T-minus ? until Countrywide goes under.. . .

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
<p>So this is welfare for the super rich.</p>

<p>On Thursday, I was over at my soon to be out of business broker buddies, and there was this little guy there who seemed to understand what I was saying about the Deutche Debacle. Turns out he was a manager at a Countrywide ofc which was closed down, but was somehow still "with" CW. I was hoping that he was a loan rep soliciting my bud's business, which would be a really good sign, but when I asked what he did now, he muttered something and left. I raised by eyebrows, and my bud, said, "Looking for a job." </p>

<p>Oh.</p>

<p>So what is CW going to use the money for? Making mtges? Burning it on expenses?</p>
 
<p>CFC Down 11% this morning. Looks like the single digits are on the horizon for this stock. I wonder what Mozillo will say next in the press ? He sure cant pump anymore life in this thing. I would guess the next time the depositors get nervous that will be the last straw. But then he can get another big dump from the FED. I have a feeling history is going to look back on this as a huge mistake that should have been corrected sooner than later. The amount of REO property on their site is astounding. <a href="http://countrywide-foreclosures.blogspot.com/">http://countrywide-foreclosures.blogspot.com/</a></p>

<p> </p>

<p> </p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>I see on your link (p. 16) there are a few Irvine places. </p>

<p>







IRVINE

3238 WATERMARKE PLACE,


IRVINE CA 92612



Condo



JIMMIE CALAHAN

949-581-1100



$319,900.00





<a href="javascript:redirectZ('3238%20WATERMARKE%20PLACE&citystatezip=IRVINE,CA')"><img title="See Listing on Zillow.com" alt="" src="http://www.streamfx.com/CW/images/zillow.gif" /></a>





<a href="javascript:redirectM('3238%20WATERMARKE%20PLACE,IRVINE,CA,92612')"><img title="See Listing on Local Live Maps" alt="" src="http://www.streamfx.com/CW/images/MapIt_LocalLive.gif" /></a>





<a href="javascript:RedFin('3238%20WATERMARKE%20PLACE,IRVINE,CA,92612')"><img title="See Listing on Redfin.com" alt="" src="http://www.streamfx.com/CW/images/redfin.gif" /></a>







IRVINE

67,


IRVINE CA 92614



Condo



PATRICK BARTOLIC

949-463-6328



$439,900.00





<a href="javascript:redirectZ('67&citystatezip=IRVINE,CA')"><img title="See Listing on Zillow.com" alt="" src="http://www.streamfx.com/CW/images/zillow.gif" /></a>





<a href="javascript:redirectM('67,IRVINE,CA,92614')"><img title="See Listing on Local Live Maps" alt="" src="http://www.streamfx.com/CW/images/MapIt_LocalLive.gif" /></a>





<a href="javascript:RedFin('67,IRVINE,CA,92614')"><img title="See Listing on Redfin.com" alt="" src="http://www.streamfx.com/CW/images/redfin.gif" /></a>







IRVINE

141 ISLINGTON,


IRVINE CA 92620



Condo



SEAN STANFIELD

714-421-3377



$544,900.00


<s>$594,900.00</s>





<a href="javascript:redirectZ('141%20ISLINGTON&citystatezip=IRVINE,CA')"><img title="See Listing on Zillow.com" alt="" src="http://www.streamfx.com/CW/images/zillow.gif" /></a>





<a href="javascript:redirectM('141%20ISLINGTON,IRVINE,CA,92620')"><img title="See Listing on Local Live Maps" alt="" src="http://www.streamfx.com/CW/images/MapIt_LocalLive.gif" /></a>





<a href="javascript:RedFin('141%20ISLINGTON,IRVINE,CA,92620')"><img title="See Listing on Redfin.com" alt="" src="http://www.streamfx.com/CW/images/redfin.gif" /></a>







IRVINE

21 ASPEN TREE LANE,


IRVINE CA 92612



PUD



TONY BARTOS

949-640-3600



$861,900.00


<s>$874,900.00</s>





<a href="javascript:redirectZ('21%20ASPEN%20TREE%20LANE&citystatezip=IRVINE,CA')"><img title="See Listing on Zillow.com" alt="" src="http://www.streamfx.com/CW/images/zillow.gif" /></a>





<a href="javascript:redirectM('21%20ASPEN%20TREE%20LANE,IRVINE,CA,92612')"><img title="See Listing on Local Live Maps" alt="" src="http://www.streamfx.com/CW/images/MapIt_LocalLive.gif" /></a>





<a href="javascript:RedFin('21%20ASPEN%20TREE%20LANE,IRVINE,CA,92612')"><img title="See Listing on Redfin.com" alt="" src="http://www.streamfx.com/CW/images/redfin.gif" /></a>







IRVINE

15 BOLINAS,


IRVINE CA 92602



Condo



HERBERT BRICENO

714-544-5456



$532,900.00


<s>$590,000.00</s>









</p>
 
<p>Countrywide closed close to $11.00 per share.</p>

<p>I really don't think it's wise to post people's phone numbers, unless that's the name of realtors who are trying to sell.</p>
 
<p>Shares of Countrywide, the largest U.S. mortgage lender, fell more than 12 percent to $10.52, the lowest in five years.The cost to insure the debt of its home loan unit jumped almost 30 percent to 787 basis points, or $787,000 per year for five years to insure $10 million in debt, according to Markit Intraday.</p>

<p><strong>"Countrywide puts are very active</strong>," said William Lefkowitz, options strategist at brokerage firm vFinance Investments in New York. <strong>"People are buying puts, anticipating that the downward trend will continue."</strong></p>

<p><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/bankingfinancial-SP/idUSN1950183120071119">Reuters</a></p>
 
Interesting tidbit here:



The asking price for all the Countrywide REO's, as of today, is almost $3 billion.

The market cap at close today was $6.12 billion.



As their REO inventory grows, the value may exceed the market cap. I wonder if that has ever happened before?



Very shortly, I would anticiate that they will liquidate in earnest, (why not, the loss is already there - the only thing missing is revenue against the loss). They need the cash, and they will eliminate carrying costs.
 
<p>Google News Alert for: <strong>cfc</strong></p>



<p style="width: 600px;"> <a target="_blank" href="http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2007-11-19T213804Z_01_N19518339_RTRIDST_0_COUNTRYWIDE-RATING-MOODYS.XML" style="color: blue;"> Countrywide senior debt no longer on review-Moody's</a>


Reuters - USA


s (<strong>CFC</strong>.N: Quote, Profile , Research) senior debt under review for a potential downgrade into junk territory, saying the largest US mortgage lender's <strong>...</strong>




<a target="_blank" href="http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ncl=http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx%3Ftype%3DbondsNews%26storyID%3D2007-11-19T213804Z_01_N19518339_RTRIDST_0_COUNTRYWIDE-RATING-MOODYS.XML"> See all stories on this topic</a>

</p>

<p style="width: 600px;"> <a target="_blank" href="http://www.thestreet.com/s/liquidity-concerns-plague-countrywide/newsanalysis/banking/10390906.html?puc=_googlen?cm_ven=GOOGLEN&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA" style="color: blue;"> Liquidity Concerns Plague Countrywide</a>


TheStreet.com - USA


By Liz Rappaport Shares of Countrywide Financial (<strong>CFC</strong> - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) are approaching the single-digits, as bond market pressure seeps into <strong>...</strong>




<a target="_blank" href="http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ncl=http://www.thestreet.com/s/liquidity-concerns-plague-countrywide/newsanalysis/banking/10390906.html%3Fpuc%3D_googlen%3Fcm_ven%3DGOOGLEN%26cm_cat%3DFREE%26cm_ite%3DNA"> See all stories on this topic</a>

</p>

<p style="width: 600px;"> <a target="_blank" href="http://www.marketintelligencecenter.com/articles/479219" style="color: blue;"> Countrywide Financial (<strong>CFC</strong>) NewsBite - Countrywide Tumbles on <strong>...</strong></a>


Market Intelligence Center - Charlottesville,VA,USA


<strong>CFC</strong> is now trading at 10.85, down 1.22 (-10.23%). The stock hit its 52 week high of 45.26 in January and set its 52 week low of 10.25 today. <strong>...</strong>




<a target="_blank" href="http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ncl=http://www.marketintelligencecenter.com/articles/479219"> See all stories on this topic</a>

</p>

<p style="width: 600px;"> <a target="_blank" href="http://wiadomosci.onet.pl/1644135,10,dj_us_stocks_outlook_financials_respite_isn_t_long_lived,item.html" style="color: blue;"> DJ US Stocks Outlook: Financials' Respite Isn't Long-Lived</a>


Onet.pl - Poland


Last week appears to have been the relative calm before another thunderous storm for financial stocks, with Citigroup, Freddie Mac and Countrywide Financial <strong>...</strong>




<a target="_blank" href="http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ncl=http://wiadomosci.onet.pl/1644135,10,dj_us_stocks_outlook_financials_respite_isn_t_long_lived,item.html"> See all stories on this topic</a>

</p>

<p style="width: 600px;"> <a target="_blank" href="http://www.247wallst.com/2007/11/the-52-week--10.html" style="color: blue;"> The 52-Week Low Club (WB)(<strong>CFC</strong>)(WM)(TWX)(GM)</a>


24/7 Wall St. - New York,NY,USA


CountryWide Financial (<strong>CFC</strong>) Falls to $10.25 from 52-week high of $45.26. Washington Mutual (WM) Down to $18.25 from 52-week high of $46.38. <strong>...</strong>




<a target="_blank" href="http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ncl=http://www.247wallst.com/2007/11/the-52-week--10.html"> See all stories on this topic</a>

</p>

<p style="width: 600px;"> <a target="_blank" href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/54731-monday-s-options-report-gm-xly-xlb-auo-cfc-echostar-clearchannel" style="color: blue;"> Monday's Options Report: GM, XLY, XLB, AUO, <strong>CFC</strong>, Echostar <strong>...</strong></a>


Seeking Alpha - New York,NY,USA


(<strong>CFC</strong>) – Shares in Countrywide Financial slid another 10.5% to $10.80 this morning, with some 64000 options in play in concert with a 33% climb in implied <strong>...</strong>




<a target="_blank" href="http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ncl=http://seekingalpha.com/article/54731-monday-s-options-report-gm-xly-xlb-auo-cfc-echostar-clearchannel"> See all stories on this topic</a>

</p>

<p style="width: 600px;"> <a target="_blank" href="http://www.minyanville.com/articles/CFC-DISH-ETFC-phrm-GCO/index/a/14930" style="color: blue;"> Winners & Sinners: Pharmion, Countrywide Financial...</a>


<a target="_blank" href="http://minyanville.com/">Minyanville.com</a> - New York,USA


Countrywide Financial (<strong>CFC</strong>) is also under pressure on news that investors may sell $4 bln of the company's debt. THIS CONTENT IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES <strong>...</strong>




<a target="_blank" href="http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ncl=http://www.minyanville.com/articles/CFC-DISH-ETFC-phrm-GCO/index/a/14930"> See all stories on this topic</a>

</p>

<p style="width: 600px;"> <a target="_blank" href="http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/840173/" style="color: blue;"> Mortgage services companies slide on housing concern; stocks hit <strong>...</strong></a>


Trading Markets (press release) - Los Angeles,CA,USA


NEW YORK, Nov 20, 2007 (Thomson Financial via COMTEX) -- <strong>CFC</strong> | charts | news | PowerRating -- Shares of mortgage services companies dropped sharply Monday, <strong>...</strong>




<a target="_blank" href="http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ncl=http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%2520News/840173/"> See all stories on this topic</a>





<p style="width: 600px;"> <a target="_blank" href="http://www.reuters.com/article/bankingfinancial-SP/idUSN1950183120071120" style="color: blue;"> UPDATE 1-Countrywide shares plunge, default swaps surge</a>


Reuters - USA


s (<strong>CFC</strong>.N: Quote, Profile, Research) shares plunged and the cost to insure its debt surged on Monday as concerns about losses by subprime mortgage borrowers <strong>...</strong>




<a target="_blank" href="http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ncl=http://www.reuters.com/article/bankingfinancial-SP/idUSN1950183120071120"> See all stories on this topic</a>

</p>

<p style="width: 600px;"> <a target="_blank" href="http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/5314712.html" style="color: blue;"> Moody's Maintains Countrywide's Rating</a>


Houston Chronicle - United States


© 2007 AP NEW YORK — Credit-rating agency Moody's on Monday maintained its rating on Countrywide Financial Corp.'s credit, but established a "negative" <strong>...</strong>




<a target="_blank" href="http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ncl=http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/5314712.html"> See all stories on this topic</a>

</p>

<p style="width: 600px;"> <a target="_blank" href="http://www.ad-hoc-news.de/CorporateNews/en/14258236/Schubert-&-Reed-LLP-Issues-Notice-of-Pendency-of-Class" style="color: blue;"> Schubert & Reed LLP Issues Notice of</a>


Ad-Hoc-News (Pressemitteilung) - Germany


The only assets of CCV are junior subordinated deferrable interest debentures issued by Countrywide Financial Corporation (NYSE:<strong>CFC</strong>)(? <strong>...</strong>




<a target="_blank" href="http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ncl=http://www.ad-hoc-news.de/CorporateNews/en/14258236/Schubert-%26-Reed-LLP-Issues-Notice-of-Pendency-of-Class"> See all stories on this topic</a>

</p>



</p>
 
<p>I have to give Countrywide some credit. . .it is like a cockroach. . you just cannot kill it. I mean despite all the bad news and Freddie Mac nearing collapse, CFC stock is still in the green today.</p>

<p> </p>
 
IC



I would make book it closes at $10.00. The only volume is the shorts doing their thing. Who in the world would buy this "Turkey" for the holiday. The FNM issue is IMHO going to be the "rats in the kitchen" compared to CFC the cockroach. We got major vermon with Freddy & Fannie. They are going to get slammed and guess who will bail them out. Thats right. The Taxpayers. They are holding so much on the books that is yet to be marked to market. These stocks have lost almost 50% in a few short weeks with more to come. Billions in market cap vaporized.
 
<p>Countrywide Debt Risk Soars on Speculation of Funding Shortage </p>

<p><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akbkMGGjU8TM&refer=home">http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akbkMGGjU8TM&refer=home</a></p>

<p>Credit-default swap investors started demanding upfront payments to take on the risk that the biggest U.S. mortgage lender will default in the next five years. </p>

<p>...</p>

<p>The prices imply a 54 percent chance that Calabasas, California-based Countrywide won't make its debt payments in the next five years, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. valuation model used by Bloomberg. </p>
 
<p>Hmm, market cap at $5.4B, REO inventory with a list price of $3B (probably worth $1.5B).</p>

<p>I'd guess another couple bucks and it's ripe for Milkenesque takeover, gutting and asset sale.</p>
 
Too bad my October puts expired worthless. I was too early.





<img src="http://img702.mytextgraphics.com/photolava/2007/11/20/cfc1120-48kgxo08z.jpg" alt="" />
 
<p>Isn't REO more than 3 Billion? They had 250 Billion in foreclosure some weeks ago, and I think there was a more recent post that it had gone up to 300billion (give or take).</p>

<p>Could I be off by 2 orders of magnitude.</p>
 
Probably. $3B isn't much for CFC. Their assets and liabilities are both over $200B per the latest quarterly data posted on Yahoo.
 
<p>Bank of America's Countrywide Deal Loses $858 Million (Update1) </p>

<p>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axrmKcGAgFuk&refer=home</p>
 
That just goes to show you how blind and ignorant these banks are. If B of A had any inkling of how bad this would get, they wouldn't have given a cent to Countrywide. If I was a B of A stockholder I'd be crying bloody murder.
 
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