no_vaseline_IHB
New member
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1222693332][quote author="bigmoneysalsa" date=1222691880][quote author="columbussquare.com" date=1222689776]
<strong>Here is my view: Prices (as adjusted for financing) may still drop an additional 5-10% (from previous highs). However, the next 12-24 months could just as easily stay flat or bounce back 5-10%. Given this uncertainty if you're prepared and your budget is solid then it's ok to buy anytime within the next 18 months. There will a lot of people trying to time this market and not everyone will be right.</strong></blockquote>
I call shenanigans on anyone who says you can?t time the market or that it?s not worth the trouble. Lots of people looked at the evidence and decided that prices were going to fall. Anyone who was thinking of buying a SFR in OC 2 years ago and didn?t has probably already saved a few years worth of take home pay for a typical OC household.</blockquote>
Let me pile on while the piling is good.........
Less than a week ago, JP Morgan stated their standard case was 44% decline peak to trough, and their worst case was 58%. The standard case needed 7% unemployment; the worst case needed 8%.
<a href="http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/09/jpmorgan-conference-call.html">Cliffs Notes from Calculated Risk</a>
<a href="http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ONE/426788413x0x236634/b5a3d70a-28ac-4148-8966-71b18408c8c3/JPM_WManalystpresentation.pdf">Full cite from JPM's takeover of WaMu.</a>
We are currently at 7.7% unemployment, a scant 0.3 away from the "worst case".
<a href="http://wwwedd.cahwnet.gov/About_EDD/pdf/urate200809.pdf">http://wwwedd.cahwnet.gov/About_EDD/pdf/urate200809.pdf</a>
Rents might be the P/E ratio of real estate values, but they certainly have very little to do with how much a bank will lend (which sets your upper limit on what you can pay) and that brings me back to what does $375K get you? Not much outside of the 909. However, if the JPM worst case is good (and nobody has overshot the downside yet) that puts a bunch of formerly million dollar Irvine SFR's at $420K - and you can do that payment on the Irvine median income.
How do those fools in that toxic waste dump Villages of Columbus who bought at the peak feel now? How will they feel at forty two cents on the dollar? Would you miss six hundred dimes much?</blockquote>
Thread bump from the dead because we just blew through JPM's worst-case benchmark for unemployment.
Eat some of this VoC homedebtors!<a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/summary-post-unemployment-hits-81.html">Calculated Risk recap post on how UI is at 8.1% and rising.</a>
<strong>Here is my view: Prices (as adjusted for financing) may still drop an additional 5-10% (from previous highs). However, the next 12-24 months could just as easily stay flat or bounce back 5-10%. Given this uncertainty if you're prepared and your budget is solid then it's ok to buy anytime within the next 18 months. There will a lot of people trying to time this market and not everyone will be right.</strong></blockquote>
I call shenanigans on anyone who says you can?t time the market or that it?s not worth the trouble. Lots of people looked at the evidence and decided that prices were going to fall. Anyone who was thinking of buying a SFR in OC 2 years ago and didn?t has probably already saved a few years worth of take home pay for a typical OC household.</blockquote>
Let me pile on while the piling is good.........
Less than a week ago, JP Morgan stated their standard case was 44% decline peak to trough, and their worst case was 58%. The standard case needed 7% unemployment; the worst case needed 8%.
<a href="http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/09/jpmorgan-conference-call.html">Cliffs Notes from Calculated Risk</a>
<a href="http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ONE/426788413x0x236634/b5a3d70a-28ac-4148-8966-71b18408c8c3/JPM_WManalystpresentation.pdf">Full cite from JPM's takeover of WaMu.</a>
We are currently at 7.7% unemployment, a scant 0.3 away from the "worst case".
<a href="http://wwwedd.cahwnet.gov/About_EDD/pdf/urate200809.pdf">http://wwwedd.cahwnet.gov/About_EDD/pdf/urate200809.pdf</a>
Rents might be the P/E ratio of real estate values, but they certainly have very little to do with how much a bank will lend (which sets your upper limit on what you can pay) and that brings me back to what does $375K get you? Not much outside of the 909. However, if the JPM worst case is good (and nobody has overshot the downside yet) that puts a bunch of formerly million dollar Irvine SFR's at $420K - and you can do that payment on the Irvine median income.
How do those fools in that toxic waste dump Villages of Columbus who bought at the peak feel now? How will they feel at forty two cents on the dollar? Would you miss six hundred dimes much?</blockquote>
Thread bump from the dead because we just blew through JPM's worst-case benchmark for unemployment.
Eat some of this VoC homedebtors!<a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/summary-post-unemployment-hits-81.html">Calculated Risk recap post on how UI is at 8.1% and rising.</a>
