Tarriffs/Trade War

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Even the failing New York Times has come around....

?The game had to be called? ? NYT?s Thomas Friedman praises Trump for taking China trade action

Tom Friedman, the Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist and best-selling author, says President Trump was right to go after China on trade.
However, he says he was proponent of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, not the tariff strategy being pursued by the president.
?The structure of U.S.-China trade had changed, and the game had to be called, in this sense,? Friedman tells CNBC.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/15/new-york-times-tom-friedman-praises-trump-for-taking-china-trade-action.html
 
So say I'm buying stuff from China.

They are charging me 25% more due to Trump.

But realistically they should be charging me less because they are getting 10% back from Jinping?

Maybe that's why no one is talking about #maxrebates. :)
 
The export rebate has always been given to Chinese factories by the CCP.  It was less before the Trump tariffs.  It's now become 10% or more.
It's one of the sticking points in the tariff negotiations.

China used these export rebate tax credits to become the worlds number 1 factory and lift their people from poverty.  But I wonder how they can sell stuff so cheaply.  The input costs are still very expensive.  Is it true that China is running out of USD and other hard currencies?  Kyle Bass thinks a free floating RMB would be 9 to 1 instead of 7.1 right now.


If people knew it was going to 9 to 1, China would have a run to turn their RMBs into Irvine housing.  ..oh wait that already happened and still is happening....while pooh bear tries to plug the holes.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
So say I'm buying stuff from China.

They are charging me 25% more due to Trump.

But realistically they should be charging me less because they are getting 10% back from Jinping?

Maybe that's why no one is talking about #maxrebates. :)
Click to expand...

I buy stuff from China.  I ask my vendors to lower the price due to trump tariffs.  They give me about 6-8%.  This is because RMB was 6.8 and now is 7.1 as well as the export rebate going up.  So as an importer you're really looking at about a 17% cost increase on a 25% tariff.
 
Kanye West Says Yeezys Will be Made in America
"For me, as a founder, it?s really important to bring these jobs back to America," West said. Within the next two years, he plans to make Yeezys and "injection molded shoes" in U.S. factories as well as hire workers through prison reform systems.

Along with bolstering the American economy, West says moving manufacturing closer to home will allow for more control over his product.
Click to expand...
https://www.complex.com/sneakers/2019/10/kanye-west-yeezys-made-in-america
 
morekaos said:
I just had lunch with one of my institutional clients who lives in China and runs a fairly large manufacturing company. He confides they are dying and the government can?t or won?t admit it. Says things are much worse than we know and they are near a breaking point, concedes the tariffs are devastating them. Thinks they will eventually break and deal...we shall see what we shall see.
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Royal Flush....Can't say I didn't tell you...

Donald Trump signs 'phase one' of trade deal with China which ends escalation of his trade war?and complains about the 'impeachment hoax' at White House ceremony with Xi Jinping's deputy looking on

Donald Trump took a victory lap on Wednesday as he signed a trade deal with China at the White House as his impeachment sped towards the Senate on Capitol Hill.

He boasted to an audience of dignitaries that a new trade deal with China will bring 'a future of fair and reciprocal trade,' then complained about the 'impeachment hoax,' and praised a string of Republican senators who he needs to vote for his acquittal.

The president has long complained about a massive trade deficit between Washington and Beijing. He pledged during the 2016 campaign to come down hard on China.

'We are righting the wrongs of the past,' he said Wednesday, observing that 'our negotiations were tough, honest, open and respectful.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7889301/US-China-set-sign-vital-trade-truce.html
 
So where is the trade war headline now? Is this how MAGA, by fear of pandemic?

Trade war is Muted!!! This trade war was a big deal, is not a big deal anymore.

China not giving in, the two major economy US and China started decoupling from each other, oh by the way sometimes in December 2019 almost the same time when the corona virus discovered. The covid 19 is use now as reason to stop traveling. In reality, the United States, isolation is more apparent now more than ever.
 
The trade war, whether by design or accident allowed us to decouple and forced manufacturing to offshore from china to avoid the trade barriers.  In hindsight it now puts even more pressure on china to come to heel.  They need us now more than ever and will relent at any future negotiations.  Our insulation, started by the trade war now works to our advantage....Check!
 
Neither side believe they need one more than the other. We think we can dictate China, while China say your consumers need our goods more. It was an interconnected, intertwine economy for a very long time. Otherwise the negotiations would allow trade agreement to making progress at a much further pace. The Chinese have more trading with Europe and South America than we do. Bring supplies chain back here is the most desirable directive, how long would it takes? It took 30 plus year to have the build up the supplies chain in China.

So why everywhere else increase in infections and death but China seem to hold steady? Are you sure China need us more? Check
 
If you had to argue which economy is in better shape right now, I think we hold the advantage.  We shall see what phase 2 negotiations produce but China will need help.  Again, this reminds me of 1997, when Asia caught another type of virus, a financial one.  Total collapse of every currency in the region and who was there to pick them up of the ground (Brady Bonds)?  The good old US of A!
 

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Like I said...by design or by luck, it was the right move.

Coronavirus shows Donald Trump was right all this time about China


Donald Trump has been insisting for years that our country has been too economically dependent on China, so it is sad that it took a global public health crisis to prove he was right all this time. When he began imposing strategic tariffs on China in response to its long history of abusive trade practices, the liberals all of a sudden became free trade fundamentalists, predicting that this new ?trade war? would harm the American economy because we have relied so heavily on cheap Chinese imports for so many years. Instead, it was the Chinese economy that took a hard hit, while our economy at home surged to its strongest performance in half a century.

What happened? The answer is simple. Just as manufacturers had once moved their factories to China to take advantage of cheap labor, weak regulations, and lower tariffs on exports to developed economies, these companies are now fleeing China for other countries that offer similar business advantages without all of the political baggage from Beijing.

The coronavirus outbreak around the world could dramatically accelerate the manufacturing exodus from China, as companies begin to recognize the perils of giving the authoritarian country so much power over their supply chains. After Beijing placed hundreds of millions of its citizens under an oppressive quarantine, effectively shutting down most of its economy for weeks, the need to diversify production locations should have become abundantly clear to business leaders around the world.

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/486671-coronavirus-shows-donald-trump-was-right-all-this-time-about-china
 
Choose on who to believe or what to believe in is up to you. One things is evident is that we are in clearly in a crisis. I rather be alarming and wrong then be complacent.

Nouriel Roubini laid out exactly how the financial market crash of 2008. And here he is laid out what lying ahead. If you think we will have a quick and V shape recovery from the stock market as well as our way of life will be normal from here going forward, then you are delusional or best put faith in the wrong place.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/19/the-white-swan-harbingers-of-global-economic-crisis-are-already-here?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1582097085
 
Not sure what your life experience is like but I have been through lots of tumultuous markets like this and some much worse.  (these are times that real money gets made) Take a hard look at the numbers in this Reuters report dated 2/12/2010...The world survived that and it will survive this too.  Few even remember a pandemic that was ten times worse. These are just the numbers in the US and not near the worldwide numbers.

WORLD NEWSFEBRUARY 12, 2010 / 9:19 AM / 10 YEARS AGO
Swine flu killed up to 17,000 in U.S. - report

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - H1N1 swine flu has killed as many as 17,000 Americans, including 1,800 children, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Friday.

The swine flu pandemic put as many people into the hospital as during the normal influenza season ? but most were younger adults and children instead of the elderly, and it was during the months when usually very little or no flu is circulating, the CDC said.

?CDC estimates that between 41 million and 84 million cases of 2009 H1N1 occurred between April 2009 and January 16, 2010,? the agency said in a statement. Usually the CDC goes with a middle number, which is about 57 million people infected.

Between 8,330 and 17,160 people died during this time from H1N1, with a middle range of about 12,000, CDC said. But between 880 and 1,800 children died, up to 13,000 adults under the age of 65 and only 1,000 to 2,000 elderly.

In a normal flu season, the CDC estimates that 36,000 Americans die of flu but 90 percent are over the age of 65. CDC estimates that 200,000 go into the hospital, again mostly the elderly.

The swine flu pandemic has affected much younger people.

The CDC estimate shows that between 183,000 and 378,000 people were hospitalized with H1N1 swine flu from April to January.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-flu-usa/swine-flu-killed-up-to-17000-in-u-s-report-idUKTRE61B3IP20100212
 
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