Tarriffs/Trade War

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Yup. He can?t dispute my posts so he uses the same lines like fake news. It?s getting old. Calls me a lil bitch but cant respond to my posts. To me that sounds like a lil bitch.

fortune11 said:
Eye phone ? these people can never answer a direct question w logic .

Notice all these responses boil down to ? I would rather trump do whatever batshit crazy ass stuff he is doing than _____ insert your favorite MAGA grievance here ______ ?
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I believe the "divisiveness" will widen to the point where, if someone get into a car accident, instead of good Samaritans calling for an ambulance they will check your political affiliation first by your bumper sticker or license plate #, before deciding if they should help you.  At this point cars will need to be equipped with automatic 911 call assist.

People of opposing political affiliations will also speak and dress differently.  It starts with choice words, slangs, and MAGA hats and will evolve into dialects, fashion, and schools.  We may also face the possibility of splitting the country into two or more opposing districts and contested areas.

The American hegemony will erode and by then, East Asia and Russia will both suffer from demographic decline while Western Europe legalize Sharia family courts.  Like the pre-WW1 talking heads who predicted world affairs would continue to be dominated by traditional European powers, their predictions will be turned upside down as new regional powers rise and go to war over declining freshwater resources.  Those living in overcrowded and decaying urban centers, Soylent Green comes to mind.

If I'm still alive, you'll find me on a mountain somewhere with reasonably large supply cache, shotgun on the wall next to Twisted Hillbilly girl calendar, busy printing my own dentures on the 3D printer.  Small efficient farming drones will be working in my garden, while my kitchen helper 3000 drone will humanely zap a squirrel by the window to death, clean/dress the squirrel and chuck it in the oven with canned mushroom gravy.
 
momopi said:
I believe the "divisiveness" will widen to the point where, if someone get into a car accident, instead of good Samaritans calling for an ambulance they will check your political affiliation first by your bumper sticker or license plate #, before deciding if they should help you.  At this point cars will need to be equipped with automatic 911 call assist.

People of opposing political affiliations will also speak and dress differently.  It starts with choice words, slangs, and MAGA hats and will evolve into dialects, fashion, and schools.  We may also face the possibility of splitting the country into two or more opposing districts and contested areas.

The American hegemony will erode and by then, East Asia and Russia will both suffer from demographic decline while Western Europe legalize Sharia family courts.  Like the pre-WW1 talking heads who predicted world affairs would continue to be dominated by traditional European powers, their predictions will be turned upside down as new regional powers rise and go to war over declining freshwater resources.  Those living in overcrowded and decaying urban centers, Soylent Green comes to mind.

If I'm still alive, you'll find me on a mountain somewhere with reasonably large supply cache, shotgun on the wall next to Twisted Hillbilly girl calendar, busy printing my own dentures on the 3D printer.  Small efficient farming drones will be working in my garden, while my kitchen helper 3000 drone will humanely zap a squirrel by the window to death, clean/dress the squirrel and chuck it in the oven with canned mushroom gravy.
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the crocodile tears on display at capitol hill today lead me to believe everything you say will come to fruition.  if the dems fall further down the rabbit hole of emotion and irrational behavior, then i will see you on the neighboring mountainside.
 
I?ll havw to go back and check but I got out of the market at around 26,700 and missed the run up to 27,200. I knew the tariffs would come back to mess with the market. As other have said here, China won?t concede until they have to. They will try to wait out for the elections next year and take it from there.

I?ll see how the market does in next couple of days and take it from there.
 
Can someone please give Trump a call and tell him to make these announcements on Friday 5pm EST so that the markets are closed and everyone can cool off over the weekend...

C'mon, Don!
 
I just had lunch with one of my institutional clients who lives in China and runs a fairly large manufacturing company. He confides they are dying and the government can?t or won?t admit it. Says things are much worse than we know and they are near a breaking point, concedes the tariffs are devastating them. Thinks they will eventually break and deal...we shall see what we shall see.
 
morekaos said:
I just had lunch with one of my institutional clients who lives in China and runs a fairly large manufacturing company. He confides they are dying and the government can?t or won?t admit it. Says things are much worse than we know and they are near a breaking point, concedes the tariffs are devastating them. Thinks they will eventually break and deal...we shall see what we shall see.
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Unless Irvinecommuter is right about the Chicom's superhuman ability to endure hardship.
 
So every time Trump adds more tariffs to China, it seems the move has already been priced into the stock market.  Wall street hardly moves, and if it goes down, it goes back up a few days later.

If tariffs are so bad, why is the DOW still at 26,000+?
Does it mean we would be at 30,000 DOW if there were no tariffs?

I find the way Trump uses tariffs to force other countries to do what he wants a very useful move.  I'm not sure if any other president would have had the balls to do the same.


Saying that, I still find trump a racist rapist asshole....but sometimes you need to use an asshole to fight foreign assholes.  Obama seems like too much of a pussy when looked at in this light.


Yeah i sound like the south park movie.
 
The story is really believable or maybe not. Coming from you I don?t know. I mean you even recommended people to invest with fidelity, but you are supposingly a financial advisor so it doesnt make sense. I would think you want people to invest with you.

morekaos said:
I just had lunch with one of my institutional clients who lives in China and runs a fairly large manufacturing company. He confides they are dying and the government can?t or won?t admit it. Says things are much worse than we know and they are near a breaking point, concedes the tariffs are devastating them. Thinks they will eventually break and deal...we shall see what we shall see.
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I have an exceedingly hard time separating my approval for some of the things he has done from my disdain at the fact that he doesn't have the slightest clue wtf he's doing. 
 
I deal with mfg in China.  One of the plants already had plans to move to Vietnam last year, and is now 60% operational.  All their US customers are asking them to make parts in their new plant, but the production capacity is just not there yet. 


Plants that are not in China are getting inundated with inquiries.  So much so that they are ignoring buyer requests for quotes.  A few years ago, it use to be the other way around where the !china plant solicited business from US companies.


I also talked to a Chinese plant owner earlier this year, and he was just all fuck trump fuck trump fuck trump.

Anyways, China's fake news team really need to up their game vs. Trumps 2020 re-election campaign.
It'll be pooh bear vs. putin.  Who can out fake news the American public the best?

Who will win the fake news championship belt?  Russia or China?  The battle is on.
 
...and they fold like an envelope...endless comedy

Trump announces deal to expand US beef exports in the EU ? and jokes about Mercedes, BMW tariffs

Through the beef agreement, Trump in part aims to de-escalate trade tensions with the European Union. Earlier this year, the administration delayed a decision on slapping duties on European cars and auto parts.

He put a momentary scare into European officials at the White House on Friday when he brought up car tariffs unprompted.

?We?re working on a deal where the European Union will agree to pay a 25% tariff on all Mercedes-Benzes, BMWs coming into our nation, so we appreciate that,? the president said.

?I?m only kidding,? he continued, sparking laughter in the room. ?They started to get a little bit worried. Thank you. Congratulations. Best beef in the world, thank you very much!?

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/02/trump-trade-announcement-on-eu.html
 
Cherry picking business that depend largely on exports to the US, or another business that is less dependent on exports is not going to give you the larger picture.  Regardless, the trade war simply accelerated the relocation of manufacturing to lower cost regions.

In 2007 the daily labor wage in Burma was roughly comparable to hourly wage in Beijing at ~$1 USD.  In 2017-2018 this is still true -- 4800 kyat daily wage in Burma vs 22 RMB hourly wage in Beijing, or $3.17 USD.

Working 6 days/week, the monthly wage in Burma is ~$80 USD, in Bangladesh ~$95 USD,  and in Vietnam $120-$150 USD.  In China you'd easily pay twice vs Vietnam.  Although Vietnam is more expensive than Burma and Bangladesh, the proximity to China's suppliers make Vietnam attractive.  Korea, Japan, and Taiwan got a head start in Vietnam.  Samsung alone accounts for nearly 1/4 of Vietnam's exports by value.  China has been pouring money in SEZ's in Burma and Bangladesh, becoming the top foreign investor in both countries.  In the garment industry that's extremely price sensitive (buyers/sellers negotiate over fractions of a penny) the lower labor cost in Burma and Bangladesh holds strong advantage.


On the other side of the world, EPAM has been growing rapidly in Eastern Europe.  The IT industry in Ukraine is booming and software engineers only cost $500-$600/month locally.  Over the past few years I've observed a decline in India outsourcing, replaced by EPAM & Eastern Europeans.  I've also observed entire (IT) business units turned into complete outsource solutions.  But considering white collar IT workers tend to lean left in the political spectrum, I don't expect Trump to raise a stink over it.
 
daedalus said:
I have an exceedingly hard time separating my approval for some of the things he has done from my disdain at the fact that he doesn't have the slightest clue wtf he's doing.
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Same.

I like the disruption but not the bullying.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
daedalus said:
I have an exceedingly hard time separating my approval for some of the things he has done from my disdain at the fact that he doesn't have the slightest clue wtf he's doing.
Click to expand...

Same.

I like the disruption but not the bullying.
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The disruption is just an unconcious side effect of the bullying and his self serving instincts.
 
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