What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
For those of you doesn't think IPO 's trend is right, or not complete enough, I have a suggestion: since IPO's analysis is based on real data and tracking real homes. How about you start tracking homes that are not on MLS, but are being sold or going to escrow. This way you will be more credible. I see your point, but without data, you are just one of the million people who are just speculating, which is really doesn't belong on this trend and mean much. This trend is all about hard data. thanks
 
[quote author="irvine123" date=1212784344]For those of you doesn't think IPO 's trend is right, or not complete enough, I have a suggestion: since IPO's analysis is based on real data and tracking real homes. How about you start tracking homes that are not on MLS, but are being sold or going to escrow. This way you will be more credible. I see your point, but without data, you are just one of the million people who are just speculating, which is really doesn't belong on this trend and mean much. This trend is all about hard data. thanks</blockquote>


Actually, if you back in the thread a ways, you will see we have done that a few times. Ipop's response, (and please correct me if I am inaccurate Ipop), is that the year over year data and other data provided is not important to Ipop and he is keeping track of the data that is important to him.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1212765428][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1212758505]If I post on Craiglist, will they respond?</blockquote>


Dude, I dare you do this, hell no... I triple dog dare you to do this. In fact, you better get IR2 an assistant to handle the flood of calls you will get. Granted, 99.9% will be crap, but there is that .1% out there that would be legit. Actually just post IR2's phone number and email, and let him handle the calls. I wouldn't be surprised if you got some good leads for a home in your range.



But, do yourself a favor, do not tell me when you have posted it, because I will find it in less than a minute. Trust me, and if you don't, just ask the ever elusive Effenheimer if you doubt my google-fu skills.</blockquote>


Deuce did this for us on Craigslist last year. A "house wanted" add for a particular neighborhood. Failed miserably...
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1212785238][quote author="irvine123" date=1212784344]For those of you doesn't think IPO 's trend is right, or not complete enough, I have a suggestion: since IPO's analysis is based on real data and tracking real homes. How about you start tracking homes that are not on MLS, but are being sold or going to escrow. This way you will be more credible. I see your point, but without data, you are just one of the million people who are just speculating, which is really doesn't belong on this trend and mean much. This trend is all about hard data. thanks</blockquote>


Actually, if you back in the thread a ways, you will see we have done that a few times. Ipop's response, (and please correct me if I am inaccurate Ipop), is that the year over year data and other data provided is not important to Ipop and he is keeping track of the data that is important to him.</blockquote>


I think YOY data that compares pre credit crunch vs. post credit crunch isn't particularly useful. The credit crisis was a watershed event that essentially ground the RE market to a halt. Comparing activity some month before then and after that is a bit of an apples to oranges. The paradigm has shifted... I think YOY data post credit crisis might be more meaningful, but definitely not as useful for a potential buyer such as myself that wants data to help craft offer pricing.



I care about the relationship of sales prices to whatever good driver I can find for them. The recent firming of prices in Irvine appears to have coincided nicely with a reduction in the months inventory figure from 10+ early in the year to somewhere in the 6-8 range today. I am most curious to see if prices will continue down with new inventory dynamics, i.e. 900ish properties on the market and sales now up at the 150 range. IR has contended that even in a lower inventory situation such as this (relative to the recent past), since the banks are the only ones selling anything, that a sales up - prices continue down scenario is plausible.



We are very close to a 16-month low in inventory in Irvine if you believe the ziprealty graph. I'd think that this information alone would make the biggest uber bear's out there at least question the near-term prospects for continued declines...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1212789987][quote author="graphrix" date=1212765428][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1212758505]If I post on Craiglist, will they respond?</blockquote>


Dude, I dare you do this, hell no... I triple dog dare you to do this. In fact, you better get IR2 an assistant to handle the flood of calls you will get. Granted, 99.9% will be crap, but there is that .1% out there that would be legit. Actually just post IR2's phone number and email, and let him handle the calls. I wouldn't be surprised if you got some good leads for a home in your range.



But, do yourself a favor, do not tell me when you have posted it, because I will find it in less than a minute. Trust me, and if you don't, just ask the ever elusive Effenheimer if you doubt my google-fu skills.</blockquote>


Deuce did this for us on Craigslist last year. A "house wanted" add for a particular neighborhood. Failed miserably...</blockquote>


Yep, below was posted weekly in the "housing wanted" section with absolutely zero interest. I suspect it sounded too suspiciously like a Realtor fishing for listings (which, of course, it was). What <u><strong>was</strong></u> closer to being successful (4 decent leads) was walking the neighborhood with more personal info regarding the "family Ipop" and banging on <strong>every </strong>door with a 3-car garage.



If I recall, there were two that had the right specs but were poorly laid-out, one wanted WTF pricing, and another had a leak from the second-floor toilet that had progressed to the kitchen ceiling drywall. Remind me again why we didn't pull the trigger on that one? I'm sure I gave you my best high-pressure spiel...



<blockquote>Posted to real estate wanted on orange county craigslist

This will make a new copy of this posting available on the site. You will have the opportunity to make changes to the content before it is made live.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------





We are looking to move into xxxxxxxx neighborhood in Irvine, CA. We have friends that live there but none of the homes that are on the market currently fit our needs.



We are pre-approved solidly, with a locked-in preapproval. We are looking for at least 2400sqft., 4 bedrooms, ideally on a lower-traffic street or cul-de-sac.



We are flexible in our move-in date, escrow terms, and the rest of the details. We want to be there because of the Irvine schools and because of the neighborhood.



Please tell a friend if you know of anyone that this may fit.



Thank you!





Location: Irvine, CA

it's NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests</blockquote>
 
IR2 and IPOP,



You guys are "INTENSE" with Serious "Balls of Fire" banging on every door with with a 3-car garage. ("Wait that didn't come out just right.") Anyways, Both brave men have Panda's ULIMATE RESPECTS.

However, I am very warm to the idea of walking the neighborhood and striking a friendly conversation with one of the home owners asking if they know of anyone in the area who is interested in selling their home.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1212799188]IR2 and IPOP,



You guys are "INTENSE" with Serious "Balls of Fire" banging on every door with with a 3-car garage. ("Wait that didn't come out just right.") Anyways, Both brave men have Panda's ULIMATE RESPECTS.

However, I am very warm to the idea of walking the neighborhood and striking a friendly conversation with one of the home owners asking if they know of anyone in the area who is interested in selling their home.</blockquote>


If anyone is REALLY looking to buy a house with very, very paritcular specifications in a particular neighborhood, please PM me. I will do a full check of each and every home in the neighborhood. I will seperate out the homes with the items you need. Then I will look at their current financing situation, and do a market comparision. I will send back a list of each house, the exact specs, and their current financial situation. Doubtless many will be hard 'underwater' and may be open to discussions to an individual with the full facts behind them.



PM is open, go!
 
Another three escrows just added to the list...



Also, Fanlight, a Mille Fleur plan 3, closed at $1.329M. Looks like they broke even with Feb 2007 purchase price. Unbelievable.



<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">Updated IPO-Shiller</a>
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1212791724]

I think YOY data that compares pre credit crunch vs. post credit crunch isn't particularly useful. The credit crisis was a watershed event that essentially ground the RE market to a halt. Comparing activity some month before then and after that is a bit of an apples to oranges.</blockquote>


YOY do not use some month. They use the same month because most real estate statisticians, (excluding yourself of course), find it more like apples to apples for different years whereas month to month would be more like apples to oranges for the same year.


<blockquote>



I care about the relationship of sales prices to whatever good driver I can find for them.</blockquote>


How do you know whatever actual driver of prices you can find are a driver and not a coincident factor? Have you done historical comparisons? I posted a graph from the 1990 to 1995 showing that inventories do not correlate with prices. Inventories from 1991 to 1995, the last major re price decline, marched down along with prices.
 
Irvine123- so, you see, confliciting data has been posted, but Ipop only uses that data which fits his model and does not find conflicting data particularly useful.
 
<blockquote>YOY do not use some month. They use the same month because most real estate statisticians, (excluding yourself of course), find it more like apples to apples for different years whereas month to month would be more like apples to oranges for the same year.</blockquote>


I think you miss my point, maybe not... If you think comparing YOY months sales is useful, despite fundamental changes in many underlying factors over that time span, knock yourself out. I am curious, what does your read on recent YOY data suggest to you about the housing market? That prices are headed down? Headed up? I'm interested in hearing about which YOY figures you find relevant, especially since you are usually bashing me for discarding their short-term impacts, and your intepretation of these statistics with regards to the direction of home prices over the next few months. Between now and the end of the year as well if you please...



<blockquote>How do you know whatever actual driver of prices you can find are a driver and not a coincident factor? Have you done historical comparisons? I posted a graph from the 1990 to 1995 showing that inventories do not correlate with prices. Inventories from 1991 to 1995, the last major re price decline, marched down along with prices.</blockquote>


I don't know whether or not any indicators/drivers/etc. re: prices are direct or coincident. I don't believe I've ever made a claim that I have discovered the key to modeling real estate prices... Me, I'm still watching the markets, looking at the data, and trying to get a feel for trends. It is possible that the recently declining months inventory figure for Irvine is totally coincidental to recent firming in prices here. I don't think so, but could be.
 
Recent YOY data does not tell me much unless compared to other YOY data over time. YOY data over many months establishes a trend.


The trend is down and there is nothing in YOY data to suggest a change.


Looking at YOY data is just technical analysis of price data. It is much more useful for predictive purposes to understand long term fundamentals affecting real estate; ie. availability of credit, buyer psychology, real estate cycles, and the influence of buyer psychology on real estate cylcles, credit cycles, Federal Reserve monetary policy, lender psychlology, lending standards, demographics, builder psychology, monetary trends, debt accumulation on both a macro and micro level, the federal deficit, rental rates, inflation trends. If I think of any more, I will post them.


Have you seen the latest monthly price changes posted on Lansner's blog? Irvine and one or two other cities had only minor price decreases for May. The great majority of Orange County and the US had huge price decreases. That tells me the trend is still down and it is more likely the majority trend will affect the minority than the other way around. What do you think?


Maybe it is bashing, maybe it is not. Maybe it is just pointing out flaws in your conclusions. Is that bashing you? Irvine123 accused fellow posters of not including data with their posts. I am showing him/her that that supposition is incorrect, and rather you have decided that the other data is not particularly useful for your purposes. Is that bashing you? I prefer to think I am pointing out flaws and faulty assumptions in your conclusions, but am not bashing you. I take issue with your conclusions, not with you personally. I actually have an extremely high opinion of you personally.
 
Awgee, arguing with Ipo over YOY vs. month-to-month is pointless. Ipo values month-to-month because he is close to purchasing a home, as soon as it reaches the price point he agrees with. This is the same situation I am in, as well as over a dozen people that I know personally. Analyzing YOY is interesting for charting historical financial data, but in terms of predicting what drops we'll see in which month, it is not that useful. By posting actual asking and closing prices and DOM, Ipo is doing us a great service by providing up-to-the-minute hard data on how quickly the declines are coming (or not coming), what kind of homes are hitting the market, how to price offers, and how long we have to make decisions on homes before they are gone.
 
I agree. IPOP rocks with the great services he has been providing us. He's very informative, willing to help, and this half asian brother knows what he is talking about. Make sure your ears are wide open when this brother talks.



http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/21-Grape-Arbor-92620/home/5931550

I am seeing a Camelia tract 1750 square feet/ with 5000 sq ft. lot for only $525,000. Best prices i have seen at Northwood II and seems like a short sale. This price should give some pressure to the Portisol Tracts in Woodbury to drop their prices to this level. Is there any problems with this property that we should know about? Is this price for real?



http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/68-Crabapple-92620/home/5931377

What's this guy smokin asking for more than $400 a square foot in Northwood II? Doesn't this seller realize that the other Camelia tracts in that listed is in the mid to low $300. Drop your prices 20% and maybe you'll stand a chance.



Panda.
 
I can tell you no way the bank will approve this, the agent purpose drop the price by $300k just to get all the attention, they are NOT interest in sell it at this price, I know from the agent. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/21-Grape-Arbor-92620/home/5931550



[quote author="PANDA" date=1212903492]I agree. IPOP rocks with the great services he has been providing us. He's very informative, willing to help, and this half asian brother knows what he is talking about. Make sure your ears are wide open when this brother talks.



http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/21-Grape-Arbor-92620/home/5931550

I am seeing a Camelia tract 1750 square feet/ with 5000 sq ft. lot for only $525,000. Best prices i have seen at Northwood II and seems like a short sale. This price should give some pressure to the Portisol Tracts in Woodbury to drop their prices to this level. Is there any problems with this property that we should know about? Is this price for real?



http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/68-Crabapple-92620/home/5931377

What's this guy smokin asking for more than $400 a square foot in Northwood II? Doesn't this seller realize that the other Camelia tracts in that listed is in the mid to low $300. Drop your prices 20% and maybe you'll stand a chance.



Panda.</blockquote>
 
Well, the banks better get used to it because $550k price is still in the WTF price range in my eyes for a tiny 1750 sq/ft BOX. The correct non-bubble price for this Camelia tract should be at $437,500 - $450,000 range. That is the price we will see in Northwood II in 2010 and that is the price PANDA will pay.



[quote author="looking&checking;" date=1212962115]I can tell you no way the bank will approve this, the agent purpose drop the price by $300k just to get all the attention, they are NOT interest in sell it at this price, I know from the agent. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/21-Grape-Arbor-92620/home/5931550
 
I agree with you Panda, but unfortunately, people in Irvine (mostly Asian buyer) don't understand this......and they tend to have a deep pocket when come to savings. I pretty sure this home will sell in the high to low $700k knowing those facts.



[quote author="PANDA DREAMING OF IRVINE" date=1212962769]Well, the banks better get used to it because $550k price is still in the WTF price range in my eyes for a tiny 1750 sq/ft BOX. The correct non-bubble price for this Camelia tract should be at $437,500 - $450,000 range. That is the price we will see in Northwood II in 2010 and that is the price PANDA will pay.



[quote author="looking&checking;" date=1212962115]I can tell you no way the bank will approve this, the agent purpose drop the price by $300k just to get all the attention, they are NOT interest in sell it at this price, I know from the agent. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/21-Grape-Arbor-92620/home/5931550</blockquote>
 
Let the foreign Chinese and Korean knife catchers buy these homes at the $700,000 range. We will then buy their home for $450,000.



FYI: I dropped my Irvine real estate agent like a fly because I was getting sick and tired of her lies. i.e. inventories levels are at one month supply and we in a sellers market in Irvine. Where are all the RE agents with integrity like IR2 these days?
 
I think the key word here is "foreign". I'm an Asian, but work and live in IR. What I offer see is people from other country pump in their money to Irvine real estate which they have no business or intention of living here. It drives the home price up and price-out a lot of the middle income people who actually live and work in Irivne, who provides a services to the community. We can all thank the weak US dollar and the lack of some form of restriction to this.



[quote author="PANDA" date=1212965229]Let the foreign Chinese and Korean knife catchers buy these homes at the $700,000 range. We will then buy their home for $450,000.



FYI: I dropped my Irvine real estate agent like a fly because I was getting sick and tired of her lies. i.e. inventories levels are at one month supply and we in a sellers market in Irvine.</blockquote>
 
[quote author="looking&checking;" date=1212965758]I think the key word here is "foreign". I'm an Asian, but work and live in IR. What I offer see is people from other country pump in their money to Irvine real estate which they have no business or intention of living here. It drives the home price up and price-out a lot of the middle income people who actually live and work in Irivne, who provides a services to the community. We can all thank the weak US dollar and the lack of some form of restriction to this.



[quote author="PANDA" date=1212965229]Let the foreign Chinese and Korean knife catchers buy these homes at the $700,000 range. We will then buy their home for $450,000.



FYI: I dropped my Irvine real estate agent like a fly because I was getting sick and tired of her lies. i.e. inventories levels are at one month supply and we in a sellers market in Irvine.</blockquote></blockquote>


Look&checking;,



I could not agree with you more. If we americans wanted to purchase land or real estate in Korea, we are not allowed to because we are not korean citizens. I'm sure it is difficult to buy real estate in China as well. Why does Irvine make it so easy for rich foreign asians to buy a home here, driving the price up and pricing-out the middle income americans who deserve these homes. I also wish that the government would do something to restrict foreigners to buy the homes in Irvine or atleast a priority should be given to U.S. Citizens and Permanent Residents. If a foreigner and an american both want to buy the same $1M home in Irvine and the Rich foreign China man is willing to pay 100% cash, the home should be given to the american who can put $200,000 down and take a $800,000 mortgage.



On a larger scale, I have personal issues with the U.S. government. I feel that they have messed up pretty bad and the worst part of it is that they don't want the americans to know how bad this recession is going to be. We are in a trillion dollar deficit and we are completely hopeless in paying it back. The FED is cranking up the printing press making monopoly money, making our dollar practically worthless. The FED will try to inflate its way out of this mess and avoid deflation at all costs. Who will suffer from the mistakes of our government, we the Americans will.



At the same time, the Chinese currency RB will appreciate the most out of all asian currencies against the weakening dollar. This makes Irvine homes look very cheap in the eyes of "Rich Foreign China Man." And "YES" Panda does FEAR the buying power of the "Rich Foreign China Man."
 
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