Trying to buy in Irvine is NO Fun

[IndieDev]

Yeah that is a big negative. This house won't go in the 700s unless they found a bigger sucker than edhne.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/18921-Antioch-Dr-92603/home/4738176

$60,000 down, is Edhne going to pull out his checkbook?

 

[akim997]

Has any of the bets paid off on this site?  a lot of talk, no money changing hands...  a lot of talk an no walk...  im going to guess edhne will not be responding any time soon...   

 

[usctrojancpa]

Has any of the bets paid off on this site?  a lot of talk, no money changing hands...  a lot of talk an no walk...  im going to guess edhne will not be responding any time soon...   

I'm more curious if NonFCB will come back on here after seeing what happened with that Northpark Mike Dunn listing.

 

[homer_simpson]

$900k  :-\  what was his prediction again?

 

[usctrojancpa]

$900k  :-\  what was his prediction again?

$1.1M if I remember correctly.

 

[homer_simpson]

$900k  :-\  what was his prediction again?

$1.1M if I remember correctly.

That difference in amount can buy a lot of donuts!

 

[iacrenter]

$900k  :-\  what was his prediction again?

$1.1M if I remember correctly.

That difference in amount can buy a lot of donuts!

Are you guys talking about 2 Malibu? I thought that got pulled from the market. I checked Redfin and it just shows the last sale as 2009 @ $900K.

 

[usctrojancpa]

$900k  :-\  what was his prediction again?

$1.1M if I remember correctly.

That difference in amount can buy a lot of donuts!

Are you guys talking about 2 Malibu? I thought that got pulled from the market. I checked Redfin and it just shows the last sale as 2009 @ $900K.

Yeah, that's the one.  It didn't sell even with Mike's fancy pricing slight of hand.  The house didn't sell for $1.1M back then and it surely won't sell for that today.

 

[akim997]

2 Malibu was entertaining... but this Antioch property created an interesting discussion with regards pricing in Turtle Rock.

 

[IndieDev]

2 Malibu and 18921 Antioch will forever live in infamy on TI as the homes that burst the bubble in the minds of the Irvine cheerleaders.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

2 Malibu and 18921 Antioch will forever live in infamy on TI as the homes that burst the bubble in the minds of the Irvine cheerleaders.

Neh... outliers will always exist... there's another thread here that shows the opposite.

And I'm still not sure how Antioch bursts any bubbles... the contention (at least mine) was that comps are around $700k+... and remember... the bank did take it back at $805k.

 

[IndieDev]

2 Malibu and 18921 Antioch will forever live in infamy on TI as the homes that burst the bubble in the minds of the Irvine cheerleaders.

Neh... outliers will always exist... there's another thread here that shows the opposite.

And I'm still not sure how Antioch bursts any bubbles... the contention (at least mine) was that comps are around $700k+... and remember... the bank did take it back at $805k.

No, the original contention was that these homes were worth $800,000+ back in April when edhne was still posting:

40-year old 3/2s for $800k may be below comps in Turtle Rock but that's not exactly in the affordability range for many people.

The 700s angle only came AFTER the cheerleader brigade began to realize "Turtle Rock really isn't that different".  8)

Besides, what the "bank" buys a home back for isn't a real indication of what it's worth. The bank just wants to protect its asset at auction.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

2 Malibu and 18921 Antioch will forever live in infamy on TI as the homes that burst the bubble in the minds of the Irvine cheerleaders.

Neh... outliers will always exist... there's another thread here that shows the opposite.

And I'm still not sure how Antioch bursts any bubbles... the contention (at least mine) was that comps are around $700k+... and remember... the bank did take it back at $805k.

No, the original contention was that these homes were worth $800,000+ back in April when edhne was still posting:

40-year old 3/2s for $800k may be below comps in Turtle Rock but that's not exactly in the affordability range for many people.

The 700s angle only came AFTER the cheerleader brigade began to realize "Turtle Rock really isn't that different".  8)

Wow... great out of context quote... you went all the way back to page 3 for that one and Antioch wasn't even what we were discussing.

My comment about 40-year old 3/2s for $800k was speaking to the affordability factor because originally we were talking about if homes in Turtle Rock were worth their premium.

The $700ks valuation came when you brought up Antioch and I looked at comps for similar homes to determine what a comped value would be compared to your Fundanomics $600k value. Your hot tub time machine is getting things out of order.

Besides, what the "bank" buys a home back for isn't a real indication of what it's worth. The bank just wants to protect its asset at auction.

Oh... so when it's not favorable to you... what the bank does is not a real indication of worth... but when that same bank low-listed it for a "standard" sale at $600k... then it becomes a real indicator?

The property in question was foreclosed and has gone REO as of 12 days ago. It's no longer a shortsale, and has been on the MLS as a STANDARD sale for almost two weeks at $608,000, and still no takers!http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/18921-Antioch-Dr-92603/home/4738176

Does it mean something now baby?

C'mon now Indie... stop trying to use watercooler logic. 

 

[IndieDev]

The $700ks valuation came when you brought up Antioch and I looked at comps for similar homes to determine what a comped value would be compared to your Fundanomics $600k value.

What? I don't remember that at all. Can you show me where you unequivocally said that 3/2 Turtle Rock homes like the one on Antioch were comping in the 700s? I'm not saying you didn't say that, but I really don't remember you ever making any "valuation" or stance at all. In fact, I remember betting you real cash to stand by your own valuation (instead of chiming in on others), and you beat a very hasty retreat.

Oh... so when it's not favorable to you... what the bank does is not a real indication of worth... but when that same bank low-listed it for a "standard" sale at $600k... then it becomes a real indicator?

You know that's not the same thing right? Listing an REO at a price, and the auction price? Two totally different business models/perspectives determine each of those prices.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

The $700ks valuation came when you brought up Antioch and I looked at comps for similar homes to determine what a comped value would be compared to your Fundanomics $600k value.

What? I don't remember that at all. Can you show me where you unequivocally said that 3/2 Turtle Rock homes like the one on Antioch were comping in the 700s? I'm not saying you didn't say that, but I really don't remember you ever making any "valuation" or stance at all. In fact, I remember betting you real cash to stand by your own valuation (instead of chiming in on others), and you beat a very hasty retreat.

You can find my obscure post on page 3 that wasn't even a definitive valuation from me (again, I was referring to how $800k homes aren't that affordable for many people, esp a old 3/2), but you can't find the post where I mentioned comps for Antioch?
http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php?topic=1607.msg23944#msg23944

The property in question was foreclosed and has gone REO as of 12 days ago. It's no longer a shortsale, and has been on the MLS as a STANDARD sale for almost two weeks at $608,000, and still no takers!http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/18921-Antioch-Dr-92603/home/4738176

Does it mean something now baby?

So it went back to the bank for $805k... it's been available for 2 weeks at $608k... it still means nothing until it closes (and considering that Biddle closed over $800k, you're still $200k off).

I find it funny that you hedge your bets to favor you. Wasn't your fundamental evaluation of Biddle $600k yet your low value on the bet was $819k... so you don't really practice what you preach. And since you think the "sucker" overpaid by $200k, shouldn't your threshold be $608k? A fair bet would have been if it closes below $700k you win... splitting the difference between your $600k and ed's $800k, but you wouldn't make that bet would you?

It's actually difficult to bet on a specific real estate transaction because you never know what can happen, I could be technical and say since Antioch sold back to bank at $805k, your $608k did mean nothing.

Like I said before, REX Realty listed a NWP home for something like $400k, it ended up selling near the $900k mark... did that listing price mean nothing? Yes.

For fun let's try Antioch -- you say $608k and the comps looks like $700k+, so let's split it, will it close under $650k or over?

You can click on the link to see how the $700k number came about but what's interesting is the $800k number you're harping on was in regards to Biddle, which in fact closed for $808k... not $600k, so you still were wrong there:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/19181-Biddle-Dr-92603/home/4739523

 

[IndieDev]

So I was right. You never ever said anything about Turtle Rock homes in the Antioch "range" comping at 700k. Why did you lie about it then just a few post back?

In fact all I could find where you said anything about $700k comps was this:

For fun let's try Antioch -- you say $608k and the comps looks like $700k+, so let's split it, will it close under $650k or over?

To which I replied:

I'll bet you $500 straight up (no contingencies, etc) that it will close for under $650k.

And we BOTH know what happened when you read that. You turned tail, and ran.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Oh... so when it's not favorable to you... what the bank does is not a real indication of worth... but when that same bank low-listed it for a "standard" sale at $600k... then it becomes a real indicator?

You know that's not the same thing right? Listing an REO at a price, and the auction price? Two totally different business models/perspectives determine each of those prices.

Do you realize a short sale listing price is also different? If I recall correctly, before it was listed as an REO, you also used the short sale list price as an indicator of worth.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So I was right. You never ever said anything about Turtle Rock homes in the Antioch "range" comping at 700k. Why did you lie about it then just a few post back?

In fact all I could find where you said anything about $700k comps was this:

For fun let's try Antioch -- you say $608k and the comps looks like $700k+, so let's split it, will it close under $650k or over?

Uh... so what does "and the comps look like $700k+" mean to you?

It is in english. Are you having reading comprehension issues again?

 

[IndieDev]

All this talk is not worth the time unless money is involved.

IHO, if you really want to be the man who "claimed" that Turtle Rock homes in this range are in the 700s, let's make if official.

I'll bet you a $500 friendly wager that based on market weakness in the area, and the way trends are currently for the Irvine market, that Antioch will not close over $700,000.

If you want to be the $700,000 man, then put a little dough on it. Keyboarding is cheap, let's at least make it worth $500.

 

[usctrojancpa]

All this talk is not worth the time unless money is involved.

IHO, if you really want to be the man who "claimed" that Turtle Rock homes in this range are in the 700s, let's make if official.

I'll bet you a $500 friendly wager that based on market weakness in the area, and the way trends are currently for the Irvine market, that Antioch will not close over $700,000.

If you want to be the $700,000k man, then put a little dough on it. Keyboarding is cheap, let's at least make it worth $500.

And the winner donates the $500 to the charity of his choice?