What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
just paid my single family home pt bill not long ago....total tax / purchase price = 1.423%.



I know homes more than 400K less than mine ( based on purchase price) at Tustin field have a higher tax dollar number than mine. So it all depends on where. When builders drop price on their house let's say by 300K, mello roos doens't change, that makes the % very high.
 
yeah, woodbury was where I was looking. I'd prefer quail hill but it seems like the drop is going to be slower there (and it has further to fall). Anyone know what the property taxes are for detached condos in quail hill are?
 
<p>"in woodbury the total including mello roos is 1.8%!"</p>

<p>acpme, you knew this was coming...</p>

<p><a href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1436772">http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1436772</a></p>

<p>Property tax including mello roos at list price is about 1.68%. At current roll value, it's around 1.6%. This condo is in Woodbury.</p>

<p> <a href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1425174">http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1425174</a></p>

<p>This one, also in Woodbury, less than 1.6% at currently assessed value.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=588663">http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1163873</a></p>

<p>Big Woodbury house, 1.3% total rate (mello roos included) at roll value. Around 1.46% at current list price.</p>

<p>Nowhere in Woodbury can I find an effective 1.8% tax rate. </p>

<p>First, effective rates with mello roos are going to vary considerably by development and even by tract within a particular development. VoC is great high, I'd say 1.7-1.8% at today's prices, but Northpark and Northwood Pointe would be only 1.2-1.3% as they have comparatively lower mello roos. </p>

<p>Take this one as an example:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1326100">http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1326100</a></p>

<p>Tax rate with mellos is only 1.22% at roll value. At list price it would be 1.28%.</p>

<p>123's benchmark of 1.5% is probably a good number for talking about all of Irvine. That actually might be a smidge high considering that the rates in Brady Bunch NW, El Camino, Woodbridge, etc., where there are lots of homes, would be down in the 1.1% range.</p>
 
<p>If you had to choose among these cities, where would you live?</p>

<p>Orange, Irvine, Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, and Garden Grove.</p>
 
ok final comments and i'm done with this thread because its pointless. let's take a look at what you commented previously...


<em>


"I could give a crap what gets posted here, unless someone like acpme is trying to tell me my own personal calcs for my own personal purchase decision are wrong... Property taxes at 1.8%, still makes me cringe when I see that."</em>


<em>


</em>apparently only personal experiences are relevant, so in that case i'm telling you now... my property taxes for my property in my neighborhood of woodbury are 1.8%. that is the rate for the majority of homeowners living in woodbury, voc, and other new neighborhoods who purchased over the last few yrs and have seen one or two assessment increases. and yes it makes me cringe too, but that's another story. bottom line: 1.8% tax rates exist in woodbury.





as someone that doesn't like others nitpicking at your calcs, you certainly don't mind nitpicking other people's. now i know what you're going to say -- the tax rates aren't 1.8% anymore for a new buyer because of lower prices. fine... very good, you got a point there. but my point, and what others are also trying to say, is the bigger picture about pricing and affordability. you're the only one here that seems to think its necessary to respond (often condescendly) because someone calculated a monthly pymt differently than you by $200, or the tax rate differently by 12 basis points, or counted 3 closed sales when you counted 4, etc. geez, let it go.





housing is not affordable, tax rates are high, and sales are slow. i'll leave it at that.
 
As the prices go up or down, the tax base moves with it, but the mello roos does not. In Woodbury, if you bought new, in the first phase the tax would be around 1.8%. As prices go up, it goes lower, say to 1.68%. Now, when the three foreclosures get their new owner (the bank), the tax will be even higher, possibly over 2%. This argument is becoming very redundant, and it is boring me to death. Now... will some one please buy a damn house, so we can go back to talking about what is going into escrow? Please, please someone buy a house, this thread sucks with out them.





Well... one exception... <em>Well apparently, if you have blue eyes, you are related.





</em>Thanks LM, you not only scare the crap out of people about the lending industry, but now you have scared us in wondering who are really our cousins.
 
<p>So where's the bottom within the next 3 years? I say 400K. Anyone care to differ?</p>

<p>Another point, do you guys think that Irvine is an exclusive area? I don't think so. The most populous cities are Santa Ana, Anaheim, Irvine, Huntington Beach, Garden Grove, Orange, and Costa Mesa. I think that might have been the case 10 years ago when its population was 100k. But now that it's 200k, I think Irvine is a pretty popular city. I'm begining to think of where I would like to settle down for the next ten years. And I'm thinking either Irvine or Huntington. I don't think Santa Ana, Anaheim, Garden Grove, Orange, and Costa Mesa are good cities for raising a family. All those cities have underperforming schools.</p>
 
<p>"housing is not affordable, tax rates are high, and sales are slow. i'll leave it at that."</p>

<p>I'm just messing around with you acpme. No offense intended. More just a little tonug-in-creek based on our original prop tax debate.</p>

<p>I'll agree with you on all counts there acpme and we can drop it. My experience with Woodbury in only on larger properties as we looked very hard at buying there once upon a time. You very well may be right on 1.8% for smaller properites. I haven't run numbers on many of them. My friends that own in Villa Rosa are paying 1.45% tax rate on their 2006 purchase today. Based on original purchase price, that'll get to 1.8% in 15 or so years. $18K per year on a 2900sf place with a tiny lot is a tough nut to eat every year...</p>

<p>I do get a little bored without stuff on MLS to watch... It's been a pretty dry week. Only a handful of price drops too... </p>
 
<p>Looks like Bella Rosa in NP Square has gone pending:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com">www.ipoplaya.com</a></p>

<p>I'm going to guess $1.095M on closing price. Anyone want the over/under for a buck?</p>
 
<p class="MsoNormal">Ipop,</p>

<p class="MsoNormal">That’s a pretty aggressive number, considering how depressed you sounded about prices not dropping below $1M in Northwood Pointe. Glad to see your coming around. </p>

<p class="MsoNormal">I’ll go with the under, my guess is $1.075M, 100K right off the top. </p>
 
I have been reading this thread for a while, very informatic. Thanks!



Has anyone seen what was going on for the property @ 9 Bodega Bay, northpark? It is sold $810,000 on 02/01/2008. What was the asking price? was this a short sale?
 
<em>"Yup. Condos will go for 350k in 6 months and bottom at 300k. SFR's will be 500k in 6 months and bottom at 450k.</em>



<p><em>With a condo going for 300k, the mortage will be $1800. I know someone who will buy TODAY if she could get a decent condo for 300k.</em></p>

<p><em>With an SFR going for 450k, the mortgage will be $2700. I know another guy who will also buy TODAY if he could get a decent house for 450K.</em></p>

<p><em>So yes, I definitely know REAL PEOPLE who would buy without hesitation at those prices. That's why I think the bottom median will be 400k in 2-3 years.</em></p>

<p><em>I also would assume that many people on this blog will buy a condo if it costs less than 2k a month. Many would also buy a house if it costs less than 3k a month.</em></p>

<p><em>With peak of 645k and a bottom of 400k, that's a 38% drop!! End of story."</em></p>

<p>This is as close as I have seen you to agreeing with my bearish assessment. Cool -- a meeting of the minds...


</p>

<p><img src="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/03/ihb-post-irvine-market-decline-chart.jpg" alt="" />


</p>
 
Has anyone seen what was going on for the property @ 9 Bodega Bay, northpark? It is sold $810,000 on 02/01/2008. What was the asking price? was this a short sale?
 
Wow IrvineRenter... your technical analysis is very close to my "sensible" analysis. I have to say though, most prudent buyers do not necessarily chart out prices. But when a condo goes for 2k/month and a house for 3k/month... the market will normalize. And I guess we both agree that will be a 40% drop from the peak - at 400k median home value.
 
<p>I'll hang my neck out.</p>

<p>IR is too conservative on his shape of his chart. Thus, I have a defacto disagreement with hs_.</p>

<p>IR hasn't posted it, but I sincerely hope he is charting his prediction against the actual changes.</p>
 
<p>Where does the small bump up from April 08 to July 08?</p>

<p>Seasonality? And I'd like to see the reality charted against the prediction too.</p>
 
IR said 8% in 2007 and Lasner reports 10% Jan '07 to Jan '08, so IR has been - an optimist! lol



It does seem like the size of the drop is producing a panic atmosphere IR didn't factor in (and it is unprecedented). Not here in OC yet, but it's going full blast in the IE and SD. If, as ipoplaya reports, we're seeing almost no escrows right now, I think panic in OC is imminent.
 
"If you had to choose among these cities, where would you live? Orange, Irvine, Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, and Garden Grove."



I made that decision ten years ago and picked Orange, and were I to buy today I might buy the very house I'm living in now. Orange, down in the flats, is largely a walkable city. Because it's older it has a mix of buildings and people from different periods and avoids the sterile feel of much of South county. HB and CM have areas like that but they are much pricier. It has great freeway access and we also have particular commute issues which favor Orange. No kids so schools aren't an issue (but they are decent in most of OC). Up in the hills Orange is very different and has virtues and vices more like South County (mono-use zoning, more open space, more homogenous buildings and people).



That said, they're all very liveable cities if you can afford them.
 
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