What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="graphrix" date=1212563839]Did someone say high-end? <a href="http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=59726362">Well, 3 Raines went back to the bank today for $900k</a>. A cool little condo in Oak Creek went back to the bank for $459k. There were some good ones outside of Irvine today and yesterday too. One in Santa Ana rolled back to an 2002 price again.</blockquote>


Someone just closed on a lovely NP property, <a href="http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=54972275">20 Sebastian</a>, for $418/sf. They paid almost peak price for the house, $60K OVER 2005 purchase price... There are some mighty big suckers out there.
 
[quote author="irvine123" date=1212571504]Awgee, do you think if I were to buy a $ 1 mm home in woodbury/ HQ / NP / NW at today's market price, it will go to $600K any time soon? thanks...</blockquote>
Anytime soon?


Sorry, I dunno. How soon are you asking. But, two things. I sure as heck would not take the chance that they won't until there is a history of price appreciation. And I will speculate that So Cal real estate will lose another 40% in real dollars vs nominal dollars within the next four years.
 
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/42-Secret-Gdn-92620/home/5931476



42 Secret Garden.



Prices at $335 range is starting to look like a decent price for this newer area of Northwood II. Then Again, I don't think we are close to the bottom yet. I am suprised it has been on the market for 253 days at $335 a square foot? Is house located on a bad lot? I am starting to like what i am seeing with the low $300s in Northwood II. $250 - $270 per square foot would be very ideal for this location. I like that fact this area feeds into Nrothwood High.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1212568454]Just guessing at the thoughts of the present day knifecatchers:
<em>"Prices have come down and they probably won't come down much more. Better to jump in now than take the risk of the market turning up. Best to buy now while interest rates are low and we can afford the house we want. I do not mind if the home we buy now depreciates by another 5% or 10%. We are buying for the long term. And prices can not go down by more than another 10%."</em>
</blockquote>


Awgee, have you been having coffee with my husband? With the exception of the last line, that's exactly what he's saying. That, and "With a Democratic President and a Democratic Congress, who knows what's going to happen with the foreclosures, loan extensions, etc."
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1212573392]http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/42-Secret-Gdn-92620/home/5931476



42 Secret Garden.



Prices at $335 range is starting to look like a decent price for this newer area of Northwood II. Then Again, I don't think we are close to the bottom yet. I am suprised it has been on the market for 253 days at $335 a square foot? Is house located on a bad lot? I am starting to like what i am seeing with the low $300s in Northwood II. $250 - $270 per square foot would be very ideal for this location. I like that fact this area feeds into Nrothwood High.</blockquote>


For the most part, lots in NW II suck. This one sucks especially so. It backs to Trabuco and has zero backyard, i.e. the backyard is as big as mine and I have a 1600sf detached condo.



This particular house is a short. I bumped into the realtor on this listing at an open house in Tustin this past weekend and chatted with her about it. This very well could end up back at the bank. The same house a few doors up the street has been listed at $980K for forever.



I have trolled about NW II recently and find nothing redeeming about it. It's small, square, generally without character and life. It feels like a neighborhood that was just thrown down on some empty land between here and there... Actually, that is probably the case. IMO it will not hold up like Woodbury, NP, QH, etc. as they are large master-planned communities vs. a simple collection of different sized homes laid out in a small grid pattern.
 
[quote author="lendingmaestro" date=1212572715]$10 bucks says when we pull the title info it shows an Asian surname.</blockquote>


That is probably true for most every purchase nowadays, extreme knife catcher or not...
 
IPOP,



Northwood II is that bad huh? Man, the problem with me when I search for homes is that I am looking at the high school there more than the lot. I really believe 10 years from now Northwood High will the #1 high school of Irvine beating out Uni High. Northwood High is just too new right now which is why it is ranked below Uni and Irvine High in this year's ranking by OCRegister. It seems like my choices are seriously limited if I want to a house that feeds into Northwood High. Portola Springs' HOA and taxes are just ridiculously high, and you are telling me Northwood II sucks. I just really digged their lower taxes and Secret Garden's $120 HOA. My only choice now seems to be Orchard Hills, Is there any other neighborhood I am forgetting here that feeds into Northwood High except for Northwood I?



$10 bucks says when we pull the title info it shows an Asian surname.



Yup, these Crazy Rich Foreign Asians got money to burn that is pushing up the demand side. I'll bet you another $10 bucks that majority of those $1,000,000 100% Cash Down Home Purchases are Foreign "Rich" Chinese and Korean buyers. We, Americans cannot possibly have this amount of cash in our banks.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1212578419]IPOP,



Northwood II is that bad huh? Man, the problem with me when I search for homes is that I am looking at the high school there more than the lot. I really believe 10 years from now Northwood High will the #1 high school of Irvine beating out Uni High. Northwood High is just too new right now which is why it is ranked below Uni and Irvine High in this year's ranking by OCRegister. It seems like my choices are seriously limited if I want to a house that feeds into Northwood High. Portola Springs' HOA and taxes are just ridiculously high, and you are telling me Northwood II sucks. I just really digged their lower taxes and Secret Garden's $120 HOA. My only choice now seems to be Orchard Hills, Is there any other neighborhood I am forgetting here that feeds into Northwood High except for Northwood I?



$10 bucks says when we pull the title info it shows an Asian surname.



Yup, these Crazy Rich Foreign Asians got money to burn that is pushing up the demand side. I'll bet you another $10 bucks that majority of those $1,000,000 100% Cash Down Home Purchases are Foreign "Rich" Chinese and Korean buyers. We, Americans cannot possibly have this amount of cash in our banks.</blockquote>


Northwood Pointe Panda. It rocks above all Northwood's...
 
Someone's realtor needs to be shot...



On the same day, 5/31, two properties in Northpark close. One sells for 17% over mid 2003 price, a nice 2004 rollback, and the other for 7% OVER mid 2005 purchase price.



How does this happen in the same neighborhood at the same time?! Someone has to be very stupid or very bad at their job for this to come to pass.



<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">Updated IPO-Shiller</a>
 
IPOP,



Northwood Pointe is an older neighborhood right? Built in the 90s? I sort of like newer homes built from 2000 and beyond, but i'll definitely look into it.



Hey I was curious if you don't mind sharing what your purchase price was for your 1600 detached condo back in 2001. The "Casalon" townhome that I almost bought back in 2003 was 1695 square feet 3bed/3bath was on the market for $491,900. I am assuming your purchase price for the detached condo was in the low 400s or high 300s right?



Thanks for the tip on Northwood Pointe.
 
the original northwood was built in the late 70s and wasn't developed by TIC so there is no HOA. it's basically centered around bryan and yale, built around a continous loop street (although diff parts of the street are named differently -- northwood, southwood, westwood, eastwood)



northwood pointe started in the late 90s is an area around portola parkway and culver, north of hicks canyon. basically across the street from northwood HS and orchard hills on portola.

<img src="http://www.northwoodpointeirvine.com/NP_Images/NorthwoodPointe_map_detail.jpg" alt="" />

<em>edit: <a href="http://northwoodpointeirvine.com/">http://northwoodpointeirvine.com</a>/</em>



northwood II is a small gated section next to the old northwood, along jeffery right across the street from woodbury. most of these were built in the last few yrs.



although northwood II is new, it's not designed to be an independent village so it's just sort of tacked on to old northwood. imo the appeal of northwood pointe is it has a distinct theme. lots of mature trees and alpine-like feel, and right along the very cool hicks canyon trail.
 
IPO: Northwood Pointe Panda. For the most part, lots in NW II suck. This one sucks especially so. It backs to Trabuco and has zero backyard, i.e. the backyard is as big as mine and I have a 1600sf detached condo. It rocks above all Northwood?s?



"I Like BIG LOTS and I CANNOT LIE." "Sir Mix a LOT" - I'm definitely going to do more research on Northwood Point.



Thanks for the map ACPME.
 
[quote author="acpme" date=1212617332]the original northwood was built in the late 70s and wasn't developed by TIC so there is no HOA. it's basically centered around bryan and yale, built around a continous loop street (although diff parts of the street are named differently -- northwood, southwood, westwood, eastwood)



northwood pointe started in the late 90s is an area around portola parkway and culver, north of hicks canyon. basically across the street from northwood HS and orchard hills on portola.

<img src="http://www.northwoodpointeirvine.com/NP_Images/NorthwoodPointe_map_detail.jpg" alt="" />



northwood II is a small gated section next to the old northwood, along jeffery right across the street from woodbury. most of these were built in the last few yrs.



although northwood II is new, it's not designed to be an independent village so it's just sort of tacked on to old northwood. imo the appeal of northwood pointe is it has a distinct theme. lots of mature trees and alpine-like feel, and right along the very cool hicks canyon trail.</blockquote>


You had better cred Mike Dunn acpme or he'll sue you!
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1212615447]IPOP,



Northwood Pointe is an older neighborhood right? Built in the 90s? I sort of like newer homes built from 2000 and beyond, but i'll definitely look into it.



Hey I was curious if you don't mind sharing what your purchase price was for your 1600 detached condo back in 2001. The "Casalon" townhome that I almost bought back in 2003 was 1695 square feet 3bed/3bath was on the market for $491,900. I am assuming your purchase price for the detached condo was in the low 400s or high 300s right?



Thanks for the tip on Northwood Pointe.</blockquote>


$335K, July 2001 close, 1622 3/2.5 in Cal Pac's Wisteria development. That was without flooring downstairs though. I had Home Depot do my laminate. After the Pergo, landscaping, built-in office, granite, crown, closet organizers, etc. my all-in is around $365K or so.



With still a $200K gain after 22% drop from peak and monthly housing expense far less than rent for seven years now, I'm very lucky to have purchased when I did... I thought prices were exorbitant back then. We could have bought a 2000sf place in West Irvine's Ivywood but passed because it was $450K. I still kick myself for that one.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1212615447]IPOP,



Northwood Pointe is an older neighborhood right? Built in the 90s? I sort of like newer homes built from 2000 and beyond, but i'll definitely look into it.



Hey I was curious if you don't mind sharing what your purchase price was for your 1600 detached condo back in 2001. The "Casalon" townhome that I almost bought back in 2003 was 1695 square feet 3bed/3bath was on the market for $491,900. I am assuming your purchase price for the detached condo was in the low 400s or high 300s right?



Thanks for the tip on Northwood Pointe.</blockquote>


<a href="http://northwoodpointeirvine.com/">Dunn's NW Pointe site</a>
 
Ipop,



I see that 41 New Dawn got taken down.

Rosegate?s holding up rather well.

It will be interesting to see the final number.

1.8M would mean an ?04 roll back.

Looked at 1 New Dawn last year.

Incredible house but the location was poor right by the front gate backed up Meadowood.

This location is an upgrade but lacks privacy.

The paved trail has a lot of walkers and runners, I personally don?t mind but other?s may.
 
$335K, July 2001 close, 1622 3/2.5 in Cal Pac?s Wisteria development. That was without flooring downstairs though. I had Home Depot do my laminate. After the Pergo, landscaping, built-in office, granite, crown, closet organizers, etc. my all-in is around $365K or so.



With still a $200K gain after 22% drop from peak and monthly housing expense far less than rent for seven years now, I?m very lucky to have purchased when I did? I thought prices were exorbitant back then. We could have bought a 2000sf place in West Irvine?s Ivywood but passed because it was $450K. I still kick myself for that one.



Wow! even if Irvine completely bottoms out I don't it will ever get to the $200/$225 level. You are indeed very lucky. You condo is indeed right in the middle of orange county home prices of $360,080 back in 2001.



IPOP, I can definitely see how you can pull $150k or more equity out of this home if you sold now. Man only if you convinced Mrs. IPO to sell in 2006, lock in that $350,000 equity and rented that 2000 square feet Ivywood in West Irvine, and roll that down payment into your $1M home. How sweet would that be.



Did you ever "for a second" consider to put your condo on the market for $700k back in 2006?
 
Nice start to June closings, with deeper rollback prices.



3100sf Cantara former model sold for $880K...



<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">Updated IPO-Shiller</a>
 
Realty Trac now shows 701 properties in some state of foreclosure (NOD, Auction, or already Bank Owned.) That's a lot folks. I see a considerable amount of units in Northpark on here, but surprise surprise, when I ride my bike around I see NO for sale signs. NO bank owned signs. Not good.



A quick search of realtor.com shows 991 units for sale!



<span style="font-size: 16px;">WTF!?</span>



This can only mean two things, and neither one of them is good.



1.) 701 of the 991 units for sale are distressed properties. 70.7% of listed properties are distressed. We know that this number is way off. So what gives.......



2.) The number of units listed on MLS does NOT INCLUDE THE MAJORITY of distressed properties. Check out this MAY info from ocrealestate blog...



<em>Currently there are 840 Active properties listed for sale in Irvine, CA., of which 414 are attached Condos, and 426 are detached single family homes. Of these 840 homes and condos for sale, 152 are Short Sales listed for sale, which represents 18% of the total inventory. 11 of these properties Active for sale are Bank Owner Foreclosures which represent just 1.3% of the total inventory of homes and condos for sale in Irvine, Ca. </em>



<span style="font-size: 15px;">Only 11 properties that are bank owned are active listings!!! OMG!</span>



In April there were 146 closed sales in Irvine, CA which was LESS than March even though this thread makes it seem as sales are picking up. Let's assume for sake of argument that 150 units sold in May. Even if you just use the 991 listed unit number, the months of supply stand at 6 1/2 months. If we include only half the "shadow inventory" 350 + 991 = 1,341 properties and a months supply of 9 months. If we include both numbers into a total of 1,691 units for sale the months of supply is nearly 12 months! My gut feeling is that we are somewhere between 9 and 12 months supply right now in Irvine--the city that is immune from the housing bust.
 
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