What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

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From DataQuick via Lansner's blog:



Price vs. 07 # of sales vs. 07

Irvine 92602 $477,250 -29.3% 10 -37.5%

Irvine 92603 $768,500 -15.5% 21 -4.5%

Irvine 92604 $470,000 -28.6% 13 -13.3%

Irvine 92606 $550,000 -33.7% 12 -52.0%

Irvine 92612 $424,818 +12.4% 15 -6.3%

Irvine 92614 $422,500 -9.6% 10 +25.0%

Irvine 92618 $635,000 -5.6% 22 -45.0%

Irvine 92620 $676,000 -6.1% 49 +48.5%



Unless I am reading this wrong, it appears there is only one Irvine zip which does not show a decrease in prices.
 
[quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1231513913][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1231512711][quote author="nefron" date=1231512264]Your closing price list shows 3671 Claremont in Westpark as sold as of 12/23/08 at $591,000 but it's back on the market as a short sale for $625,000. What's up with that?</blockquote>


I noticed it coming back on to the market. Didn't realize it was showing up as a short... I thought maybe a realtor bought it to try and make a quick and very small buck. The old MLS listing definitely shows as a "closed sale". Deuce would need to check title history to know the true deal on that place.</blockquote>


This was not sold. Fell out of escrow and changed agents. User error on the part of the brokerage.

FWIW, notes state that the bank has approved the short sale at list price, so this would fall under the "pre-approved" short sale listings.



Good luck,

-IR2</blockquote>


Like the neighborhood, can't afford the price. I'm a really small fry :)
 
<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com">10 new escrows just joined the party</a>. Also had three fall out of escrow and go back active...



Buying activity has picked up but it doesn't appear that listing activity has risen significantly as yet. Inventory has been hovering around the same level for a couple of weeks, and very little has closed due to the holidays, so that should mean very little is getting listed.
 
My guess: Many folks have been waiting for the big spring market to list their properties.

My second guess: They will be disappointed.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1223113001][quote author="IACRenter" date=1223106526]Things are heating up in Northpark: I was considering placing an offer on <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/28-Sebastian-92602/home/5812777">28 Sebastian (MLS S549133)</a> but my agent said they got multilple offers and accepted one above asking price of $849K. Only a few days on the market and sold. MLS for the property still says active but they must have not updated yet.



Looking at past comps for a <a href="http://www.garyfallis.com/img/floorplans/npfp/mendocino_p2.jpg">plan 2 Mendocino</a>, I thought the price was just okay. Apparently the market thinks otherwise. There were a bunch of Asian folks strolling around the place on Wed at the broker preview day.



Another Plan 2 Mendocino at 35 Sebastian (MLS S547518) is Pending Sale--they were asking $914K but their lot seems smaller but interior is more upgraded. If we assume around 5% off list then their final price might be around $868K which maybe closer to the above list offer for 28 Sebastian.</blockquote>


I remember looking at one of those plans, or at least very similar, on Dinuba last Fall. Downstairs is nice but the secondary bedrooms are tiny... It sold for $950K in November.



A sales price in the low to mid $800s would be on par with recent Irvine averages...</blockquote>


So the <a href="http://www.garyfallis.com/img/floorplans/npfp/mendocino.htm">Mendocino tract</a> in Northpark is still jumping even in the winter:



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/23-Bel-Spgs-92602/home/5771458">23 Bell Springs</a> went into escrow as soon as it hit RedFin on day #1. It must have been sold during a brokers preview prior to listing in MLS. It appears to be a plan 3 Mendocino.



And just a recap--28 Sebastian which was a plan 2 Mendocino, closed on 10/27/08 for $890K, $40K above asking price.



So when are all the FCBs and knife catchers going to run out of steam? I am still waiting for the economy and credit squeeze to take another 20%+ out of Irvine housing prices before I bite.
 
Here is a co-efficient of variance analysis between list prices and closing prices using IPO's tracked data. Basically the co-efficient has drawn dramatically closer to 1.0 after October 2008. This is indicative of closing prices being much closer to the list prices.
<fieldset class="gc-fieldset">
<legend> Attached files </legend> <a href="http://www.talkirvine.com/converted_files/images/forum_attachments/227_a4lSYNlOWPp6DmwZRCHu.xls" target="_blank" class="gc-files">Graph.xls</a> <span class="gc-filesize">(14 B)</span> </fieldset>
 
From DataQuick via Lansner's blog:



Irvine 92602 $531,000 -18.3%

Irvine 92603 $622,500 -39.9%

Irvine 92604 $470,000 -28.6%

Irvine 92606 $587,500 -25.9%

Irvine 92612 $429,909 +28.3%

Irvine 92614 $415,000 -9.5%

Irvine 92618 $609,500 -12.6%

Irvine 92620 $677,000 +7.2%
 
[quote author="PURPLEHAZE" date=1232068496]Here is a co-efficient of variance analysis between list prices and closing prices using IPO's tracked data. Basically the co-efficient has drawn dramatically closer to 1.0 after October 2008. This is indicative of closing prices being much closer to the list prices.</blockquote>


When inventory is relative low, DOMs are down, deep discounting is unnecessary. Also, many REOs and shorts have embraced the practice of offer way under market list prices and closing at current market, considerably higher than list.
 
How likely this will happen: four to six months into Obama adminstration, good news will be more visiblely reported, and bad news will still be there, but be less focused. This might create more consumer confidence. In term, consumer spends more, and market cross the board gets a boost.
 
Poor 53 Legacy in West Irvine. Fell out of escrow again, for the 3rd or 4th time...



Added a few more new escrows and a a closed sale on a plan 3 Arborel in TRidge at $760K. Amazing.
 
[quote author="irvine123" date=1232162225]How likely this will happen: four to six months into Obama adminstration, good news will be more visiblely reported, and bad news will still be there, but be less focused. This might create more consumer confidence. In term, consumer spends more, and market cross the board gets a boost.</blockquote>


Consumers can only spend more if they have money. The problems are deep and the job losses are great. We are really past the point where it is only confidence driving the economy, reality has set in and that is a bit harder to change.
 
[quote author="irvine123" date=1232162225]How likely this will happen: four to six months into Obama adminstration, good news will be more visiblely reported, and bad news will still be there, but be less focused. This might create more consumer confidence. In term, consumer spends more, and market cross the board gets a boost.</blockquote>


There is still the problem that price/income is way out of whack.



no way someone making $90k is going to buy a $600k house anymore (at least till the next craziness, a few years at least, I hope)
 
[quote author="irvine123" date=1232162225]How likely this will happen: four to six months into Obama adminstration, good news will be more visiblely reported, and bad news will still be there, but be less focused. This might create more consumer confidence. In term, consumer spends more, and market cross the board gets a boost.</blockquote>


The truth is exactly the opposite of what is heard in the MSM.

The truth is an economy, just like a household, can not borrow or spend it's way to prosperity.

The truth is low interest rates destroy capital.

The truth is government intervention will cause more problems and delay a return to prosperity.

The government does not have any money and can not create jobs. Government can only take from production and create inefficiency.

The mortgage problem is only the most visible and most recent problem. The real problem is debt, fiat currency, and fractional reserve banking.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1232194978][quote author="irvine123" date=1232162225]How likely this will happen: four to six months into Obama adminstration, good news will be more visiblely reported, and bad news will still be there, but be less focused. This might create more consumer confidence. In term, consumer spends more, and market cross the board gets a boost.</blockquote>


The truth is exactly the opposite of what is heard in the MSM.

The truth is an economy, just like a household, can not borrow or spend it's way to prosperity.

The truth is low interest rates destroy capital.

The truth is government intervention will cause more problems and delay a return to prosperity.

The government does not have any money and can not create jobs. Government can only take from production and create inefficiency.

The mortgage problem is only the most visible and most recent problem. The real problem is debt, fiat currency, and fractional reserve banking.</blockquote>


Welcome to The Church of Economic Reality, Pastor Awgee presiding!
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1232195478][quote author="awgee" date=1232194978][quote author="irvine123" date=1232162225]How likely this will happen: four to six months into Obama adminstration, good news will be more visiblely reported, and bad news will still be there, but be less focused. This might create more consumer confidence. In term, consumer spends more, and market cross the board gets a boost.</blockquote>


The truth is exactly the opposite of what is heard in the MSM.

The truth is an economy, just like a household, can not borrow or spend it's way to prosperity.

The truth is low interest rates destroy capital.

The truth is government intervention will cause more problems and delay a return to prosperity.

The government does not have any money and can not create jobs. Government can only take from production and create inefficiency.

The mortgage problem is only the most visible and most recent problem. The real problem is debt, fiat currency, and fractional reserve banking.</blockquote>


Welcome to The Church of Economic Reality, Pastor Awgee presiding!</blockquote>


Can I get an <strong>AMEN!</strong> ?
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1232195678][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1232195478][quote author="awgee" date=1232194978][quote author="irvine123" date=1232162225]How likely this will happen: four to six months into Obama adminstration, good news will be more visiblely reported, and bad news will still be there, but be less focused. This might create more consumer confidence. In term, consumer spends more, and market cross the board gets a boost.</blockquote>


The truth is exactly the opposite of what is heard in the MSM.

The truth is an economy, just like a household, can not borrow or spend it's way to prosperity.

The truth is low interest rates destroy capital.

The truth is government intervention will cause more problems and delay a return to prosperity.

The government does not have any money and can not create jobs. Government can only take from production and create inefficiency.

The mortgage problem is only the most visible and most recent problem. The real problem is debt, fiat currency, and fractional reserve banking.</blockquote>


Welcome to The Church of Economic Reality, Pastor Awgee presiding!</blockquote>


Can I get an <strong>AMEN!</strong> ?</blockquote>




You got a "thanks" so I guess that's an AMEN!
 
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<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/2-Clear-Crk-92620/home/4790450">This new listing</a> in NW Pointe is not in escrow yet, but I bet it will be soon. List price is 2003 rollback.
 
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