The 2020 Presidential Election

[Irvinecommuter]

@ic:

When I mentioned personal attacks, I mean on the members at TI. Since this is a 2020 president election thread, as you can see, members will talk about the people, not just the policies. I've never said fortune11 can't call Trump racist, but someone calling morekaos racist becomes dicey.

As for your candidate list, while I agree that anyone might be better than Trump, that's not the question, the question, as Kings posted, is who can beat an incumbent president that has for some reason, despite his "charisma", garnered enough support to get him elected in the first place.

My take, which could be wrong, is the reasons he won were more about changing of guard, shaking things up, money, maybe Russians (still not sure how that worked) and dislike for Hillary (not just her, but the Clinton clan). I still think that now some if not many people regretted that but as others have said, he appeals to a demographic that ironically is against current social movements.

So I think that will be an important tentpole that Dems are going to gather under (as can be seen by Biden's support for things that opposes Trump).

But is that enough?

Trump won for two reasons:  One is economic and the other is social...they are somewhat connected but not completely.

Economically, there is divide between rural and urban America as to benefits gained since the Great Recession.  The urban areas have largely recovered and prospered while the rural areas have been left behind.  Things like automation/AI and business migration have hurt rural areas significantly  more than urban areas.  Now, it is my belief that AI/automation impact on urban lower/middle class is coming and it will hurt a lot of people.  You can also make similar arguments (less impactful) re globalization's effect on rural/urban America.

Socially, the areas that are hardest hit by the economic shift caused by automation/AI are predominantly white....remember, HRC won the popular vote but lost the electoral vote because she lost Rust Belt states.  She was also unable to motivate her base in the urban area to vote because she really didn't present any new policies or direction.  This is where the social "us versus them" strategy by Trump is about.  It's not your fault that the factory closed down, it's the Chinese with their cheating ways and the brown folks.  You are an American and thus you should be the best...the brown people and the globalists are holding you down!  It's not a new playbook...it's just one people haven't read from in awhile.

Trump did hit the enough right notes both economically and socially to get him votes in swing states...they figured, what the heck do they have to lose? 

In 2020, I think Trump will be much more vulnerable because he is know commodity.  He can't run on "drain the swamp" because his cabinet is more swampy than ever.  He can't run against HRC anymore so he needs to set up some new enemies...he is auditioning his villains for the crowds and see what reaction he will get.  So, he is setting up the census question, the border, and now the "go back to where you came from" line.

I expect the rhetoric from him to get worse because he has nothing else to run on...especially if the economy flattens out or drops.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

The "known commodity" part is concerning.

Yes, I would hope that people would come to their senses and vote against him, but at the same time, he has empowered the demographic you spoke about and is playing the "security" card.

Did the Dems win the mid-terms? I think they did even though Kings and morekaos won't admit it, so that could be an indicator of 2020. What has the pattern been for previous presidents/terms when it comes to mid-term results?

Is it seasonal?

 

[eyephone]

And how was that a personal attack?

Personal attack on Warren.  Nothing about her policies...just the standard Trumpster attack line.

at least she has her tribe to support her after that vicious personal attack

Help Morekas make LB great again!

 

[Kings]

don't forget that trump brings out the worst in anyone that challenges him.

pocohontas dug her own grave by releasing her 23 and me results showing she's 1/2000 native american and claiming she's cherokee so that she could stick it to trump

hillary called half the country deplorable to stick it to trump

hell, all of the 2020 dem candidates raised their hands in the last debate for giving illegal aliens free healthcare so that they could stick it to trump

voters see these things and take note about who they want leading them for the next 4 years.  the eventual dem nominee will need to run a flawless campaign and not try to stick it to trump - but it's just so hard not to fight back...our lizard brains can't help it 

 

[eyephone]

don't forget that trump brings out the worst in anyone that challenges him.

pocohontas dug her own grave by releasing her 23 and me results showing she's 1/2000 native american and claiming she's cherokee so that she could stick it to trump

hillary called half the country deplorable to stick it to trump

hell, all of the 2020 dem candidates raised their hands in the last debate for giving illegal aliens free healthcare so that they could stick it to trump

voters see these things and take note about who they want leading them for the next 4 years.  the eventual dem nominee will need to run a flawless campaign and not try to stick it to trump - but it's just so hard not to fight back...our lizard brains can't help it 

National security weak - big Kim shooting missles like fireworks, Iran shooting down US drone and Trump did nothing.

Come on. I think a 7 year old playing Fornite would know what to do.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

The "known commodity" part is concerning.

Yes, I would hope that people would come to their senses and vote against him, but at the same time, he has empowered the demographic you spoke about and is playing the "security" card.

Did the Dems win the mid-terms? I think they did even though Kings and morekaos won't admit it, so that could be an indicator of 2020. What has the pattern been for previous presidents/terms when it comes to mid-term results?

Is it seasonal?

Dems definitely won in 2018...problem is that the Senate was set up in a way where it was highly unlikely for Dems to take seats.  Out of the 33 seats up for election, 23 were Dems and 8 were Republican...thus it was super hard hill to climb. 

Dems received 10+ milion votes than GOP and the percentage was +8.6...that's a pretty serious drubbing.  Dems also got 60+ million votes, which was almost as many votes as they got in 2016, a presidential year.  By comparison, Dems only got 35 million votes in 2014 and 59 million in 2012 (also a presidential year).  GOP also got 50 million votes in 2018, which means both sides were good at getting out votes but Dems were more motivated.

What does that mean in 2020, hard to say.  I can say that Trump's base of 35% is ready to vote but the question is whether the 8-10% he got in 2016 will vote for him again...and more importantly, whether he can hold the Rust Belt states.

His polling there has been really bad but it is hard to say a year and a half out.

 

[Kings]

Did the Dems win the mid-terms? I think they did even though Kings and morekaos won't admit it, so that could be an indicator of 2020. What has the pattern been for previous presidents/terms when it comes to mid-term results?

Is it seasonal?

let's compare trump and obama, since everyone loves to make that comparison.

obama lost 63 seats to republicans in the house and 6 seats in the senate in his first midterm

trump lost 40 seats to dems in the house and gained 2 seats in the senate

i'll let you draw your own conclusions from those results

 

[Irvinecommuter]

don't forget that trump brings out the worst in anyone that challenges him.

pocohontas dug her own grave by releasing her 23 and me results showing she's 1/2000 native american and claiming she's cherokee so that she could stick it to trump

hillary called half the country deplorable to stick it to trump

hell, all of the 2020 dem candidates raised their hands in the last debate for giving illegal aliens free healthcare so that they could stick it to trump

voters see these things and take note about who they want leading them for the next 4 years.  the eventual dem nominee will need to run a flawless campaign and not try to stick it to trump - but it's just so hard not to fight back...our lizard brains can't help it 

National security weak - big Kim shooting missles like fireworks, Iran shooting down US drone and Trump did nothing.

Come on. I think a 7 year old playing Fornite would know what to do.

The only things Trump can run on is the economy and scary brown people.  I have a feeling that the economy is not going to be so great by the end of this year...and probably not great in 2020.

 

[eyephone]

I can tell you this. Eyephone is very strong on security. I got my cameras/alerts/armed response.

I can tell you this if someone broke into my house. I would have to defend myself and do something. (However, you have to know the law.)

 

[Happiness]

You guys are overanalyzing 2017. It's quite simple, the Simpsons rule: while we all know Lisa is smarter, we will always root for for Bart. Bart will stick it to the man. No one likes a Ms. know-it-all.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

You guys are overanalyzing 2017. It's quite simple, the Simpsons rule: while we all know Lisa is smarter, we will always root for for Bart. Bart will stick it to the man. No one likes a Ms. know-it-all.

I don't know about 2017...not much happened electorally in 2017.

You seem to believe that somehow Trump is Bart when in reality, he is Mr. Burns.  He is part of the "man" and has shown he cares more about his own interests as well as his corporate/rich friends than the common person.  I don't even blame people for voting for him in 2016, but if you vote for him 2020, it's out of pure spite and anger.

 

[Happiness]

You guys are overanalyzing 2017. It's quite simple, the Simpsons rule: while we all know Lisa is smarter, we will always root for for Bart. Bart will stick it to the man. No one likes a Ms. know-it-all.

I don't know about 2017...not much happened electorally in 2017.

You seem to believe that somehow Trump is Bart when in reality, he is Mr. Burns.  He is part of the "man" and has shown he cares more about his own interests as well as his corporate/rich friends than the common person.  I don't even blame people for voting for him in 2016, but if you vote for him 2020, it's out of pure spite and anger.

You're talking about what happened after the election. I'm talking about why people voted for Trump. During the campaign, Trump did not talk about his rich friends, he talked about helping the forgotten common people.

HRC displayed her Liberal contempt for the common people during the campaign by:
1) Calling the common people deplorable.
2) Conspire with the DNC to rig the primary election in her favor.
3) Gave a secret speech to Goldman Sachs were she told them to basically ignore what she says about helping the common people.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Did the Dems win the mid-terms? I think they did even though Kings and morekaos won't admit it, so that could be an indicator of 2020. What has the pattern been for previous presidents/terms when it comes to mid-term results?

Is it seasonal?

let's compare trump and obama, since everyone loves to make that comparison.

obama lost 63 seats to republicans in the house and 6 seats in the senate in his first midterm

trump lost 40 seats to dems in the house and gained 2 seats in the senate

i'll let you draw your own conclusions from those results

You keep living your dream land...the shift in 2010 to 2012 economically was massive and that's what kept Obama in power.  2009 GDP fell by 2.6% and 2010, it went up by 2.5% (net swing of 5.1%),  2011...it went up 1.6% and 2012 it went up 2.2.

So unless Trump's GDP numbers hit above 4%...you are not going to have that economic argument in 2020.  The fact that Trump is only at 43% with a decent economy is telling. 

2nd quarter is going to be interesting...estimates are between 1.5 and 2%. 

 

[eyephone]

You guys are overanalyzing 2017. It's quite simple, the Simpsons rule: while we all know Lisa is smarter, we will always root for for Bart. Bart will stick it to the man. No one likes a Ms. know-it-all.

I don't know about 2017...not much happened electorally in 2017.

You seem to believe that somehow Trump is Bart when in reality, he is Mr. Burns.  He is part of the "man" and has shown he cares more about his own interests as well as his corporate/rich friends than the common person.  I don't even blame people for voting for him in 2016, but if you vote for him 2020, it's out of pure spite and anger.

You're talking about what happened after the election. I'm talking about why people voted for Trump. During the campaign, Trump did not talk about his rich friends, he talked about helping the forgotten common people.

HRC displayed her Liberal contempt for the common people during the campaign by:
1) Calling the common people deplorable.
2) Conspire with the DNC to rig the primary election in her favor.
3) Gave a secret speech to Goldman Sachs were she told them to basically ignore what she says about helping the common people.

Hilary is like old. That?s like talking about Romney and McCain failed presidential run.

 

[Kings]

Did the Dems win the mid-terms? I think they did even though Kings and morekaos won't admit it, so that could be an indicator of 2020. What has the pattern been for previous presidents/terms when it comes to mid-term results?

Is it seasonal?

let's compare trump and obama, since everyone loves to make that comparison.

obama lost 63 seats to republicans in the house and 6 seats in the senate in his first midterm

trump lost 40 seats to dems in the house and gained 2 seats in the senate

i'll let you draw your own conclusions from those results

You keep living your dream land...the shift in 2010 to 2012 economically was massive and that's what kept Obama in power.  2009 GDP fell by 2.6% and 2010, it went up by 2.5% (net swing of 5.1%),  2011...it went up 1.6% and 2012 it went up 2.2.

So unless Trump's GDP numbers hit above 4%...you are not going to have that economic argument in 2020.  The fact that Trump is only at 43% with a decent economy is telling. 

2nd quarter is going to be interesting...estimates are between 1.5 and 2%.

-presented with facts

"dream land!!"

;D

 

[Irvinecommuter]

You guys are overanalyzing 2017. It's quite simple, the Simpsons rule: while we all know Lisa is smarter, we will always root for for Bart. Bart will stick it to the man. No one likes a Ms. know-it-all.

I don't know about 2017...not much happened electorally in 2017.

You seem to believe that somehow Trump is Bart when in reality, he is Mr. Burns.  He is part of the "man" and has shown he cares more about his own interests as well as his corporate/rich friends than the common person.  I don't even blame people for voting for him in 2016, but if you vote for him 2020, it's out of pure spite and anger.

You're talking about what happened after the election. I'm talking about why people voted for Trump. During the campaign, Trump did not talk about his rich friends, he talked about helping the forgotten common people.

HRC displayed her Liberal contempt for the common people during the campaign by:
1) Calling the common people deplorable.
2) Conspire with the DNC to rig the primary election in her favor.
3) Gave a secret speech to Goldman Sachs were she told them to basically ignore what she says about helping the common people.

Yes...I know.  Trump was the ultimate con man...of course only Trumpsters believed the con and continued to believe it. 

She called Trumpsters deplorable...a sentiment that has bared to be mostly reality 3 years later. 

You clearly missed my post above regarding 2016 election.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Did the Dems win the mid-terms? I think they did even though Kings and morekaos won't admit it, so that could be an indicator of 2020. What has the pattern been for previous presidents/terms when it comes to mid-term results?

Is it seasonal?

let's compare trump and obama, since everyone loves to make that comparison.

obama lost 63 seats to republicans in the house and 6 seats in the senate in his first midterm

trump lost 40 seats to dems in the house and gained 2 seats in the senate

i'll let you draw your own conclusions from those results

You keep living your dream land...the shift in 2010 to 2012 economically was massive and that's what kept Obama in power.  2009 GDP fell by 2.6% and 2010, it went up by 2.5% (net swing of 5.1%),  2011...it went up 1.6% and 2012 it went up 2.2.

So unless Trump's GDP numbers hit above 4%...you are not going to have that economic argument in 2020.  The fact that Trump is only at 43% with a decent economy is telling. 

2nd quarter is going to be interesting...estimates are between 1.5 and 2%.

-presented with facts

"dream land!!"

;D

Well...it's definitely dreamland if you don't think GOP lost badly in 2018. 

Still waiting for that annual growth over 4% that Trump promised...and for the next 10 years.

 

[fortune11]

This is juvenile crap but here we go since nothing else seems to be getting through

S&P500 Equity market returns during Obama tenure = 2270/927 minus 1 = 144 percent over 8 years , so 12 percent CAGR

Do the same thing for trumps 2.5 years so far and you get 11 percent CAGR .

And this is happening despite the largest corporate tax cut in a generation

Again this is not how I judge presidents but for those who use the stock market as an gauge to justify voting for a racist

Reposting it again

All of you oc repubs made a ton of more money under Obama but kept cursing him anyways

Trump has taken what could have been a steady growth pattern and increased recovery and turned it upside down . But you still love him - again, tribal instinct

IC is 100 percent correct here . Don?t couch your reptilian instincts by arguing for 10 paragraphs about reasons why . It is a lot more basic than that .

 

[Kings]

This is juvenile crap but here we go since nothing else seems to be getting through

S&P500 Equity market returns during Obama tenure = 2270/927 minus 1 = 144 percent over 8 years , so 12 percent CAGR

Do the same thing for trumps 2.5 years so far and you get 11 percent CAGR .

And this is happening despite the largest corporate tax cut in a generation

Again this is not how I judge presidents but for those who use the stock market as an gauge to justify voting for a racist

Reposting it again

All of you oc repubs made a ton of more money under Obama but kept cursing him anyways

Trump has taken what could have been a steady growth pattern and increased recovery and turned it upside down . But you still love him - again, tribal instinct

IC is 100 percent correct here . Don?t couch your reptilian instincts by arguing for 10 paragraphs about reasons why . It is a lot more basic than that .

except you should know the markets trade on future sentiment, so instead of using biased results and omitting 10% runup after trump was elected in nov 2016, allow me correct the record

s&p 11/4/08: 1,005
s&p 11/7/16: 2,131

obama cagr: 10%

s&p 11/8/16: 2,139
s&p 7/16/19: 3,004

trump cagr: 15%

 

[eyephone]

Million dollar question. Should Melania and her parents go back where they came from?