Tesla Model 3

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Kings said:
so firmware that is installed OTA can determine how fast the car can brake....sounds like an invitation for hackers to tap in and cause mass mayhem
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Tesla is actually way better at netsec than other autos. As bad as they are at mass production, they are in another league when it comes to the vehicle computers, in both functionality and security.

Fiat Chrysler.. not so much. In fact, your mass mayhem scenario could have been made to happen easily with a couple million Jeeps and other Fiat/Chrysler vehicles in 2015.

Great and hilarious talk of how these guys could take over millions of vehicles remotely (including controlling braking.. and steering... and gas...). If you have 45 minutes to spare, this is a great talk to watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OobLb1McxnI


Another talk at the same con where they tried to hack a Model S. Pretty boring, basically an ad for how good Tesla security is:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX_0c9R4Fng
 
Jack Rickard posted his notes from his in-progress teardown. He is very impressed with the battery.
http://evtv.me/2018/05/tesla-model-3-gone-battshit/

"But I guess what I was expecting was a tamed down/toned down Model S ? smaller, less power, but basically a miniS for the masses. And I was hoping the disappointments would be minimal and mostly about things I didn?t care about too much."

"But the really stunning thing is that ALL electronics and technology in the Model 3 are VERY next generation with NOTHING familiar from the Model S in any way shape or form. I haven?t seen ANYTHING even vaguely Model S or X in the vehicle. NOTHING. No DNA found. And the improvement, from what I can tell at this early stage, is not at all incremental. It?s like its from another planet."


"The combined charger/dc-dc converter is a thorough MARVEL inside. We will be looking more closely at this in the future but it again has NO apparent relationship to any previous Tesla charge circuitry, and they squeeze 10kW of charger into a remarkably small and cool running package."

"And so my assertion in the video and more emphatically so at this point, given the level of advanced technology and integration I?m seeing in this battery assembly, and assuming the same level of effort from the Panasonic team at the chemistry/cell level, this is the BEST most ADVANCED large scale lithium battery every produced on planet and is YEARS ahead of anything currently in work. Tesla appears to be saying to the rest of the industry, ?We?ve upped our game? so UP YOURS!?
 
morekaos said:
The bloom is off the rose 🥀

UBS: Sell Tesla shares because carmaker will need to raise capital in the fourth quarter or earlier

UBS reaffirms its sell rating for Tesla shares, predicting the company will need to raise capital by year-end.
In April, Tesla said in a statement it did not request uire an additional capital raise this year apart from credit lines.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/31/ubs-sell-tesla-shares-because-carmaker-will-need-to-raise-capital-in-the-fourth-quarter-or-earlier.html
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tesla making promises to investors they can't keep??
 
Internal documents reveal Tesla is blowing through an insane amount of raw material and cash to make Model 3s, and production is still a nightmare

Tesla is wasting a jaw-dropping amount of raw material and cash to make the Model 3.

Internal documents reviewed by Business Insider show that the company expects that as much as 40% of the raw materials used to produce batteries and driving units manufactured at Tesla's Gigafactory in Nevada need to be scrapped or reworked by employees before they are sent to Tesla's factory in Fremont, California, and assembled into Model 3s. The documents were dated in the first quarter.

That is to say, for every 2,500 battery packs and driving units that leave the Gigafactory, an additional 1,000 pieces of "nonconforming material" is created. Half of that will be reworked and put into other car parts. The other half becomes scrap.

Tesla has spent almost $150 million on scrap materials so far this year, according to internal estimates Business Insider has seen. That number does not include the overhead cost of creating that scrap (energy, labor hours, etc.). Tesla reported manufacturing 9,766 Model 3s in the first quarter of this year.

http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-3-scrap-waste-high-gigafactory-2018-5?IR=T
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https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/06/tesla-is-laying-off-9-percent-of-its-workforce/?comments=1

A sign they are committed to profitability? Or is it an omen of bankruptcy?

Maybe shedding the solar city cruft.

Interesting retrospect on cashflow in that article:
cashflow.png
 
I don?t think this engenders any confidence

Tesla is asking Model 3 reservation holders for another $2,500 to order their cars

Tesla is allowing all Model 3 reservation holders in North America to order their electric sedans.
If reservation holders place an order they must pay an additional $2,500-- but they won't get a delivery date.
Tesla is pushing to manufacture 5,000 Model 3s per week by the end of this quarter, and to become profitable and cash flow positive in the second half of the year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/28/tesla-model-3-orders-cost-2500-more.html
 
I just canceled my pre-order which I placed during the initial reveal hype.  Was waiting for the dual motor with AWD, but they just seemed so lack luster after seeing several on the streets .  Not sure about the convenience of charging and controlling everything on one giant ipad interface.  I prefer just turning a knob or pressing a button if I want to turn on something like the air conditioner or radio.
 
I'm waiting for the Taycan/Mission E, see what pricing looks like after some options, would probably be more comparable to a Model S though price wise.
 
The original reviewer from the same source called the build quality equal to a 1990's Kia. Now they say it makes $$$. Wonder if the data is just based on the part costs. Add in all the labor and robotics and I doubt seriously there's as high of a profit per vehicle. Their number is practically Apple level margins!

My .02c ROI 
 
Includes labor, more details: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6iI4G8_o7hY&feature=youtu.be


Claim is 36% margin on 48,000 car and 18% of the as of yet non-existent 35k car.

He claims it?s the first profitable EV they have torn down. Doesn?t retract the 90s kia statements as far as I can tell  :)
 
RedComet said:
I just canceled my pre-order which I placed during the initial reveal hype.  Was waiting for the dual motor with AWD, but they just seemed so lack luster after seeing several on the streets .  Not sure about the convenience of charging and controlling everything on one giant ipad interface.  I prefer just turning a knob or pressing a button if I want to turn on something like the air conditioner or radio.
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Looks like you are not the only one...

Tesla shares fall after Needham downgrades to sell, citing possible increase in Model 3 cancellations

"Based on our checks, refunds are outpacing deposits as cancellations accelerate," wrote analyst Rajvindra Gill in the note Thursday. "The reasons are varied: extended wait times, the expiration of the $7,500 credit, and unavailability of the $35k base model."

"In August '17, TSLA cited a refund rate of 12%. Almost a year later, we believe it has doubled and outpaced deposits. Model 3 wait times are currently 4-12 months and with base model not available until mid-2019, consumers could wait until 2020," Gill added.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/19/tesla-shares-fall-after-needham-downgrades-to-sell-citing-possible-in.html
 
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