Tesla Solar Panels Price Cut

[Irvinecommuter]

It?s all about demand. The supply is there.

Watch when the 30% goes. Then the demand will drop and the price will drop.

(Economics 101)

It depends on a lot of factors....for example PG&E is going to start raise rates because of all the wildfire its causing.  Utility will have to step up their fire preventation budgets...which means higher rates.  At some point, there will be a tipping point where people will install solar/batteries to get out of the grid.  The profileration of EV cars is another factor.

When a customer installs solar panels, it hurts the utility in two ways.

One, it reduces demand for utility power. Utilities generally don?t want lower demand. To justify building stuff, they need to be able to project higher demand.

Two, the more solar customers reduce their utility bills by generating their own power, the more utilities have to charge other, non-solar customers more, to cover their costs-plus-returns. This pisses the other customers off. And it incentivizes them to install solar themselves!

Utilities are terrified of the ?death spiral? that could ensue as more customers are driven to generate their own power. So they are increasingly fighting back.

?The utilities? response,? McKinsey writes, ?has been to design rates that reduce the incentive to install solar by moving to time-of-use pricing structures, implementing demand charges, or trying to reduce how much they pay customers for the electricity they produce that is exported to the grid.?

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/7/7/15927250/utilities-rooftop-solar-batteries

It's playing out very similarly to the cable tv industry where the internet speed finally makes it possible for streaming to be a viable alternative. 

 

[eyephone]

Compare it to the cable industry and streaming. Sorry it?s not the same. Also, cable companies are still making money and turning a profit. I don?t think I can say that about solar companies.

A person can get a roku or Apple TV device for cheap. You can?t say that about solar panels.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Compare it to the cable industry and streaming. Sorry it?s not the same. Also, cable companies are still making money and turning a profit. I don?t think I can say that about solar companies.

A person can get a roku or Apple TV device for cheap. You can?t say that about solar panels.

Cable TV is losing money due to cord cutters...not because Roku/Apple TV.  Cable companies are making money on providing internet service and merging with content producers.  solar companies just provide the initial set up...no long term commitments like high speed internet.

AT&T lost a net 544,000 premium TV subscribers, a category that includes DirecTV satellite and U-verse television customers. Analysts had expected a loss of 385,000 customers across DirecTV and U-verse, according to research firm FactSet.

Pay-TV providers have struggled to keep customers as viewers move to streaming services like Netflix Inc. AT&T has launched its own streaming service, but that too lost customers in the quarter.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...s-pay-tv-subscribers-bleed-away-idUSKCN1S01AT

NEW YORK (AP) ? Comcast is still losing U.S. cable customers but is racking up more internet subscribers and has gotten a revenue boost from Sky, its big bet on European TV.

The Philadelphia company said Wednesday that it lost 29,000 U.S. cable customers in the fourth quarter but added 351,000 internet subscribers. It also gained customers in its new cellphone-plan business.


The company is dealing with a growing number of people who are cutting their cable bundles to save money, enticed by Netflix and several other companies offering cheaper streaming services.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/comcast-loses-cable-users-but-internet-subscribers-rise/

 

[woodburyowner]

Prices ARE dropping while efficiency of the panels are increasing.  When I first started getting quotes 5 years ago, the prices were $4/watt.  Then a few years ago I revisited the cost and it was $3.50/watt.  Now the cost is $3/watt.  These are all pre-tax credit numbers.  Tesla is setting a new lower bar with a transparent $3/watt price.  Hopefully this will translate into some further downward price pressure from competitors.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Prices ARE dropping while efficiency of the panels are increasing.  When I first started getting quotes 5 years ago, the prices were $4/watt.  Then a few years ago I revisited the cost and it was $3.50/watt.  Now the cost is $3/watt.  These are all pre-tax credit numbers.  Tesla is setting a new lower bar with a transparent $3/watt price.  Hopefully this is translate into some further downward price pressure from competitors.

Yeah...Tesla didn't sell me it with the rebate price factored in. 

Also with financing, my payment would be like $200-$300 a month....it would be like writing a check to Tesla instead of Edison monthly.

Edit:  It would be more like $400 but still.

 

[eyephone]

Wait more for prime time.

Prices ARE dropping while efficiency of the panels are increasing.  When I first started getting quotes 5 years ago, the prices were $4/watt.  Then a few years ago I revisited the cost and it was $3.50/watt.  Now the cost is $3/watt.  These are all pre-tax credit numbers.  Tesla is setting a new lower bar with a transparent $3/watt price.  Hopefully this will translate into some further downward price pressure from competitors.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

It depends on a lot of factors....for example PG&E is going to start raise rates because of all the wildfire its causing.  Utility will have to step up their fire preventation budgets...which means higher rates.  At some point, there will be a tipping point where people will install solar/batteries to get out of the grid.  The profileration of EV cars is another factor.

When a customer installs solar panels, it hurts the utility in two ways.

One, it reduces demand for utility power. Utilities generally don?t want lower demand. To justify building stuff, they need to be able to project higher demand.

Two, the more solar customers reduce their utility bills by generating their own power, the more utilities have to charge other, non-solar customers more, to cover their costs-plus-returns. This pisses the other customers off. And it incentivizes them to install solar themselves!

Utilities are terrified of the ?death spiral? that could ensue as more customers are driven to generate their own power. So they are increasingly fighting back.

?The utilities? response,? McKinsey writes, ?has been to design rates that reduce the incentive to install solar by moving to time-of-use pricing structures, implementing demand charges, or trying to reduce how much they pay customers for the electricity they produce that is exported to the grid.?

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/7/7/15927250/utilities-rooftop-solar-batteries

It's playing out very similarly to the cable tv industry where the internet speed finally makes it possible for streaming to be a viable alternative. 

I agree.

The automotive industry is moving to EVs and with rising electricity rates (like rising cable costs), people will look for ways to decrease their expenses.

The bigger picture here is as more homes adopt solar, as I've mentioned before, is we become group generators rather than just consumers and that will help everyone as a whole.

It may even help lower gas prices (over $4 a gallon what?!?) as people become less dependent on fossil fuel.

 

[eyephone]

Compare it to the cable industry and streaming. Sorry it?s not the same. Also, cable companies are still making money and turning a profit. I don?t think I can say that about solar companies.

Is the solar company going to be around in 10 years to service or honor the warranty of the solar panels? I don?t lnlw

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Compare it to the cable industry and streaming. Sorry it?s not the same. Also, cable companies are still making money and turning a profit. I don?t think I can say that about solar companies.

Is the solar company going to be around in 10 years to service or honor the warranty of the solar panels? I don?t lnlw

Yes.  Because most panels have both manufacture and installer warranties.  Panels warranties are between 12-25 years.  Battery warranties are 10 years.
https://news.energysage.com/shopping-solar-panels-pay-attention-to-solar-panels-warranty/

I mean...you get no warranty with most home improvements.  And best you get the 4/10 year statute of limitation to sue.

 

[zubs]

The biggest plus for me to have solar is that during the summer, I will actively turn off my AC because I am cheap.
Now with solar, I will be able to set my AC at 70 degrees and leave it on w/o thinking about ever turning it off.
Plus in 8 years it will be paid off.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

The biggest plus for me to have solar is that during the summer, I will actively turn off my AC because I am cheap.
Now with solar, I will be able to set my AC at 70 degrees and leave it on w/o thinking about ever turning it off.
Plus in 8 years it will be paid off.

Agreed...you can use electricity whenever you want and with the new time slot usage system, it's going to be a serious issue.

 

[eyephone]

Compare it to the cable industry and streaming. Sorry it?s not the same. Also, cable companies are still making money and turning a profit. I don?t think I can say that about solar companies.

Is the solar company going to be around in 10 years to service or honor the warranty of the solar panels? I don?t lnlw

Yes.  Because most panels have both manufacture and installer warranties.  Panels warranties are between 12-25 years.  Battery warranties are 10 years.
https://news.energysage.com/shopping-solar-panels-pay-attention-to-solar-panels-warranty/

I mean...you get no warranty with most home improvements.  And best you get the 4/10 year statute of limitation to sue.

Have you taken a look at the financials of top public solar comapanies?

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Compare it to the cable industry and streaming. Sorry it?s not the same. Also, cable companies are still making money and turning a profit. I don?t think I can say that about solar companies.

Is the solar company going to be around in 10 years to service or honor the warranty of the solar panels? I don?t lnlw

Yes.  Because most panels have both manufacture and installer warranties.  Panels warranties are between 12-25 years.  Battery warranties are 10 years.
https://news.energysage.com/shopping-solar-panels-pay-attention-to-solar-panels-warranty/

I mean...you get no warranty with most home improvements.  And best you get the 4/10 year statute of limitation to sue.

Have you taken a look at the financials of top public solar comapanies?

Have you looked the financials for most home improvement contractors?  I get your concern but solar is to stay...companies will get bought and sold but it will be around.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

As an aside, my electric offered to buy my electricity from a solar farm. But it will cost me 15% more because they said it costs more for renewable energy than non-renewable.

Bullocks!!

 

[eyephone]

Compare it to the cable industry and streaming. Sorry it?s not the same. Also, cable companies are still making money and turning a profit. I don?t think I can say that about solar companies.

Is the solar company going to be around in 10 years to service or honor the warranty of the solar panels? I don?t lnlw

Yes.  Because most panels have both manufacture and installer warranties.  Panels warranties are between 12-25 years.  Battery warranties are 10 years.
https://news.energysage.com/shopping-solar-panels-pay-attention-to-solar-panels-warranty/

I mean...you get no warranty with most home improvements.  And best you get the 4/10 year statute of limitation to sue.

Have you taken a look at the financials of top public solar comapanies?

Have you looked the financials for most home improvement contractors?  I get your concern but solar is to stay...companies will get bought and sold but it will be around.

Since you won?t break it down I will. Explain the net loss. If the demand is there? Why the net loss?

Maybe they should charge higher for the solar panels come to think of it.

 

[eyephone]

This point in time. Bottom line this is considered a luxury item. It?s not an item that is needed like a refrigerator.

You previously mentioned that your break even point is like 15 years. I think that?s a long time from now.

 

[zubs]

My edison bill is about $135/month, but can get to $220 in the Summer time like AUG. 
This $220/month is with me trying to minimize my electricity usage.  If I were to keep my AC at 70 degrees from JUN - SEP, it would probably be more like $350/month.

So lets say I average $150/month * 12 = $1,800/year

After 10 years I would have paid out $18,000. 
TESLA's website quotes me at around $16,000 (with 30% rebate).

So break even is 9 years plus I can keep my AC at 70 degrees all the time.


Is that worth $16,000 with a possible breakeven in 9 years?..I think so.

Ofcourse if you take the $16,000 and put it into something like AVGO, perhaps you would be even better financially, but then you couldn't keep your AC at 70 degrees all the time!!! 


So yeah it's a luxury item, set it and forget it.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

This point in time. Bottom line this is considered a luxury item. It?s not an item that is needed like a refrigerator.

You previously mentioned that your break even point is like 15 years. I think that?s a long time from now.

No...my break even point assuming my current usage is 10-12 years but that's with small children and no EV.

With one EV and older children...it will be 5 to 8 years.

 

[eyephone]

How about this? Will you move in the future?
(Better job opportunity, rent your current place out)

My edison bill is about $135/month, but can get to $220 in the Summer time like AUG. 
This $220/month is with me trying to minimize my electricity usage.  If I were to keep my AC at 70 degrees from JUN - SEP, it would probably be more like $350/month.

So lets say I average $150/month * 12 = $1,800/year

After 10 years I would have paid out $18,000. 
TESLA's website quotes me at around $16,000 (with 30% rebate).

So break even is 9 years plus I can keep my AC at 70 degrees all the time.


Is that worth $16,000 with a possible breakeven in 9 years?..I think so.

Ofcourse if you take the $16,000 and put it into something like AVGO, perhaps you would be even better financially, but then you couldn't keep your AC at 70 degrees all the time!!! 


So yeah it's a luxury item, set it and forget it.

 

[eyephone]

This point in time. Bottom line this is considered a luxury item. It?s not an item that is needed like a refrigerator.

You previously mentioned that your break even point is like 15 years. I think that?s a long time from now.

No...my break even point assuming my current usage is 10-12 years but that's with small children and no EV.

With one EV and older children...it will be 5 to 8 years.

People can?t even plan what they want to do next weekend or during the summer better yet 10 plus years.

Too much of a commitment.