<p>Bracing for a Recession</p>
<p><a href="http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,1689224,00.html">http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,1689224,00.html</a></p>
<p>Since the early 1980s, with the exception of that brief downturn during the recession of 1990-91, consumer spending in the U.S. has risen every quarter. Over that period, our pocketbooks have come to commandeer an ever greater portion of the economy, from 62% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 1981 to 70% now. Spending by U.S. consumers accounts for 19% of global economic activity.</p>
<p>This activity has been increasingly fueled by debt. In 1983 household debt equaled 55% of income in the U.S.; now it's above 114% (and above 136% of after-tax disposable income). The middle class--households earning roughly between $20,000 and $100,000 annually--had a debt-to-income ratio of 141% in 2004, according to New York University (NYU) economist Edward Wolff. And he figures it's even higher today. In the third quarter of 2005, the national savings rate (personal income minus spending) went negative for the first time since the Great Depression, and it has bounced back only slightly since.</p>