What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Have you ever thought about running an analysis of the IPO/Shiller score based on when the home was last sold?



My theory is that people who bought in the last few years really don't want to drop their price too much, so the score would be higher. Whereas a home sold in 98 would see appreciation anyway so there's not as much negotiation done by the seller?
 
[quote author="Cubic Zirconia" date=1229659851]What is with the houses on Terracima? These are off of Culver, and are built 1982. There is nothing exciting about them. Still they are holding good prices..



http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/8-Terracima-92620/home/4778328



CZ</blockquote>


I beg to differ. 8 Terracima's recent sale was a 2003 rollback, around 12% deeper price drop than the general Irvine average/median. 34 Filare, a couple of streets over, closed in October at a 191 CS index, again, much lower than the general Irvine average. I think those places are the ones getting killed and pulling down the overall Irvine market.



Nice short walk to a good junior high from there but I'd never elect to buy one of those homes...
 
I didn't check what the previous price on those properties were, but when I compare the sq ft area, the condition of the house to West Irvine/ Sheridan plan/ Northwood pointe (all with lower HOAs unlike North park and Woodbury), this place still looks pricey to me.



For 510k, there was 62 Night Bloom on the other side of Culver that sold around the same time.



CZ
 
[quote author="Cubic Zirconia" date=1229659851]These are off of Culver...</blockquote>
Hey... what's wrong with being off Culver? It's almost like waterfront property... like a river with speedboats.
 
[quote author="Cubic Zirconia" date=1229660994]Huh? Waterfront? Is there anything an aspiring Irvinian should be aware of before buying on Culver?



CZ</blockquote>


the traffic level/noise level is comparable to the 405fwy. but since the level of truck traffic is lower than the 405fwy, you should have less worry about deisel exhaust and particulate causing cancer and ciruculatory problems.
 
[quote author="Cubic Zirconia" date=1229660653]I didn't check what the previous price on those properties were, but when I compare the sq ft area, the condition of the house to West Irvine/ Sheridan plan/ Northwood pointe (all with lower HOAs unlike North park and Woodbury), this place still looks pricey to me.



For 510k, there was 62 Night Bloom on the other side of Culver that sold around the same time.



CZ</blockquote>


IUSD vs. TUSD. Also, 62 Night Bloom is proximal to both Culver and the 5. The junior high serving Night Bloom is a 20 minute drive up into Tustin Ranch on a school morning. These old shacks near Sierra Vista only have to deal with the Culver noise and get local/neighborhood schools.
 
OMG, who in the hell paid $1.042M for <a href="http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/34-Gardenpath-Irvine-CA-92603/64681210_zpid/">this plan 3 Arborel in TRidge</a> after bubble's peak?



Well, it just closed for $770K, which would mean a $300K loss in less than two years...



EDIT - Figures... A realtor bought this place for $1.042M in 2007 with almost 100% financing.
 
[quote author="Cubic Zirconia" date=1229660994]Huh? Waterfront? Is there anything an aspiring Irvinian should be aware of before buying on Culver?



CZ</blockquote>
Imagine the rushing sounds of a river. Then imagine the roaring noise of high power motorcycles... err... speedboats.



That's what I mean by waterfront.
 
<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/28-Morro-Bay-92602/home/5770502">Ten's future home</a> got taken down today after 2/3 of a year on the market and $300K of price drops... My guess is sale price of $1.85 or so.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1229674775]<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/28-Morro-Bay-92602/home/5770502">Ten's future home</a> got taken down today after 2/3 of a year on the market and $300K of price drops... My guess is sale price of $1.85 or so.</blockquote>


Wow,

That is disheartening!

Sweet Crib

Not even close to $300/sq.foot yet.

Can?t have everything I suppose.
 
I'm a little giddy... I am seeing a CS index of under 200 in Irvine for the first time. Don't know if it will hold out for the rest of the month, but December is showing a decent drop right now for the month.



What makes that drop even better is that it's on a median sales price that is 11% higher than November's. That is suggestive of movement of the rollbacks up the property ladder further into the mid priced category.



<img src="http://www.ipoplaya.com/decroll.jpg" alt="" />
 
Okay, forgive me for being naive and not reading every post, but what is this Case Schiller index and what's the significance of it dropping below 200?
 
[quote author="nefron" date=1229818923]Okay, forgive me for being naive and not reading every post, but what is this Case Schiller index and what's the significance of it dropping below 200?</blockquote>


It's a way to measure current prices relative to past. It's a much better indicator of pricing trends than median sales price. It is benchmarked at Jan 2000 starting with a 100 index number. At the height of the bubble, the Case-Shiller index value for our region was around 274. For Irvine, its been treading in the low 200 range for almost all of 2008. A moved below 200 likely signals another leg down on prices.
 
[quote author="nefron" date=1229818923]Okay, forgive me for being naive and not reading every post, but what is this Case Schiller index and what's the significance of it dropping below 200?</blockquote>


<strong><a href="http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,0,0,0,0,0.html">Link to S&P/Case-Schiller Index description</a></strong>



<strong><a href="http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SP_CS_Home_Price_Indices_Methodology_Web.pdf">Link to S&P/Case-Schiller methodology</a></strong> - *



* there is important information regarding eligibility criteria (p. 6) and index construction (p. 7-8), namely that they choose to divide the data into 3 different price tiers, and that they exclude condos and comparisons to new construction sales.



<strong><a href="http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_History_112555.xls">Link to S&P/Case-Schiller Historical Data</a></strong>



Ipoplaya has taken closing data for Irvine and some surrounding areas and created a micro-market (Irvine-specific) targeted data set.



An index number below 200 indicates that prices have rolled back to pre-May 2004 levels.



Link to <strong><a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">IPO-Schiller site</a></strong>.



Hope this helps.

-IR2
 
Okay, thank you both for that explanation. But then, if prices at the Jan 2000 level are the 100 benchmark, we have not fallen far at all from the bubble peak. Right?
 
no, it got quite high.



low tier (25th percentile) got to 330, middle tier (median priced house) got to 280, and the high tier to 240.



irvine probably represents mostly high tier (current pricing above $570k). so irvine has dropped ~20%.



(I also report CS for Costa Mesa in the "other OC cities" section. it is currently around 180 in CM)
 
[quote author="nefron" date=1229829918]Okay, thank you both for that explanation. But then, if prices at the Jan 2000 level are the 100 benchmark, we have not fallen far at all from the bubble peak. Right?</blockquote>


Well, taking those links and performing some histogramification (chartpr0n alert), it looks like we've come down quite a bit, I'd say.

Here's a peek for some of the markets:



<img src="http://irvinerealtorsite.com/CaseSchiller1990.JPG" alt="" />
 
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