When is the best time to buy??????????

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[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1224142932]Capitulation.</blockquote>
It's the word of the month.

My husband walks around the house just saying "capitulation" for the heck of it.
 
[quote author="CalGal" date=1224148217][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1224142932]Capitulation.</blockquote>
It's the word of the month.

My husband walks around the house just saying "capitulation" for the heck of it.</blockquote>
I've been thinking of this word too but not saying out loud.
 
<em>The dogs of war don't negotiate

The dogs of war won't capitulate,</em>



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[quote author="rickhunter" date=1224142595]

I think real estate with easy lending led to this downturn.

I think real estate will lead us back. That's where investors, with a lot of money, will put their cash into.

I think home prices will stabilize because of this and it wont be at "fundamental" levels.

They will "overpay" like you said, but it will probably be their best bet looking at financials right now.

</blockquote>


not sure theres enough investors with the balls to put their cash into real estate now or even in the intermediate future...
 
[quote author="rickhunter" date=1224142595]I think you can stop at saying "Buying right now means you will overpay". And if people know this and they buy because they can afford it, there's really nothing else to say. If people continue to do this, sellers in Irvine will get their prices.



Now, instead of predicting things we cant control, like falling prices and rising prices for whatever reason...I wanted to add the following.



In every downturn, there's something that started the economic juices flowing again. In 97/98, what was it?

I think to look forward, you have to see who the players are in 2-3 years.

Who's holding all the cash? and what will they do with it?



I think real estate with easy lending led to this downturn.

I think real estate will lead us back. That's where investors, with a lot of money, will put their cash into.

I think home prices will stabilize because of this and it wont be at "fundamental" levels.

They will "overpay" like you said, but it will probably be their best bet looking at financials right now.

</blockquote>


The problem any potential investor?s face is in obtaining the capital to make investments.

The turmoil we?ve seen recently in the credit markets has led to tighter lending requirements and increased equity, more money down.

Overall, this translates to lower leverage.

High rate loans utilizing low leverage will not add up for most investors.

Low rates and loose lending standards utilizing high leverage is what led to the run up.

Those people are either out, under-water, or on the way out of the market.
 
[quote author="acpme" date=1224197505][quote author="rickhunter" date=1224142595]

I think real estate with easy lending led to this downturn.

I think real estate will lead us back. That's where investors, with a lot of money, will put their cash into.

I think home prices will stabilize because of this and it wont be at "fundamental" levels.

They will "overpay" like you said, but it will probably be their best bet looking at financials right now.

</blockquote>


<strong>not sure theres enough investors</strong> with the balls to put their cash into real estate now or even in the intermediate future...</blockquote>


Or enough real buyers. Real Estate is DEAD for the next decade.
 
Financially speaking, the best time to buy is when ownership is cheaper than rent, or at least somewhat equal.



If you're looking to purchase a long-term residence, look for a house that you really like and can comfortably afford. Over-paying a little to get what you want is OK, but not too much.
 
[quote author="flmgrip" date=1222599246][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1222587991] For example, I have 2 friends who still are unemployed since loosing their jobs in 2001 and they are living in Sillicon Valley. </blockquote>


mmmhhh... 7 years without a job.... that's the definition of a looser to me</blockquote>


I'm going to quote this for posterity. And keep it around to rub your nose in it later. You have no idea what hard times look like, and I doubt you've ever seen a hard days work before.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1224242621][quote author="flmgrip" date=1222599246][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1222587991] For example, I have 2 friends who still are unemployed since loosing their jobs in 2001 and they are living in Sillicon Valley. </blockquote>


mmmhhh... 7 years without a job.... that's the definition of a looser to me</blockquote>


I'm going to quote this for posterity. And keep it around to rub your nose in it later. You have no idea what hard times look like, and I doubt you've ever seen a hard days work before.</blockquote>


I'm guessing they were in tech. Went out early in the recession maybe even before 9/11 then were unfortunate enough to hit the one year unemployed mark in the jobless summer and fall of 2002.



Tech is great except if you lose your job. Once you're out for a year, you're basically unhireable. Once you hit the year mark, the bell is tolling, you need a job in weeks or you can start looking for a new career.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1224242987]

I'm guessing they were in tech. Went out early in the recession maybe even before 9/11 then were unfortunate enough to hit the one year unemployed mark in the jobless summer and fall of 2002.



Tech is great except if you lose your job. Once you're out for a year, you're basically unhireable. Once you hit the year mark, the bell is tolling, you need a job in weeks or you can start looking for a new career.</blockquote>


?!? I've never heard that broad a generalization before. That's true for some niche specialties in the tech-industry, but not in general. Tech-industry suffers from the reverse, too -- work too long in the same job/role, and that "pigeonholes" you into a corner (more so than in other fields.)



The most at risk tech workers are those with little experience (recent grads, entry-level jobs, etc.) They get hit by the double-wham-ee of outsourcing (entry-level jobs going, going gone for good!), and a overcrowded candidate pool...the ball is in the employer's court.



dot-com era was famous for an outrageously low barrier to entry (for potential employees), nitwits flocking to any kind of work related to 'computers', and equally nitwit employers hiring them en-masse. A lot of people joined the market (who didn't really belong there), then left for good once the market stabilized to a more realistic level.



Now that I think of it, a nice abstraction would make a good SAT analogy:

"tech-worker is to dot-com bust, as

a) real-estate agent is to bubble-period

b) first-time homeowner is to McMansion @ 0% financing

c) ...
 
[quote author="inmomsbasement" date=1224248607][quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1224242987]

I'm guessing they were in tech. Went out early in the recession maybe even before 9/11 then were unfortunate enough to hit the one year unemployed mark in the jobless summer and fall of 2002.



Tech is great except if you lose your job. Once you're out for a year, you're basically unhireable. Once you hit the year mark, the bell is tolling, you need a job in weeks or you can start looking for a new career.</blockquote>


?!? I've never heard that broad a generalization before. That's true for some niche specialties in the tech-industry, but not in general. Tech-industry suffers from the reverse, too -- work too long in the same job/role, and that "pigeonholes" you into a corner (more so than in other fields.)



The most at risk tech workers are those with little experience (recent grads, entry-level jobs, etc.) They get hit by the double-wham-ee of outsourcing (entry-level jobs going, going gone for good!), and a overcrowded candidate pool...the ball is in the employer's court.



dot-com era was famous for an outrageously low barrier to entry (for potential employees), nitwits flocking to any kind of work related to 'computers', and equally nitwit employers hiring them en-masse. A lot of people joined the market (who didn't really belong there), then left for good once the market stabilized to a more realistic level.



Now that I think of it, a nice abstraction would make a good SAT analogy:

"tech-worker is to dot-com bust, as

a) real-estate agent is to bubble-period

b) first-time homeowner is to McMansion @ 0% financing

c) ...</blockquote>


These 2 guys have at least 25 to 30 years under the belt. One guy is lucky enough to marry to a VP of engineering at CISCO so he does not have to worry about cash. However, he advised his daughter to not ever studying EE/CS again. The other guy went into real estate but only limping along financially. Both of them never worked again as an engineer.
 
IMO tech is like many other things; it's a continual learning process. You have to learn what's new, or spend the time to catch up. This is easiest while on-the-job. That's why if you're spending a year unemployed, it's hard to be hired again. It's not impossible though, especially if you put that unemployed time to good use.



As for those who are higher up, that's harder. Generally people w/huge salaries have limited opportunities and won't take the paycut. They have to dumb down the resume/expectations.
 
[quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1224279225]These 2 guys have at least 25 to 30 years under the belt. One guy is lucky enough to marry to a VP of engineering at CISCO so he does not have to worry about cash. However, he advised his daughter to not ever studying EE/CS again. The other guy went into real estate but only limping along financially. Both of them never worked again as an engineer.</blockquote>


There's a lot of truth to that. EE and ME (mechanical engeneering) are both like that. I was sad to see the most gifted EE I knew at Cal Poly Pomona (Deans medal winner, Tau Beta Pi member) work for Nordstroms for a year after graduation (unable to secure meaningful employment in his field). He wound up applying to law school.
 
I've always felt that if you can spend a year or more being unemployed... you can spend that same year in some related job that doesn't pay nearly quite as much as your old one.



The problem is most of these "engineers" are used to a certain salary range and are unwilling to start at the bottom again. If you're really worth the money you were paid before... you won't stay at the bottom... cream rises to the top and sometimes you need to get dirty to get back up there. The good thing is... you'll probably learn more stuff that will make you more marketable in case this happens again.



As niche as tech is... if you're a good programmer you should be able to find a job somewhere even if it's a different development platform. To me, the programming language rarely matters... if you're good... it's just syntax (and that's what Google is for).
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1224290805]I've always felt that if you can spend a year or more being unemployed... you can spend that same year in some related job that doesn't pay nearly quite as much as your old one.



The problem is most of these "engineers" are used to a certain salary range and are unwilling to start at the bottom again. If you're really worth the money you were paid before... you won't stay at the bottom... cream rises to the top and sometimes you need to get dirty to get back up there. The good thing is... you'll probably learn more stuff that will make you more marketable in case this happens again.



As niche as tech is... if you're a good programmer you should be able to find a job somewhere even if it's a different development platform. To me, the programming language rarely matters... if you're good... it's just syntax (and that's what Google is for).</blockquote>
There is ageism as well. The guy that is married to the VP of CISCO did take some contract jobs but some of these only lasted for 6 months. It was ironic because his wife was hiring 30 engineers a month in India while he was searching for a job. For this guy, money is not an issue(networth in the $10 million and up, his wife was one of original engineers at CISCO before it went IPO). It was a huge blow to his self esteem.

The other guy went back to school and did finally get an interview 6-8 months ago, but the bubble burst again. So he did not receive an offer. They both are coders or individual contributers, ie not management type.
 
Best time to buy is when ...you say you want to buy and everyone is negative and you cannot fine ONE person who will even back you up.



Right now, you still have realtors saying it's a great time :)
 
[quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1224291627][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1224290805]I've always felt that if you can spend a year or more being unemployed... you can spend that same year in some related job that doesn't pay nearly quite as much as your old one.



The problem is most of these "engineers" are used to a certain salary range and are unwilling to start at the bottom again. If you're really worth the money you were paid before... you won't stay at the bottom... cream rises to the top and sometimes you need to get dirty to get back up there. The good thing is... you'll probably learn more stuff that will make you more marketable in case this happens again.



As niche as tech is... if you're a good programmer you should be able to find a job somewhere even if it's a different development platform. To me, the programming language rarely matters... if you're good... it's just syntax (and that's what Google is for).</blockquote>
There is ageism as well. The guy that is married to the VP of CISCO did take some contract jobs but some of these only lasted for 6 months. It was ironic because his wife was hiring 30 engineers a month in India while he was searching for a job. For this guy, money is not an issue(networth in the $10 million and up, his wife was one of original engineers at CISCO before it went IPO). It was a huge blow to his self esteem.

The other guy went back to school and did finally get an interview 6-8 months ago, but the bubble burst again. So he did not receive an offer. They both are coders or individual contributers, ie not management type.</blockquote>


The tech recession forced a lot of these guys out of the industry. Many older engineers that didn't embrace C, Java, HTML, etc. got behind and stayed behind. Those dudes were probably COBOL guys...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1224295501][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1224291627][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1224290805]I've always felt that if you can spend a year or more being unemployed... you can spend that same year in some related job that doesn't pay nearly quite as much as your old one.



The problem is most of these "engineers" are used to a certain salary range and are unwilling to start at the bottom again. If you're really worth the money you were paid before... you won't stay at the bottom... cream rises to the top and sometimes you need to get dirty to get back up there. The good thing is... you'll probably learn more stuff that will make you more marketable in case this happens again.



As niche as tech is... if you're a good programmer you should be able to find a job somewhere even if it's a different development platform. To me, the programming language rarely matters... if you're good... it's just syntax (and that's what Google is for).</blockquote>
There is ageism as well. The guy that is married to the VP of CISCO did take some contract jobs but some of these only lasted for 6 months. It was ironic because his wife was hiring 30 engineers a month in India while he was searching for a job. For this guy, money is not an issue(networth in the $10 million and up, his wife was one of original engineers at CISCO before it went IPO). It was a huge blow to his self esteem.

The other guy went back to school and did finally get an interview 6-8 months ago, but the bubble burst again. So he did not receive an offer. They both are coders or individual contributers, ie not management type.</blockquote>


The tech recession forced a lot of these guys out of the industry. Many older engineers that didn't embrace C, Java, HTML, etc. got behind and stayed behind. Those dudes were probably COBOL guys...</blockquote>


I know they are not COBOL guys.

BTW, those COBOL guys are long in retirement. In 1999, they had to bring those guys back from retirement to fix the 2000 bug/problem.
 
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