What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
finally you post a decent pic



so which one gets your vote ten?



I'm leaning towards 3rd from left. 2nd from right has potential but I have a feeling she doesnt look as cute close up



Ipo, is your site selected escrows or all escrows in Irvine/Tustin Ranch? If its selective, how do you decide what you put up there? It just seems to me there are very few condos on there so I wasn't sure if they just aren't selling or you are omiting them since they are less desireable.
 
There has been a lot of discussion about inventory on this thread. I thought it might be useful to know that on 5-13-2008 in Irvine there are 465 properties in some stage of foreclosure according to foreclosureradar.com. As I look through these properties, most of them are not on the MLS.
 
ten and ipo, what do you think about the aprilia shiver? I'm thinking about that or a ducati 696 or triumph street triple, and maybe even the slower-paced triumph bonneville or moto guzzi breva 750. the orchard hills apartments have extended length two car garages that can hold two cars and two motorcycles with space left over for plenty of storage. is there an aprilia dealer in the irvine area?
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1210761325]There has been a lot of discussion about inventory on this thread. I thought it might be useful to know that on 5-13-2008 in Irvine there are 465 properties in some stage of foreclosure according to foreclosureradar.com. As I look through these properties, most of them are not on the MLS.</blockquote>


I am noticing this as well. The VAST majority of REO properties are NOT listed on MLS.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1210721215]

Yeah I know, extremely hard to compete with.

Look on the bright side Ipop; at least they?re willing to endorse your site.

I tried bro, but the best IHB had to offer was Cayci showing off her latest Mrs. Doubtfire undies.</blockquote>


I always want to be treated as an equal, so ten I thank you for bashing me with the same kind of so-absurd-they-are-actually-funny insults that the guys get. I really do appreciate it.



As an aside, I was at a grad party for the USC business school last weekend. At first people were acting lame and just huddling by the bar and not dancing or mingling much. I thought "I so get to bug tenmagnet about his cronies being lame at a party" but then folks started to loosen up a bit and it ended up being a good time.
 
[quote author="fumbling" date=1210762324]ten and ipo, what do you think about the aprilia shiver? I'm thinking about that or a ducati 696 or triumph street triple, and maybe even the slower-paced triumph bonneville or moto guzzi breva 750. the orchard hills apartments have extended length two car garages that can hold two cars and two motorcycles with space left over for plenty of storage. is there an aprilia dealer in the irvine area?</blockquote>


For me, its mostly about the ride and feel of the bike. Never been near a Shiver before. I've always loved the styling of Monsters. I think the 696 is better looking than the Shiver. More simple, raw, powerful. Shiver is heavier and definitely taller in terms of riding position. Personally I like a lower riding position as I feel more connected to the road. You have to service the hell out of Ducs but can usually find a number of dealers. Spectrum sells Aprilia. I think Hahm does too...



Most Triumph bikes are too retro/classic styled for my taste. The Triple looks pretty cool though. Bonnevilles are for grandpas...
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1210761325]There has been a lot of discussion about inventory on this thread. I thought it might be useful to know that on 5-13-2008 in Irvine there are 465 properties in some stage of foreclosure according to foreclosureradar.com. As I look through these properties, most of them are not on the MLS.</blockquote>


Those properties can't come fast enough... Inventory is 250 units below last year on the same date. Almost 22% less. We could be starting the summer with 30-35% less inventory with all the deals in the pipeline.



Normally during May, much of the peak summer inventory is coming online. By June 1st, most of it is already out there typically... Where's it all at?
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1210761325]There has been a lot of discussion about inventory on this thread. I thought it might be useful to know that on 5-13-2008 in Irvine there are 465 properties in some stage of foreclosure according to foreclosureradar.com. As I look through these properties, most of them are not on the MLS.</blockquote><p>

IR - This and other points you bring up are irrelevant. Why do you persist in publishing drivel? I have it on good authority that the most important factors for future price prediction are month to month escrow openings and month to month inventory decreases.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1210800742][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1210761325]There has been a lot of discussion about inventory on this thread. I thought it might be useful to know that on 5-13-2008 in Irvine there are 465 properties in some stage of foreclosure according to foreclosureradar.com. As I look through these properties, most of them are not on the MLS.</blockquote><p>

IR - This and other points you bring up are irrelevant. Why do you persist in publishing drivel? I have it on good authority that the most important factors for future price prediction are month to month escrow openings and month to month inventory decreases.</blockquote>


LOL! Would your "good authority" be Gary Watts?
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1210801686][quote author="awgee" date=1210800742][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1210761325]There has been a lot of discussion about inventory on this thread. I thought it might be useful to know that on 5-13-2008 in Irvine there are 465 properties in some stage of foreclosure according to foreclosureradar.com. As I look through these properties, most of them are not on the MLS.</blockquote><p>

IR - This and other points you bring up are irrelevant. Why do you persist in publishing drivel? I have it on good authority that the most important factors for future price prediction are month to month escrow openings and month to month inventory decreases.</blockquote>


LOL! Would your "good authority" be Gary Watts?</blockquote>


Nah, not Watts, awgee just loves to take pot shots at me... No idea why, maybe he's just one of those bitter old dudes that likes to poke at people.



Did you notice awgee that May closing prices in Irvine have been higher in general than April's? OMG how could that happen with all the shadow inventory?! The sample size is probably still too small to be relevant though. We'll see as the month progresses. Somehow DQ's OC median price has been holding steady or rising since late March. Must be some kind of error in those numbers... I thought prices were in a freefall?!



Foreclosures have been flowing freely through the system for the last few months and people have been buying them up at mid 2004 prices. Maybe there won't be enough shadow demand to keep up with the shadow inventory in future, but as inventory in Irvine hasn't been growing, it sure seems like demand has been equaling or exceeding supply of late. Even if half the 465 Irvine distressed properties hit the market today all at once, inventory wouldn't be any higher than it was last year at the same time.
 
[quote author="lendingmaestro" date=1210763884][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1210761325]There has been a lot of discussion about inventory on this thread. I thought it might be useful to know that on 5-13-2008 in Irvine there are 465 properties in some stage of foreclosure according to foreclosureradar.com. As I look through these properties, most of them are not on the MLS.</blockquote>


I am noticing this as well. The VAST majority of REO properties are NOT listed on MLS.</blockquote>


"Shadow Inventory" is the technical term, I believe.



Lots and lots of that out there right now. I'm not sure if the banksare just overwhelmed, or if they are holding it for a purpose... can't see much point in that, since it keeps going down. If so, they're gambling and losing their shirts.



Maybe they think that flooding the market with properties which will be competing AGAINST other properties they also own is worse than holding and selling 1 at a time? That might make sense to a point. However, when there are 1000's being held with prices plummeting, there has to be a breaking point...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1210809498][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1210801686][quote author="awgee" date=1210800742][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1210761325]There has been a lot of discussion about inventory on this thread. I thought it might be useful to know that on 5-13-2008 in Irvine there are 465 properties in some stage of foreclosure according to foreclosureradar.com. As I look through these properties, most of them are not on the MLS.</blockquote><p>

IR - This and other points you bring up are irrelevant. Why do you persist in publishing drivel? I have it on good authority that the most important factors for future price prediction are month to month escrow openings and month to month inventory decreases.</blockquote>


LOL! Would your "good authority" be Gary Watts?</blockquote>


Nah, not Watts, awgee just loves to take pot shots at me... No idea why, maybe he's just one of those bitter old dudes that likes to poke at people.



Did you notice awgee that May closing prices in Irvine have been higher in general than April's? OMG how could that happen with all the shadow inventory?! The sample size is probably still too small to be relevant though. We'll see as the month progresses. Somehow DQ's OC median price has been holding steady or rising since late March. Must be some kind of error in those numbers... I thought prices were in a freefall?!



Foreclosures have been flowing freely through the system for the last few months and people have been buying them up at mid 2004 prices. Maybe there won't be enough shadow demand to keep up with the shadow inventory in future, but as inventory in Irvine hasn't been growing, it sure seems like demand has been equaling or exceeding supply of late. Even if half the 465 Irvine distressed properties hit the market today all at once, inventory wouldn't be any higher than it was last year at the same time.</blockquote>


Perhaps you are taking a somewhat myopic view. Prices may very well level out or even rise for a month or two. The point that masterofdamoney, lendingmaestro and I are trying to make is that there is a large amount of must-sell inventory waiting in the wings. At some point this inventory will enter the market, and it will be sold. Also, this inventory is growing each month, so it seems unlikely that current absorption rates are going to soak up this inventory without further price reductions. Go to foreclosureradar.com and see for yourself. I believe you can see what is out there without a subscription, you just can't get any property details. Just from the addresses, you can cross-check with Redfin and see that the vast majority are not for sale.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1210812273][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1210809498][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1210801686][quote author="awgee" date=1210800742][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1210761325]There has been a lot of discussion about inventory on this thread. I thought it might be useful to know that on 5-13-2008 in Irvine there are 465 properties in some stage of foreclosure according to foreclosureradar.com. As I look through these properties, most of them are not on the MLS.</blockquote><p>

IR - This and other points you bring up are irrelevant. Why do you persist in publishing drivel? I have it on good authority that the most important factors for future price prediction are month to month escrow openings and month to month inventory decreases.</blockquote>


LOL! Would your "good authority" be Gary Watts?</blockquote>


Nah, not Watts, awgee just loves to take pot shots at me... No idea why, maybe he's just one of those bitter old dudes that likes to poke at people.



Did you notice awgee that May closing prices in Irvine have been higher in general than April's? OMG how could that happen with all the shadow inventory?! The sample size is probably still too small to be relevant though. We'll see as the month progresses. Somehow DQ's OC median price has been holding steady or rising since late March. Must be some kind of error in those numbers... I thought prices were in a freefall?!



Foreclosures have been flowing freely through the system for the last few months and people have been buying them up at mid 2004 prices. Maybe there won't be enough shadow demand to keep up with the shadow inventory in future, but as inventory in Irvine hasn't been growing, it sure seems like demand has been equaling or exceeding supply of late. Even if half the 465 Irvine distressed properties hit the market today all at once, inventory wouldn't be any higher than it was last year at the same time.</blockquote>


Perhaps you are taking a somewhat myopic view. Prices may very well level out or even rise for a month or two. The point that masterofdamoney, lendingmaestro and I are trying to make is that there is a large amount of must-sell inventory waiting in the wings. At some point this inventory will enter the market, and it will be sold. Also, this inventory is growing each month, so it seems unlikely that current absorption rates are going to soak up this inventory without further price reductions. Go to foreclosureradar.com and see for yourself. I believe you can see what is out there without a subscription, you just can't get any property details. Just from the addresses, you can cross-check with Redfin and see that the vast majority are not for sale.</blockquote>


That's correct... think about the NOD numbers released today. Almost 45,000 new NOD's in California in April. And the 'cured before foreclosure' rate is dropping like a rock... so the VAST majority of those will become REO's in 4-5 months. 22,000+ became REO's in April... So you will probably see DOUBLE the amount of REO's in August-September than we just saw in April... and every month from here to there will be STEADY INCREASES in REO's over April. It is UNAVOIDABLE.



There are tons of REO's sitting in wait, and EXPONENTIALLY MORE COMING. <span style="color: red;">We will hit a point THIS YEAR where there are 100,000 NEW REO's going to market EVERY TWO MONTHS in CA. </span> What do you think that's going to do to prices? LOL.



People will be lucky if the rollbacks stop at 2000 price levels. I personally think we might hit mid 90's price points. I have a completely different viewpoint, however, having to turn down dozens of people every week that really want to buy a home... because they DON'T MAKE ENOUGH MONEY TO AFFORD IT. These are the only buyers that are left. When prices drop so that their average incomes CAN AFFORD AND QUALIFY for financing on the homes, they will be able to buy. Therefore, only 2 things can happen that will prevent prices from reverting to pre-2000 prices:



1. The banks radically open up their guidelines, make money more available at higher DTI's and with less downpayments...

2. Peoples wages dramatically rise (double)



Without 1 of those 2 occuring, #3 occurs:



3. Prices fall to the point where people with average incomes can afford them



Done and done.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1210816550]Interesting read on the NOD/price correlation:



http://www.californiahousingforecast.com/commentary/2007/4/7/nods-dont-affect-prices.html</blockquote>


I remember that thread. I commented on it:







I think you are completely wrong with your cause and effect analysis in this post.



First, the initial price drop in a speculative bubble is caused by buyer exhaustion - there are simply no buyers left to buy. Volume drops way off and prices begin to fall. This is the beginning causal event.



Second, the initial price drop is putting pressure on overextended homebuyers who purchased with suicide loan terms. It is the loan terms and payments when coupled with the initial price drops that causes the NOD's and REO's to rise.



Third, and this is where you miss Rich's point, once the downward spiral gets going, the REOs do drive prices lower. this in turn creates more REOs which drive prices even lower until we reach the bottom. You have identified half of the feedback loop without acknowledging the other half.



You are correct that REOs are lagging, so it is of little value as a forecasting tool; however, since NOD's lead to REOs, NODs are a great forecasting tool.



You have identified one of the two conditions (lower prices causing NODs) which starts the process in motion. You have failed to identify the cause of the initial price declines (buyer exhaustion), and you have failed to recognize the chain of events is part of a feedback loop which includes REOs driving prices lower. In short, you have not debunked anything relative to the importance of REOs in the uncoming price declines.



Further, "I wonder how Rich Toscano drew the conclusion that rising NODs are must-sell inventory which in turn means sellers with lower prices." He makes no such claim. He merely points out that NODs lead REOs which are, in fact, must-sell inventory; therefore, the ratio of NODs to inventory are a good leading indicator, not because of their direct causal relationship, but because they accurately forecast the REO to total inventory relationship which is the causal relationship driving prices lower.
 
Considering that 95% of NOD's in CA now DO NOT get cured, I'd say that NOD's are must-sells. If someone is now 120 days late and owes 15k+ in arrears, the only they are getting that money is by selling the home.
 
[quote author="lendingmaestro" date=1210819816]Considering that 95% of NOD's in CA now DO NOT get cured, I'd say that NOD's are must-sells. If someone is now 120 days late and owes 15k+ in arrears, the only they are getting that money is by selling the home.</blockquote>


lm - Where do you get the info regarding % of NODs being cured/removed? Can't many of them be filed for something as trivial as missing HOA dues? I'd also like to know where to go for #'s on how much is actually owed. Would be a good/useful tidbit to have at my disposal. Thx in advance.
 
[quote author="lendingmaestro" date=1210819816]Considering that 95% of NOD's in CA now DO NOT get cured, I'd say that NOD's are must-sells. If someone is now 120 days late and owes 15k+ in arrears, the only they are getting that money is by selling the home.</blockquote>


Yeah, I'm curious to know where that 95% comes from... Here are the DQ number since the beginning for 2006 as posted on Lanser:



<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/reorate.pdf">REO Rate</a>



Maestro, are you actually suggesting there are over 18,000 uncured NODs still floating around in the system that will go REO evenutally?



Assuming uncured NODs go REO five months after the NOD filing month, the uncured rate in early 2006 was around 5-10%. That escalated to 40-45% by the end of 2007 and appears to be running around 65% most recently... I can't see anything close to 95% in these figures.
 
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