What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
<p>Hey ten. I owe you a buck... Bella Rosa closed. Right between your guess of $1.075M and mine of $1.095M.</p>

<p>Added some additional closing prices as well. Wow, some very rich people are still buying in Turtle Rock... $570 per sf on one and closed it in two weeks!</p>

<p>You want to go double-or-nothing on Parma ten? I get over/under this time though!</p>
 
<p class="MsoNormal">Hey Ipop,</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">There’s been quite a bit of activity lately. Briefly glanced at your update when I arrived at work this morning. Thanks for the updates and all the information you’ve provided. My guess is that Parma will go for around $845K. Valentine’s Day is this week so between the flowers, gifts, dinner at French 75, there’s not much $$$ to go around so double or nothing sounds right.</p>
 
I'll take the over on Parma ten. Need to make that buck back if I'm gonna buy something! I think Parma goes for more like $860-865K.
 
Holy cow! 570 a sq ft for a crappy turtle rock house? Without a view???? I hate to say it, but maybe the 'bottom' was a few weeks ago. *sigh*
 
The person that paid 570 PSF is going to wake up with a wicked hangover in about 2 years....ouch. P.T Barnum's suckers are still being born every minute.
 
<p>Found a few more escrows I missed after Homeseekers finished re-synching with SoCal MLS. </p>

<p>In my search parameter, there have been 2 escrows per day so far in February, which is about double the rate of January... We're definitely getting a little bounce here from the first round of bargain shoppers. </p>
 
ipoplaya- does this mean that this round of buyer is buying it 5-10% off of peak? and thus paving the way for the next round of buyer who will buy for 5-10% discount on top of that? until we reach the bottom?
 
I think buyers today are paying more like 15% or so off peak jbatz. I'd think discounting will be more gradual/steady going forward, assuming mortgage rates stay low. People will buy all the way down, which is probably another 20-25% off peak pricing. That's just a wild guess though. No one really knows what will happen. Too many factors.
 
<p>From Lansners blog:</p>

<p>Pacific West Association of Realtors reports that in January ...</p>

<p>Brokers sold 931 existing OC residences worth $656.5 million through the industry's MLS sale-tracking system. </p>

<p>That's a 41% drop in transaction volume and a 44% decline in dollars flowing through the broker-based network. </p>

<p>The average sales price was $705,143 in January, down 5% in a year.</p>
 
"I think buyers today are paying more like 15% or so off peak jbatz"



Although it really depends on each track, I think in general you are right. Here are the facts:



In Woodbury's Villa Rose track: plan 3 right now is selling about 12% off the peak - interesting to note that 12% was reached last July, and since there there hasn't been change of final selling price, though the builder is throwing upgrades. Bacially, it has been same money just for more "stuff".



In Woodbury's Mille Fleur track, all plans were sold right about 15% off the peak price by the builder. Some particular owners probably have seen a lot more equity lose due to the large amount of upgrades they put in. This track is sold out right now. They closed 18 homes since late July including three models homes.



In VOC's Lantana track, I think plans have been sold about 25% off the peak price.
 
<a href="http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/02/dataquick-socal-sales-at-record-low.html">DataQuick: SoCal Sales at Record Low</a>

<p>From DataQuick: <a href="http://www.dqnews.com/RRSCA0208.shtm">Southland home sales slowest for any month in 20 years</a></p>

Southern California home sales dipped below 10,000 transactions for the first time in more than 20 years last month as most potential buyers and sellers appear to be waiting out market turbulence, a real estate information service reported.





A total of 9,983 new and resale houses and condos were sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in January. That was down 24.6 percent from 13,240 for the previous month, and down 44.9 percent from 18,128 for January last year, according to DataQuick Information Systems.





Last month's sales total was the lowest for any month in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. Since September, sales for each calendar month were a record low for that particular month.


...


The median price paid for a Southland home was $415,000 last month, the lowest since $414,000 in January 2005. Last month's median was down 2.4 percent from December's $425,000, and 14.4 percent below $485,000 for January 2007.





Last month's median was 17.8 percent below the $505,000 peak reached last spring and summer. While the steep decline in median sales price does reflect a drop in prices, it also reflects significant shifts in the types of homes selling. Particularly noticeable is a drop-off in sales of more expensive homes financed with "jumbo" mortgages.


...


Foreclosure activity is at record levels, financing with adjustable-rate mortgages or with multiple mortgages has dropped sharply.
 
<p>Did you notice awgee that the sales differential as a percent of average sales for the month has been improving since the summer? Will you do a similar post come this August and September when sales volumes are actually up year-over-year? The lows in terms of sales volumes vs. previous year are behind us IMHO. It will go down that this past late summer timeframe was the bottom in terms of those numbers... None of that means that the inventory situation will be better or worse though and that will be what drives this correction. </p>
 
ipop,



The increase in sales in comparison to average sales goes to show that drop in sales price is having an effect in terms of pulling some potential buyers into the market. I doubt though that the number of such buyers is going to be increasing considering the tightening credit situation and overall pessimism about the market direction.
 
<p>You would think with that being the case, prices would come down. So far I’ve yet to see anything. I’m looking to buy in Northpark, 22 Malibu came on the market yesterday @ $1.37M. Yet to see any significant declines in that area. </p>
 
<p>People will talk all day long about sales volumes ten, but it's really about inventory vs. sales. There are 944 homes on the market today in Irvine. Even for the slowest sales month since the summer, that is eight months inventory. That isn't exactly a massive inventory overhang... We only have 100 more homes on the market today in Irvine than we did last year at this time - around 12% increase year-over-year. Again, not really a price-crushing increase..</p>

<p>Look at the housingtracker stats:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/LosAngeles-LongBeach-SantaAna/SantaAna-Anaheim-Irvine">http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/LosAngeles-LongBeach-SantaAna/SantaAna-Anaheim-Irvine</a></p>

<p>The pace of price drops has slowed considerably of late. The 75th percent of median has barely moved since the end of the year... IMO, this is because buyer interest, buyer traffic, and escrow activity has picked up. The big discounting toward the end of year came when Irvine's months inventory figure was more like 9 to 10 months worth. For more big price dropping like that, we need more inventory or lower sales volumes. Hopefully graph is right and the REO inventory explodes the inventory count sooner rather than later.</p>
 
<p>ipoplaya - those stats are for asking prices. What's a lot more interesting is the selling prices.</p>

<p>Per asking prices ... you'd imagine that the more motivated sellers had their places listed over the hollidays in the last months of 2007. Now that it's spring, the more hopeful, spring is here, time to relist as demand picks up crowd is back. </p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>Foreclosures & defaults in OC on the rise</p>

<p><a href="http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2008/02/13/defaults-foreclosures-reached-record-highs-in-january/">http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2008/02/13/defaults-foreclosures-reached-record-highs-in-january/</a></p>

<p>









<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" align="center"><strong>Year</strong></p>





<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" align="center"><strong>2008</strong></p>





<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" align="center"><strong>2007</strong></p>





<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" align="center"><strong>2006</strong></p>









<p class="MsoNormal">Month</p>





<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-ALIGN: right" align="right">Defaults</p>





<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-ALIGN: right" align="right">Forec.</p>





<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-ALIGN: right" align="right">Defaults</p>





<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-ALIGN: right" align="right">Forec.</p>





<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-ALIGN: right" align="right">Defaults</p>





<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-ALIGN: right" align="right">Forec.</p>









<p class="MsoNormal">January</p>





<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-ALIGN: right" align="right">2,352</p>





<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-ALIGN: right" align="right">802</p>





<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-ALIGN: right" align="right">847</p>





<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-ALIGN: right" align="right">153</p>





<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-ALIGN: right" align="right">384</p>





<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-ALIGN: right" align="right">25</p>









</p>
 
Yes anon, I realize housingtracker are list prices. That is what my post was in response too... The relative lack of significant list price drops on the high-end, especially of late.
 
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