Trying to buy in Irvine is NO Fun

[IndieDev]

Until

I haven't really looked but I don't think there are many 2000sft+ SFRs in Turtle Rock that have closed recently at $600k.

This would be the first in a very long time (since 2003). It shows how far TR has fallen.

In April, the Guess-O-Nomics crowd was saying it wasn't even possible.

Until it closes... it shows nothing. Last year REX Realty listed "auction" homes at half the comps... but they ended closing at or above the prevailing prices.

I know you're not a realtor and a self-proclaimed expert in Funda-nomics... but looking at recent comps... do you think this will close closer to $600k or $700k?

Taking this outlier and saying "Look look... $600k TR home... toldyaso" is similar to the "disinformation" you pride yourself on defeating.

Really it shows "nothing"? You don't think it shows any market weakness? C'mon man, you can't be that purposefully prideful to admit you and your guess-o-nomics buddies were wrong about the Irvine market. A TR shortsale, not listed as an auction listing, at $608,000 is certainly indicative of "something". On top of that I showed you FOUR closed properties that closed in the 300s/sqft, none of them backing to Culver. Does that mean nothing to you too? 

Also I notice it's not "it'll close closer to $800,000" now from the Guess-O-Nomics crowd, it's "maybe it'll close closer to $700,000." Those price ceilings keep on dropping, very telling.

But honestly, I never said this is the norm for Turtle Rock, where did I say that? That's actually your own accusation/interpretation. I've only represented the property as what it is, a MLS listed property at a price where numerous posters were saying it would be an impossibility, yet... here it is.

I'm not here to "defeat" anyone, I'm only here to show that your Guess-O-Nomics and claims that Irvine is a unicorn and different is simply wrong, and you have been wrong the past 6 months. This proves that $533 a sqft for a TR home backing to Culver, or $839,000 for a smaller model is simply not a good comp, and the market activity is proving me right.

Seriously man, relax, I really want for your to gain more knowledge so you will stop saying things like "this neighborhood is different", and "profit seeking firms stop making stuff to maintain price levels". For someone who has 3,200+ post on a housing forum, its escapes me how you can still say things like that and not blush. I'm trying to save you from embarrassing yourself when you talk to your friends or family about real estate, because people who do know what they're talking about and hear what you say, will judge you harshly by the inaccuracy of your statements.  When it comes down to it, I'm your friend even though you don't know it, perhaps one of your best.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Hehe... everything is so extreme to you... I'll be the first to admit that prices in Irvine are dropping but quoting a single short sale price that hasn't even closed does "nothing" to prove how "far TR has fallen".

And let's stick to the apples... showing me 4 properties that all closed over $750k (the cheapest actually at $769k) doesn't tell me that TR 2000sft homes are selling for $600k. Again, as much as you want to disprove that comps are not at $800k, comps are also not at $600k... so what you are accusing Guess-O-Nomics of is the same thing you are doing... speculating on what a comp should be when the current market says otherwise.

I'm not sure where you think I've been wrong... the facts are there are certain places in Irvine that have not dropped as far and as fast as other cities, does your $1000 dispute that?

As far as me blushing... I don't make forecasts for other people to base their decisions, show me where I have told anyone on this forum that they should buy now because prices are going to go up or stay the same. You may want to think that because it feeds into your whole "I'm better than you" psyche but it's really another of your "I'll exaggerate stuff to get a rise" tactics. It's still not working... and unlike you... I'm okay with admitting being wrong... we all can't be as perfect as you are.

Let me ask you again since you know better than all of us:

Do you think that short sale will close at $608k?

 

[IndieDev]

But I never said comps were at $600k. I've always maintained they would go towards that valuation, but they weren't there yet. I simply posted a property listed at $608k, a price many of you said was impossible. Yet, here it is.

You say none of the sub-400/sqft closings mean nothing, a $600k short sale means nothing, do you honestly believe that? Or is that simply your pride talking because you're one of the biggest "Irvine is a unicorn and different" cheerleaders on this forum?

As for the short sale, I'm not a fortune teller, and have never claimed to be one. If forced to guess I'd say it'll close in the 600s, easily, which would make it a comp for the next buyer/seller, and so on. This is how correcting markets work.

 

[rkp]

....a $600k short sale means nothing, do you honestly believe that?

The $600K shortsale does mean NOTHING in the context of comps for the time being.  Without seeing the actual damage and work needed to be done, then its just a useless number.  My gut says there is substantial work needed to be done to make it like the other properties that closed.  Does that mean that I dont believe TR is falling in price?  Of course not.  It just means that this $600K shortsale isnt the holy grail you are making it out to be. 

A worthwhile discussion would be shortsale list price to close price.  I have seen situations where the listed price was HALF of what the final sold price was and situations where the final price was 20% less than the listed short sale price. 

On another note, you guys really have to stop the personal drama and cool it down.  Its boring being part of a forum thats he said she said and a pissing contest.  I stopped coming here for a long time cause it seemed that way and its seeming that way again.  All of us have our opinions and are sharing them. 

Going back to the actual thread topic, I wanted to add that I am surprised how IrvinePacific makes everyone go through the prequal with their lender before even being able to sit down and discuss pricing.  I was in San Marino and a broker had her FCB clients with her and she kept saying CASH BUYER almost angrily to the IPac rep as the rep kept insisting on getting them prequalified.  I thought at least the new home buying should be more akin to shopping at the mall and more fun.  Sharing every single dollar I have and how I made it to the vendor doesnt seem fun at all. 

 

[IndieDev]

....a $600k short sale means nothing, do you honestly believe that?

The $600K shortsale does mean NOTHING in the context of comps for the time being.  Without seeing the actual damage and work needed to be done, then its just a useless number.  My gut says there is substantial work needed to be done to make it like the other properties that closed.  Does that mean that I dont believe TR is falling in price?  Of course not.  It just means that this $600K shortsale isnt the holy grail you are making it out to be. 

A worthwhile discussion would be shortsale list price to close price.  I have seen situations where the listed price was HALF of what the final sold price was and situations where the final price was 20% less than the listed short sale price. 

Who said I was making it out to be a holy grail? You and IHO have this perceptive application problem. You have a problem deciphering what is invented in your own head, and the actual reality (happens a lot on this forum). I am simply pointing out that TR price weakness is apparent, and shown by recent activity which is contrary to what many were claiming only 2 months ago.

Do you two actually deny that there is price weakness in the coveted TR neighborhood?  :

On another note, you guys really have to stop the personal drama and cool it down.  Its boring being part of a forum thats he said she said and a pissing contest.  I stopped coming here for a long time cause it seemed that way and its seeming that way again.  All of us have our opinions and are sharing them. 

I agree, but the pissing contest attract the most attention. Just look at this thread or other threads where the flare ups begin, thousand of pageviews and dozens of responses. Otherwise, it's just a forum where people are discussing how much free food was at a TIC design center.

Also, you have to look at yourself and think about what type of insecurity you may be harboring if what people say on the internet is having such an effect on you. Relax, it's just the internet, it's not that serious.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

But I never said comps were at $600k. I've always maintained they would go towards that valuation, but they weren't there yet. I simply posted a property listed at $608k, a price many of you said was impossible. Yet, here it is.

If you just simply posted that... you would be right... but you went on to say this:

This would be the first in a very long time (since 2003). It shows how far TR has fallen.

The problem is, this isn't the first because it hasn't closed yet... so that's what I mean about "nothing".

You say none of the sub-400/sqft closings mean nothing, a $600k short sale means nothing, do you honestly believe that? Or is that simply your pride talking because you're one of the biggest "Irvine is a unicorn and different" cheerleaders on this forum?

Read above to clarify your perception.

What pride? You yourself have admitted that Irvine has non-fundamentals at play at the mere fact that it's not a beach city yet commands similar premiums does make it different. Does it hurt you because your vaunted Funda-nomics can't explain the price stickiness in Irvine... and until prices get back to fundamentals, you can finally prove to us your superior economic intelligence? See I can spin it Indie-style too... but if you stay with the facts... you'll see that I'm no more "wrong" than you are "right". Whenever I ask you to explain why things are so sticky you go back to your "I'm don't engage in watercooler discussions" and run away.

As for the short sale, I'm not a fortune teller, and have never claimed to be one.

Are you sure? You keep posting graphs on how Irvine prices are going down and that they are headed lower/

If forced to guess I'd say it'll close in the 600s, easily, which would make it a comp for the next buyer/seller, and so on. This is how correcting markets work.

Nice hedge... but do you think closer to $600k or $700k?

Also... outliers exist... I thought a Westpark II 3CWG foreclosure for somewhere in the $700ks was going to mean something, instead, prices are still in the high 8s even upwards of 9s.

The point, which you keep missing, is that you are so adamant that people are dispensing misinformation in regards to valuation of TR prices, yet the comps (which you say help correct the market) are supportive of a valuation higher than your 600k valuation. So to post a single short sale to try to prove how your theory is correct is a bit reaching and just as much as a non-indicator until it closes.

And yes... I've already said prices in TR are softening... they are in all parts in Irvine... just not as much or as fast as other people thought they would.

It's also why the topic here says it's no fun to buy a house in Irvine.

Ra-ra-sis-boom-ba!

 

[IndieDev]

What pride? You yourself have admitted that Irvine has non-fundamentals at play at the mere fact that it's not a beach city yet commands similar premiums does make it different.

Irvine commands similar premiums to beach cities? You're kidding right? That's not even remotely accurate. See this is why it's hard to have "serious" discussion with you because you can't even get simple, verifiable facts, correct. It's painful IHO. Seriously, go look at the median price per square foot in Newport Coast/Laguna Beach, compared to Irvine. Seriously, it could've taken you 2 minutes to see that you're statement is wrong, but you didn't do it. That's why I have a hard time discussing the market with you, because you just don't get the basics right.

But see, I have a soft heart, I'm trying to help you. You'll be my pet project on TalkIrvine. I'll turn you from laymen to semi-knowledgeable one bit at a time.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

My pet project will be to fix your reading comprehension.

Discussion on a forum isn't exactly specific or scientific... when I say "similar premiums" I don't mean "exact median per square foot".

Maybe you should concentrate more on your cognitive skills than your "Ooo... I can prove someone wrong" skills. If you actually think that I believe a Newport home is the same price as an Irvine home, you have a soft brain... not heart.

Have you figured out the difference between slander and libel yet? 

 

[elgringo]

This thread has gotten really off track from the OP's comments.  Just saying....

 

[iacrenter]

This thread has great entertainment value and goes well with my 4th of July popcorn 

 

[gaab]

train + wreck =  cannot help but look.  thanks for the edu-tainment

 

[Megan StoneTree]

I personally work for a new home builder, so keep that in mind as you read my post.  I do have some prejudices that I hold for new homes, and will readily admit to (the pretty baby syndrome). 
New homes are currently a really great value -and I'm sorry to anyone who has had a poor experience in a new home sales office.  The BIA has a nice piece that goes over some of the reasons to buy new, I've included a link to that http://www.biasc.org/why-buy-new/. 
I think you should keep your mind open to both - and just find what you love.  If its the right home for you it will fall into place.
Good luck!
Megan

 

[iacrenter]

I personally work for a new home builder, so keep that in mind as you read my post.  I do have some prejudices that I hold for new homes, and will readily admit to (the pretty baby syndrome). 
New homes are currently a really great value -and I'm sorry to anyone who has had a poor experience in a new home sales office.  The BIA has a nice piece that goes over some of the reasons to buy new, I've included a link to that http://www.biasc.org/why-buy-new/. 
I think you should keep your mind open to both - and just find what you love.  If its the right home for you it will fall into place.
Good luck!
Megan

Megan--Keep up the posting. It's always good to get more perspectives--even biased opinions from builders 

I think there is a lot frustration among re-sale buyers given the many short sales that seem to go on forever, bidding wars on well priced/nice properties, or the many WTF priced homes just stagnating on the market. That is part  of the beauty of new construction. There are not as many BS games you have to play to get your home, plus you get BK style (No, not BKShopr but Burger King)--customized the way you want.

The downside of new construction--postage stamp lots, high MR, and most with compromised setups (i.e. no driveway or no yard or both).

 

[IndieDev]

when I say "similar premiums" I don't mean "exact median per square foot".

Oh okay, I see what you did there. You're using the Guess-O-Nomics definition of "similar", because according to most people "similar" means "in the same neighborhood" but your comparison isn't even on the same continent.

Guess-O-Nomics wins again.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

when I say "similar premiums" I don't mean "exact median per square foot".

Oh okay, I see what you did there. You're using the Guess-O-Nomics definition of "similar", because according to most people "similar" means "in the same neighborhood" but your comparison isn't even on the same continent.

Guess-O-Nomics wins again.

Nice try. I know you're stubborn but don't let that get in the way of common sense.

Are you sure you don't practice Obtuse-O-Nomics?

Boom goes the dynamite.

 

[IndieDev]

when I say "similar premiums" I don't mean "exact median per square foot".

Oh okay, I see what you did there. You're using the Guess-O-Nomics definition of "similar", because according to most people "similar" means "in the same neighborhood" but your comparison isn't even on the same continent.

Guess-O-Nomics wins again.

Nice try. I know you're stubborn but don't let that get in the way of common sense.

Are you sure you don't practice Obtuse-O-Nomics?

Boom goes the dynamite.

Dude, you're painting it like I'm missing something, and maybe I am according to YOUR definition, but under no definition of the word "similar" that is currently in usage by regular people are Newport Beach, and Irvine selling for "similar" premiums.

Instead of trolling, why not just admit you didn't do enough research before you made that statement, and move on. Stop being insecure, it'll help you a LOT when you deal with people later in life.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Dude, you're painting it like I'm missing something, and maybe I am according to YOUR definition, but under no definition of the word "similar" that is currently in usage by regular people are Newport Beach, and Irvine selling for "similar" premiums.

You're worse than Lane.

Let me speeks slloooowwwurrrrr.

Irvine has premiums over other cities... yes or no?

Newport has premiums over other cities... even Irvine... yes or no?

So they are similar in that they both have premiums while other cities do not.

And maybe this might confuse you more but you may even be able to extrapolate and say Irvine has similar premiums over [insert city here] as Newport has over Irvine.

Deeed dat wurk fer yooo?

Instead of trolling, why not just admit you didn't do enough research before you made that statement, and move on.

What research? Does anyone have to do research to know that Newport is higher per sft than Irvine? Just admit you misunderstood what I was saying... and now you're trying to hide your lack of comprehension.

Stop being insecure, it'll help you a LOT when you deal with people later in life.

I understand you like to look for weaknesses and pounce on them to make yourself look superior... but now you're really stretching. Seems you're the only one on this board who took my statement they way you are trying to take it.

Or do you need to show how inferior others are for your own security? Thanks for the advice, but maybe you should understand that life isn't always about money, "financial sense" or #winning.... and I'm sorry but I don't think I'll be looking to you for pointers on how to "deal with people". But let me know when you write that book or host that seminar... I'm always up for a good display of irony. 

 

[IndieDev]

What pride? You yourself have admitted that Irvine has non-fundamentals at play at the mere fact that it's not a beach city yet commands similar premiums does make it different.

Let me speeks slloooowwwurrrrr.

Irvine has premiums over other cities... yes or no?

Newport has premiums over other cities... even Irvine... yes or no?

So they are similar in that they both have premiums while other cities do not.

This is funny, and must be saved for future reference.

Irvinehomeowner's logic...

Newport has premiums over other cities, Irvine has premiums over other cities, therefore their premiums are similar. GENIUS.

More IHO Guess-O-Nomics examples include:
Manhattan has premiums over other cities, Rochester has premiums over other cities, therefore their premiums are similar.
Malibu has premiums over other cities, Moor park has premiums over other cities, therefore their premiums are similar.

 

[oakcreekrenter]

This is funny.  Really, IHO and IndieDev are just two sides of the same coin.  Are you sure you two don't make this stuff up offline for the sheer entertainment value?

 

[IndieDev]

  Are you sure you two don't make this stuff up offline for the sheer entertainment value?

Threads I'm involved in on Talkirvine generally have the highest viewcounts, and post counts. I'm generally well liked, and followed on this forum.