with these buyers, they are having a really tough time getting their money out of China.
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Not true, I see these cash buyers all the time. The cash is coming over in smaller chunks (<$50k) from different Chinese banks every week now versus in the past coming over in a big nut.  How do I know?  Because I get bank statements from these cash buyers on my listings.  Anyone who thinks that cash still isn't coming from China to the US is wrong.
 
shahshah said:
Also remember that the chinese are not the only buyers. there are buyers from other countries and other states in the US. Also if I was a chinese national and owned a house in Irvine and then started having trouble getting money or as quickly as before the last thing I would do is sell the Irvine asset I already had.
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Very true, many 1031 exchange cash buyers, Indian cash buyers, Persian cash buyers, white cash buyers, and other non-Chinese Asian cash buyers.  Fact is, money is still coming out of China and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Lallo said:
I don?t think Chinese FCB will save irvine during the next downturn. From what I?m told from an agent who deals with these buyers, they are having a really tough time getting their money out of China.
Click to expand...

Not true, I see these cash buyers all the time. The cash is coming over in smaller chunks (<$50k) from different Chinese banks every week now versus in the past coming over in a big nut.  How do I know?  Because I get bank statements from these cash buyers on my listings.  Anyone who thinks that cash still isn't coming from China to the US is wrong.
Click to expand...

FCBs are definitely still out there but the wave is largely over.  The remainder are not going to "save" a down market.
 
Irvinecommuter said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Lallo said:
I don?t think Chinese FCB will save irvine during the next downturn. From what I?m told from an agent who deals with these buyers, they are having a really tough time getting their money out of China.
Click to expand...

Not true, I see these cash buyers all the time. The cash is coming over in smaller chunks (<$50k) from different Chinese banks every week now versus in the past coming over in a big nut.  How do I know?  Because I get bank statements from these cash buyers on my listings.  Anyone who thinks that cash still isn't coming from China to the US is wrong.
Click to expand...

FCBs are definitely still out there but the wave is largely over.  The remainder are not going to "save" a down market.
Click to expand...

Who do you think are buying many of those Reserve, Altair, and Cadence new homes?  Has the FCB buying slowed down?  Maybe, but if so only on the margin. The majority of Irvine buyers are non-FCBs and there's still a lot of demand to live in Irvine from those buyers.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Irvinecommuter said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Lallo said:
I don?t think Chinese FCB will save irvine during the next downturn. From what I?m told from an agent who deals with these buyers, they are having a really tough time getting their money out of China.
Click to expand...

Not true, I see these cash buyers all the time. The cash is coming over in smaller chunks (<$50k) from different Chinese banks every week now versus in the past coming over in a big nut.  How do I know?  Because I get bank statements from these cash buyers on my listings.  Anyone who thinks that cash still isn't coming from China to the US is wrong.
Click to expand...

FCBs are definitely still out there but the wave is largely over.  The remainder are not going to "save" a down market.
Click to expand...

Who do you think are buying many of those Reserve, Altair, and Cadence new homes?  Has the FCB buying slowed down?  Maybe, but if so only on the margin. The majority of Irvine buyers are non-FCBs and there's still a lot of demand to live in Irvine from those buyers.
Click to expand...

Of course...you know I am pretty bullish about Irvine as a RE market.  FCB buyers are largely immune to the rise in interest rate that is likely to come in the next few years.  I think there may be one last rush to buy 2018-2019 before things settled down.   

Just stating that the Chinese FCB wave that pushed up the Irvine market in 2010-2012 is now nearing its end.
 
Irvinecommuter said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Irvinecommuter said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Lallo said:
I don?t think Chinese FCB will save irvine during the next downturn. From what I?m told from an agent who deals with these buyers, they are having a really tough time getting their money out of China.
Click to expand...

Not true, I see these cash buyers all the time. The cash is coming over in smaller chunks (<$50k) from different Chinese banks every week now versus in the past coming over in a big nut.  How do I know?  Because I get bank statements from these cash buyers on my listings.  Anyone who thinks that cash still isn't coming from China to the US is wrong.
Click to expand...

FCBs are definitely still out there but the wave is largely over.  The remainder are not going to "save" a down market.
Click to expand...

Who do you think are buying many of those Reserve, Altair, and Cadence new homes?  Has the FCB buying slowed down?  Maybe, but if so only on the margin. The majority of Irvine buyers are non-FCBs and there's still a lot of demand to live in Irvine from those buyers.
Click to expand...

Of course...you know I am pretty bullish about Irvine as a RE market.  FCB buyers are largely immune to the rise in interest rate that is likely to come in the next few years.  I think there may be one last rush to buy 2018-2019 before things settled down.   

Just stating that the Chinese FCB wave that pushed up the Irvine market in 2010-2012 is now nearing its end.
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I don't agree with you there, but we'll just have to agree to disagree on that point.

On the interest rate front, rates got up to 4.75% for a minute on the 30-year fixed.  Where are we today?  4.125% to 4.25% today.  So much for the rates going to the moon.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
On the interest rate front, rates got up to 4.75% for a minute on the 30-year fixed.  Where are we today?  4.125% to 4.25% today.  So much for the rates going to the moon.
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As I have repeatedly said here on this forum, don't base your home buying decision on fear of rates going up.  we will remain range bound as long as inflation remains low.  And when your personal w-2 raises start exceeding your expectations , that's when we have to worry about inflation and rising rates, until then ...

every now and then , when treasuries selloff , financial media (and advisors) will start beating the fear drum about interest rates.  then they will automatically go silent when interest rates fall / mean-revert back to the range. 
 
Is it just me or is a recession on the horizon? Also, there is an obvious RE slowdown. Why the F? will you buy a house?

(People need to wake up and smell the coffee. Pardon my French)
 
fortune11 said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
On the interest rate front, rates got up to 4.75% for a minute on the 30-year fixed.  Where are we today?  4.125% to 4.25% today.  So much for the rates going to the moon.
Click to expand...

As I have repeatedly said here on this forum, don't base your home buying decision on fear of rates going up.  we will remain range bound as long as inflation remains low.  And when your personal w-2 raises start exceeding your expectations , that's when we have to worry about inflation and rising rates, until then ...

every now and then , when treasuries selloff , financial media (and advisors) will start beating the fear drum about interest rates.  then they will automatically go silent when interest rates fall / mean-revert back to the range.
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I don't think anyone is worried about the rate per se but being priced out is a real thing...especially at the prices we are looking at in Irvine. 

An 1 % increase in rates is $500 a month for a $750,000 loan...then you add on the SALT cap.
 
eyephone said:
Is it just me or is a recession on the horizon? Also, there is an obvious RE slowdown. Why the F? will you buy a house?

(People need to wake up and smell the coffee. Pardon my French)
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It's not just you, plenty of other people have ridiculous theories about an impending recession.

Why would we buy a house during a slow down?  Why would you buy a house during a the upswing of a bubble?  Unless you plan on eventually selling the house and retiring in a completely different RE market, home appreciation money is fake money.  At best it's a hedge against inflating values of other homes. 

If you are own a home that you will one day sell or rent to help with an even nicer move up home, you should be *hoping* for RE prices to drop. 

As for a recession, go on, tell me how this recession will look.  Will the companies making loads of profit that are having trouble finding enough workers suddenly have mass layoffs?  If rates go up and money moves from stock markets to bonds and the Dow deflates a bit, do people stop spending money?
 
yes but the house you want has to be available to buy at the ?cheaper? price also. and even if it is others are waiting too. good luck avoiding having to settle for a dud as you see now on the market and even more like when there is a downturn of 10%.
 
eyephone said:
Why buy a house now when you potentially can buy it cheaper?
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I have friends that thought this way after the huge run-up in 2013-14. Now they wish they had bought in 2013...

I tried to time the stock market and missed out on huge gains. I've done very sell in life accidentally timing things (selling stocks because I needed the cash, buying a home because of a growing family), but done pretty badly when trying to time the top of markets.
 
irvineband said:
yes but the house you want has to be available to buy at the ?cheaper? price also. and even if it is others are waiting too. good luck avoiding having to settle for a dud as you see now on the market and even more like when there is a downturn of 10%.
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You think only 10%?

At first people were saying it was just an exception. Now people are saying only 10%.
 
paperboyNC said:
eyephone said:
Why buy a house now when you potentially can buy it cheaper?
Click to expand...

I have friends that thought this way after the huge run-up in 2013-14. Now they wish they had bought in 2013...

I tried to time the stock market and missed out on huge gains. I've done very sell in life accidentally timing things (selling stocks because I needed the cash, buying a home because of a growing family), but done pretty badly when trying to time the top of markets.
Click to expand...

Too bad for your friends? What can I say?
 
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