A few thoughts on this sell off
People keep blaming the fed but rising rates are not the real problem . If economy is expected to grow at a faster pace than Fed is hiking rates , it is totally not a problem
What is happening, as I have mentioned several times before , is stocks have an extremely high hurdle rate to clear for 2019 ? set by 2018 earnings which were just exceptional so far , juiced by tax cuts and solid topline growth in the US
but stocks always look forward ? so what began as a sell off in emerging markets and then cyclicals and then small caps has now spread to large cap growth . Rotation from growth into value ? notice how telecom stocks like Verizon close to 1y highs
Why are rates not lower ? As mentioned earlier (I forgot which thread I said this in) ?
the fed is Locked and loaded into quarterly hikes and not blinking . But the mortgage experts here will notice that long dated rates (long bonds) have started to rally again . This is the market telling fed , we don?t see the long term pickup in growth that you are seeing . And with short term trade wars, there is also the risk of a policy mistake .
For where long rates go in the future - carefully watch European (German) bonds ? they will somewhat dictate us long dated interest rates .
I bought tactically in feb and then got out recently in August , missed some of the upside , but now it?s worked out in hindsight . For me to buy this market again , I need to see 1) less disruption from trade 2) signs that 2019 earnings forecast don?t start to come down yet again .
Market will be higher tomorrow ? Machines don?t want to be short before a weekend in case trump and xi Renew their love . Remember when I said ignore the new nafta nonsense , it is all about China ?
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