What the "Dow" is happening?
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But .. but ... but ... consumer confidence highest ever ...but but look at me - at-least I am rich from tax cuts ... and we got supreme , yes supreme ... now whats that again you say ... anyways , (screaming) MAGA !!
~Boomer age financial advisors are all cut from the same cloth -- everything good is trump and deregulation and anything bad is democrats. Their only job is to fit the narrative to whatever has happened .. you know exactly the type I am talking about
But as I have promised before , we are at the ~ 10% mark from peak to trough ... so something has to give -- in terms of Fed communication ... there will be a time to get back in ... just not yet .
We are NOT heading into a recession and housing is NOT collapsing (it is softening though) -- if this stock market panic helps you buyers negotiate with jumpy and nervous sellers get that discount now --- don't wait till next year .
I never tell anyone what to do here, It's what I get paid to do so why give it away for free. Just checked the year to date in my largest institutional account this morning, after yesterdays sell off, Up 16.04%. Believe it or not, I really don't care, its why people hire professionals, we have to earn it, the capitalistic way. And don't try to ask me to prove that return, I won't, that's between me and my very liberal but happy clients.
You can't have it both ways. On the other thread about tax cuts you are saying not everyone lives in California and there are other people in the country and on average are getting tax cuts. On this thread you use 1 anecdotal example as the end all and be all of the market performing well. How about...you know the Dow and S&P500 YTD? Flat to low % gain?
Oh right....let's cherry pick whatever helps support my narrative.
President Donald Trump says his administration was "looking at" antitrust proceedings against tech giants Google, Amazon, and Facebook.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.bu...-facebook-google-looking-at-antitrust-2018-11
Trump vs Tech
Those are called "weak hands" in the industry.
I have to call this out as Wrong . I know actual industry experts who do this for a living
Weaker hands are hedge funds that liquidate crowded trades all together like lemmings . High HF ownership is a recipe for volatility
I can write a whole thesis here on CTA and risk parity funds and how they affect the ?beta? or the index but will save it for a different time
Blaming millennials for everything is the ?easy? and sometimes ?lazy? answer . Sorry if this offends anyone.
Playing out just as i expected 2850/2800 is ceiling hard to break , but 2600/2650 also a strong support level .
For those who asked me before , I haven?t gotten back in the market since August , but have been adding more to my fixed income investments in the meantime .
Cares said:
But .. but ... but ... consumer confidence highest ever ...but but look at me - at-least I am rich from tax cuts ... and we got supreme , yes supreme ... now whats that again you say ... anyways , (screaming) MAGA !!
~Boomer age financial advisors are all cut from the same cloth -- everything good is trump and deregulation and anything bad is democrats. Their only job is to fit the narrative to whatever has happened .. you know exactly the type I am talking about
But as I have promised before , we are at the ~ 10% mark from peak to trough ... so something has to give -- in terms of Fed communication ... there will be a time to get back in ... just not yet .
We are NOT heading into a recession and housing is NOT collapsing (it is softening though) -- if this stock market panic helps you buyers negotiate with jumpy and nervous sellers get that discount now --- don't wait till next year .
morekaos
Well-known member
fortune11 said:Ready2Downsize said:
Aw shucks ... looksy look there
MAGA investing philosophy in a nutshell =>
When market goes up it is because of trump
When it goes down , blame imaginary Democrats
And here I thought you all good ol red blooded Americans were fired up after confirming kavanaugh and had crushed the blue wave already ?
Market went down , rates unchanged . Why ? I will explain later in the day in good detail for those who care .
In the meantime - any of the MAGA investing ?experts ? here want to pronounce any theories ? were their portfolios were up in green yesterday , you know , because they are ?active? managers
I never tell anyone what to do here, It's what I get paid to do so why give it away for free. Just checked the year to date in my largest institutional account this morning, after yesterdays sell off, Up 16.04%. Believe it or not, I really don't care, its why people hire professionals, we have to earn it, the capitalistic way. And don't try to ask me to prove that return, I won't, that's between me and my very liberal but happy clients.
morekaos said:fortune11 said:Ready2Downsize said:
Aw shucks ... looksy look there
MAGA investing philosophy in a nutshell =>
When market goes up it is because of trump
When it goes down , blame imaginary Democrats
And here I thought you all good ol red blooded Americans were fired up after confirming kavanaugh and had crushed the blue wave already ?
Market went down , rates unchanged . Why ? I will explain later in the day in good detail for those who care .
In the meantime - any of the MAGA investing ?experts ? here want to pronounce any theories ? were their portfolios were up in green yesterday , you know , because they are ?active? managers
I never tell anyone what to do here, It's what I get paid to do so why give it away for free. Just checked the year to date in my largest institutional account this morning, after yesterdays sell off, Up 16.04%. Believe it or not, I really don't care, its why people hire professionals, we have to earn it, the capitalistic way. And don't try to ask me to prove that return, I won't, that's between me and my very liberal but happy clients.
You can't have it both ways. On the other thread about tax cuts you are saying not everyone lives in California and there are other people in the country and on average are getting tax cuts. On this thread you use 1 anecdotal example as the end all and be all of the market performing well. How about...you know the Dow and S&P500 YTD? Flat to low % gain?
Oh right....let's cherry pick whatever helps support my narrative.
morekaos
Well-known member
On that note I have been very consistent. The Dow will be up for the year. Corrections like this are healthy, warranted and opportunities.
https://youtu.be/OmBxVfQTuvI
https://youtu.be/OmBxVfQTuvI
https://youtu.be/OmBxVfQTuvI
https://youtu.be/OmBxVfQTuvI
This is a classic example of why this whole business?s of financial advisory is the biggest scam yet
Market up - I told you so , didn?t I
Market down ? opportunity ! When is it an opportunity ? Down 2% down 5% down 10 % ? They never tell you do they . ?
Then you Hear Mumbo jumbo about ?dollar cost averaging?
They can never lose , can they
Market up - I told you so , didn?t I
Market down ? opportunity ! When is it an opportunity ? Down 2% down 5% down 10 % ? They never tell you do they . ?
Then you Hear Mumbo jumbo about ?dollar cost averaging?
They can never lose , can they
aquabliss
Well-known member
This bear market is pretty predictable and pretty easy to make $ with option selling by following my 6 simple rules
1. Buy QQQ calls and puts (don?t sell options in this crazy market)
2. Buy only on Fridays (next week expiry) and Mondays / Tuesday?s (current week expiry). Time erosion when you buy Wed/Thur is fast and furious.
3. If buying Friday (for example), buy 5 minutes before market close, only buy is the QQQ price is up or down 1.5% or greater for that day.
4. Buy the opposite direction. For example buy a OTM call (for next Friday expiry) if the QQQ is down 1.5% or greater. Likewise an OTM put if the QQQ is up 1.5% or greater. If it doesn?t move enough, don?t buy anything just wait for your next opportunity near market close on Mon or Tues.
5. Next business day around 9am Pacific, sell the contract if you?re positive. If you?re negative, give it until about noon to turn if not, sell it anyway and take the loss.
6. Wash rinse repeat on Fri/Mon/Tues. Get in and out quick, be disciplined, stick to the plan and don?t be greedy.
So far this has worked well for me. For example today I bought QQQ calls for this week expiry 5min before close. If market is up tomorrow morning I sell, if down then I wait until noon and sell regardless of price.
Remember, past performance is not indicative of future results
1. Buy QQQ calls and puts (don?t sell options in this crazy market)
2. Buy only on Fridays (next week expiry) and Mondays / Tuesday?s (current week expiry). Time erosion when you buy Wed/Thur is fast and furious.
3. If buying Friday (for example), buy 5 minutes before market close, only buy is the QQQ price is up or down 1.5% or greater for that day.
4. Buy the opposite direction. For example buy a OTM call (for next Friday expiry) if the QQQ is down 1.5% or greater. Likewise an OTM put if the QQQ is up 1.5% or greater. If it doesn?t move enough, don?t buy anything just wait for your next opportunity near market close on Mon or Tues.
5. Next business day around 9am Pacific, sell the contract if you?re positive. If you?re negative, give it until about noon to turn if not, sell it anyway and take the loss.
6. Wash rinse repeat on Fri/Mon/Tues. Get in and out quick, be disciplined, stick to the plan and don?t be greedy.
So far this has worked well for me. For example today I bought QQQ calls for this week expiry 5min before close. If market is up tomorrow morning I sell, if down then I wait until noon and sell regardless of price.
Remember, past performance is not indicative of future results
For what it?s worth to anyone interested ?-
Earnings are largely behind us , revisions and estimates are also fine tuned for q4 and 2019 to a large degree .
Think we have a floor here around 2600 - 2650 for the s&p.
But hard to see it break out meaningfully beyond 2850 . So we are in this range for now until next year when we will find out the true realities of trade war , fed hike path etc .
Earnings are largely behind us , revisions and estimates are also fine tuned for q4 and 2019 to a large degree .
Think we have a floor here around 2600 - 2650 for the s&p.
But hard to see it break out meaningfully beyond 2850 . So we are in this range for now until next year when we will find out the true realities of trade war , fed hike path etc .
fortune11 said:
President Donald Trump says his administration was "looking at" antitrust proceedings against tech giants Google, Amazon, and Facebook.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.bu...-facebook-google-looking-at-antitrust-2018-11
Trump vs Tech
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
I say we hit all time highs in the markets before year end, mainly due to window dressing and corporate buybacks.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
aquabliss said:
Those are called "weak hands" in the industry.
USCTrojanCPA said:
I have to call this out as Wrong . I know actual industry experts who do this for a living
Weaker hands are hedge funds that liquidate crowded trades all together like lemmings . High HF ownership is a recipe for volatility
I can write a whole thesis here on CTA and risk parity funds and how they affect the ?beta? or the index but will save it for a different time
Blaming millennials for everything is the ?easy? and sometimes ?lazy? answer . Sorry if this offends anyone.
fortune11 said:
Playing out just as i expected 2850/2800 is ceiling hard to break , but 2600/2650 also a strong support level .
For those who asked me before , I haven?t gotten back in the market since August , but have been adding more to my fixed income investments in the meantime .